9:59am Tuesday The final presidential result is Lula over Bolsonaro by 48.4-43.2. I think Lula would have won by about 53-47 if Brazil used preferential voting, so he’s still the clear favourite to win the October 30 runoff.
In the legislature, Bolsonaro’s Liberal party won 99 of the 513 Chamber of Deputies seats (up 66), while Lula’s alliance won 80 seats (up 11). There are many parties represented, but it looks as if right-wing parties have a majority. The Liberals won eight of the 27 Senate seats up for election, and two other right-wing parties won eight seats (there are a total of 81 senators). So both chambers will have right-wing majorities.
12:52pm With 99.5% counted, Lula’s lead hits five points, 48.3-43.3.
12:01pm With 98.5% counted, Lula leads by 48.1-43.5, a 4.6% margin. He will be a heavy favourite to win the October 30 runoff, but Bolsonaro has performed much better than polls expected.
10:48am With 92.6% counted, Lula leads Bolsonaro by 47.4-44.1, a 3.3% margin. The five pre-election polls gave Lula an eight to 16 point first round margin over Bolsonaro. They don’t look good.
10:34am There are big swings against Bolsonaro in the big urban states, like the federal district, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. But his vote is holding up much better in rural states like Amazonas, Para and Tocantis. Bolsonaro won the 2018 runoff by a 55.1-44.9 margin.
10:25am With 82.6% counted, Lula leads by 46.5-44.8, a 1.7% margin.
10:05am With 70% counted, Lula takes the lead by 45.7-45.5.
10am Bolsonaro’s lead drops to 46.0-45.2 with 60.3% reporting. But it looks likely that polls have understated Bolsonaro. He’s likely to lose this round when all votes are counted, but the margin could be close, and the runoff will be a contest. Shades of Trump in the US 2020 election?
9:34am Bolsonaro’s lead keeps shrinking as more votes are counted. He’s down to a 2.2% margin (46.7-44.5) with 46% counted.
9:21am With 35.5% counted, Bolsonaro’s lead drops to 3.5% nationally. 89% has been counted in Espirito Santo, and Bolsonaro leads there by 52-40. In 2018, he won this state by 63.1-36.9
9:11am With 31% counted, Bolsonaro still leads by 47.6-43.6 nationally. But he appears to be underperforming badly in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, both of which he won by 68.0-32.0 in 2018.
9:01am While there’s a big swing against Bolsonaro in the federal district, there doesn’t seem to be in Tocantins. With 65% counted here, Lula is winning by 48.9-45.3. Bolsonaro lost this state in the 2018 runoff 51.0-49.0.
8:51am With 16.2% reporting, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 47.9-43.4 nationally. In the federal district, with over 82% in, his lead is 52-37, down from 70-30 in 2018.
8:21am With 4.9% of the overall vote counted, Bolsonaro leads by 48.8-42.1. He’s still winning the federal district 52-36 with 52% in.
8:08am Over 42% has been counted in the federal district, with Bolsonaro winning by 52-36. But in the 2018 runoff, he won the federal district by 70-30.
7:51am With 1.5% counted, Bolsonaro leads by 48.5-41.6 for Lula. I believe the current results are unrepresentative, and that Lula will improve when more results from the northeastern states report.
7:17am Monday The Guardian has results of the presidential election. So far just 0.14% has been counted
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The first round of the Brazilian presidential election occurs today. If nobody wins at least 50%, a runoff between the top two first round candidates will be held October 30. The major contenders are the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula), who was president from 2003 to 2010.
Brazil has four time zones, but voting hours are synchronised, so that polls in trailing time zones open and close an hour earlier local time than polls in leading time zones. All polls close at 7am Monday AEDT (note: not AEST). As votes are recorded electronically, counting should be fast. There is no pre-poll or postal voting; all votes must be cast on election day.
The final five Brazilian polls, mostly taken since Thursday’s debate, have had Lula leading Bolsonaro by eight to 16 points in the first round. If the contest goes to the October 30 runoff, the polls give Lula a nine to 17 point lead. Voting is compulsory for those aged between 18 and 70.
