Brazilian first round presidential election live

Live coverage from Monday morning of today’s Brazilian election, which Lula could win outright. Also: UK Labour seizes a huge lead after the budget, US and Israeli polls.

Live Commentary

9:59am Tuesday The final presidential result is Lula over Bolsonaro by 48.4-43.2. I think Lula would have won by about 53-47 if Brazil used preferential voting, so he’s still the clear favourite to win the October 30 runoff.

In the legislature, Bolsonaro’s Liberal party won 99 of the 513 Chamber of Deputies seats (up 66), while Lula’s alliance won 80 seats (up 11). There are many parties represented, but it looks as if right-wing parties have a majority. The Liberals won eight of the 27 Senate seats up for election, and two other right-wing parties won eight seats (there are a total of 81 senators). So both chambers will have right-wing majorities.

12:52pm With 99.5% counted, Lula’s lead hits five points, 48.3-43.3.

12:01pm With 98.5% counted, Lula leads by 48.1-43.5, a 4.6% margin. He will be a heavy favourite to win the October 30 runoff, but Bolsonaro has performed much better than polls expected.

10:48am With 92.6% counted, Lula leads Bolsonaro by 47.4-44.1, a 3.3% margin. The five pre-election polls gave Lula an eight to 16 point first round margin over Bolsonaro. They don’t look good.

10:34am There are big swings against Bolsonaro in the big urban states, like the federal district, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. But his vote is holding up much better in rural states like Amazonas, Para and Tocantis. Bolsonaro won the 2018 runoff by a 55.1-44.9 margin.

10:25am With 82.6% counted, Lula leads by 46.5-44.8, a 1.7% margin.

10:05am With 70% counted, Lula takes the lead by 45.7-45.5.

10am Bolsonaro’s lead drops to 46.0-45.2 with 60.3% reporting. But it looks likely that polls have understated Bolsonaro. He’s likely to lose this round when all votes are counted, but the margin could be close, and the runoff will be a contest. Shades of Trump in the US 2020 election?

9:34am Bolsonaro’s lead keeps shrinking as more votes are counted. He’s down to a 2.2% margin (46.7-44.5) with 46% counted.

9:21am With 35.5% counted, Bolsonaro’s lead drops to 3.5% nationally. 89% has been counted in Espirito Santo, and Bolsonaro leads there by 52-40. In 2018, he won this state by 63.1-36.9

9:11am With 31% counted, Bolsonaro still leads by 47.6-43.6 nationally. But he appears to be underperforming badly in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, both of which he won by 68.0-32.0 in 2018.

9:01am While there’s a big swing against Bolsonaro in the federal district, there doesn’t seem to be in Tocantins. With 65% counted here, Lula is winning by 48.9-45.3. Bolsonaro lost this state in the 2018 runoff 51.0-49.0.

8:51am With 16.2% reporting, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 47.9-43.4 nationally. In the federal district, with over 82% in, his lead is 52-37, down from 70-30 in 2018.

8:21am With 4.9% of the overall vote counted, Bolsonaro leads by 48.8-42.1. He’s still winning the federal district 52-36 with 52% in.

8:08am Over 42% has been counted in the federal district, with Bolsonaro winning by 52-36. But in the 2018 runoff, he won the federal district by 70-30.

7:51am With 1.5% counted, Bolsonaro leads by 48.5-41.6 for Lula. I believe the current results are unrepresentative, and that Lula will improve when more results from the northeastern states report.

7:17am Monday The Guardian has results of the presidential election. So far just 0.14% has been counted

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The first round of the Brazilian presidential election occurs today. If nobody wins at least 50%, a runoff between the top two first round candidates will be held October 30. The major contenders are the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula), who was president from 2003 to 2010.

Brazil has four time zones, but voting hours are synchronised, so that polls in trailing time zones open and close an hour earlier local time than polls in leading time zones. All polls close at 7am Monday AEDT (note: not AEST). As votes are recorded electronically, counting should be fast. There is no pre-poll or postal voting; all votes must be cast on election day.

The final five Brazilian polls, mostly taken since Thursday’s debate, have had Lula leading Bolsonaro by eight to 16 points in the first round. If the contest goes to the October 30 runoff, the polls give Lula a nine to 17 point lead. Voting is compulsory for those aged between 18 and 70.

Brazilian polls include undecided. Lula is currently in the high 40s in the first round in most polls, but undecided is at 1-9%. If undecided were excluded, as most polls in Australia do, three of the last five polls would give Lula just over the 50% needed to win outright in the first round and avoid a runoff.

As well as the presidential election, there are legislative elections today. All 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies will be elected by proportional representation, and 27 of the 81 senators (one per state) will be elected by first past the post. Many parties are currently represented.

