Resolve Strategic state and age breakdowns (open thread)

Polling breakdowns suggests federal Labor remains dominant in WA, and has gained most since the election at the younger and older end of the age scale.

It seems there is little to offer this week in the way of federal polling, my suggestion in the previous post that we might see a Resolve Strategic poll and Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns probably being a week premature. We did get quarterly breakdowns, courtesy of the Age/Herald on Sunday, but from Resolve Strategic rather than Newspoll – which don’t tell us much we did not already know, as breakdowns by gender and for the three biggest states are included with the monthly results. They do, however, include fresh state results for Western Australia and South Australia and age cohort breakdowns.

Labor has been polling exceptionally well in Resolve Strategic over the period in question, which is reflected in the WA and SA results. In the former case, the primary votes are Labor 46%, Coalition 29%, Greens 12% and One Nation 3%, compared with election results of Labor 36.8%, Coalition 34.8%, Greens 12.5% and One Nation 4.0%, which was sufficient to gain Labor four seats in the state. In the latter, the primary votes from the poll are Labor 46%, Coalition 22%, Greens 14% and One Nation 6%, compared with Labor 34.5%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 12.8% and One Nation 4.8% at the election.

The age breakdowns suggest the Coalition’s deterioration since the election has been concentrated among the young and old, with the middle-age cohort remaining relatively steady. Among those aged 18 to 34, Labor is up from 31% in the pre-election poll to 44% and the Coalition are down from 27% to 19%, with the Greens up one to 23%. Among those 55 and over, Labor is up from 33% to 42%, the Coalition is down from 46% to 37%, and the Greens are down from 5% to 4%. In between, Labor is up from 34% to 39%, the Coalition is down from 32% to 29%, and the Greens are down from 12% to 11%. The polls were conducted April 12 to 16, May 10 to 14 and June 6 to 11, with a combined national sample of 4587.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,363 thoughts on “Resolve Strategic state and age breakdowns (open thread)”

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  1. Looked at TikTok again just now. I haven’t signed on so at the moment it’s just random himbos and bimbos, as Sprocket might say. I checked the sign on procedure. It asked for my phone number and birthday. Dropped the idea.

  2. Before I start the chores a comment on defence – the Hunter frigate project. The recent audit showed that in terms of time and cost, the Hunter frigate is already a dog. Construction has not started yet (promised in 2020) and costs are $10 billion over budget and still going up. Worth recalling all the politics in how we got in this mess:
    – reelecting Chris Pyne
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/defence/2018/05/26/britain-lobbies-defence-take-risk-warships/15272568006282
    – and the Mayo by-election
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/defence/2018/07/21/shipbuilding-and-the-mayo-byelection/15320952006583

    The defence chiefs were ignored (preferring Italian design or modified Hobart) and we picked the BAE design. It promised the world but existed only on paper. Making it reality has proven impossible. It won’t meet specs. We should be ditching Hunter, even if China wasn’t an issue, and building more Hobart destroyers. They are simpler, cheaper, working reliably, and won’t cause delay.

    With the Defence Strategic Review (DSR) the need for change becomes even more urgent. Anti submarine warfare ships like Hunter are no longer the priority. Instead ships that can launch long range missiles and defend against them (like the Hobart destroyers…) are now the priority. So much so that BAE have already suggested a modified version of Hunters, so they can keep their contract.
    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/defence-and-foreign-affairs/a-defence-contractor-pitches-to-build-the-deadliest-warship-in-australias-history/video/edd862f0c9d57d6927157757dec938ba

    The danger is, we now know from UK defence news that the BAE project will be the next Royal Navy air warfare destroyer. They haven’t started designing it yet.
    https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/maritime-antisub/12103-bae-presentation-reveals-interesting-next-gen-destroyer-concept

    Even worse, BAE plan to develop their own new air defence system in this ship. They will include the superior Australian made Cefire radar under AUKUS. They are obviously hoping to rope in Australia once again to pay for a costly new system development exercise.
    https://www.navylookout.com/options-for-the-royal-navys-future-air-dominance-system-and-the-type-83-destroyer/

    If Australia sticks with BAE on the Hunters and their successors, we will be suckers. Again.

