Polls: Indigenous voice, leadership approval, skills shortages (open thread)

Strong support in principle for an Indigenous voice to parliament; a largely positive response to the Jobs Summit from those who noticed it; and no sign of the sheen coming off Anthony Albanese.

Time for a new open thread post, though I don’t have a whole lot to hang one off. There’s always US pollster Morning Consult’s tracking poll on approval of Anthony Albanese, which continues to record no significant change since June, with Albanese currently on 60% approval and 27% disapproval. This gives him the third best result of 22 international leaders being followed by the pollster, behind India’s Nahendra Modi and Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

There are also two new sets of supplemental results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll in the Age/Herald:

• A series of questions on outcomes from the Jobs Summit published on Saturday had favourable results for multi-employer bargaining, more TAFE places and allowing older Australians to earn more before losing the aged pension, but only 34% in favour of the increased migration intake, with 33% opposed. Only 24% rated themselves “definitely aware” of the recent Jobs Summit, compared with 38% for “vaguely aware” and 38% for unaware. Thirty-six per cent agreed it had achieved its (non-political) objectives compared with 19% who disagreed and 46% who were either undecided or neutral.

• The Age/Herald had a further result yesterday showing a 64-36 break in favour of a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice, evidently based on a forced response. Clear majorities were recorded in all states, and while there is no reason to be dubious about this, the Tasmanian sample especially would obviously have been exceedingly small.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,553 comments on “Polls: Indigenous voice, leadership approval, skills shortages (open thread)”

Comments Page 49 of 52
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  1. And thank you BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    Alpha Zero, having lived near Birmingham for a few years, I never came to grips with navigating Spaghetti Junction!

  2. “Will doubling down on conservative policy get them re-elected? Is there some ‘badge of honour’ in being a purist Tory?”

    The Tories in the UK…they are just complete Fwarkwits……but everybody has known that since they gave the UK Brexit.

    Been reading a little on that CPAC conference here. Seems that all the people who have been screwing up the Lib/Nats policy wise for the last decade are busy telling themselves that the election loss was NOT their fault and the Electorate got it wRONg and all would be well if everyone was just like them…….

    Blowing smoke up each others arses.

    Meanwhile, Albo’s ALP is getting on with doing the actual policy and governance thing. 🙂

    Spot the difference people. 🙂 🙂

  3. As happens every year, after the AFL grand final, the talk is all about having a night final like the NRL.
    Well last nights final game and entertainment is a reminder that it doesnt guarantee a better spectacle.

  4. imacca says:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 10:09 am

    “Will doubling down on conservative policy get them re-elected? Is there some ‘badge of honour’ in being a purist Tory?”
    ____________

    I am nervous about one electoral thing and one electoral thing only: the possibility the Coalition regain power because the electorate THINKS Labor’s done a bad job in some respect.

    As many of us recognise, Labor is held to a different standard in govt, so will be hammered in the media for any slip-up, whereas a Coalition govt (like, say, the NSW govt) gets a slap on the wrist at worst.

    The Right (Coalition+media mates) just need to convince enough voters Labor have stuffed up – and it doesn’t matter whether Labor actually stuffs up.

    Having said that, I think Albo’s leadership will help minimise perceived stuff-ups because 1) their won’t be a lot; and 2) when they happen, any acceptance of responsibility he offers is likely to be accepted because he is known to be genuine (remember his acceptance of responsibility for EconomicNumbersGate during week 1 of the campaign?)


  5. BKsays:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 10:01 am
    How can he start a difficult conversation when he wets in his pants at the sight of her?
    ___________
    Ven
    That can be taken in two ways.

    🙂

  6. Victoria says:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 10:11 am

    As happens every year, after the AFL grand final, the talk is all about having a night final like the NRL.
    Well last nights final game and entertainment is a reminder that it doesnt guarantee a better spectacle.
    ____________

    The comparison isn’t between AFL (daytime) and NRL (nighttime). Remember 2020…

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/oct/26/afl-tops-nrl-but-both-codes-enjoy-bumper-grand-final-tv-ratings

    The 2020 nighttime AFL gf rated about 30% higher than 2019’s daytime gf.

