7am Tuesday The right coalition won 237 of the 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, the left coalition 85, the Five Stars 52, centrists 21 and others five. In the Senate, the right coalition won 115 of the 200 seats, the left coalition 44, the Five Stars 28, centrists nine and others four. That gives the right coalition 59% of seats in the Chamber and 57.5% in the Senate.
Giorgia Meloni, the female leader of the Brothers of Italy, will be the first female Italian PM and the first far-right leader since Mussolini. While the Brothers will easily be the biggest party within the right coalition, they will depend on both the League and Forza Italia on confidence and legislative motions.
8:17pm As counting finishes in the FPTP seats, they’re being officially awarded to the winner. As the right is winning FPTP seats massively, they’re winning a big majority of seats awarded so far. The proportional seats won’t favour the right as much, but they’ll still win about 60% of seats in both houses. There’s still 0.4% left to count before we get final results.
1:58pm With over 90% reporting for the Senate, the right coalition has 44.2%, the left coalition 26.4%, the Five Stars 15.2% and the centrists 7.8%. Percentages are similar in the Chamber with 84% reporting.
11:37am At the 2018 election, the Five Stars won 32.2% in the Senate, the far-right League 17.6% and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy just 4.3%. Currently the Brothers are winning 26.5% in the Senate, the League 8.9% and Five Stars 15.0%.
10:56am With 51% counted in the Senate, the right leads by 43.6-27.4, with 14.8% Five Stars and 7.9% centrists. The Chamber count is well behind at 27%. The right is winning a landslide in the FPTP seats.
9:15am With 11% of the Senate vote counted, the right leads the left by 44-28 with 14% for the Five Star Movement and 8% centrists.
8:25am A Senate projection is that the right will win by 43% to 25% over the left with 17% for the Five Star Movement and 8% a centrist alliance. This would be an easy win for the right.
7:52am The Guardian’s live results looks good for following the results as they come in, though so far there’s been little vote counting.
7:11am Monday: The first Italian exit poll gives the right alliance 42%, the left alliance 28%, the Five Star Movement 16% and a centrist alliance 7%. This would be a majority for the right, but not a large one.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The Italian election is today, with polls closing at 7am Monday AEST (11pm Sunday in Italy). All of both the Italian parliament’s houses will be up for election: 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 200 in the Senate. Governments need the confidence of both houses. First past the post (FPTP) will be used to elect 37% of both houses, with the remainder allocated by proportional representation.
Unfortunately, Italy imposes a 15-day blackout on polls before an election, so the last polls were released on September 9. In these final polls, the right coalition was in the mid to high 40s, the left coalition mostly in the high 20s, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement at 12-15% and a centrist alliance at 5-8%. I dislike this blackout policy as we can’t know how accurate the polls are if they can’t poll in the final week.
The right coalition is composed of the far-right Brothers of Italy, far-right League, conservative Forza Italia and a small party, while the left coalition includes the centre-left Democrats and three small parties. The Brothers and League will win the large majority of seats within any right coalition.
Unless there’s a large swing back to the left during the 15-day poll blackout, the 37% of overall seats that are elected by FPTP will give the right coalition a clear overall majority in both houses. Giorgia Meloni, the female leader of the Brothers, is likely to be Italy’s next PM. If she wins, Meloni would be Italy’s first female PM and first far-right leader since Benito Mussolini.
The Guardian on Thursday had an article on how an Italian town that was once run by Communists is likely to vote for the far-right today. This relates to my theme that whites without a university education are increasingly voting for the right.
Brazilian presidential elections: October 2 and 30 (if necessary)
The first round of the Brazilian presidential election is next Sunday. If nobody wins at least 50%, a runoff between the top two first round candidates will be held October 30. The major contenders are the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula), who was president from 2003 to 2010.
The last five Brazilian polls have had Lula leading Bolsonaro by seven to 14 points in the first round. If the contest goes to the October 30 runoff, the polls give Lula an eight to 17 point lead.
Brazilian polls include undecided. Lula is currently in the mid 40s in the first round in most polls, but undecided is at 5-10%. If undecided were excluded, as most polls in Australia do, Lula would be in the high 40s and close to the 50% needed to win outright in the first round and avoid a runoff.
There is another left-wing candidate (Gomes) who has 6-7%. Lula may be able to squeeze Gomes’ voters enough to reach a first round majority. The campaign has been ugly with violent incidents, so there is an incentive to end it next week rather than drag it out for another four weeks.
As well as the presidential election, there are legislative elections next Sunday. All 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies will be elected by proportional representation, and 27 of the 81 senators (one per state) will be elected by FPTP. Many parties are currently represented.