Brazilian polls include undecided. Lula is currently in the high 40s in the first round in most polls, but undecided is at 1-9%. If undecided were excluded, as most polls in Australia do, three of the last five polls would give Lula just over the 50% needed to win outright in the first round and avoid a runoff.
As well as the presidential election, there are legislative elections today. All 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies will be elected by proportional representation, and 27 of the 81 senators (one per state) will be elected by first past the post. Many parties are currently represented.
In the last three years, left-wing candidates have won presidential elections in Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Bolivia and Peru. A win in Brazil would cement the left’s dominance in South America even as they struggle in Europe.
UK Labour seizes huge lead after ‘horror’ budget
On September 23, new UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng delivered a budget that would greatly reduce taxes to the benefit of the already well-off. Rather than cut spending, the tax cuts would be funded by borrowing. Owing to this borrowing, the UK pound plummeted on the financial markets.
Financial market turmoil continued last week. There have been nine UK national polls taken since Tuesday, and six give Labour leads of 17 to 21 points over the Conservatives, while three give Labour a lead of over 30 points. Prior to the budget, Labour’s lead was high single to low double digits. But the next UK general election is not due until late 2024.
US Democrats’ gains stall, Netanyahu could win again in Israel
The US midterm elections will be held November 8. I wrote for The Conversation Friday that Democratic chances in both houses of Congress have stalled recently, with Democrats’ chances of retaining the Senate in the FiveThirtyEight forecaast down from 71% in mid-September to 68% now.
The Israeli election is on November 1, after a government formed to keep out Benjamin Netanyahu collapsed. A religious and right-wing coalition that would be led by Netanyahu’s Likud is currently polling at 59-62 of the 120 Knesset seats in the last four polls, with the current governing parties at a combined 54-57. The Joint Arab List split in two, and one of the new parties is unlikely to make the 3.25% threshold to win seats; this helps Netanyahu.
59 comments on “Brazilian first round presidential election live”
The last of the 9 UK polls mentioned by Adrian is by Opinium, which I talked about in the General Thread the other day
Opinium changed their methodology in February .. I think they started to aggressively add back Tory “Don’t Knows” and “Undecideds” to the Tory VI. On the day they changed they reported a 3% Labour lead and said that under their old method it would have been a 10% lead
With the Conservative Party Conference starting today, our latest poll shows Labour’s lead has shot up from 5 points to 19 over the Conservatives
Con 27% (-7)
Lab 46% (+7)
Lib Dem 9% (-1)
Green 6% (-1)
28-30 September, c/w 21-23 September
Is there any particular reason why you don’t cover Indian elections? Just asking.
Bolsonaro will win again. If the media is taking part for someone, I’ll not gonna vote for him. And it’s happening, Bolsonaro will win again.
Bolsonaro is already threatening to do a Trump and cry “electoral fraud” unless he wins with at least 60% of the vote.
Unless the military high ranks tell him to shut up and accept the result (he is expected to lose, probably in the first round), things may go very badly in Brazil….
Overall mid-term election opinion polling results for the month of September (from Statista):
21 polls favourable to Democrats
16 polls favourable to Republicans
The thing is democrats in the USA were never true democrats. Period. They were in favor of slavery, didn’t want all ethnicities to vote and didn’t want women to vote. The Republicans did all that instead.
In Brazil, former president was trialed and found guilty in all three courts, INCLUDING the SUPREME COURT. Was freed from prison by a technicality of ADDRESS!! Not by lack of proof! That is not the same as being acquitted!
He left a U$200 billion loss for Brazilian oil company and U$10 billion loos for Brazilian Development Bank.
It is a real shame most news aren’t doing their job and digging out the truth. Brazil is the only country with deflation three months in a row! The only country with superavit towards China (exports more than imports).
One of the least expensive gasoline in the planet after pandemic and Ukraine war. Brazil, NOW, feeds 1/5 of entire population in the world!