    I have no opinion about day vs night gfs. I’m damned sure advertisers have opinions, however.

  7. ” The Right (Coalition+media mates) just need to convince enough voters Labor have stuffed up – and it doesn’t matter whether Labor actually stuffs up.”

    The right-wing media a.k.a. the Noise Machine also get to decide what gets fed through the giant megaphones they control and what gets buried on page 13.

  8. Old Hat re art, Bludging and life…

    Thanks for your post. I agree that PB is a remarkable thing and am thankful to WB for tolerating us!

  9. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 10:06 am
    BK @ #2095 Monday, October 3rd, 2022 – 10:01 am

    How can he start a difficult conversation when he wets in his pants at the sight of her?
    ___________
    Ven
    That can be taken in two ways.
    Maybe he likes it both ways?
    中华人民共和国
    Yuck. I was just about to have my breakfast. Not happy Jan.

  10. Late Riser says:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 10:36 am

    Quasar
    Thank you for the link. It was a joy to read.
    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/michael-fanone-jan-6-book-congress-hawley-gaetz-trump-1234589772/
    ____________

    Conversely, I found it depressing. A police officer goes above and beyond and gets dealt shit from the Right?

    I’m sick of those who speak and act truthfully copping it. I think only the “little” people who were dumb/racist/whatever enough to invade the Capitol on Jan 6 will be held to account legally. The rich and powerful instigators – Trump et al – won’t.

    The only way Trump and Trumpists will pay for their actions is if enough voters are motivated by their presence on the ballot to vote for whichever Democrat is running against them.

    I note fivethirtyeight’s forecast…

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/

    …now gives the Dems a 32% chance of retaining control of the House (their probability in the Senate is much higher.) While 32% isn’t great, a few weeks ago it was 29%.

    The Dems are likely to attract more votes for their candidates, it’s just that they have to overcome so many Republican gerrymanders.

    Still, 32 is better than 29 – and when Trump won in 2016, the fivethirtyeight election-eve forecast gave him a 3 in 8 (37.5%) chance.

    Maybe the Supremes can do some more extremist stuff over the next few weeks…

  11. zoomster
    “The world isn’t the same, and yet business communities and governments seem largely to be acting as if nothing’s happened and we can just press the reset button and get back to pre COVID conditions.”

    In March 2020 – at the start of the wider spreading of covid, I said (to the other half) – “The world has changed”
    Unfortunately, the decision-makers and profiteers have not accepted this, and have taken as their main aim to restore the status quo ante.
    It is notable that the activities which were about to suffer were those which had expanded dramatically in the previous 30-40 years: long distance travel and vacations, eating out, BIG events such as rock concerts, sporting events.
    Clearly (for me), priorities need to be re-ordered to give much greater attention to medical support, social housing, and much better support for the less well-off, the disabled and the ageing.

  12. Victoria says:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 11:00 am

    Snappy Tom

    Wonder how last nights ratings went?

    I will be surprised if they were better than usual.
    ____________

    My google search didn’t find 2022 numbers. I imagine having two teams from Western Sydney doesn’t help ratings – perhaps some viewers in other areas watched a movie because they 1) aren’t rusted-on gf watchers; and 2) felt in no way represented by Parramatta or Penrith?

    I’m sure the AFL, when they’re not trying to figure out how to get Hawthorn out of the headlines, were happy to see a Victorian club playing a non-Victorian club last weekend.

  13. And the other clear priorities – education, mitigating climate change causes and effects, and a far better national disaster plan!! (And several others which have been attacked over the past nine years)

  14. Snappy Tom,
    What happened to Fanone and what it represents is depressing. That too. It’s been said before. What I found joyous was the man’s spirit. He took his raw anger, found himself, and went beyond it. Powerful writing.

