Polls: Indigenous voice, leadership approval, skills shortages (open thread)

Strong support in principle for an Indigenous voice to parliament; a largely positive response to the Jobs Summit from those who noticed it; and no sign of the sheen coming off Anthony Albanese.

Time for a new open thread post, though I don’t have a whole lot to hang one off. There’s always US pollster Morning Consult’s tracking poll on approval of Anthony Albanese, which continues to record no significant change since June, with Albanese currently on 60% approval and 27% disapproval. This gives him the third best result of 22 international leaders being followed by the pollster, behind India’s Nahendra Modi and Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

There are also two new sets of supplemental results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll in the Age/Herald:

• A series of questions on outcomes from the Jobs Summit published on Saturday had favourable results for multi-employer bargaining, more TAFE places and allowing older Australians to earn more before losing the aged pension, but only 34% in favour of the increased migration intake, with 33% opposed. Only 24% rated themselves “definitely aware” of the recent Jobs Summit, compared with 38% for “vaguely aware” and 38% for unaware. Thirty-six per cent agreed it had achieved its (non-political) objectives compared with 19% who disagreed and 46% who were either undecided or neutral.

• The Age/Herald had a further result yesterday showing a 64-36 break in favour of a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice, evidently based on a forced response. Clear majorities were recorded in all states, and while there is no reason to be dubious about this, the Tasmanian sample especially would obviously have been exceedingly small.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,553 comments on “Polls: Indigenous voice, leadership approval, skills shortages (open thread)”

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  1. So a cathrine deves culture war worked out so well the liberals will most likely continue this approach duttons statements abbout the subberbs must be there stratigy triy to wipe out the modderits like matt kean and go full trump there most succesful leader apart from abott largily helped buy the media was turnbull

  2. Muskiempsays:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 11:59 am
    The Penrith Panthers had the best season ever by any Rugby League team. They won the Harold Mathews (under 16s), Jersey Flegg (under 21s), the NSW State Cup then the State Cup Championship v Nth Qld Devils. The did not have a team in the NRLW, that was won by Newcastle Nights v Parramatta.
    The Panthers territory is from Blacktown to the East, Katoomba in the West, Windsor/Windsor Rd to the North and Badgery Ck to the South. So we have Blacktown/Mt Druitt/St Marys/ Riverstone-Windsor and The Blue Mntns (Labor) and the rest (LNP).
    I am a lifelong Eels supporter, my three sons played in the Panthers area as that is where we lived. Of course, that makes my second team the Panthers, so although a little disappointed I was able to appreciate the second half and appreciate what a great game it was.
    As far as the TV viewers, it was sour grapes by the Qlders and Vics as they missed a great game it was, it was a tough but clean game.
    ________________________________________
    It isn’t just on-field where the Panthers are winning…
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cashed-up-panthers-getting-taxpayer-millions-doesn-t-add-up-20220624-p5awbe.html
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/07/out-of-left-field-why-penriths-300m-stadium-upgrade-was-a-surprising-choice

  3. ”
    porotisays:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 1:32 pm
    As this song verse goes………………..

    The atom bomb fell just the other day,
    The H-Bomb fell in the very same way;
    Russia went, England went, and then the U.S.A.
    The human race was finished without a chance to pray.

    But nath came back the very next day,
    nath came back, we thought he was a goner
    But nath came back; he just couldn’t stay away.
    Away, away, yea, yea, yea
    ”

    LOL poroti.

  8. Georgie Crozier hasn’t even bothered to consult.

    Richard Willingham
    @rwillingham
    Shadow Health Minister Georgie Crozier says she hasn’t consulted any of the five hospitals that the Opposition are planning to trial PSOs working in major hospitals.

  9. Late Riser @ Monday, October 3, 2022 at 3:43 pm

    Well, to paraphrase Shadow Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews, I am very concerned as well. I am concerned about the potential for some of them to be radicalised. And they are unlikely to have been unradicalised now that they are out of Government.