In the last three years, left-wing candidates have won presidential elections in Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Bolivia and Peru. A win in Brazil would cement the left’s dominance in South America even as they struggle in Europe.

UK Labour seizes huge lead after ‘horror’ budget

On September 23, new UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng delivered a budget that would greatly reduce taxes to the benefit of the already well-off. Rather than cut spending, the tax cuts would be funded by borrowing. Owing to this borrowing, the UK pound plummeted on the financial markets.

Financial market turmoil continued last week. There have been nine UK national polls taken since Tuesday, and six give Labour leads of 17 to 21 points over the Conservatives, while three give Labour a lead of over 30 points. Prior to the budget, Labour’s lead was high single to low double digits. But the next UK general election is not due until late 2024.

US Democrats’ gains stall, Netanyahu could win again in Israel

The US midterm elections will be held November 8. I wrote for The Conversation Friday that Democratic chances in both houses of Congress have stalled recently, with Democrats’ chances of retaining the Senate in the FiveThirtyEight forecaast down from 71% in mid-September to 68% now.

The Israeli election is on November 1, after a government formed to keep out Benjamin Netanyahu collapsed. A religious and right-wing coalition that would be led by Netanyahu’s Likud is currently polling at 59-62 of the 120 Knesset seats in the last four polls, with the current governing parties at a combined 54-57. The Joint Arab List split in two, and one of the new parties is unlikely to make the 3.25% threshold to win seats; this helps Netanyahu.

59 comments on “Brazilian first round presidential election live”

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  1. “BTSays says:
    Monday, October 3, 2022 at 6:49 pm”

    “although on paper Lula must surely remain the favourite for now”… I certainly agree with that. Now watch what Bolsonaro is going to do from now on, in the lead up to the runoff. We all want politicians to strictly follow the law, Bolsonaro may be tempted to do something that we may disagree with.

  2. Alpo at 7.57 pm

    There was a lot of right wing fake news about Lula in the 2018 Brazilian election, and no doubt a lot more in the current election. For analysis of the 2018 election see:

    One example (from p 310):

    “The analysis has shown that most fake news items (thirteen: nine anti-Lula
    and four pro-Lula) were closely inspired by real political events/facts. One of the
    most influential after Lula’s arrest claimed that PT president Gleisi Hoffmann
    had called terrorists from the Islamic State to release Lula da Silva from prison.
    This content, which circulated among 1.096.506 followers and motivated nearly
    60.000 interactions (5.40% engagement rate), was a direct reaction to a legitimate
    video recorded by Hoffmann herself for Al Jazeera television channel in which
    she stated that Lula da Silva was victim of political persecution.” PT = Workers Party

    So the right wing propagandists in Brazil equated Al Jazeera with Islamic State, a group that became prominent in Iraq and Syria after the disastrous US/UK invasion of Iraq.

  3. Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Labour leads by 28%, largest lead for ANY party that we’ve recorded.

    Westminster Voting Intention (2 Oct):

    Labour 52% (+6)
    Conservative 24% (-5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-3)
    Green 5% (+1)
    SNP 5% (+2)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 28-29 Sept

  4. We’ve all been waiting for Savanta ..

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+7)
    CON: 25% (-4)
    LDM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (-2)

    Via @SavantaComRes
    30 Sep – 2 Oct, Changes w/ 23-25 Sep

  5. In US runoffs turnout can be a problem as these are not generally runoffs for the highest office on the ballot paper. But in Brazil, the presidency IS the highest office, so I don’t think turnout will be a problem for either candidate.

  6. AB: In the legislature, Bolsonaro’s Liberal party won 99 of the 513 Chamber of Deputies seats (up 66), while Lula’s alliance won 80 seats (up 11). There are many parties represented, but it looks as if right-wing parties have a majority. The Liberals won eight of the 27 Senate seats up for election, and two other right-wing parties won eight seats (there are a total of 81 senators). So both chambers will have right-wing majorities.

    Me: So even if Lula wins in run-off, he will be controlled by Bolsonaro.
    Can a President be impeached in Brazil?
    Will Bolsonaro not accept the result of he loses the run-off because of citing majorities in both Chambers as proof that the election is rigged?

  7. Ven, while the right overall looks to have a majority in both houses, most right-wing winners were not aligned with Bolsonaro – that’s probably why they won, as people who disliked Bolsonaro voted for other conservative parties.

    A Brazilian president can be impeached, and this happened to Lula’s successor Dilma Rousseff in August 2016. The Brazilian left won four successive pres elections: 2002 & 2006 under Lula, 2010 & 2014 under Rousseff, but Bolsonaro broke this run in 2018.

    Regarding India in your comment #2, the last Indian federal election was in 2019, and Modi’s party won a landslide. Maybe I’ll cover the next Indian election, but Modi’s very likely to win again.

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