It seems there is little to offer this week in the way of federal polling, my suggestion in the previous post that we might see a Resolve Strategic poll and Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns probably being a week premature. We did get quarterly breakdowns, courtesy of the Age/Herald on Sunday, but from Resolve Strategic rather than Newspoll – which don’t tell us much we did not already know, as breakdowns by gender and for the three biggest states are included with the monthly results. They do, however, include fresh state results for Western Australia and South Australia and age cohort breakdowns.
Labor has been polling exceptionally well in Resolve Strategic over the period in question, which is reflected in the WA and SA results. In the former case, the primary votes are Labor 46%, Coalition 29%, Greens 12% and One Nation 3%, compared with election results of Labor 36.8%, Coalition 34.8%, Greens 12.5% and One Nation 4.0%, which was sufficient to gain Labor four seats in the state. In the latter, the primary votes from the poll are Labor 46%, Coalition 22%, Greens 14% and One Nation 6%, compared with Labor 34.5%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 12.8% and One Nation 4.8% at the election.
The age breakdowns suggest the Coalition’s deterioration since the election has been concentrated among the young and old, with the middle-age cohort remaining relatively steady. Among those aged 18 to 34, Labor is up from 31% in the pre-election poll to 44% and the Coalition are down from 27% to 19%, with the Greens up one to 23%. Among those 55 and over, Labor is up from 33% to 42%, the Coalition is down from 46% to 37%, and the Greens are down from 5% to 4%. In between, Labor is up from 34% to 39%, the Coalition is down from 32% to 29%, and the Greens are down from 12% to 11%. The polls were conducted April 12 to 16, May 10 to 14 and June 6 to 11, with a combined national sample of 4587.
Thank God the government has Old Man TPOF around to set things straight.
Player One says:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 12:21 pm
frednk @ #1232 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 11:54 am
Do you have 2.1 children to look after you in old age?
What is you solution for those that don’t?
Your solution is to import people to look after you in your old age? Seriously?
____________________
We already do.
https://www.racgp.org.au/health-of-the-nation/chapter-2-general-practice-access/2-2-gp-workforce#Figure22
zoomster: Of course. I’m not writing them off yet. But the rhetoric has been very focused on the Liberal wrongdoing, and I’ve heard unusually little about interest in implementing the recommendations.
I also didn’t say anything about wanting further haste in “going after the miscreants”, so that bit was reacting to something entirely imagined. Of course, proper process has to take its course, but one of the reasons I’m more interested in the systemic stuff is that (like a lot of people) I don’t believe anything of substance will happen to anyone apart from Musolino and Campbell inevitably getting fired.
zoomster @ #978 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 12:08 pm
Labor people should stop jumping at shadows and being pathetically fragile.
”
Mavissays:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 12:04 pm
To give him his due, Dutton has apologised to those who were adversely affected by robodebt – Aunty
”
Although he was in the Cabinet and agrees with punishing “welfare cheats” policy, he was the neither the architect nor the implementor of Robodebt scheme.
Morrison, Tudge, Porter and Stuart are yet apologise and show any sort of remorse for their actions.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 12:30 pm
zoomster @ #978 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 12:08 pm
“‘When parties only care about marginalised people when they think it’s a way to get one up on their opponents, it’s really bloody obvious.’
Which is why the Greens’ media release caused such concern.”
Labor people should stop jumping at shadows and being pathetically fragile.
_____________________
Loving the Rexology 🙂
Late Riser, it is the way of social media attempts from the early days of Compuserve and UseNet – things start out civil and trustworthy, but inevitable degradation into flame wars and arse-hattery.
UseNet never recovered from the clown who decided to honour Joey Ramone’s death by constructing a visual tribute by creating a slew of channels to spell it out – which would appear at the top of everyone’s subsequent views.
How much moderating can a volunteer community do, without losing the attraction of immediate info and response fix which people want? This is where savvy tech companies can invest in the social license to protect the franchise. Very hard for the mastadons and start-ups of this world, within a global rules-based order.
Dutton being lauded in his home State…. Feeding the chooks.
