Time for a new open thread post, though I don’t have a whole lot to hang one off. There’s always US pollster Morning Consult’s tracking poll on approval of Anthony Albanese, which continues to record no significant change since June, with Albanese currently on 60% approval and 27% disapproval. This gives him the third best result of 22 international leaders being followed by the pollster, behind India’s Nahendra Modi and Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
There are also two new sets of supplemental results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll in the Age/Herald:
• A series of questions on outcomes from the Jobs Summit published on Saturday had favourable results for multi-employer bargaining, more TAFE places and allowing older Australians to earn more before losing the aged pension, but only 34% in favour of the increased migration intake, with 33% opposed. Only 24% rated themselves “definitely aware” of the recent Jobs Summit, compared with 38% for “vaguely aware” and 38% for unaware. Thirty-six per cent agreed it had achieved its (non-political) objectives compared with 19% who disagreed and 46% who were either undecided or neutral.
• The Age/Herald had a further result yesterday showing a 64-36 break in favour of a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice, evidently based on a forced response. Clear majorities were recorded in all states, and while there is no reason to be dubious about this, the Tasmanian sample especially would obviously have been exceedingly small.
Matt Guy and Georgie Crozier at todays trainwreck announcement.
https://twitter.com/SquizzSTK/status/1576843745764704256
Regarding the S3 tax cuts, one of the women on Insiders last Sunday said she was fairly confident that the issue will be addressed in this month’s budget. She said there was a lot of talk going on behind the scenes about ‘changing’ the legislation but not going the whole hog and scrapping it.
I guess we’ll know soon enough whether she was right or not.
I wondered about this around 35 years ago when I visited the mine site…
It is going to cost a motsa to remediate…
The profits are gone…
The capex is sunk…
Time to bite the bullet… or time to do a corporate cut-and-run?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/03/rio-tinto-calls-for-board-resignation-over-kakadu-uranium-site-clean-up
Some stats on the Optus hack:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/03/optus-commissions-independent-review-of-data-breach
“ Regarding the S3 tax cuts, one of the women on Insiders last Sunday said she was fairly confident that the issue will be addressed in this month’s budget. She said there was a lot of talk going on behind the scenes about ‘changing’ the legislation but not going the whole hog and scrapping it.
I guess we’ll know soon enough whether she was right or not.”
_______
I think that was PK.
If she’s right I’m hoping that Chalmers is astute enough to bring forward the modified cuts by a year: that may take the sting out of the ‘broken promise’ campaign that will surely follow.
For mine a simple modified S3 ‘fix’ would be to leave the last threshold (the 45% rate) at $180K, cut the 37% rate to 35%, but leave the threshold at the current $120K. The other S3 changes should stay the same, leaving the rate structure as follows:
0 – $18.6K – zero
$18.6K – $45K – 19%
$45K – $120K – 30%
$120K-$180K – 35%
$180K+ – 45%
If we are really going for broke on broken promises then the Government could have a big crack cracking down on all those tax expenditure measures that date from the Howard – and then Hockey eras. THIS – not the headline rate of tax is the main game for tax reform. It always has been. Perhaps as a further bribe, a reduction in the 45% rate to say 42% could be added as a sweetener to get some much needed reforms in that space through.
The Victorian Greens are promising to build 200,000 homes.
Is that a subset of the million homes their Fed Greens counterparts promised in the last fed election?
What?
200,000@, say, $500,000 = $100,000,000,000.
Aping their China comrades’ property bubble?
No doubt there will be explanations about how, using magic money, nobody will notice the actual financial implications of this, of a rental freeze, of the government setting interest rates, of the government setting wages, of killing the almond, cattle, sheep, uranium, gas, coal, oil, cotton, rice and olive industries.
Can’t get a tradie for love nor money…
But can buy me love?
Andrew_Earlwood says:
For mine a simple modified S3 ‘fix’ would be to leave the last threshold (the 45% rate) at $180K, cut the 37% rate to 35%, but leave the threshold at the current $120K. The other S3 changes should stay the same, leaving the rate structure as follows:
0 – $18.6K – zero
$18.6K – $45K – 19%
$45K – $120K – 30%
$120K-$180K – 35%
$180K+ – 45%
__________
I would take that but would prefer:
0 – $18.6K – zero
$18.6K – $45K – 19%
$45K – $100K – 30%
$100K-$180K – 35%
$180K+ – 45%
Why not raise the taxable threshold?