  3. Hairy Butler

    And don’t expect Labor to not call them out for what they are, Little Liberals opposing every reform and contributing nothing to policy or the advancement of Australian society. The Liberal platform to a T.

  4. Steve777, issue is that TikTok (like its evil cousins) isn’t random. It is targeted and that targeting isn’t necessarily curated by you and something you control – it can be manipulated (if I understand it right).

  5. Former Central Intelligence Director Michael Hayden in a new ad slammed Donald Trump over allegations the former president mishandled classified documents that led to a 37-count federal indictment, Bloomberg News reports.
    Hayden said Trump “must face consequences” in the ad, which, according to the report, demonstrates the extent to which the former president’s legal troubles figure to play a key role in the 2024 campaign.
    The one-minute ad, which was funded by the Republican Accountability Project, will start running Monday in three battleground states, the report said. “We don’t know who saw them, but we have to assume those documents were compromised,” Hayden says in the ad.

  6. Where are we up to with looking at which venal robodebt players could face criminal charges?
    Sounds like some of the lawyers will be looked at for professional conduct type issues.
    And public servants for code of conduct type issues. Really stupid comments about govt sacking people day after report. But stand downs hopefully and quick action for a clean out without legal blow back.

  7. Insiders tomorrow. Linda Burney talking about the Voice. Why isn’t it Bill Shorten talking about the “scandal of the century”, the Robodebt Royal Commission? I fear that short of date for the referendum, the Voice is starting look like a “look over there” distraction.

  8. Oliver Sutton @ #1039 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 10:25 am

    Frednk: “ Little Liberals opposing every reform and contributing nothing to policy or the advancement of Australian society.”

    Meanwhile, the world had its hottest-ever day on Monday this week.

    A record that lasted 24 hours, until surpassed on Tuesday …

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/07/un-climate-change-hottest-week-world

    And The Greens aren’t helping. They’re refusing to agree to building Social and Affordable Housing in areas already catered for with the services people want and need. Which will, um, checks notes, save the environment and produce fewer Greenhouse Gases. Fewer new Greenfields developments, which destroys the native habitat of flora and fauna, will have to be built instead. Especially if the delusional Greens want to get ‘1 million homes’ built (where did they pull that number out of? Sounds good though for a campaign slogan, eh?).

    But, yeah, point to the scary number over there. 🙄


  9. Oliver Sutton says:
    Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 10:25 am

    Frednk: “ Little Liberals opposing every reform and contributing nothing to policy or the advancement of Australian society.”

    Meanwhile, the world had its hottest-ever day on Monday this week.

    A record that lasted 24 hours, until surpassed on Tuesday …

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/07/un-climate-change-hottest-week-world

    And to underline my point.

    Labor is investing heavily in renewables and electric car infrastructure,two things that must happen as we move away form fossil fuel, to late for sure, in part because of past efforts by the Little Liberals to undermine Labor party policy. What do we get form the Greens, more Liberal fundamental policy, undermining Labor and no support for what is being done to make what needs to happen, happen, and no sane policy positions.

    On housing :-Block building houses trying to get rent freezes, something the federal government can’t do anyway. That is the “policy” contribution of the little liberals.

    On robo debt:- A grubby little press release.

    The sins on climate change occurred decades ago, but they tried this time around, fortunately they got the message, a political game too far.

    The Little Liberals, as sick as the Liberals.

  10. Thanks sprocket_.

    I converted your link so I could read the article.
    https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Ftechnology%2Fmetas-friendly-threads-collides-with-unfriendly-internet-2023-07-07%2F

    Further challenges in moderating content are in store once Meta links Threads to the so-called fediverse

    When I read “so-called” a flag is raised. It usually precedes shade or bias.

    “If an account or server, or if we find many accounts from a particular server, is found violating our rules then they would be blocked from accessing Threads, meaning that server’s content would no longer appear on Threads and vice versa,” she said.

    That’s how federated services work, and for instance why Aus.Social (where I have an account) blocks Truth.Social. Both use the same micro-blogging protocol. (You choose which city you live in among the community of cities. T****’s garbage is on an island no-one visits.)