Peter Dutton has ruled out asking for Scott Morrison’s resignation after scathing findings into the failed robodebt scheme were handed down, bemoaning the “politicisation” of the report.
The Liberal Party leader was greeted by a standing ovation as he addressed party faithful at the LNP State Conference in Brisbane at the weekend.
During his speech, Mr Dutton accused the sitting government of leading the country “down the path of division” with the upcoming Voice to parliament referendum.
“We need practical action,” he told thousands of supporters.
“We are proposing a path of unity, that is first achieved by the Prime Minister stepping back from what he sees as his moment in history.” .
……….
But Mr Dutton seemed to brush off suggestions Mr Morrison should go, instead cautioning Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Government Services Minister Bill Shorten against their “glee” and politicisation of the findings.
He instead pointed to statements Mr Morrison and the other ministers had made at the time the findings were handed down.
“When the problems were brought to the attention of the government at the time, the program was stopped,” Mr Dutton told reporters.
“I’m sorry to those people adversely affected, I truly am.”
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/peter-dutton-rules-out-asking-for-scott-morrisons-resignation-over-robodebt-findings-warns-of-politicisation/news-story/0fb3e62d036cefd0c1d6d4dceaa39e35
Kathryn Campbell gives a great deal of weight to the adage that first impressions are not often wrong.
Rebecca says:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 12:24 pm
TPOF: Second half of this article: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/07/how-the-coalition-collaborated-with-friendly-media-to-silence-robodebt-victims
______________________________________
So basically it was the reporter’s interpretation of what Albanese said.
nath says:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 12:26 pm
Thank God the government has Old Man TPOF around to set things straight.
___________________________________________
Ah, the Malisa Golightly of PB provides intellectual input.
What a disgusting nonpology from Dutton. No shame whatsoever.
TPOF: No reasonable person would bet money on them implementing that recommendation given those comments.
Also, I don’t much care for nath’s takes either, but “Malisa Golightly”, today of all days? That’s off, dude.
Rebecca
Also, I don’t much care for nath’s takes either, but “Malisa Golightly”, today of all days? That’s off, dude
______________________________
Living or dead, a bully is a bully.
The Age. July 2019.
The Victorian state Labor MP involved in a disturbance at a Canberra hotel on Thursday morning has stepped aside to deal with drug and alcohol issues.
Mr Fowles was questioned after officers were called to the Abode hotel where the Burwood MP had a disagreement with staff over access to his luggage.
_____________________
The Chinese better take care of his luggage, otherwise he will kick thier door in.
Allowing him to go off on a overseas junket has trouble written all over it.
Get ready DFAT.
TPOF. It’ never going to work. Try as you might, C@t is never going to take pity on you and your unrequited love.
The RoboDebt scheme is rightly regarded as one of the worst cases of public administration in Australian history. The policy was misconceived, immensely harmful, and deliberately maintained for years by lies from Ministers and senior public servants. It was not merely misguided – it was corrupt – and it was wholly executed by the Morrison Government. I hope there will be criminal charges against the Ministers and senior public servants responsible. If current law makes that impossible, the law should be changed to require much more from powerful people.
At the same time there are broader systemic and structural factors that made this abuse of power possible. Income support recipients have been demonized for decades, by both the LNP and the ALP, with the active support of the mainstream media, especially corporate-owned media. It has for decades been a bipartisan article of faith that income support for the unemployed should be much lower than the poverty line. That was a policy choice, not a necessity. Both LNP Governments and ALP Governments have treated poor people as inherently untrustworthy. Both LNP Governments and ALP Governments have, since the mid-1970s, abandoned full employment as a policy goal.
If you are the currency-issuing government and you DON’T guarantee a job to everyone who wants one – if your fiscal policies guarantee that a significant number of people will either be unemployed or under-employed – you don’t have the right to blame those people for their plight. You don’t have the right to be miserly with income support payments.