That gives everyone a tax break.
Truss….” This lady IS for turning”
“It is clear that the abolition of the 45p tax rate has become a distraction from our overriding mission to tackle the challenges facing our country,” Kwarteng said in a statement.
Britain’s Prime Minister Liz Truss attends the opening day of the annual Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham on Sunday.
“As a result, I’m announcing we are not proceeding with the abolition of the 45p tax rate. We get it, and we have listened.”
Truss gone by christmas
‘Tory donor criticises tax U-turn, saying it’s wrong being governed by media reaction ‘which is not necessarily rational’ .. On the Today programme Alasdair Locke, a leading business figure and major Conservative party donor, said that he did not approve of the decision to scrap the abolition of the 45% top rate of tax’
(Grauniad)
Watch your back Liz 🙂
The Age drags in the “Lifestyle Editor” to essentially ridicule the Victorian voters. What happened to the “Political Editor” or are they now promoting boutique furniture stores and house decor consultants?
Truss’ role model … seems she was too delusional.
“ I would take that but would prefer:
0 – $18.6K – zero
$18.6K – $45K – 19%
$45K – $100K – 30%
$100K-$180K – 35%
$180K+ – 45%”
______
Nath, the Tories have already debauched the 37% rate by lifting the threshold to $120K. dropping it down to $100K NOW really would be electoral suicide for labor (even with the 2% cut to the rate sweetener). But I guess, that’s actually your point. Isn’t it?
Ray (UK) says:
Monday, October 3, 2022 at 8:45 pm
‘Tory donor criticises tax U-turn, saying it’s wrong being governed by media reaction ‘which is not necessarily rational’ .. On the Today programme Alasdair Locke, a leading business figure and major Conservative party donor, said that he did not approve of the decision to scrap the abolition of the 45% top rate of tax’
(Grauniad)
Watch your back Liz
中华人民共和国
A winter of discontent is brewing in the Old Dart.
Upnorth @ #2514 Monday, October 3rd, 2022 – 10:49 am
The Tories are probably hoping for a Winter of Discontent a la 1979
Ray (UK) says:
Monday, October 3, 2022 at 8:53 pm
Upnorth @ #2514 Monday, October 3rd, 2022 – 10:49 am
Ray (UK) says:
Monday, October 3, 2022 at 8:45 pm
‘Tory donor criticises tax U-turn, saying it’s wrong being governed by media reaction ‘which is not necessarily rational’ .. On the Today programme Alasdair Locke, a leading business figure and major Conservative party donor, said that he did not approve of the decision to scrap the abolition of the 45% top rate of tax’
(Grauniad)
Watch your back Liz
中华人民共和国
A winter of discontent is brewing in the Old Dart.
The Tories are probably hoping for a Winter of Discontent a la 1979
____________
Can you exploit a Winter of Discontent of you’re the govt responsible for it? (Labour was in 1978/79)…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_Discontent
Mountebank Scotland @mountebank_scot
This is incredibly unpatriotic it was the queen’s dying wish that the pound be buried with her
Kwasi Kwarteng @KwasiKwarteng
We get it, and we have listened.
nath,
I would change it so if i could.
0 – $58K – zero
$58K – $100K – 30%
$100K-$180K – 35%
$180K+ – 47%
The big change I would make is to alter the deduction rules so you can’t minimize your tax below those thresholds. no offsets, no escape. It’d be a leg up for the working poor and be a progressive tax for everyone else.
From the Hun (as the choke on their cornflakes):
The big difference between now and the winter of discontent is the Tories are in power now. If there are strikes and chaos it is happening on their watch and that will be poisonous for them.
I did say that Truss was thick as a brick back when the contest started. I formed this opinion when Putin ran rings around her in Feb when she went to Moscow to try to get the Russians not to invade Ukraine as Foreign Sec, which is the first time I recall seeing her. She just looked out of her depth then and then she gets the gig as PM.
I can’t to see how they can replace her yet, but if things keep going this badly, it will be before Christmas. George Canning holds the record for the shortest term as PM when he upped and died 119 days in his term in 1827 – for Truss to beat this she needs to be out by January 9.