    We are talking about Federal Liberal MPs aren’t we? 😉

  11. Late Riser says:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 3:43 pm

    https://twitter.com/Qldaah/status/1576768639801311232
    Shadow Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews is concerned about the women and children. She’s concerned they may have become dangerous after spending all this time over there. She reckons, leave ’em there.

    Where do you even start with that mind set?
    ____________________________________________________________
    It gladdened my heart to hear the news last night, that the Australian government would rescue these women and their children stranded in an IS camp in Syria.
    The previous government actually did rescue eight of these stranded Australians in 2019, so why on earth didn’t they work to extricate the rest? Like Karen Andrews, I’m worried some of these women and children might be radicalised. All the more reason to get them back to Australia, where they can be reeducated (in the proper sense of the term) and not allowed to grow up in a refugee camp, suffused with hate for their country because it abandoned them.
    I would have thought this was obvious, quite apart from Australia’s moral obligation to look after its citizens, wherever they might be.
    Did the previous government think there was electoral gain in keeping these “dangerous terrorists” in degrading exile? Or did too many in the government just have a genuine animus towards them, so much so they were prepared to perpetuate their misery?
    Whatever the reason, I am glad these unlucky Australians are coming home, even if some may face anti-terrorism charges. It is another reason to celebrate the election of a government committed to human rights and good policy.

  13. Sounds like Labor has got this about right. For the Libs “The Porridge is too hot”, for the Crossbench “The Porridge is too Cold” – for good Government “The Porridge is just right”.

    “The Coalition has called on a superior court judge to oversee the National Anti-Corruption Commission, saying Labor’s “exceptional circumstances” threshold for public hearings does not go far enough to safeguard against reputational damage.

    “That (exceptional circumstances), for us, is a baseline,” opposition attorney-general Julian Leeser told Sky News on Monday.

    “Going forward, we want to see even further protections in relation to people who may be appearing before the corruption commission so far as public hearings are concerned.

    “We believe that a judicial officer should determine whether a public hearing proceeds… that is because the commissioner at the end of the day will have an interest in having a public hearing because they want to justify the fact that they’ve got these powers.”

    Under Labor’s model, the decision to hold public hearings would lie with the anti-corruption commissioner.

    Some members of the crossbench have claimed “exceptional circumstances” is too high a threshold, and ought to be amended. ”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/politicsnow-australia-backs-additional-sanctions-against-russia-over-ukraine-annexations/live-coverage/12a747407d6e4f85bab7a09de86434c9#74498

  14. Twenty two reasons why Labor is not Same Old, Same Old (as lied about by the Greens for a decade):

    1. Moves afoot to rescue 20 Australian women and around 40 children from a Turkish internment camp.
    2. Jayne Jagot appointed to Australia’s High Court, creating first majority-female bench.
    3. Ms Falkingham will be the first permanent female Chief Executive of the NDIA.
    4. Federal Labor has appointed three eminently well qualified women to the Climate Council. This offsets the undue representation of businessmen on the Council.
    5. Federal Indigenous Affairs Minister Burney supports the development of a separate National Strategy to Address Violence Against Indigenous Women. The latter will be heavily involved in the design of the Strategy.
    6. The Victorian government on Sunday announced it would spend $270 million to recruit and train thousands of new nurses and midwives under the scheme.
    7. Labor has more female MPs than male MPs. (The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments were not within a bull’s roar of this achievement.)
    8. Labor is fully committed to implementing all the Jenkins Report recommendations. (The Morrison Government implemented a view recommendations but basically sat on the vast majority of the Report’s recommendations.)
    9. High levels of women in the ministry. (Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments had far, far fewer women in the ministry).
    10. Labor gave a direction to the Fair Work Commission to specifically take into account the gender pay gap along with power to make gender specific determinations to close the gap. (The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments had one universal ambitions: to damp down any real wage growth and showed zero interest in closing the gender pay gap.)
    11. Labor intervened directly in the minimum wage decision which disproportionately benefits the lowest paid workers: women. (Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison did not do this.)
    12. In recent departmental secretary appointments: Labor appointed three out of the four women. (Morrison’s last five secretarial appointments in 2019 involved a net loss of three women.)
    13. Labor is setting the tone by promising to make boards, such as the Reserve Bank Board more representative.
    14. Three Labor women ministers to lead aspects of the skills and jobs summit that relate to women’s participation, women upskilling and closing the wages gap.
    15. Labor has avoided school holidays for sitting days.
    16. Labor has instituted humane sitting hours on sitting days.
    17. Morrison Government sat on the Report on the National Stakeholder Consultation for a Ten Year Domestic Violence Plan. Labor has released the Report with expedition.
    18. Labor introduces paid domestic violence leave legislation
    19. Ten days domestic violence leave for casual workers.
    20. Submission to the Fair Work Commission on pay in the Aged Care industry. Four out of five workers in that industry are women.
    21. Moves to legislate on coercive control.Not one of those eleven were in place in the past nine years.
    22. Removes the ban on military and public service staff from engaging in certain “woke” charity, cultural and diversity events, imposed by former minister Peter Dutton last year.