All income support payments – whether it’s for the unemployed, for single parents, for students, for the retired, for people with disabilities, for people who are sick – must at least match the Henderson Report definition of the poverty line. Before the inflation of the last few years that was somewhere around $620 per week for a single person. What we really need is a policy commitment to full employment, backed up by a Job Guarantee, combined with adequate income support. The federal government should also do everything in its power to put downward pressure on the prices of houses, rents, fuel, utilities, and groceries. It shouldn’t be the role of the federal government to inflate house prices to help some people to accumulate wealth while others don’t even have their basic needs met.
This Royal Commission report is a valuable historical document. It is erudite and excoriating at the same time. It is well-researched and it exposes important truths. I hope we can have a similar level of thoroughness applied to the broader policy decisions that made the whole scandal possible in the first place.
ironic for dutton to be complaining about aroil comition designed to hurt the coalition including his clos friendsgtudge and porter i remember tonuy Abbot set up a roiil comition in to trade unions to triy and get shortin
in stead it managed to damage the liberals friend Cathy jackson from health survices union and former victorian mp Cesar melhem who took over from shortin how ever when the faction with somyurek fall finaly had the numbers to end his corear last year the abc wilingham and the herald sun ran melhem pleading forAndrews complaining pleading for andrews to save his seat and his alliesdespite being find buy the courts for ripping of workers
Ven:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 12:32 pm
[‘Morrison, Tudge, Porter and Stuart are yet apologise and show any sort of remorse for their actions.’]
That would be like getting blood out of a stone. That said, an apology is often wrongly seen as being legally predjucial. In my home state of Queensland, under Parts 1 and 1A of Chapter 4 of the Civil Liability Act 2003, an apology has these effects:
It does not express or imply an admission of fault or liability;
and
Is not relevant to how liability should be determined in the case.
I presume other jurisdictions would have similar provisions.
nath @ #1097 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 1:03 pm
Piss off, nath. You’re just jealous.
Rebecca
‘…How hard would it be to go after the individuals who did this…’
Sorry, I took this as suggesting that the government should go after the individuals who did this.
My bad.
Love how entitled, born to rule men like Morrison and Dutton get to judge a RC report… And just dismiss it.
They should be ashamed to show their faces in public again. Dutton should be grovelling for forgiveness of his governments actions.
During his speech, Mr Dutton accused the sitting government of leading the country “down the path of division” with the upcoming Voice to parliament referendum.
“We need practical action,” he told thousands of supporters.
They had 10 years and Indigenous Australians went backwards on virtually all measures in Closing the Gap.
We found out how much his mob really care about Indigenous Australians via the No ad in the AFR this week. Less than zero. I saw Peter Dutton care more about White South African Farmers than I did the most downtrodden people in his own country.
Torchbearer @ #1104 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 1:25 pm
I can just imagine the purple-faced rage and spittle-flecked spluttering and condemnation of Labor that would have come out of the same mouths if the Royal Commission into Bill Shorten and Julia Gillard had found even a skerrick of impropriety associated with either of them.
Griff @ #1088 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 12:33 pm
Someone should remind Integrity how many times the Coalition, and how many Coalition Ministers, were mentioned in The Greens press release about the Robodebt RC Report versus how many times Labor and Labor Ministers are mentioned. Integrity doesn’t have a leg to stand on.
Rebecca @ #1065 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 11:58 am
Tell it to The Greens. I didn’t put out their press release.
You let The Greens off too lightly, but spring into action to warn Labor supporters off criticising them, justly. Why is that, Rebecca?
MelbourneMammoth @ #1074 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 12:14 pm
A not entirely unexpected comment from you. 😐
Torchbearer @ #1271 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 1:25 pm
Hartcher contrasted the response of the Dutch Govt in his piece this morning.
“It may be that the evidence in this royal commission has gone some way to changing public perceptions. But largely, those attitudes are set by politicians, who need to abandon for good (in every sense) the narrative of taxpayer versus welfare recipient.”
The only way this can begin to happen is if the Peter Dutton leadership of the Coalition is well and truly smashed at the next federal election.
”During his speech, Mr Dutton accused the sitting government of leading the country “down the path of division” with the upcoming Voice to parliament referendum.”