  15. Well TV ratings are in – NRL” Western Sydney” wet dream was a fizzer. Melbourne and Brisbane turned off in droves. Clearly State of Origin is now Australias’ Premier Rugby League competition.

    “It may have been the battle of western Sydney at the NRL grand final but it proved a national affair with nearly 2.4 million Australians tuning in.

    Overnight figures taking in the five city metro and regional markets show 2.367 million Australians watched the Penrith Panthers smash the Parramatta Eels at Sydney’s Accor Stadium.

    That broke down to 1.671 million in the five city metro markets and 696,000 regionally.

    Further streaming numbers will be released over the coming days to provide total viewing figures.

    It is dramatically down on 2021’s grand final TV ratings although it is unfair to compare given much of Australia was in lockdown due to the pandemic at this time last year.

    Then, the game drew a national audience of more than 3.2 million people.

    The 2022 grand final marks the first time the overall audience is below 2.5 million viewers in the history of OzTam ratings data.

    Breaking down the figures for Sunday’s game, some 837,000 people tuned in, and a further 282,000 in northern NSW and 155,000 in southern NSW.

    It was in Melbourne and Brisbane that the ratings suffered. For Melbourne, 252,000 people watched the game on Channel 9, which represents the lowest recorded ratings for the city in more than two decades. Brisbane saw 391,000 viewers tune in, again the lowest figure in 20 plus years.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/nrl/nrl-grand-final-buzz-key-edge-penrith-panthers-hold-over-great-nrl-teams/news-story/f545da6f2ff7386fe1afc03af715a77a?amp

  16. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/27/polls-indigenous-voice-leadership-approval-skills-shortages-open-thread/comment-page-48/#comment-3988204

    Why would anyone vote for less social and more liberal democracy?
    How come?
    Liberal democracy has had not just big wasteful gov, never enjoyed a crisis that wasn’t wasted, they’ve also moved through slavery, opium, financial services, MAD (mutually assured destruction, though I guess they looked better than the other side during the Cold War, if perhaps not than non-aligned) into extreme disaster capitalism.
    … conservatives didn’t get the message in 1972/ Whitlam, 1983/ Hawke, 2007/ Rudd or 2022/ Albanese (pandemic, GFC/ Asian Currency Crisis/ Oil Crisis, WW5/ GWOT/ Cold War didn’t ‘wake’ them up), and they are a clear and present danger to your health, security and wealth.
    Vast right wing conspiracy indeed, closer to fascism, even communism or theocrazy-ism, whilst weakening democracy.
    No matter the cries of wokeness (not that political correctness, diversity haven’t made it easy).
    Critical race theory.
    Environment (land clearing).
    Demonisation.
    Casualisation (outsourcing).
    Beliefs (not data).
    Forget stakeholders, or labour, focused on shareholders, capital.
    Their ‘values’ are lobbyist and donor driven, all about merchant kings and warlords.
    To advance Australia, fair, values/ budgets/ words/ actions will have come from progressives (red Liebor included, same same Libs lite not so much) and independents …
    Given the trend on various score cards (#, what would success look like), within the Five Eyes, even if from the ground up infused with (not statutory but) special privileges vs common law, I hold out social democratic hopes for New Zealand, Canada, may be Australia, not so much UK4, let alone America. (Half the world’s expenditure on stuff to blow up humanity hasn’t helped governance, Wuflu, climate, inequality, powershift … either.)
    Here’s to learning more from Scandinavia, Switzerland, Singapore, may be non-aligned, even BRICs rather than just places that kept having to be invaded (Mary and William of 1688, Norman French of 1066, Vikings of 793, Romans …).

    #
    Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (iHDI)
    Sustainable Development Goals (SGG, Nature Positivity, Green New Deal, Circularity etc)
    Gross National Happiness (GNH)
    Better Life Index (BLI)
    World Competitiveness Index/ Report (WCI/ WCR)
    Corruptions Perceptions Index (CPI)

  17. Victoria says:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 11:11 am

    What is this crap about the Australia cup having the nazi salute during welcome to country!
    What the…
    ____________

    I think Rex posted about that – either the image or a link to it.

