Resolve Strategic state and age breakdowns (open thread)

Polling breakdowns suggests federal Labor remains dominant in WA, and has gained most since the election at the younger and older end of the age scale.

It seems there is little to offer this week in the way of federal polling, my suggestion in the previous post that we might see a Resolve Strategic poll and Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns probably being a week premature. We did get quarterly breakdowns, courtesy of the Age/Herald on Sunday, but from Resolve Strategic rather than Newspoll – which don’t tell us much we did not already know, as breakdowns by gender and for the three biggest states are included with the monthly results. They do, however, include fresh state results for Western Australia and South Australia and age cohort breakdowns.

Labor has been polling exceptionally well in Resolve Strategic over the period in question, which is reflected in the WA and SA results. In the former case, the primary votes are Labor 46%, Coalition 29%, Greens 12% and One Nation 3%, compared with election results of Labor 36.8%, Coalition 34.8%, Greens 12.5% and One Nation 4.0%, which was sufficient to gain Labor four seats in the state. In the latter, the primary votes from the poll are Labor 46%, Coalition 22%, Greens 14% and One Nation 6%, compared with Labor 34.5%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 12.8% and One Nation 4.8% at the election.

The age breakdowns suggest the Coalition’s deterioration since the election has been concentrated among the young and old, with the middle-age cohort remaining relatively steady. Among those aged 18 to 34, Labor is up from 31% in the pre-election poll to 44% and the Coalition are down from 27% to 19%, with the Greens up one to 23%. Among those 55 and over, Labor is up from 33% to 42%, the Coalition is down from 46% to 37%, and the Greens are down from 5% to 4%. In between, Labor is up from 34% to 39%, the Coalition is down from 32% to 29%, and the Greens are down from 12% to 11%. The polls were conducted April 12 to 16, May 10 to 14 and June 6 to 11, with a combined national sample of 4587.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,363 comments on “Resolve Strategic state and age breakdowns (open thread)”

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  1. Q: ‘PwC to repay $800,000 for work on robodebt after damning royal commission report’..

    Nice try PWC…..

    The response should be the Government made an agreement for a report in good faith, and paid you for it.
    Please hand over the report NOW……..

    We need to see what exactly the LNP were ‘buying’ from PWC.

  2. Torchbearer

    Correct. If there is no report PwC submitted a fraudulent claim for payment.

    Whilst money is no substitute for the losses of parents whose Robodebt targeted children committed suicide, I hope any class actions chasing this sham for compensation do not leave out PwC. They have deep pockets and some culpability.

  3. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 8:57 am
    The problem I have with TikTok is that it is visual. And I don’t do visual.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    98.6 says :
    Thanks for that, I felt the same way but could not work out why till now.

  4. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 9:55 am
    citizen @ #1029 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 9:54 am

    Perhaps Musk will chuck in a free Tesla for people who remain loyal to Twitter?

    Nope. Still won’t get me.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    98.6 says :
    I’ve never been on Twitter but I will gladly sign up for a free Tesla.

  5. Speaking of freebees, Ms 98.6 and I once got free phones from One.Tel when the Packer and Murdoch company went broke.
    I think once we received our phones we were only signed up for 5 minutes before One.Tel hit the fan.

  6. Rebecca says:
    Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 12:24 pm
    TPOF: Second half of this article: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/07/how-the-coalition-collaborated-with-friendly-media-to-silence-robodebt-victims
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    98.6 says :
    I read the guardian article and found this :

    The commissioner, Catherine Holmes, said in her report that Tudge’s then media adviser, Rachelle Miller, developed a media strategy to introduce a “counter narrative” in “more friendly media” that was focused on “cracking down” on welfare cheats.

    Can’t you just imagine the pillow talk between Tudge and Rachelle Miller during their many trysts where they developed their media strategy ?

  7. Robo-debt bureaucrat on leave amid doubts over her $900k job

    Former top public servant Kathryn Campbell went on leave from her $900,000 a year job with the Defence Department last week – a day before the robo-debt royal commission made damning findings against her.

    There are now doubts within Defence over whether Campbell will return from leave after the royal commission made a range of scathing findings including that she repeatedly failed to act when the scheme’s flaws and illegality became apparent.
    ……….
    Senior Defence sources confirmed that Campbell was on leave from her role with Defence on Thursday and Friday as the damning findings were handed down by royal commissioner Catherine Holmes, SC.
    ……………
    The royal commission found that Campbell kept the true nature of the income-averaging scheme secret when advising cabinet because she knew then-social services minister Morrison wanted to pursue the program.

    It also found Campbell deliberately instructed her own legal team to discontinue a request for legal advice on the scheme and that she shelved a damning $1 million audit by PwC into the welfare crackdown just as it was about to finish because she feared its contents would be damaging.

    Multiple senior members of the Albanese government and the public service, who were not authorised to speak publicly, said they believed Campbell would have to resign from her role with Defence or would eventually be forced out.

    Attempts to contact Campbell on Saturday were unsuccessful. She has not publicly stated if she disputes any of the findings.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/robo-debt-public-servant-on-leave-amid-doubts-over-whether-she-will-stay-in-900k-job-20230707-p5dmn4.html

  8. 98.6 @ #1348 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 10:52 pm

    Roughly 3,300 people in Fadden may have been adversely affected by RoboDebt.
    Which party will they vote for ?

    The aspirational one that says that they, too can be multi-millionaires (and all it takes is giving lower taxes and preferential treatment to those who already are).

  9. They seek her here
    They seek her there
    Her victims seek her everywhere

    Is she in hiding
    Or gone down a well
    That damned elusive Ms Campbell

  10. Two notes of interest: UK Prime Minister Sunak discourages the use of cluster bombs and has stated the UK will not be providing this evil weapon to Ukraine. To become as your enemy to defeat your enemy is a morally bankrupt argument. The Pope (who took his name after Saint Francis of Assisi, who cared about poor people, stowaways and preached multiple sermons about caring for animals*) is going to meet with Julian Assange’s wife, Stella Assange. Hopefully, this will bring more pressure to bear on the US government.

    *I really like animals.

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