It seems there is little to offer this week in the way of federal polling, my suggestion in the previous post that we might see a Resolve Strategic poll and Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns probably being a week premature. We did get quarterly breakdowns, courtesy of the Age/Herald on Sunday, but from Resolve Strategic rather than Newspoll – which don’t tell us much we did not already know, as breakdowns by gender and for the three biggest states are included with the monthly results. They do, however, include fresh state results for Western Australia and South Australia and age cohort breakdowns.
Labor has been polling exceptionally well in Resolve Strategic over the period in question, which is reflected in the WA and SA results. In the former case, the primary votes are Labor 46%, Coalition 29%, Greens 12% and One Nation 3%, compared with election results of Labor 36.8%, Coalition 34.8%, Greens 12.5% and One Nation 4.0%, which was sufficient to gain Labor four seats in the state. In the latter, the primary votes from the poll are Labor 46%, Coalition 22%, Greens 14% and One Nation 6%, compared with Labor 34.5%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 12.8% and One Nation 4.8% at the election.
The age breakdowns suggest the Coalition’s deterioration since the election has been concentrated among the young and old, with the middle-age cohort remaining relatively steady. Among those aged 18 to 34, Labor is up from 31% in the pre-election poll to 44% and the Coalition are down from 27% to 19%, with the Greens up one to 23%. Among those 55 and over, Labor is up from 33% to 42%, the Coalition is down from 46% to 37%, and the Greens are down from 5% to 4%. In between, Labor is up from 34% to 39%, the Coalition is down from 32% to 29%, and the Greens are down from 12% to 11%. The polls were conducted April 12 to 16, May 10 to 14 and June 6 to 11, with a combined national sample of 4587.
Taylormade says:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 12:58 pm
The Age. July 2019.
The Victorian state Labor MP involved in a disturbance at a Canberra hotel on Thursday morning has stepped aside to deal with drug and alcohol issues.
Mr Fowles was questioned after officers were called to the Abode hotel where the Burwood MP had a disagreement with staff over access to his luggage.
_____________________
The Chinese better take care of his luggage, otherwise he will kick thier door in.
Allowing him to go off on a overseas junket has trouble written all over it.
Get ready DFAT.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
‘thier’ ‘thier’ ‘thier’ you go!
‘PwC to repay $800,000 for work on robodebt after damning royal commission report’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/08/pwc-to-repay-800000-for-work-on-robodebt-after-damning-royal-commission-report
‘Resolutions debated at the [LNP Queensland] conference on Friday included … a move to make the ABC a “patriotic” broadcaster.’
The last refuge of the scoundrels.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/08/peter-dutton-concedes-individuals-made-mistakes-on-robodebt-but-warns-against-trial-by-media
Preview of what Patriotic ABC News would be like.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70o6xDfGpe8
Sidenote, that’s a pretty good impression of Rowan Dean.
“President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has secured Turkey’s crucial backing for Ukraine’s Nato aspirations, though Joe Biden said he did not think there was “unanimity” among alliance members that it should join during Russia’s invasion.
As the war entered its 500th day on Saturday, Zelenskiy hailed progress from talks in Istanbul with counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He said: “I am grateful to Turkey for its constant support of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. I believe that, together, we can do even more, saving lives and protecting stability.” …
… But while reaffirming his longstanding call for peace negotiations, Erdoğan told reporters at a joint media appearance with Zelenskiy in Istanbul: “There is no doubt that Ukraine deserves membership of Nato.””
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/08/ukraine-wins-turkeys-backing-for-nato-membership-but-biden-urges-caution-on-timing
When then time comes, after this war concludes, to admit Ukraine into NATO, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán will be a very isolated figure if he tries to stand in the way.
Cartoon from Kyiv:
“The Kremlin’s Fake Show Begins the Final Act”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/19197
Looks like they’re dusting off those reels of ‘Swan Lake’…
Anthony Galloway has just posted a story where he says Anthony Albanese has accused Scott Morrison of failing to show any contrition over his role in the robo-debt saga after the royal commission into the scheme made adverse findings against him.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-accuses-morrison-of-showing-no-contrition-over-robo-debt-20230707-p5dmn4.html?btis=
This article has me a bit concerned.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/it-gives-me-chills-dams-are-brimming-and-towns-devastated-by-flooding-are-again-on-edge-20230706-p5dmd7.html
Thanks to climate change, all of this is a gamble. Reservoirs are full for winter, so what to do about that? Keep all of it and risk flooding if a sudden heavy rain event occurs? Or drain them and risk wasting it when it would be needed through a possibly catastrophic El Nino summer? Nobody can know this far in advance.