  16. BK thanks for the Dawn Patrol.

    PageBoi says:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 7:21 am
    “Also many thanks to whoever it was that posted the link to the ABC article about the CIA. I had no idea that the coalition had appointed 2 people from the CIS to the RBA board, but even worse that the RBA is actually directly funding that organisation! The CIS is an extreme right neoliberal think tank, more or less the IPA without the culture wars. I haven’t had much faith in the RBA lately, and that revelation to me proves that it’s no longer working to the benefit of all Australians

    I would love to see someone like Richard Denniss from the Australia Institute put on the RBA board (and Sally McManus for good measure) , and then be a fly on the wall at the next RBA meeting!”
    ——————————————————————————————-

    I too was very concerned after reading this ABC article. There does appear to be evidence of very long term planning by these elements (Coalition supporters) to influence thinking and undermining Australian workers in the process. Mostly concerning however was the support by the RBA for these non-progressive Think Tanks and the subsequent influence of these groups on the RBA including serving on the board. I hope we here more about this and the impact it has had and shine more light on their activities.

  17. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 12:40 pm

    Alan Kohler writes about Morrison’s 2018 budget and Liz Trusses disastrous efforts, and says, “So let this be a lesson to you, Treasurer Jim Chalmers – cutting taxes for the rich with borrowed money is no longer the way to a global capitalist’s heart, especially when central banks are trying to slow things down; these days financial markets punish reckless ideology.”
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/10/03/tax-cuts-chalmers-alan-kohler/

    There is no greater test of Jim Chalmers’ credentials than that re the S3 tax cuts.

    What Labor needs and wants is its base to demand the repeal or significant amendment of this rotten legislation.

    That the partisans faithfully back the cuts, against their good judgement, is a frustration for Labor.

    Labor partisans be LOUD and give your leaders the message they actually want …!
    ____________

    Another of the 437 million gajillion “tests for Labor”!

  18. Cronus at 4:35 pm
    When the intertubes started hitting deadwood papers hard and Rupert sacked lots of journos the CIS, along with the IPA, were go to people for providing content for the editorial pages. Especially in his flagship paper The Australian.

  19. Late Riser says:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 3:43 pm

    https://twitter.com/Qldaah/status/1576768639801311232
    Shadow Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews is concerned about the women and children. She’s concerned they may have become dangerous after spending all this time over there. She reckons, leave ’em there.

    Where do you even start with that mind set?
    ____________

    Karen Andrews is concerned about many things, including a light rail extension. Karen can assure us her concern about the project, about which she had been silent until shortly before the election, has ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY NOTHING to do with the fact that she owns a property along the route.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-17/karen-andrews-light-rail-opposition-unrelated-to-investment/101073080

    Tragically for the nation, Karen’s electors returned her to Canberra, to continue to communicate her special blend of credibility.