    Here’s a link to an ABC article…

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-02/sydney-united-fans-nazi-salutes-welcome-to-country-booed/101494818

    I don’t know who George Santayana was, but he nailed it…
    “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana, The Life of Reason, 1905.

    I think the mainstream Right are seeking to harness dark forces to entrench them in power. They’ve been doing it for a while – certainly since Howard in this country.

    There are segments of the community who think they’re getting a raw deal. They’re usually not getting a raw deal. They’re just angry because they find it easy to believe some foreigner (or other kind of Other) is out to get their cookie. Ironically, the “cookie possession anxiety” is being stoked by a tiny minority of powerful interests who control 80% of the cookies and would like to control 90%.

    Sometimes, the world is a disgusting place.

  18. Ven at 9:36 am

    Do you know why you don’t know these kind of things.
    It is because Western civilization was the winner….

    In this case it would be a lack of education on my part rather than an effect of the very real point you make re the ‘winners’ . You might like a bit of Mark Twain’s autobiography, I have a feeling you might nod along with it 🙂

    Mark Twain Speaks! Special excerpt from Twain’s Autobiography Vol. II
    Friday, September 7, 1906
    …………………….a retired regular army officer of high grade, proclaimed in a loud voice, and with fervency,

    “We are of the Anglo-Saxon race, and when the Anglo-Saxon wants a thing he just takes it.”

    That utterance was applauded to the echo. There were perhaps seventy-five civilians present and twenty-five military and naval men. It took those people nearly two minutes to work off their stormy admiration………………..The soldier man’s great utterance, interpreted by the expression which he put into it, meant, in plain English–

    “The English and the Americans are thieves, highwaymen, pirates, and we are proud to be of the combination.”

    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/arts/mark-twain-speaks-special-excerpt-from-twains-autobiography-vol-ii#:~:text=%E2%80%9CWe%20are%20of%20the%20Anglo%2DSaxon%20race%2C%20and%20when,five%20military%20and%20naval%20men.

  19. Upnorth

    Thanks for the report. Not surprised Melbourne and Brisbane switched off early.
    Our household was one of them. Lol…

  20. Biochar industry fuelled by agricultural waste expected to grow

    https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/101483868?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16647547405048&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2Frural%2F2022-10-01%2Fbiochar-industry-grows-in-australia-big-benefits-for-agriculture%2F101483868

    “At Laragon Almonds in north-western Victoria, the processing plant is dwarfed by the piles of leftovers that sit alongside it.

    The hulls and shells are normally sold as livestock feed, but with the almond industry expanding rapidly over the past decade, that market is oversupplied.

    “A couple of years ago, we were achieving $200 a tonne,” managing director Brendan Sidhu says.

    “This year, we’ll probably average $30 a tonne for [the] hull, so it’s a significant difference.”

    With that in mind, he went looking for an alternative and landed on biochar, a type of charcoal that’s rich in carbon.

    “We think that there’s a great demand for it in the future,” he says.

    “But we think there are also great spin-offs.”

    What is biochar?
    Biochar is made by heating organic material with limited oxygen through a process known as pyrolysis.

    SDA Engineering, which is supplying Laragon with its pyrolysis plant, has been trialling more than a dozen agricultural residues from nut, forestry, broadacre and wine industries.

    Company co-founder Leon Daych says generally the leftovers sit in a paddock and deteriorate and release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

    Leon Daych says biochar locks the carbon inside the charcoal material.(ABC Landline: Kerry Staight)
    Instead, the carbon is locked up in the biochar, which Mr Daych says is a very versatile product.”

  21. Damn. The Brazilian election is going to a run-off between Lula De Silva and Jair Bolsonaro, on October 30th. No clear winner today.