    “With federation, the metadata that big platforms use to tie accounts to a single actor or detect abusive behavior at scale aren’t available,” said Stamos. “This is going to make stopping spammers, troll farms, and economically driven abusers much harder.”

    That’s a narrow perspective, “single actor at scale” will always be hard for the big operations. (Dare I mention robodebt?) But it’s the strength of small players. And it’s why Stamos either doesn’t understand federated systems or is being disingenuous about it. There is practically no abuse at the relatively small Aus.Social but messages appear from people planet wide.

    There’s one last thought. Why even bother putting shade on a system you’ve no interest in tying yourself to? (See my earlier post quoting the guy running Threads.) The only reason I can think of is because it is seen as a competitor.

    Sorry. Thanks for the link. I wanted to like it. But it feels more like marketing.

  11. From Peter Hartcher’s SMH article, linked by BK in Dawn Patrol (thank you).

    ”Robo-debt was an example of overpoliticisation, where a minister wanted to use performative cruelty against welfare recipients to burnish his political credentials and cared not about the rights of citizens.”

    https://apple.news/APSLSXwfeQFK5uC_aEJUGOA

    It’s not the only example, just the worst. It springs from the same well of malice as our asylum seeker policy, for example. Despised “others” targeted for decades by “friendly” media (friendly to the political Right, that is).

    When did the targeting of welfare recipients start? I don’t remember it from the 60s or early 70s.

    I think it started in Malcolm Fraser’s time with the end of post-war full employment and the advent of neoliberal economic management. The term “dole bludger” was coined around this time: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-30/dole-bludger-emerged-in-the-1970s-to-serve-a-political-purpose/100174356

    This demonisation process was aided and abetted by tabloid newspapers, tabloid TV (take a bow “Current Affair”) and tabloid talk radio. Asylum seekers were added in the 1990s.

    Demonisation of both groups really took off under Howard. It reach its apotheosis under Morrison, the most contemptible person to attain high office in Australia in recent decades.

  12. Socrates @ #1024 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 9:38 am

    Cat

    I take it you don’t see a Dutton – Joyce leadership team winning back the “chicks vote” as Barnaby probably calls it? I’m not a woman so I will bow to your expertise 🙂

    Some chicks have weird fetishes but I don’t think there’ll be enough votes in that one. 😆

  13. Hairy Butler @ #1022 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 9:35 am

    “I would hate to think that the current government would get a gold star for doing almost nothing,” he said. “You see Albanese and Shorten talk about how this is one of the worst things that’s ever happened in this country and how terrible it is. They knew that in 2017 … they should have swung their dicks around, and they refused to.”

    Robodebt victim Michael Griffin

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/08/it-was-so-shocking-why-robodebts-dark-legacy-will-linger-long-after-royal-commission-report

    Um, could it be that Labor were in the Opposition then? They did all that they could anyway. I didn’t see, lawyer, Adam Bandt, organising a class action for the Robodebt victims with Slater and Gordon. He’s better at the performative sympathy and the angry ant press release. *golfclap*

    But, yeah, Boo Labor!
    #LittleLibs

  14. There is an upcoming by-election in Warrandyte, a long held Liberal Party seat in Victoria.

    At “The Age” online today there is a headline “Security concerns raised as state MPs plan China junket”

    The article, interestingly, is not behind a pay-wall.

    The contributor is Sakkal.

    The opening paragraph includes “prompting security concerns from experts and the federal Coalition”

    It advises the itinerary was drafted by the MP for Ringwood (Labor) which seat adjoins Warrandyte, and was “leaked” by unnamed Labor figures worried about the wisdom of the visit.

    There is then reference and linkage to “Premier Daniel Andrews faced scrutiny for a trip to China”.

    There is then reference and linkage to Albanese and “urged by some voices to cancel his scheduled trip to China”

    Who precisely is promoting “scrutiny” and who precisely are the “voices”?

    They are exclusively Liberal Party operatives, operatives who are feeding their material to their media.

    The article includes that the Victorian MP’s were working thru the details of the proposed visit with DFAT and that “this is not a government trip”.