Kwasi Kwarteng getting it stuffed up him.. politely
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1576846697862664192?s=20
citizen says:
Monday, October 3, 2022 at 9:18 pm
From the Hun (as the choke on their cornflakes):
EXCLUSIVE State Election
‘Wheels falling off’ Liberals’ election campaign
Victorian Liberals’ elections campaign is again under a cloud with a string of senior staff sacked in a major bloodletting ahead of November’s poll.
中华人民共和国
LOL Taylormade
The Australian has a new ‘Freedom Boy’ 😆
.
Tweet See new Tweets
Conversation Martin Pakula@MartinPakulaMP
Ladies and gentleman. I present to you, a brave hero of the revolution.
Quote Tweet Adam Creighton@Adam_Creighton
·
9h
Just cancelled a Dr’s appointment because of mask requirement, almost 950 days into the pandemic, after everyone vaxed, multiple times.
Too humiliating.
Can’t be intelligent Dr if actually believe the propaganda.
1:48 pm · 3 Oct 2022
·Twitter for iPhone
https://twitter.com/MartinPakulaMP/status/1576811513385361409?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1576814317499867136%7Ctwgr%5E2e42b28dcd52127a47d9dfebe20cc70273089cb5%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpbxmastragics.com%2F2022%2F09%2F19%2F20-ways-trump-is-copying-hitlers-early-rhetoric-and-policies%2Fcomment-page-3%2Fcomments
More truth telling on the asinine notion of EV Utes.
https://youtu.be/J1laP9eAwtg
CPAC says Putin annexed Ukraine – occupied territories in a tweet. (They are completely demented to put it mildly)
https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/1576031268453728256?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Nath, the Tories have already debauched the 37% rate by lifting the threshold to $120K. dropping it down to $100K NOW really would be electoral suicide for labor (even with the 2% cut to the rate sweetener). But I guess, that’s actually your point. Isn’t it?
______________
My point is that I would go further, but I would accept what you proposed. Maybe your proposal is a plot to get Labor to commit electoral suicide. Who knows.
south says:
Monday, October 3, 2022 at 9:11 pm
nath,
I would change it so if i could.
0 – $58K – zero
$58K – $100K – 30%
$100K-$180K – 35%
$180K+ – 47%
The big change I would make is to alter the deduction rules so you can’t minimize your tax below those thresholds. no offsets, no escape. It’d be a leg up for the working poor and be a progressive tax for everyone else.
___________
Sounds good to me.
”
porotisays:
Monday, October 3, 2022 at 9:45 pm
The Australian has a new ‘Freedom Boy’
”
poroti
When Tony Abbott used the phrase “Sh*t happens ” what he meant was that bad things happen occasionally.
But it now appears “Sh*t happens” on Tory side quite regularly. Now they don’t even try to hide their true feelings. Everyone is a free to say anything. Look at Australia CPAC. Their true feelings are revealed in full glare.
Of course The Age got the Lifestyle Editor to write that hit piece on Dan Andrews. He’s probably the biggest viper at the paper and he’s used to writing something up out of nothing.
Good to see everyone on board with me now about altering the Stage 3 tax cuts instead of scrapping them. Night all. 🙂
C@tmommasays:
Monday, October 3, 2022 at 9:56 pm
Of course The Age got the Lifestyle Editor to write that hit piece on Dan Andrews. He’s probably the biggest viper at the paper and he’s used to writing something up out of nothing.
_____________________
Not a bad article that one. Name one thing that isn’t true.
I bet you can’t.
Ven says:
Monday, October 3, 2022 at 9:45 pm
CPAC says Putin annexed Ukraine – occupied territories in a tweet. (They are completely demented to put it mildly)
————-
The Kremlin is not sure what they have “annexed”. The so-called annexures were just pantomime.
……..
llia Ponomarenko @IAPonomarenko
Russians still have no idea where their newly proclaimed “state border” in the occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia regions is. And Putin’s mouth Peskov says the Kremlin will continue “consulting” with local civilians to define the new “state borderline” at some point.
And there will be no new “referenda” to define what officially qualifies now as “sovereign Russian territory” in Ukraine and what does not.