  22. The Penrith Panthers had the best season ever by any Rugby League team. They won the Harold Mathews (under 16s), Jersey Flegg (under 21s), the NSW State Cup then the State Cup Championship v Nth Qld Devils. The did not have a team in the NRLW, that was won by Newcastle Nights v Parramatta.
    The Panthers territory is from Blacktown to the East, Katoomba in the West, Windsor/Windsor Rd to the North and Badgery Ck to the South. So we have Blacktown/Mt Druitt/St Marys/ Riverstone-Windsor and The Blue Mntns (Labor) and the rest (LNP).
    I am a lifelong Eels supporter, my three sons played in the Panthers area as that is where we lived. Of course, that makes my second team the Panthers, so although a little disappointed I was able to appreciate the second half and appreciate what a great game it was.
    As far as the TV viewers, it was sour grapes by the Qlders and Vics as they missed a great game it was, it was a tough but clean game.

  23. Poroti: The True Born Englishman:

    Thus from a Mixture of all Kinds began,
    That Het’rogeneous Thing, An Englishman:
    In eager Rapes, and furious Lust begot,
    Betwixt a Painted Britain and a Scot.
    Whose gend’ring Off-spring quickly learn’d to Bow,
    And yoke their Heifers to the Roman Plough:
    From whence a Mongrel half-Bred Race there came,
    With neither Name, nor Nation, Speech or Fame.
    In whose hot Veins new Mixtures quickly ran,
    Infus’d betwixt a Saxon and a Dane.
    While their Rank Daughters, to their Parents just,
    Receiv’d all nations with promiscuous lust.
    This Nauseous Brood directly did contain
    The well extracted Blood of Englishmen

  24. Ven at 11:53 am
    Good to hear the biochar stuff is still going. I did some analysis for a local project back in the day. I’d never heard of it before but it made me ‘a believer’.
    It is a bit of a ‘reinventing the wheel’ 🙂

    Terra Preta – Basic Information
    “Terra Preta de Indio” (Amazonian Dark Earths; earlier also called “Terra Preta do Indio” or Indian Black Earth) is the local name for certain dark earths in the Brazilian Amazon region. These dark earths occur, however, in several countries in South America and probably beyond. They were most likely created by pre-Columbian Indians from 500 to 2500 years B.P. and abandoned after the invasion of Europeans (Smith, 1980; Woods et al., 2000).

    http://www.css.cornell.edu/faculty/lehmann/research/terra%20preta/terrapretamain.html
    If the above does not show add and h to the start of the address. It’s an olde Cornell link
    ttp://www.css.cornell.edu/faculty/lehmann/research/terra%20preta/terrapretamain.html

  25. Victoriasays:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 11:33 am
    Upnorth
    Thanks for the report. Not surprised Melbourne and Brisbane switched off early.
    Our household was one of them. Lol…
    _____________________
    Mine was never on to begin with.
    Would rather watch paint dry.

  26. Is Biochar a plan to dilute in situ soil carbon over time?

    …unless it is harvested from the paddocks, transported over large distances, processed, transported back over large distances and then infused over large areas.

    I really don’t know.

  27. Alan Kohler writes about Morrison’s 2018 budget and Liz Trusses disastrous efforts, and says, “So let this be a lesson to you, Treasurer Jim Chalmers – cutting taxes for the rich with borrowed money is no longer the way to a global capitalist’s heart, especially when central banks are trying to slow things down; these days financial markets punish reckless ideology.”
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/10/03/tax-cuts-chalmers-alan-kohler/

    There is no greater test of Jim Chalmers’ credentials than that re the S3 tax cuts.

    What Labor needs and wants is its base to demand the repeal or significant amendment of this rotten legislation.

    That the partisans faithfully back the cuts, against their good judgement, is a frustration for Labor.

    Labor partisans be LOUD and give your leaders the message they actually want …!

  28. Boerwar at 12:34 pm
    The scheme I had contact with envisaged farmers growing a couple of rows of vegetation as wind breaks around blocks. A bit of a ‘rotation crop’ system. The vegetation would be harvested and ‘charred ‘ on site then applied to the soil.The charring systems used seemed quite basic and inexpensive. I saw one made from an old water tank. Perhaps you could try a bit of biochar production out at Wombat Hollow ?