    The reference and quoting is then from James Patterson, a Liberal Party Senator, from the IPA to the Parliament at a very young age and a critic of the Chinese government saying the trip should be cancelled along with derogatory opinion including “amateur political junket for a wannabe tour leader and a few mates to boost their social media content library”

    You get the drift.

    Countering Patterson’s view is someone from the Australia-China Relations Institute, which encourages bilateral visits (referring to Wong going to China in December as a thaw in the relationship following a change of government in Australia)

    Then 2 “eminent experts” disagree this, then including another opinion “not necessarily troubling if a group of MP’s went to China to strengthen economic relationships”

    Basically this is down to Patterson using Sakkal and 9 Entertainment to promote his opinion of China.

    Hence the headline and the prominent text of the Liberal Party provided article reproduced by Sakkal, whose affiliations are known on the streets of Melbourne.

    Simply, in the real world, among those I associate with on a regular basis over lunches and functions, 4 who head substantial private Companies have been to China in the immediate past, one returning last week, they cementing and enhancing their business interests in China across supply, logistics and, indeed, retail operations in China where there is a market of 1.4 Billion people (Australia 25 Million).

    Look at the major retail outlets which trade in China, including shop fronts.

    There are no longer the Trade Fairs, but product continues to be sourced.

    Within China there are still Pandemic concerns and where “lock downs” and testing remain the regime, to the chagrin of some in China subjected to lock down (they have a population of 1.4 Billion after all).

    So there are interruptions.

    But commerce and industry continues to be transacted with Australia’s largest trading partner.

    Those traveling to China engage with DFAT, and with Austrade government offices and officials in China (because there is significant representation).

    Then we get Patterson, his vehicle being Sakkal at 9 Entertainment and the Warrandyte by-election.

    Perhaps Sakkal can obtain from DFAT the schedule of Australian business leaders who have traveled to China over the recent period.

    Instead of presenting the pro-Liberal propaganda he insults us with.

    ALL the criticism comes from the Liberal Party, a Liberal Party further distancing itself from what was its natural constituency being big business by attacking Australia’s largest trading partner and, by extension, the business models of Australian Companies who transact with and in China.

    It is noted Yellen is in China.

    Perhaps the Liberal Party and its immature representatives such as Patterson from the IPA could attack that visit also – instead promoting the military conflict they promote.

  15. Two feeds on Robert Kennedy Jnr have just arrived, and worth sharing for anyone interested in what he’s on about. I had some vague idea about him being solidly true to ‘democrat’ principles, and that he held strong negative views about vaccines and how Covid was handled in the USA. And that his voice made listening to him a challenge, for me at least, if not a pretty major barrier to electability.

    First up, Lex Fridman has a 2.5 hr podcast with time tags (scroll across the time bar, or pull down from the ‘show more’ extension in the explanatory notes)

    https://youtu.be/NPtBkw5uD-0

    0:00 – Introduction
    3:18 – US history
    7:34 – Freedom
    9:28 – Camus
    12:51 – Hitler and WW2
    22:03 – War in Ukraine
    45:24 – JFK and the Cuban Missile Crisis
    1:10:31 – JFK assassination conspiracy
    1:20:06 – CIA influence
    1:29:04 – 2024 elections
    1:40:49 – Jordan Peterson
    1:42:30 – Anthony Fauci
    1:45:57 – Big Pharma
    2:05:37 – Peter Hotez
    2:11:17 – Exercise and diet
    2:13:42 – God

    One of the breakups of the long podcast (into LexClips) is on running as a Democrat and the values he carries (12 mins) – an America which has spent 8 trillion dollars on wrecking the world, instead of being on the side of the poor, while China has/is usurped/usurping its role.

    https://youtu.be/Dy_Z3qJHEj8

    Coincidentally, The New Yorker has a probing interview from David Remnick (staff writer, editor, author, father of an autistic child) which you should get access to on a one off basis I think, delving into the redeemed heroin addict, for whom everyone, as he quotes Jesus, should be given not seven changes but seven times seven, with none excluded from the tent, with a deep conspiratorial bent of most everything, a man who saw as a boy the CIA assassinate his father and uncle, of this he has no doubts, and the final exchange on vaccines and autism sees him resort to a banality worthy of Jordan Petersen – if vaccines don’t cause autism, then what does, he posits.