From Barrie Cassidy. “Now that the true depth and cruelty of this appalling episode is confirmed the political media should review why some allowed themselves to be used, why others lacked curiosity and why most underreported the royal commission.”
So, so true
[‘But Mr Dutton seemed to brush off suggestions Mr Morrison should go, instead cautioning Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Government Services Minister Bill Shorten against their “glee” and politicisation of the findings.’]
A quintessential example of projection. Dutton has no shame, neither is he displaying any real sign of accepting the fact that he was a senior cabinet minister during the Robodebt fiasco. Unless the Tory Party finds a moderate to lead them, they could well go the way of the UAP – inimical to a well-functioning democracy. In my view, someone like Archer is capable of restoring the Liberal brand.
BK @ #1308 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 6:43 pm
I don’t recall Insiders giving it much attention. From memory it was the Guardian which first reported that most of the ‘debts’ were over cooked.
Mavis @ #1309 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 6:43 pm
Well Barrie, can you point to any occasions where YOU brought it to the public’s attention, given you were a senior political journalist through most of the debacle
A lot of blame shifting going on at the moment in the media political complex.
ajm:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 7:01 pm
[‘A lot of blame shifting going on at the moment in the media political complex.’]
That’s politics though I think that given Dutton doesn’t impress women, it’s only a matter of time until he’ll be given the chop.
C@tmomma: As I said, the Greens were merely repeating the same calls for systemic change that had already originated with a bunch of the groups who ran the anti-Robodebt campaign.
Given that most of the people mad about it seem to agree with me that any significant actual action against any of the key players is unlikely, I’m not ever going to be mad about people looking to the future and hoping some actual change comes out of this.
Getting overly excited about going through the motions of saying exactly the same (true) things about Tudge, Morrison, et al that the Greens, Labor and everyone else have already said about three thousand times (when everyone doing it knows that absolutely nothing is going to happen to them as a result) feels a bit meaningless when one could be focusing on making sure something actually changes to make it less likely to ever happen again.
As for “the only way [perceptions toward welfare recipients changing] can begin to happen is if the Peter Dutton leadership of the Coalition is well and truly smashed at the next federal election”, Labor’s yet to commit to actually implementing the recommendations, and it’s not like there’s been all that much daylight in their attitudes in the last 15 years otherwise. “We didn’t literally do Robodebt” is setting the absolute lowest conceivable bar. If the status quo continues, it paves the way for similar stuff the next time the Liberals get back in office.
Conditions not favouring Aus this morning at Leeds. Makes losing those 4 wickets yesterdsy the more frustrating.
As for Dutton….. “glee”? The f’ing C.
“the Guardian which first reported that most of the ‘debts’ were over cooked”
It was widely reported on social media before the Guardian came to the party, as usual. The Saturday Paper is the standout in Robodebt coverage in the traditional media.
N”
Mavissays:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 6:43 pm
[‘But Mr Dutton seemed to brush off suggestions Mr Morrison should go, instead cautioning Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Government Services Minister Bill Shorten against their “glee” and politicisation of the findings.’]
A quintessential example of projection. Dutton has no shame, neither is he displaying any real sign of accepting the fact that he was a senior cabinet minister during the Robodebt fiasco. Unless the Tory Party finds a moderate to lead them, they could well go the way of the UAP – inimical to a well-functioning democracy. In my view, someone like Archer is capable of restoring the Liberal brand.
”
Mavis
I disagree with you that a “moderate” can restore Liberals reputation.
The Liberal party at State and Federal level needs to be thoroughly defeated so that they dissolve and a proper centre-right party is born from that ashes. There is no redemption for the current party. It is completely debauched.
Netball is a hard game to watch. Partly it is all this screaming for big games indoors. But I have watched a lot and I reckon there is an age sweet spot of about 13yo. Before, they don’t get the game and not enough skill. After, it is too much contact and whistles.
This super shot is just stupes. Either allow it all game or ditch it.
Mavis @ #1309 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 6:43 pm
Agreed, but (unlike Menzies) Archer doesn’t have Murdoch & Packer (Pere) as puppet masters. The LNP are permanently fucked – which is just considering what they did with power.
Sohar @ #1315 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 7:31 pm
Bullshit. Knaus & Henriques-Gomes broke this in the G in Dec 2016 – before the Saturday Paper flew.