  21. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 9:20 am
    Steve777,
    “It seems as though the Liberals still haven’t got the message that the electorate sent them at the election. They honestly think they are in America and that they can follow the Republican playbook back to power. Only thing is, Australia has compulsory preferential voting, Australia doesn’t have gerrymandering, though the way that The Nationals can win seats with such a low general percentage of general support compared to The Greens needs to be looked at but probably will never be, and also that so many positions in American civil society are elected and they aren’t in Australia, means that the fever dreams of people like Teena McQueen and Amanda Stoker at al, will thankfully never come to pass and the Liberals will remain in a relevance cul de sac politically. Also I note that McQueen and Stoker had no bad words to say about their new federal leader, Peter Dutton. Must mean, despite the glow up in The Australian, at heart Peter Dutton is an Ultra Conservative still.”
    ——————————————————————————————-
    C@T
    Like yourself and Steve777, I too think they are still mired in culture wars and perhaps always will be. The national interest and the concerns of the average person are never of concern to most of these Coalition types. They add nothing to our society.

  23. Sir Henry Parkes at 4.11

    …Did the previous government think there was electoral gain in keeping these “dangerous terrorists” in degrading exile?…
    ____________

    Yes. Worth pondering: the Coalition consider racist vilification an integral part of their campaign tool kit.

    It says things about the Coalition – and about what their polling might indicate about our fellow citizens.

    Ugh.

  24. Snappy Tom2 at 5:16 pm

    It says things about the Coalition – and about what their polling might indicate about our fellow citizens.

    Nothing new though. Howard made a successful career out of it. So as that Talking Heads song goes, same as it ever was, same as it ever was.

  25. Alph Zero.
    I now live in Queensland and don’t vote in NSW. However, it is typical of the LNP all over Australia. I do agree with those who are complaining it is currently a good ground to watch sport for both family and others

  27. poroti says:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 5:26 pm

    Snappy Tom2 at 5:16 pm

    It says things about the Coalition – and about what their polling might indicate about our fellow citizens.

    Nothing new though. Howard made a successful career out of it. So as that Talking Heads song goes, same as it ever was, same as it ever was.
    ____________

    I remember back in the 80s, Howard as Opposition Leader called for a ‘revision’ of the ‘composition’ of Australia’s migration intake. Piece of racist crap, JWH.

    Hawke was all over it and got Parliament to pass a motion confirming a non-racial approach to migration.

    At least one poll showed 57% of respondents supported Howard.

    Ugh.

  28. I just learned something: Ukraine has a “semi-presidential” form of govt – like, say France. Also Russia, but that’s not a positive example!

    “Semi-presidential” means the president (head of state) and prime minister (head of govt) both have real powers.

    In practical terms, “semi-presidential systems” make one of the two – usually the president – more powerful than the other.

    The president appoints the govt, which sometimes can’t begin functioning until it passes a confidence motion. The parliament can sack the govt.

    In France, the president has clear authority over national security and foreign affairs, the prime minister is a bit closer to our state premiers.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Politics

    I’m not sure a “semi-presidential” system can work in a federation like Australia. I also believe it would require quite a lot of Constitutional amendment, which could be difficult to prosecute in a referendum debate.

    If we must have a head of state, this is my favourite model.

    One bonus from Ukraine: they have a public holiday called Constitution Day. Perhaps we could replace Australia Day with Constitution Day and schedule that day for the enactment of republican amendments to the Constitution after a successful referendum.

  29. Cronus,

    Hope you are enjoying Milan, especially the moderate days. I am enjoying your posts, about weather, politics and culture.

    We are now back in Oz, having arrived just over a week ago, and trying to adjust to the cold dreary Sydney weather. Today has actually been quite nice – about 50% sunny.

    Lots of good things have happened in the last few months, but one that particularly impresses me is repatriating the women and children from those hell-hole camps in Syria. They are going to need a lot of assistance to transition from the trauma-induced mindset which which they have lived everyday (some for their whole lives), and so I very much hope this will be available (the initial noises are promising).