  29. p
    That would be ‘Many Wombat Hollows’. Your suggestion requires careful consultation and negotiation. There is competition and wombats see themselves as the only legitimate mode of transforming carbon.

  30. p
    Other than that I have always thought that, provided the cost structures were right, improving soil carbon percentages is an incredible win win. Unfortunately, Australian consumers of food (who predominantly live where Greens voters also live) prefer to have cheap, reliable and high quality food, regardless of the season, at the lowest possible price.

  31. Boerwar 12:50 pm
    Once those bolshie wombats hear about the increased ease of digging the addition of charcoal provides they’ll be begging you to start.

  32. Boerwar at 12:51 pm
    With the drying trend and the salinity problems perhaps the place is doomed anyway. Water problems from above and below.

    Drastically changing rainfall patterns are reshaping WA’s vast wheatbelt
    In the south-west corner of the state, home of Australia’s most productive grain growing region, winter rainfall has dropped by up to 20 per cent since the 1970s.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-12-30/drastic-changes-to-rainfall-reshape-wa-wheatbelt/11829596

    The scale of the dryland salinity problem

    More than 1 million hectares of agricultural land in the south-west of Western Australia (WA) is severely affected by salt. The lost agricultural productivity from salinity damage is estimated to be worth at least $519 million per year. Even though climate change has resulted in reduced annual rainfall, saline watertables have risen in many areas, meaning that dryland salinisation is a threat to an additional 2.8 to 4.5 million hectares of low-lying or valley floor soils.

    https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/soil-salinity/dryland-salinity-western-australia-0

  33. Hey, Rex Douglas do you still think Emma Husar should have been managed out of the Labor Party? And do you still think that a young Indigenous Woman who abused an Indigenous Elder to the point of needing medical attention and who we today find out said that she had no respect for her, is the sort of leader you want?

    Don’t worry, I don’t expect you to answer the questions and hold yourself to account, you only ever seem interested in trying to embarrass others.

  34. As this song verse goes………………..

    The atom bomb fell just the other day,
    The H-Bomb fell in the very same way;
    Russia went, England went, and then the U.S.A.
    The human race was finished without a chance to pray.

    But nath came back the very next day,
    nath came back, we thought he was a goner
    But nath came back; he just couldn’t stay away.
    Away, away, yea, yea, yea

  35. Taylormade says:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 12:27 pm
    Victoriasays:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 11:33 am
    Upnorth
    Thanks for the report. Not surprised Melbourne and Brisbane switched off early.
    Our household was one of them. Lol…
    _____________________
    Mine was never on to begin with.
    Would rather watch paint dry.
    中华人民共和国
    LOL Taylormade

  36. E. G. Theodore says:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 1:58 pm
    Mean girls!
    中华人民共和国
    Red Ted. I got your cut safe from that bridge sale. 🙂

  37. Good comments from Josh Burns. Overseas Australians were excommunicated by the Morrison Government making it illegal to return home, our polling booths closed during the Federal Election and consular assistance downgraded.

    “Australians should be supported equally whether in Syria or elsewhere overseas, Labor MP Josh Burns says.

    Mr Burns on Monday told Sky News it was important to “look after our citizens” but acknowledged some cases needed to be balanced with national security.

    Careful not to delve into ASIO’s Syrian rescue mission specifically, Mr Burns said the government took national security “extremely seriously” but needed to offer Australians appropriate support.

    “On this issue of repatriating people … we always take the advice of our national security agencies extremely seriously,” he said, “And that is first and foremost whenever making decisions about any national security decision.

    “Beyond that, I think that it is also really important to do what’s required as a country to protect our citizens and to look after our citizens and that includes children.

    “Australians overseas and their family need to be treated as Australians and they need to be given the appropriate support as you would expect in any scenario.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/politicsnow-australia-backs-additional-sanctions-against-russia-over-ukraine-annexations/live-coverage/12a747407d6e4f85bab7a09de86434c9#74496

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