So, any comment against the present administration is just cheap socialist frustrated innuendo.
Check on social midia what happens when Bolsonaro goes on the streets and compare to the biased polls! The former president is so unwanted, he doesn’t even go out fearing indifference!
Wow what a tin foil hat wearing right wing nut job!
Some random yank passing by.
Strewth. Dropped in by accident. Surprised Taylormade hasn’t lobbed here as well after that fruitcake.
Who’d have thought that a party overseeing the elimination of the top marginal tax rate might bomb in the polls?
If the Tories go at all like they’re polling, it will perhaps lead to the collapse of the Conservative Party. Like the ongoing collapse of our Liberal party, it probably won’t result in the absence of a right wing party, nor the cooptation of Labor onto the right with some other group on the left, but a new party (or in our case, a new coalition of parties) will grow up in its place. Just like how the Liberal party replaced the United Australia Party (which replaced the Nationalist party which replaced the old Liberal party).
Some are already struck by the repeated similarities in recent years between our politics and the UK’s. From the unexpected minority parliaments, to conservative success, to the quick succession of prime ministers, and now perhaps to the collapse of the institutional party of the right. In my view, the repeated similarities are superficial and you would learn more from studying the differences than the similarities. But if the next step in both countries is the collapse of the institutional party of the right, it’s going to get harder for me to make a credible argument about this… Certainly in this case, it seems like the ongoing collapse of the Liberals and the possible collapse of the Conservative Party would have the same underlying cause: parties which are more interested in their own ideology than democratically governing the country.
Therefore, to those who have better knowledge of UK politics than me: Do you think this crisis could kill the Conservative Party, or does it just seem like normal political dissatisfaction? (it seems worse than normal from my vantage point, but I don’t necessarily know how deep normal dissatisfaction goes there). Do you think the Teals could provide a template for revitalising the right over there? (it would surprise me; the Teals are native to the Australian interpretation of the Westminster system and come directly out of Westminster system ideals, but they’re completely foreign to the British implementation of the Westminster system since they began approaching a mass electorate).
“7:17am Monday The Guardian has results of the presidential election. So far just 0.14% has been counted”….
…. Yes, and most likely they are rural electorates where one would expect Bolsonaro to have an advantage, hence he is currently ahead of Lula. As usual, however, the election will be decided in the big urban centres, where Lula would be favourite.
“Joe Roseman says:
Sunday, October 2, 2022 at 11:22 pm
The thing is democrats in the USA were never true democrats. Period. They were in favor of slavery, didn’t want all ethnicities to vote and didn’t want women to vote. The Republicans did all that instead.”…
Oh dear, that’s 19th century American history. Wake up, we are in the 21st century!!
In the past, Southern states also used to vote for the Democrats for the same alleged reason, given that the anti-slavery President, Lincoln, was a Republican…. That pattern was abandoned long ago, now the Southern states tend to vote Republican…. is that because they hate slavery?
“In Brazil, former president was trialed and found guilty in all three courts, INCLUDING the SUPREME COURT. Was freed from prison by a technicality of ADDRESS!! Not by lack of proof! That is not the same as being acquitted!”
Here, less propaganda and inform yourself:
“The prosecution of Brazil’s former President, Luiz da Silva, violated his right to a fair trial, his right to privacy and his political rights, the UN Human Rights Committee has found.
The Committee, whose members are independent rights experts appointed by the Human Rights Council, issued its findings after the former President – who’s commonly called by his nickname, Lula, filed a complaint to the panel.
Lula was Brazil’s President from 2003 to 2010 and a target in a massive corruption probe called Operation Car Wash.
Investigators uncovered corruption between the State-owned oil and petrol company, Petrobrás, several construction companies, and various Brazilian politicians, relating to secret campaign funds.
In July 2017, Lula was sentenced to nine years in prison; this was later increased to 12 years, effectively preventing him from standing in new presidential elections.
The Human Rights Committee noted that wiretaps of Lula and his family had been approved and released to the media before formal charges were made.