Asher Wolf on Twitter was one of the first to highlight the Robodebt letters.
“[Peter Dutton] cautioning Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Government Services Minister Bill Shorten against their “glee” and politicisation of the findings”
Coming from the leader of a party that’s politicised everything from industrial accidents (Batts), asylum seeker drownings, Covid deaths in aged care, the plight of the unemployed, the “War on Terror”, trans people, efforts to address indigenous recognition, etc etc etc. Basically anything that’s not nailed down and anything that is, bugger the effects on actual people.
And who the **** gleeful? Not only projection but making stuff up to evade responsibility and deflect attention.
The man and his Party is a disgrace. The “Liberal” party has learned nothing from its defeat and now from the crushing findings of the Robodebt Royal Commission. It is no longer fit for purpose. It deserves to go the way of the historic UAP and I hope it does, sooner rather than later.
well if fowles cant goon the trip what about david davis who is still in shadowcabenit only a junier person now has been in victorian parliament since 1996 but will not retire
Not a fan of the music at the netball either but the Maggie Bathysphere commentary is good stuff.
The overall reaction of the Coalition in regards to robodebt findings faintly reminds me of the confrontation between WW2 British Brigadier Derek Mills-Roberts with German Field Marshal Erhard Milch after the discovery of the Bergen-Belsen concentration camp.
When Mills-Roberts vented about how outraged he was about the conditions, Milch replied “These people are not human beings in the same way as you and I.”, in which Mills-Roberts took his field marshal baton and savagely beat him with it.
I’m not saying that most people in the Coalition have a similar view of unemployed people as Milch had with those camp inmates, but, there are uncomfortable similarities.
As I recall, the Saturday Paper’s Robodebt coverage was of no particular significance until they recruited Rick Morton in 2019, who then doggedly covered it. Other outlets had been on it for years by that point.
Ven:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 7:35 pm
[‘I disagree with you that a “moderate” can restore Liberals reputation.
The Liberal party at State and Federal level needs to be thoroughly defeated so that they dissolve and a proper centre-right party is born from that ashes. There is no redemption for the current party. It is completely debauched.’]
I agree with you that one moderate won’t achieve much change to the status quo but it’s a start. I further think that once Dutton’s deposed, as he’ll surely will be, a liberal leader will come forth.
_______________________________________
rhwombat:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 7:38 pm
Mavis @ #1309 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 6:43 pm
[‘Agreed, but (unlike Menzies) Archer doesn’t have Murdoch & Packer (Pere) as puppet masters. The LNP are permanently fucked – which is just considering what they did with power.’]
No argment there, only suggesting that Murdoch is not as young as he used to be. Pepsy.
Pop quiz –
Does Simon Benson win (in a crowded field) the coveted Most Useless Journalist Ever award? As far as I can tell his contribution to public life consists of:
1. Taking soft drops on robodebt that managed to miss the actual story and just mindlessly reproduce lies about it ‘Backfiring On Labor’;
2. Being so dumb he stenographered the Scomo multiple ministries story in a book as some evidence of Scomo’s genius (and getting a massive woody on his Unprecedented Access(TM) ) and thus totally missing the actual story of the greatest constitutional crisis in Australia since 1975.
Wow. He is quite the Dunning-Kruger of the Fourth Estate.
As I recall, the Saturday Paper’s Robodebt coverage was of no particular significance until they recruited Rick Morton in 2019, who then doggedly covered it. Other outlets had been on it for years by that point.
________
Rebecca
The Guardian’s Luke Henriques-Gomes dis a great job covering the story over several tears.
RUSSIANS KILL SIX MORE UKRAINIAN CIVILIANS:
“At least six killed after Russian shelling in Lyman, says governor
At least six people have been killed and another five injured in Lyman in Ukraine‘s eastern Donetsk region on Saturday, Pavlo Kyrylenko, the regional governor, said.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jul/08/russia-ukraine-war-live-ukraine-makes-tactically-significant-gains-in-bakhmut-says-us-thinktank-as-war-enters-500th-day
The “Liberal” party did install a moderate as leader, Malcolm Turnbull, twice in fact. He was kept on a very tight leash and in the end had little effect on the policy or direction of the party. Basically just a more electable front man for what has been for thirty years a solidly right-wing outfit.
Anyone who thinks the federal Liberals are going to install a moderate as leader after Dutton goes, or any time in the foreseeable future, is absolutely kidding themselves. They don’t even have anyone in shadow cabinet who’d be a viable candidate that could get the support of the party.