Accuse your opponent of what you yourself are doing. Accusation in a mirror, a classic fascist ploy.
(Back from shopping. Sorry for the delay.)
sprocket_, I hope Twitter doesn’t die, despite Musk’s strategic blindness. There are good things in it still. And I hope Threads succeeds, despite my dislike of Zuckerberg. There will be good there too. And because of that I hope Meta eventually change tack and adopt an accepted federated message protocol, like ActivityPub.
As you say, tech companies can invest in their social license (i.e., market themselves) in a way small players can’t. And Threads, while it clearly is a start-up, is backed by a giant, though that’s no guarantee of long-term success. Look to Microsoft for any number of failures in the long-term.
But Mastodon isn’t a startup. It’s been around for a while. (Like mammals underfoot the dinosaurs?) I’ve read there are a few million users, spread over thousands of individual servers. It is stable and growing slowly. (With the exception of rapid growth in Q4 2022 from an influx of hopeful ex-twitter colonizers.) So far at least the volunteers are doing nicely, and the would-be colonists have been absorbed. Threads is yet to face that problem. The many hands model can work. And while I’m not sure what “global rules-based order” means in the context of the Internet, cheekily, maybe it includes ActivityPub?
Steve777 @ #1279 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 1:40 pm
Dutton genuinely wants unity.
He wants people to abandon their traditional cultures and join him to live as one in the traditional conservative Christian sense under a capitalist Govt.
Griff @ #1251 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 12:26 pm
You expect to need 2.1 GPs to look after you? You must be really sick.
Tony Wright sums up Morrison perfectly at the end of his piece.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/robo-debt-commissioner-searches-for-compassion-finds-nothing-there-20230706-p5dm76.html
Unbelievable cheek on behalf of Dutton to talk about politicising the robo royal commission when you had the Dyson commission designed to “vacuum” up Bill Shorten or maybe “Get Shorty”. The pink bats RC another example of the LNPs nasty vindictiveness. To pin the deaths of some young fellows on Rudd and Garrett was just out of this world, yet here we have suicides directly associated with the LNP governments shock and awe campaign to get some downward envy on the boil ( with the help of the murdochracy – surprise surprise). This whole affair is beyond shameful and Scomoes involvement speaks volumes about what sort of Christian he is.
Player One says:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 1:49 pm
Griff @ #1251 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 12:26 pm
Player One says:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 12:21 pm
frednk @ #1232 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 11:54 am
Do you have 2.1 children to look after you in old age?
What is you solution for those that don’t?
Your solution is to import people to look after you in your old age? Seriously?
____________________
We already do.
https://www.racgp.org.au/health-of-the-nation/chapter-2-general-practice-access/2-2-gp-workforce#Figure22
You expect to need 2.1 GPs to look after you? You must be really sick.
____________________
Yes. That is precisely what that data point indicates. You should pat yourself on the back! Looking forward to your next trick 🙂
shellbell @ #1168 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 7:37 am
Dodgy accounting if value can be attributed to declaring a non-debt void; the (non-)creditor was owed nothing and will get nothing, so their cost can only be $0.
In related news I just made a multi-million dollar charitable donation to the Australian public. I was going to rob a bank, and then decided not to. That’s how it works, right; my expected proceeds get counted as a credit towards whomever I didn’t steal them from?
Princeplanet @ #1117 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 2:05 pm
Hit the nail well and truly on the head, Pp.
Steve777 @ #1112 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 1:40 pm
Does he think we can’t see what he is doing? Is he thinking that he is such a great orator that he can get people to believe that up is down?
Money very well spent:
[‘The special counsel investigating former President Donald Trump’s refusal to return classified documents as well as key aspects of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol siege, has spent $5.4 million on his tasks so far, according to a newly published financial report about his first months in office.
More than half of the money expended by Jack Smith, a former war crimes prosecutor who also once led the Justice Department unit that investigates public corruption, covered salaries for lawyers and other DOJ employees. Another $1.6 million went to litigation or investigative support, the new filing said.