Taylormade says:
Monday, October 3, 2022 at 10:06 pm
C@tmommasays:
Monday, October 3, 2022 at 9:56 pm
Of course The Age got the Lifestyle Editor to write that hit piece on Dan Andrews. He’s probably the biggest viper at the paper and he’s used to writing something up out of nothing.
_____________________
Not a bad article that one. Name one thing that isn’t true.
I bet you can’t.
中华人民共和国
LOL Taylormade
Rakali at 10.12 pm
Putin’s elite has no idea about key trends in Russian society. Don’t trouble them with distant matters like finer points of Ukrainian geography. For Russian society see:
https://russiandissent.substack.com/p/a-partial-catastrophe (Kagarlitsky Oct 2)
“At the moment, regarding mobilization, it is only clear that nothing is clear. And this is not about ordinary citizens, but about politicians and administrators who rule the country. Neither the real scale of the mobilization measures, nor the ways in which they will be carried out, are clear to either civilian officials or the military, or, most likely, to Putin himself. …
The collective consciousness of Russians is already well trained to understand: there is no point in believing the comforting promises of those in power. They say that the mobilization is partial, that students will not be called up, that laws and regulations will be observed. But the same people told us a week before the announcement of mobilization that there was no possibility of such a decision.”
‘Make cannabis Class A drug, say Conservative police commissioners’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63115171
Sceptic @ Monday, October 3, 2022 at 8:44 pm
“Truss gone by christmas”
Truss a Christmas turkey?
It is informative to note that senior “Liberal” figures are quite at home at CPAC, a conference of Far-Right activists. It’s like senior Labor figures attending a conference of Communists. Imagine the furore if that happened.
Steve777 @ Monday, October 3, 2022 at 10:40 pm
They are free(dom) radicals.
AE
Good evening. Not sure if you saw my earlier post at 6pm today?
One of the design engineers in the French Barracuda SSN program now lectures at Adelaide Uni! His webpage is a useful source of info.
Griff: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yqORlmC35k
AE
When AUKUS was first announced I was shocked (I had friends here working on the project) and set out to read more on the topic of SSNs and form a view on whether Australia getting SSNs made sense. I concluded some time ago that the answer was yes (we do need SSNs). But that doesn’t mean AUKUS made sense.
I preferred the UK Astutes to the USA Virginias for the sake of Australia’s budget and Adelaide employment. Of course now we know we won’t quickly be getting either. That leaves distant options signing up to the next UK class (SSNR) or Virginia Block IV+ after 2040. 18 years! Both are too late to safely replace the Collins class.
We both agree that the French Suffren SSN was unfairly dismissed from consideration on NNPT grounds (no problem) and sovereignty grounds (no worse than UK option; better than US option). That leaves timing and employment.
My post earlier today dealt with Adelaide and ASC employment. In short, if we make an immediate commitment, to local (ASC) employment, the problem takes care of itself. The sooner we start employing people, the sooner we gain capability.
But what about timing? For interim boats there appears to be no UK or US solution. Albo and Marles need to ask if we can get either 2 or 3 leased or sold French made SSNs, or 3 or 4 German made Type 218SGs.
For the made in Australia version if we went with the French SSNs, how long would it take to get one built locally? I think we already have the answer. The French already estimated it back in the bidding phase.
Reporting at the time confirmed that the French offered Australia (Suffren) SSNs back in 2015 but Abbott knocked them back. So we contracted diesels. How long would French SSNs have taken? Not short – 15 years. That would be 2037 starting again now. But note that is still faster than the UK or US delivery timetables. See
https://www.afr.com/politics/australia-could-have-nuclear-submarines-within-15-years-under-french-barracuda-option-20150213-13dnw8
This discussion at the time kickstarted Jay Weatherall’s inquiry into a nuclear waste disposal industry in SA. I worked on it, and it found the proposal was uneconomic. That was correct – if Australia was not building SSNs and only needed to store medical waste. But add SSNs and that changes too. Technically a nuclear waste disposal industry in SA was entirely feasible. The geology is perfect for stable disposal.
In short, I can see why the USN wants to have SSN maintenance facilities in Australia. That makes sense. But ditching the French sub for the UK one was the greatest setup in Australian contracting history.