This and other incidents contravened his right to privacy and his right to the presumption of innocence, the Committee said.
Lacking due process
“While States have a duty to investigate and prosecute acts of corruption and to keep the population informed, especially when a former head of State is concerned, such actions must be conducted fairly and respect due process guarantees,” said Committee member Arif Bulkan.
The Supreme Federal Court quashed Lula’s sentence in 2021, ruling that former judge Sergio Moro – who had overseen the initial corruption trial – had no jurisdiction to investigate and try the cases, and annulled the investigation on the basis that the former judge, was not considered to be impartial.
“Although the Supreme Federal Court vacated Lula’s conviction and imprisonment in 2021, these decisions were not timely and effective enough to avoid or redress the violations,” Mr. Bulkan said.
While States have a duty to investigate and prosecute acts of corruption and to keep the population informed, especially when a former head of State is concerned, such actions must be conducted fairly and respect due process guarantees. Arif Bulkan
The committee found that the conduct and other public acts of former judge Moro violated Lula’s right to be tried by an impartial tribunal; and that the actions and public statements by the former judge, and the prosecutors, were also a violation of his right to his presumption of innocence.
These procedural violations rendered Lula’s prohibition to run for president arbitrary, the committee ruled, and therefore in violation of his political rights, including his right to run for office.
It urged the Brazilian Government, to ensure that any further criminal proceedings against Lula, comply with due process guarantees and to prevent similar violations in the future”
Oh dear, and now “Joe Roseman” propaganda is reaching truly ridiculous levels:
“It is a real shame most news aren’t doing their job and digging out the truth. Brazil is the only country with deflation three months in a row! The only country with superavit towards China (exports more than imports).
One of the least expensive gasoline in the planet after pandemic and Ukraine war. Brazil, NOW, feeds 1/5 of entire population in the world!
So, any comment against the present administration is just cheap socialist frustrated innuendo.
Check on social midia what happens when Bolsonaro goes on the streets and compare to the biased polls! The former president is so unwanted, he doesn’t even go out fearing indifference!”
Funny that you don’t provide any link to substantiate your claims… Is Bolsonaro going to accept the decision of the voters or is he going to do a Trump and behave like the anti-democratic Fascist that he is? If Brazil and the Brazilian people were doing so well, as you claim, Bolsonaro should win, if he doesn’t then this “fantastic” picture of Brazil is just a blatant lie. When the People are unhappy with a government, they tend to vote that government out, just ask Donald Trump in the USA or Scott Morrison in Australia…..
Brazilians only have to remember that “thanks” to Bolsonaro and his brainless delusion about Covid:
a) There have been more than 34 million cases of Covid in the country: 4th place in the world.
b) There have been more than 686,000 deaths by Covid in the country: 2nd place in the world.
Lest they forget….
“With 40% of votes counted, Bolsonaro is still ahead of Lula, but by a smaller and smaller margin as more results come in – leftwing frontrunner Lula is trailing the far-right incumbent by just 2.85%”
Interesting: The trend has been relentless towards decreasing the initial advantage of Bolsonaro…. and there is still 60% of the votes to be counted….
Is it safe to call that neither candidate will make it to the 50% threshold to win outright without the need for a run-off election?
Bolsonaro’s advantage continues to drop:
“With 52% of votes counted it is now Bolsonaro 46.3% and Lula nearly 45%”….
Things must have changed since I was in Brazil for the 2014 runoff – on that occasion no results were made public until the polls closed in the westernmost states, which meant the first results released were something like 95% counted.
“10am Bolsonaro’s lead drops to 46.0-45.2 with 60.3% reporting. “… Thanks Adrian. For the first time the difference between Lula and Bolsonaro is less than 1%…. and shrinking. If this continues like that, Lula should take over soon. The question remains whether he will go above 50%…. still mathematically possible.
Lula coming home with a wet sail
Amazon destruction 45.51
There you go, it has just happened: Lula takes the lead!