The closest thing to a “moderate” Liberal leader we’re going to get in the next decade is when Andrew Hastie gets his turn, and yes, I know exactly how bad Hastie is.
Kirsdarke, I did not know that anecdote. Thankyou.
Geetroit: “Does Simon Benson win (in a crowded field) the coveted Most Useless Journalist Ever award?”
He’s well connected with the Coalition leadership.
In more than one sense of the word ‘connected’ …
Mavis says:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 8:03 pm
Ven:
”””””””
I agree with you that one moderate won’t achieve much change to the status quo but it’s a start. I further think that once Dutton’s deposed, as he’ll surely will be, a liberal leader will come forth.
_________________________________________
Dutton will be deposed by someone just as bad. There is no prospect of the LNP electing a moderate.
At the moment the leader of the LNP senior coalition party and the leader of the LNP second coalition party are both members of the one party – the LNP. This is a massive con job! But nothing is going to change. I look forward to the ALP leadership chortling over Dutton’s demise. His replacement could be just as bad, if not worse. Hastie is just a prettier version of the ____________ from Marketing.
Mavis
“ I agree with you that one moderate won’t achieve much change to the status quo but it’s a start. I further think that once Dutton’s deposed, as he’ll surely will be, a liberal leader will come forth.”
I agree with you on Dutton but I don’t know about what comes after. To me Dutton is a symptom of the problem, which extends beyond him. Dutton’s attitudes are shared with the majority of the religious fundamentalists who voted him into leadership.
To me the questions we must ask of the Liberals are how many moderates are left(?) and how long before an uncompromised moderate advances far enough up the party structure to become leader? I don’t think we have an obvious modern Liberal leader in sight now.
Howard started the purge of moderates in the late 90s. Abbott and the catholic far right faction carried it on in the 2000s and then Morrison and the pentecostal far right faction in the 2010s. To me the important thing is that these factions show no sign of changing, despite now controlling the Liberal party.
Here in SA a country Liberal MP just resigned because he could not agree with the pentecostal faction that has actually increased its control of the SA branch of the Liberal party, despite badly losing the last SA state election only 14 months ago.
Rebecca says:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 7:57 pm
As I recall, the Saturday Paper’s Robodebt coverage was of no particular significance until they recruited Rick Morton in 2019, who then doggedly covered it. Other outlets had been on it for years by that point.
______________________________________
The Saturday Paper published an article about the suicide of Rhys Cauzzo in February 2017, which so upset Tudge and Rachelle Miller that they got information from the department about Cauzzo that they then supplied to Simon Benson.
Spare a thought for those defending Ukraine today. July 8 marks the 500th day of fighting since the start of the full scale Russian invasion.
It is nine years since the first Russian invasion of Crimea and Donbass in 2014. That is already longer than the World War Two.
Its absolutely disgraceful the Liberal/National Party and their corrupt media propaganda units still have Kathryn Campbell and her ilk in situ.
They clearly created the joke of a program called AUKUS to make Labor put her there. Disgraceful.
The Fadden by election will be decided next week. It will be interesting to see how the Liberals perform. If – as is devoutly hoped – their vote implodes then surely Dutton’s leadership will be in jeopardy.
The media?
How did they let this Robodebt saga continue without questioning?
I’m not media, I saw it was wrong!
The compliancy of the bulk of the media through the ATM governments needs to be a part of a Royal Commission.
Robodebt is only a part of it!
No serious questioning, favourable editorials, it goes on and on!
I think the MSM thought the LNP was going to govern forever so acted appropriately or otherwise!
Labors stunning return to power Federally and State wise blew that little cuddly scenario right out of the water!
As a result, I see all of the former media promoters of the LNP trying hard to distance themselves from that wreck.
Bad luck you msm crew, I’ve got a good memory.
Can only hope others have too.
Confessionssays:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 6:59 pm
BK @ #1308 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 6:43 pm
From Barrie Cassidy. “Now that the true depth and cruelty of this appalling episode is confirmed the political media should review why some allowed themselves to be used, why others lacked curiosity and why most underreported the royal commission.”
So, so true
I don’t recall Insiders giving it much attention. From memory it was the Guardian which first reported that most of the ‘debts’ were over cooked.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
98.6 says :
The Guardian may have been the first but I can recall the Insiders giving it a good going over.
Barrie Cassidy, where are you when Australian Politics needs you.
