Polls: Indigenous voice, leadership approval, skills shortages (open thread)

Strong support in principle for an Indigenous voice to parliament; a largely positive response to the Jobs Summit from those who noticed it; and no sign of the sheen coming off Anthony Albanese.

Time for a new open thread post, though I don’t have a whole lot to hang one off. There’s always US pollster Morning Consult’s tracking poll on approval of Anthony Albanese, which continues to record no significant change since June, with Albanese currently on 60% approval and 27% disapproval. This gives him the third best result of 22 international leaders being followed by the pollster, behind India’s Nahendra Modi and Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

There are also two new sets of supplemental results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll in the Age/Herald:

• A series of questions on outcomes from the Jobs Summit published on Saturday had favourable results for multi-employer bargaining, more TAFE places and allowing older Australians to earn more before losing the aged pension, but only 34% in favour of the increased migration intake, with 33% opposed. Only 24% rated themselves “definitely aware” of the recent Jobs Summit, compared with 38% for “vaguely aware” and 38% for unaware. Thirty-six per cent agreed it had achieved its (non-political) objectives compared with 19% who disagreed and 46% who were either undecided or neutral.

• The Age/Herald had a further result yesterday showing a 64-36 break in favour of a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice, evidently based on a forced response. Clear majorities were recorded in all states, and while there is no reason to be dubious about this, the Tasmanian sample especially would obviously have been exceedingly small.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,553 comments on “Polls: Indigenous voice, leadership approval, skills shortages (open thread)”

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  1. Putin is facing another challenging conundrum. By enforcing ‘electoral annexation’ of certain areas of Ukraine, he has created the risk of subsequently losing them (ie: Lyman). Each of these small losses of what is now supposedly Russian territory places Putin at risk in the eyes of his nation and his allies and supporters because losses become disproportionately magnified and difficult to defend and justify. Putin is creating a rod for his own back.

    When these areas were considered Ukraine, Russian withdrawals could simply be explained away as tactical movements. The loss of supposedly Russian territory however is an entirely different matter as viewed by the media and the public. It significantly raises the stakes for Putin.

    This would explain the comments that “ The annexation claims were so muddled that Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, found himself forced to acknowledge on Monday that Russia’s borders — as the Russian government newly defines them — remained in flux. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, in terms of the borders, we’re going to continue to consult with the population of these regions,” Mr. Peskov said in his regular conference call with reporters. “We’re going to continue to consult with the people who live in these regions.”



  2. @socrates, late last night:

    “ For the made in Australia version if we went with the French SSNs, how long would it take to get one built locally? I think we already have the answer. The French already estimated it back in the bidding phase.

    Reporting at the time confirmed that the French offered Australia (Suffren) SSNs back in 2015 but Abbott knocked them back. So we contracted diesels. How long would French SSNs have taken? Not short – 15 years. That would be 2037 starting again now. But note that is still faster than the UK or US delivery timetables.”


    Sorry for the late response. Only checking in with bludger now.

    Yep. 15 years for the first boat to be sea worthy from a locally built French design sounds about right. I agree with you that this is likely to be quicker than either AUKUS option if we contract with either BAE or Electric Boat to be a prime contractor and responsible for recruiting and training a local workforce – and the installation of the necessary plant and equipment, but I’m prepared to assume that an AUKUS project might come back with a seaworthy locally build SSN within 20 years.

    But here is ‘the kicker’ that favours the French: they have two build slots in Cherbourg available for French built subs that will open up between late 2024 and 2027. They have got their Suffren built timeline down to 8 years now, so before any Aussie built boats were ready for sea trials in 2037/8, we would already have two French built examples in service (probably with the first commissioning service in 2035).

    In sum, within 20 years we could have a replacement fleet of six French SSNs, whereas we would struggle to have three AUKUS examples by then.

    As to the configuration of the subs, I’d recommend the same configuration of the Suffren (so 24 heavy weapons), but with Lockheed Martin combat system (which has already been designed for the sister Attack class AND installed by ASC into the Collins, so that shouldn’t slow down the manufacturing process) for the first four boats (ie. the two French build ones and the first two Australian built ones) with the next 7-8 years spent on perfecting the design for a ‘Block 2’ variant which would have a VL module (and which would hence go into production from 2031/2 in Osbourne at a drum beat of one hull laid down every two years).

    Anyhoo, I doubt this will happen. Bloody mindedness and Marles’ fascination with american military kit will see us … stuck. … I note that Biden’s Defense Sec Austin gave Marles a personal tour of a Virginia Block V over the weekend. Facepalm.

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