Lula – 45.74%
Bolsonaro – 45.51%
…. with still 30% of votes to be counted…..
Surely someone named Léonardo Péricles should be doing better than 0.1%
The ~8% others will be critical for the run off in 2 weeks time.
Though Bolsanaro will have a couple of weeks to fly down Roger Stone, Steve Bannon, Rudy Guliani and Sidney Powell to sort things out….
I was in Brazil for a couple of months in early 2020 and I didn’t come across anyone who had a good word for him – although there were businesses that kept open despite Covid concerns (“It is just a small flu” Jair Bolsonaro said)
For the most part this was in the bigger cities of Rio, Sao Paolo and Porto Alegre but still…
“Datafolha survey predicts run-off
The polling company Datafolha is predicting that the election will go to a second-round on 30 October, which means Lula will have failed to gain more than 50% of the vote in this round – a surprising result given pre-polling that showed the leftwing frontrunner securing a comfortable win.”
Conclusion: My dear Datafolha team, why don’t you guys take a break as we watch the actual counting of votes progressing?
So, onto October.
All the Bolsanaro leading districts are 90%+ in (Rio excluded)
Many of Lula leaning ones are way below this, may still be close
Lula is now at 46.53% vs Bolsonaro at 44.81%, with 80% of votes counted:
“But it is looking highly unlikely – though not yet technically impossible – that he will get the more than 50% needed to win outright and avoid a runoff.”
Yes, it remains technically possible that Lula may get over 50% of the votes…. keep counting.
So Tebet with 4.37% is a ‘centrist’, and Ciro Gomez with 3.08% is a socialist. You’d think there’s enough there to push Lula over the line in the runoff.
Lula is up to 47.12 with only 10% to count, so tough to clear 50%.
90% votes counted and Lula is at 47.25%…. A run-off is now more likely. What are Lula’s chances in the second round? On ideological grounds, he should get the votes from Ciro Gomes (currently at 3.07%), Padre Kelman (0.07%) and Leo Pericles (0.05%). So, if things stay as they are until all votes are counted, then Lula should win the run-off with about 51% or slightly less. Will Bolsonaro do a Trump and deny defeat?
Monday, October 3, 2022 at 10:39 am
So Tebet with 4.37% is a ‘centrist’”….
Simone Tebet looks more centre-right than centre-centre, so I am not sure how many of her voters could shift to Lula in the second round. But perhaps some may….
Lula doing real well in the late count
On 47.47 with 0.065 to count
This feels like Biden vs Trump.
Wonder where the Brazilian military stand? Not to mention the Biden Administration.
97.61% of votes counted:
Second round is just about inevitable. However, Lula will only need the votes from Ciro Gomes (3.05%) to win the runoff with a 51%. All extra votes will be a bonus. It’s difficult to predict how many votes will go from Simone Tebet (currently standing at 4.2%) to Lula.
I understand that Brazilians like to “back a winner” and as such there may be a trend toward Lula from the excluded candidates.
Of course, if Lula had been expected to win easily (as predicted in polls) the momentum might not be there.
Monday, October 3, 2022 at 11:36 am
Wonder where the Brazilian military stand? Not to mention the Biden Administration.”
There is little doubt that Biden will support Lula. If the USA support the elected government, the military will fall in line. In addition, it’s unlikely that Brazilians are keen on another military dictatorship, as the last one was long and painful, lasting from the 1960s to the mid 1980s.
“BRASILIA/RIO DE JANEIRO, Sept 23 (Reuters) – U.S. diplomats have assured Brazil’s leading presidential candidate, leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, that they will swiftly recognize the winner of next month’s election, two sources told Reuters, seeking to avert any attempt to contest a legitimate result or sow chaos after the vote.”
… Oh, and note that Bolsonaro did request Biden to help him…. That’s the response he got.
It’s now mathematically impossible for Lula to win the election on this first round:
98.44% votes counted, only 1.56% left to count.
But Lula looks good to win the second round, even if he just gets the votes of Ciro Gomes (3.05%).