    So, much as I think Karen Andrews should be asked to billet a family so she can keep a close eye on them, they have suffered more than enough trauma already!!

  30. Snappy Tom at 5:36 pm
    Unfortunately Howard knew he was on a ‘winner’ there and kept on it. Remember the Coalition outrage over Labor stating Australia was part of Asia/Asian region. Somehow being an ‘Asian’ nation was the worstest thing in the world.

  31. Also, a big hello to C@t, Itza, Confessions, The Munz, Quasar, Yabba, Andrew Earlwood and the countless others (you know who you are, despite my expressive aphasia) who make this place such and interesting and vibrant forum.
    And of course, thanks BK for your Dawn Patrol. I would be lost navigating my way through the news, with my limited time, without it. And thanks also to Alpha Zero for the UK cartoons – another highlight!

  32. Here’s some notable current corporate bookmaker odds –
    Victorian State Election
    Coalition Majority
    11.00
    Coalition Minority
    21.00
    The end is nigh for Guy!

  33. Hola bludgers. It is a public holiday in Adelaide today so I have been catching up on some reading.

    I was at an engineering conference much of last week hosted by Flinders Uni. I have not had much of a chance to see what they have been doing there since before Covid. One striking addition was a significant element of defense engineering (research and education) being introduced in some areas.

    Similarly Adelaide Uni now runs a maritime architecture/warship design course within its engineering program, specialising in submarines. The lecturer Eric Fusil, is a French Australian who previously worked for Naval Group including on the Barracuda SSN program. Graduates are now starting to come out of these programs. This is in addition to the people already working at ASC.

    So on submarines, there are really two issues now:
    – finding an interim solution that can replace Collins within 10 years, not 20, and
    – starting work on the long term program so that the people and institutions who had already started careers and programs based on the promises made do not waste years of their live, and the nation does not once again waste the human capital it has been building.

    Incidentaly Fusil has some published papers that can be downloaded.

    This is a history of French submarine development.
    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Eric-Fusil/publication/338621578_A_CENTURY_OF_GROWING_STEALTH_IN_SUBMARINES/links/5e1ff23592851cafc3873a96/A-CENTURY-OF-GROWING-STEALTH-IN-SUBMARINES.pdf

    This discusses the challenges of submarine detection in shallow water
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338621573_Shallow_water_Submarine_optimizations_for_signatures_-_DCN_-_UDT_2005

    The more I research this topic, the more I am convinced that, if France supplied the reactors, ASC could build the French SSN design. This assumes more recruiting, training, infrastructure and support from Naval was commissioned and funded.

  38. It is now politically damaging for Labor if Chalmers does NOT announce the dumping of the S3 tax cuts in the October budget forward estimates.

  39. “Prachand”, India-Made Light Combat Helicopters Inducted

    https://www-ndtv-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.ndtv.com/india-news/indian-air-force-to-induct-indigenously-built-light-combat-helicopters-10-facts-3398566/amp/1?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16647810566813&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ndtv.com%2Findia-news%2Findian-air-force-to-induct-indigenously-built-light-combat-helicopters-10-facts-3398566

    From the article:
    While we have the American Apache chopper as well, which is larger than this and perhaps more capable, this fulfils a specific role, particularly in very high altitude operations where it can carry a significant payload. The design of the chopper is entirely Indian. The integration is Indian, and it fulfils an Indian requirement.

  40. @cronus

    At least the composition of the board forms part of the terms of reference for the RBA review Labor have initiated. If big business/banking and right wing neoliberals like the CIS can have a seat at the table, then why not civil society and progressive groups.