Smith, who has been receiving threats, is protected by a security detail from the U.S. Marshals Service. His office spent $1.9 million in salaries for marshals through March 31 of this year, the Justice Department said.’]
https://www.npr.org/2023/07/07/1186427366/special-counsel-has-spent-millions-investigating-trump
Commissioner Catherine Holmes:
This is a crucial point. On most policy issues public opinion is heavily shaped by what politicians say. Public opinion isn’t static – it is malleable. Therefore politicians should be making the case for what is right, or most likely to be right. They shouldn’t use public opinion as an excuse for failing to address a problem. Public opinion about a policy that hasn’t been implemented yet and that few people with a large public platform are calling for is not a good indicator of what is politically possible.
Policies that have served us well, and that are seen as common sense today, often began as ideas that weren’t popular. Not because people were inherently opposed to them, but because they had never heard a strong case for them. We don’t have mandatory seat belt laws today because that concept was always popular. We don’t have low carbon monoxide levels in car exhaust because the public was clamouring for the specific regulations that massively reduced air pollution and suicide rates. It is the job of politicians to anticipate what is needed and to make the case for the required changes. We definitely need big changes to economic policy – changes that go beyond tinkering with monetary policy, or adding token amounts of public housing, or lifting income support payments to slightly less woeful levels. The narrative should be about economic rights and how to secure those rights for everyone.
Ven said;
‘Morrison, Tudge, Porter and Stuart are yet apologise and show any sort of remorse for their actions.’
These arseholes will know exactly the situation they have landed in. Note that Morrison, while hiding in Europe, had a lawyer issue a lengthy rebuttal not long after the report was released. All would have engaged lawyers before the release and all would probably be advised to shut up and say nothing. Morrison being Morrison couldn’t help himself but I doubt we will hear much more from any of them.
In the unlikely event that someone ends up in the slammer over this I hope it’s Morrison.
Princeplanet 2.05pm
“ The pink bats RC another example of the LNPs nasty vindictiveness. To pin the deaths of some young fellows on Rudd and Garrett was just out of this world, yet here we have suicides directly associated with the LNP governments shock and awe campaign to get some downward envy on the boil ( with the help of the murdochracy – surprise surprise).”
As concise a summary of Dutton’s hypocrisy as I have read anywhere.
I’m finding Daffy Dutton very amusing. If he’s so upset about the timing of the by-election and the release of rhe Robodebt report so upsetting why didn’t:
1. Convey that to the speaker when the date was set as per the parliament policy and procedures for by elections?
2. Think a bit harder around the timing of Roberts resignation?
Given the extension of the reporting date was granted before Roberts official resignation letter to the speaker it’s almost like their parliamentary tactics committee have absolutely no idea….oh wait
if renyalds is so kean to silents higgins maybi lehrmann is guiltty of somthing the tacdicks comity are not very smart morrison lost the election largely due to being in sensative to woaman duttons responseis to get his female senaters and ley to double down in attacking higgins given thesherif a police officer find the jurers imfo but didnt the afp against the prosecution then dutton claims this is albanese voice when it is the voice of the indiginis people maybi labor could launch investergation in to the leaking of awu raids to media and whiy the afp waisted time investergating a donation to get up from 2005
but given labor lacks the couridge to sack mike pezzulo the incompetent home affairs chief who forgot to tell oniel for 6 months our manis island contract ran out and re appointed abottt to the war memorial hopefuly they can dump bassi from aspi and cathryn campbell from publick service
Tingle strips away all the BS of current day politics…
I have just caught up with articles in the Guardian. Apparently Tudge, Porter, and Robert have denied being notified that they copped a mention in the sealed section of the RC report, and Morrison refuses to say.
I wonder if that means he did get a mention and he is in Europe trying to find some real estate in a place that doesn’t have an extredition treaty with us.
Has Taylormade had anything to say about Robodebt since the report was released?
The comment about countries without extradition treaties with Australia was sarcasm, but apparently most of the former Yugoslavia is in that category. ASIO should pick him up before he skips across the Adriatic.
OMFG!
https://youtu.be/c3byogy8Low