It’s a percentage of districts reporting not votes. Big urban districts probably. Lula won’t get to 50 but does seem to be getting nearly everything coming his way now
The Guardian had a vote count chart that had obviously gone through Google translate, Lula was shown as ‘Squid’, the English translation from Portugese. Bolsanaro vs Squid.
Alpo at 9.13 am
You’re using official Covid statistics for cases and deaths, which are unreliable for many countries, including Brazil. According to global health statisticians, the likely Covid death toll in Brazil until the end of 2021 was around 792,000. See p 1525 at:
That was around 170,000 above the official recorded deaths at that time, so now it is likely that the real death toll in Brazil is between 900,000 and 1 million. However, Brazil is not the second worst in the world according to aggregate deaths, because, apart from the USA, more people have died in Russia from Covid and particularly in India, where the aggregate Covid death toll is most likely to be well above 4 million.
An interesting question is the likely social composition of the death toll in Brazil.
A comprehensive study of deaths of children from Covid in Brazil showed they have been concentrated most in the north and northeast of the country, where support for Lula is strongest, because deaths have occurred disproportionately among the victims of inequality. See:
Most of the adult victims of Covid mismanagement in Brazil would have voted for Lula, if they got the chance to live.
AB: 12:52pm With 99.5% counted, Lula’s lead hits five points, 48.3-43.3.
Me: missed by that much.
Joe Roseman / Alpo
Lula conclusion: Lula was never exonerated of his crimes, though whether a new more legally compliant trial will ever take place I have no idea.
No-one in serious possession of the facts doubts Lula’s guilty of past corruption on a major scale, though it’s conveniently ignored by the rabidly anti-Bolsonaro bunch (perhaps understandably I suppose).
Lula’s also getting a bit long in the tooth for another stint at President – although it’s a bit fashionable to be old and President atm (Biden, Trump etc).
Some people get all caught up in the emotion on either side, perhaps based on alignment of the candidate on their ‘values’, and provide blind support for ‘their’ candidate thereafter.
This is clearly true of supporters for both Lula and Bolsonaro.
But for others: depending on whether you’re looking at money lost to corruption, poor economics, damage to climate, poor health outcomes, many Brazilians simply think that Bolsonaro has done more damage to Brazil than Lula did.
Though the opposite opinion is equally valid and nearly as widespread – hence a polarising election around a very underwhelming choice of leading candidates, pity Brazil.
Momentum will be with Bolsonaro now – his party also performed way above expectations in governorships and the senate, holding Rio and other key places and notably candidates heavily backed by Bolsonaro. Many of his past ministers (there’s quite a few!) won seats they weren’t predicted to win.
Some who were 50-50 and went for Lula in round 1 may now have 2nd thoughts, that is his danger even if he picks up most of Gomes’ votes, although on paper Lula must surely remain the favourite for now.
The current ‘heat’ won’t kill the Conservative party, but the exceptional polls of the last week are not ‘normal’ mid-term blues.
If they are still showing similar on polls taken after the end of the Tory conference later this week, opinion would appear to have hardened irreparably against them (not that Labour will actually win by these amounts next election, but it makes some kind of majority win for Labour much more of a certainty).
Truss and Kwarteng need to recover quickly, though they are now swimming against the tide.
If polls really stay c.20% deficit dire over the next few weeks, you can expect a new Tory leader by the new year for another ‘fresh start’ (Boris markII?).
Monday, October 3, 2022 at 6:39 pm
Joe Roseman / Alpo
Lula conclusion: …”
Correction: YOUR Lula conclusion. Lula has not gone through another trial, after the first one was annulled. Somebody is guilty only after being proven so in a legal trial. In fact, he could run for the presidency and came up first in the first turn.
“No-one in serious possession of the facts doubts Lula’s guilty of past corruption on a major scale”… Except an appropriate tribunal.
“Lula’s also getting a bit long in the tooth for another stint at President”…. The relative majority of Brazilian voters seem to disagree with you.