    I do hope that the ALP don’t just default to wanting union representation though (not that there’s anything at all wrong with unions, in fact to the contrary). Grattan, the Australia institute, ACOSS , or any number of progressive non business voices would be worthy. My only worry about union representation would be it plays into the coalition and Media’s whole unions are bad, and the ALP are just a tool of the unions schtick (which has no real basis in fact, but it’s sorta the vibe )

    As an aside, I can confirm that voices for Page is having its first in person get together soon to discuss a way forward to try and turn page Teal. Kevin Hogan hasn’t really covered himself in glory since coming to the shadow ministry, so hopefully we can be better organised and make up some ground before the next election

    I also note that councillor Tony Judge has put up his hand for the state seat of coffs Harbour. The nats Gurnesh Singh is actually not a wanker, and a decent local member despite his party affiliation, and I think will have incumbency and name recognition on his side, but Tony Judge is a thoroughly decent man, has done some excellent work on council and would have some name recognition, so although the odds would probably favour Gurnesh in the seat Tony is in with a reasonable shot. No strong independent has declared as yet so at this stage I’ll be voting for Tony come march

  41. Rex Douglas at 6:09 pm
    First we need a few headlines about financial shit hitting the fan in various parts of the globe. It’ll set the scene to sell the need for a repeal as being ‘forced upon them’ by a financial emergency/crisis rather than them reneging on a promise. The gas price/shortage in Europe this Winter may well provide the headlines.

  42. If they are going to anything about the Stage 3 tax cuts it will be announced in conjunction with other budget announcements on the 25th of October.

    That gives 22 more days of people to complain about them, so enjoy them.

  44. Greens demand…
    Teals demand…
    Greens call for…
    Teals demand…
    Liberals call for..
    Liberals demand…
    Liberals warn…
    Pressure is mounting on Labor to…
    Test for Labor…

    To date the only significant change in a Labor decision was the one extending the Covid payment. That one has just reached its end date. Inter alia, Labor realized that it was being fraudulently claimed by large numbers of individuals. Like the applications for flood relief. Like the applications for NDIS support.

    It turns out that fraud is not necessarily the sole perquisite of politicians.

  45. Mavis
    Player One:

    “I’m not sure you quite get the politics of the Sage 3 tax cuts. I think Labor’s plan is to hold out until the electorate obliges it to do the inevitable, evidence for which we’re already seeing.”
    ——————————————-
    Agreed, It seems so obvious to the rest of us, just let the pressure from all quarters and become so overwhelming that the inevitable vitriol from the Coalition will be drowned out and ignored. And there’s still two more years to let that pressure develop.

  46. south
    If Labor keeps the S3 cuts it will be for a reason. Not because it has an excuse.
    Voters cannot possibly be demanding integrity from political parties and then demanding that political parties break big election promises.
    The Greens and the Teals are essentially calling for Labor to break an election promise and to behave in a way that lacks integrity. These are the same two groups that warbled on and on and on about how you can’t trust the two majors.
    Nothing material has changed since the election so there is no valid reason for Labor to break its promise.
    What is thoroughly corrupt here is the Greens and the Teals calling repeatedly and loudly for Labor to break a promise.

  47. B.S. Fairman says:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 6:38 pm

    If they are going to anything about the Stage 3 tax cuts it will be announced in conjunction with other budget announcements on the 25th of October.

    That gives 22 more days of people to complain about them, so enjoy them.
    ____________

    These would be the tax cuts that don’t come into force until 2024? So, Labor doesn’t need to address this now, other than to keep Rex et al either happy (if Labor ditches S3), enraged (if Labor keeps S3) or both enraged and slightly confused (if Labor modifies S3 by removing the most inequitable elements)?

    Upon reflection, the rage will continue even if Labor ditches S3, because Labor failed to do it yesterday!

    Oh no, Labor fails one of the squillion tests set for it!

  48. Let’s say that the comrades finally lose control of China’s property bubble. Import demand for coal and for iron ore will collapse.
    The Australian economy will take a smashing hit which will do more to speed us to zero net 50 than anything else.
    Now THAT is a material change that would give rise to a reasonable decision to re-evaluate the S3 tax cut pledge.

  49. Socrates at 6 re Eric Fusil…

    Does Eric prefer FAUKUS or AUFUKUS…or…gasp!…did you fail to ask this most critical of questions!

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