Wranslide
“ They clearly created the joke of a program called AUKUS to make Labor put her there. Disgraceful.”
I think it is just that there has been no detailed budget published for AUKUS, merely a giant total cost and confirming the task force has over 250 staff. So AUKUS can easily be used as a giant slush fund to hide someone and pay them.
Albanese has been good on the Assange thing.
Any updates on how that is going?
Any chance slipping a no bill through when Joe wakes up early from his nap?
Kirsdarke says:
Saturontation between WW2 British Brigadier Derek Mills-Roberts with German Field Marshal Erhard Milch after the discovery of the Bergen-Belsen concentration camp.
When Mills-Roberts vented about how outraged he was about the conditions, Milch replied “These people are not human beings in the same way as you and I.”, in which Mills-Roberts took his field marshal baton and savagely beat him with it.
I’m not saying that most people in the Coalition have a similar view of unemployed people as Milch had with those camp inmates, but, there are uncomfortable similarities.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
98.6 says :
The Coalition don’t call them ‘unemployed’ people.
They call them :
Dole bludgers
Leaners (not lifters)
Welfare Cheats
Freeloaders
Dole chaser
Spongers
etc etc etc.
Hopefully, they may think twice from now on.
Socrates at 9.23 pm
It has been a disastrous war, which Putin thought would last about 2 weeks. But there is sadly much more suffering for Ukrainians to endure yet. It currently looks as if the pre-condition for an end to Putin’s war is regime change in Moscow. Opinions about the likelihood of that differ widely.
Here is an interview with an opposition historian Andrey Zubov, an orthodox Christian at one time who associated with Solzhenitsyn (no democrat, despite his historical role in promoting dissent in Russia):
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/30/if-the-authorities-had-rallied-around-putin-prigozhin-wouldn-t-have-even-reached-rostov
Much of it might be wishful thinking, e.g. about “a coup on the horizon”. Or, as they say in Russia, that professor (who lives in the Czech Republic) may have confused his desires with reality.
However, provision of cluster bombs to Ukraine by the US is not a good move, nor a sign that an end to the war is foreseeable. Sadly, quite the contrary. The carnage endured by Ukrainians will continue.
MABWM says :
Hastie is just a prettier version of the ____________ from Marketing.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
I googled to find an appropriate word to fill in the blank space but none were demeaning enough.
Dr Doolittle 10.17
Thanks and sadly I must agree. As we have discussed before, neither side can afford to give up, Russia is not capable of conquering Ukraine, and Ukraine is not strong enough to do more than slowly attrition and push back Russia.
If Ukraine can slowly push back Russian forces to get the main east west rail line within artillery range (say at Tokmak) they could then strangle Russian forces in the west and south to the point they can recapture Kherson and Crimea provinces in the same way they regained the west bank of the Dnepr. But that will take at best months. Recapturing Donbass could take years, if possible.
Stooge says:
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 9:30 pm
The Fadden by election will be decided next week. It will be interesting to see how the Liberals perform. If – as is devoutly hoped – their vote implodes then surely Dutton’s leadership will be in jeopardy.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Roughly 3,300 people in Fadden may have been adversely affected by RoboDebt.
Which party will they vote for ?
Dr Doolittle
Thinking further about the state of the Ukraine war and its implications for the current balance of military technology, it has obvious lessons for both our region and Australia.
Firstly, deterrence is, as always, better than fighting any war. But nuclear deterrence is a dangerous illusion if your opponent is superior in conventional military and willing to attack. Alliances matter. So does an adequate military focused on self defence. Russia’s failure has also proven that a “modernised” expeditionary military force is a waste of time against a skilled self defence force.
For Taiwan, that to me suggests Australia should be friendly, willing and capable of assisting supplying it in a conflict, but we should not even attempt to actually intervene. Ukraine shows that Taiwan can defend itself, with suitable weapons.
For Australia, did you see my comments around 10am this morning on the Hunter frigate program? Technically, even militarily it really makes no sense. We have been dragged into paying for another expensive, irrelevant UK naval ship development program. It looks to me like UK are now trying to maneuver the RAN into paying for the development of their next destroyer design instead if the frigate fails.
We should have kept building the Hobart destroyers we already had. They are smaller, cheaper, adequate if not world’s best, but work well and are able to be built and maintained locally. Really, a rerun of the same arguments for building the French nuclear submarine with LEU reactor instead of the insanely expensive development program for the new UK SSN we are now roped into by AUKUS.