So where does this leave AUKUS? Rhetorically stick to it and get the missiles. But add the French and build French SSNs. Dump the US uK SSN
“More truth telling on the asinine notion of EV Utes.”
Um what? This has got to be the stupidest post on pollbludger ever. The idea of EV utes is extremely stupid or foolish. Whether they are better or worse than ICE utes, they are going to have to happen, like yesterday. Either that or we ban utes. It isn’t complex I don’t understand how you get something so simple like this so very wrong. Well BW would but …
Ulrich Speck
@ulrichspeck
Europe should at least do twice as much as the US for Ukraine. At least.
The European peace order is at stake, not so much American security.
And Europe has every interest not to provide the foundations for another Trump in the US complaining about unfair burden-sharing.
https://twitter.com/ulrichspeck/status/1576521485014822912?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1576521733636358144%7Ctwgr%5E149560b829487bb1907b2b1b59f7da65cac71513%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2022%2F10%2F3%2F2126555%2F-Abbreviated-Pundit-Roundup-The-lure-of-the-likely-voter
Activist Sacheen Littlefeather, who declined Marlon Brando’s 1973 The Godfather Best Actor Oscar, dies
https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/101497204?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16648019488598&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Famp.abc.net.au%2Farticle%2F101497204%23amp_tf%3DFrom%2520%25251%2524s%26aoh%3D16648019488598%26csi%3D0%26referrer%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com
“She was the first Native American woman to step onto the Academy Awards stage when she declined Brando’s Oscar.
Wearing a buckskin dress and moccasins, she said Brando could not accept the award because of “the treatment of American Indians today by the film industry”.
Some in the audience booed her.
Littlefeather later said veteran Western star John Wayne had to be restrained from physically assaulting her.”
Alaska US HOR, US Senate and Governor poll
https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1575901588723728386?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1575901588723728386%7Ctwgr%5Eef6ac1da12d837a37f6c4f5c92b9a8da3fd52e74%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2022%2F10%2F3%2F2126555%2F-Abbreviated-Pundit-Roundup-The-lure-of-the-likely-voter
Dandy Murray-Honeydew @ Monday, October 3, 2022 at 11:13 pm
10 points! 🙂
WeWantPaul, I think you are wrong in saying “Whether they are better or worse than ICE utes, they are going to have to happen, like yesterday.” I would put heavy haulage vehicles in the same category as utes that are required for work, and in particular outside urban areas.
I agree that global warming must be mitigated, but banning ICE utes and heavy haulage vehicles will just be a gift to climate change deniers and the Mat Canavan branch of the National Party. The last thing this country needs is the conservative and bogan vote giving us another government like the last one.
The fact is, todays vehicle battery technology does require considerable charge times beyond what is reasonable in remote areas in particular. If much faster charging is not possible then ICE vehicles will be required with carbon offsets. You can’t expect a traveller traversing the Nullabor for example spending more time connected to an EV charger than actually driving.
Overstated, especially in relation to charging times.
Current EV utes need to improve by about 50% to reach parity with what an ICE will do while towing. Seems like a big ask, however from 2010 to 2020 the volumetric energy density of lithium battery packs (as in, Wh/liter) increased fivefold. It’s been doubling approximately every 3 years. By 2025 the argument will be flipped on its head and people will be wondering why anyone would waste time with an inferior-range ICE.
Besides, the reality of towing (or travelling) long distances is that after 400-500kms all the humans involved generally need a bit of a break too. If it takes 30 minutes instead of 5 to refuel/recharge the vehicle it doesn’t make much difference. If even one person wants to grab a snack you’re spending the 30 minutes anyways. All the EV needs to do is get its range up to that level and the entire discussion becomes moot.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
Labour leads by 28%, largest lead for ANY party that we’ve recorded.
Westminster Voting Intention (2 Oct):
Labour 52% (+6)
Conservative 24% (-5)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-3)
Green 5% (+1)
SNP 5% (+2)
Reform UK 3% (-1)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 28-29 Sept
We’ve all been waiting for Savanta ..
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 50% (+7)
CON: 25% (-4)
LDM: 11% (-1)
GRN: 3% (-1)
SNP: 3% (-2)
Via @SavantaComRes
30 Sep – 2 Oct, Changes w/ 23-25 Sep