    He’s polling between 6 – 20% (can’t be more specific). As I’ve said before splitting the Dem vote is a concern.

    The experience of interviewing him and listening to his previous interviews, I found, was like settling in for a long train ride with a seemingly amiable stranger in the next seat. You ask a straightforward question and, an hour later, as you race by Thirtieth Street Station, in Philadelphia, he is still going on about the fraud of covid vaccines and how he was unfairly “deplatformed” for spouting conspiracy theories. By the time you’ve pulled into Wilmington, he might be talking about how drugs known as poppers helped cause the aids epidemic, or how “toxic chemicals” might contribute to “sexual dysphoria” in children. As you head south, he is talking about being “censored” by Instagram, the F.B.I., and the Biden White House. New technologies like 5G towers and digital currencies are totalitarian instruments that could “control our behavior.” Wi-Fi causes “leaky brain.” After a while, you begin to wonder why you bought a ticket. But it’s too late. You’re pinned into the window seat.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-alternative-facts-of-robert-f-kennedy-jr?


  16. Given the opposition is clearly in a state of denial over the report of the robodebt royal commission, it has obviously learnt nothing from past mistakes and would, if re-elected, presumably not hesitate to repeat them, opines the editorial in The Canberra Times.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8262295/coalition-robodebt-hubris-defies-belief/?cs=27763

    Not a single LNP politician expressed any regret let alone any mea culpa for their actions for the sufferings of the victims.

  17. And on another matter I have seen no media coverage in Melbourne of the resignation of McBride from the Liberal Party in SA

    McBride is a name of Liberal Party royalty in SA – absolute royalty

    Such is the decay of the Liberal Party – and it is National

    It is down to the IPA and Pentecostals who now control the Liberal Party

  18. Surely Labor will act on Holme’s recommendation that all programs that are assessed by cabinet be properly tested for legality …?

  19. Surely RFK Jr is just another example of Republican maskirovka, like the COVID conspiracy (knownothing sinophobia), the Southern Strategy (racism) or The Federalist Society (lawfare)?


  20. According to David Crowe, Robodebt was rotten from the start, and Morrison, Tudge and Porter are forever shamed by it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rotten-from-the-start-morrison-tudge-and-porter-are-forever-shamed-by-robo-debt-20230706-p5dm75.html
    Simon Benson reckons that the Robodebt royal commission report into the scheme offers long-lasting pain for a Coalition with nothing to gain. He says that for Bill Shorten the report is a vindication of his pursuit, which the Coalition continued to dismiss as a political stunt.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/robodebt-royal-commission-scheme-offers-longlasting-pain-for-a-coalition-with-nothing-to-gain/news-story/ff1d65c26754a79c53f5ff76be9f6a5a?amp

    Where were these journalistic hacks especially Simon Benson, who criticised ALP for pursuing Robodebt, when Robodebt victims were trying to tell their story?

    Simon Benson when he was getting drops from Rachel Miller.
    https://theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/centrelink-debt-scare-backfires-on-labor/news-story/9834217a0daa8a2f249ba65415ccb037

  21. Rex ”Surely Labor will act on Holme’s recommendation that all programs that are assessed by cabinet be properly tested for legality …?”

    I’m stunned that this is not standard operating procedure. All large projects where I worked were looked over by the Legal Department. We were dealing with customers’ money, after all. The consequences of getting balances wrong, sending out incorrect information, sending an invalid bill or one for an incorrect amount, or not complying with regulatory requirements were very serious, after all.

  22. Threads need a website platform and the ability to limit your feed to your followers, or Twitter will remain dominant.

  23. Steve777 @ #965 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 11:31 am

    Rex ”Surely Labor will act on Holme’s recommendation that all programs that are assessed by cabinet be properly tested for legality …?”

    I’m stunned that this is not standard operating procedure. All large projects where I worked were looked over by the Legal Department. We were dealing with peoples money, after all. The consequences of getting balances wrong, sending out incorrect information, sending an invalid bill or one for an incorrect amount, or not complying with regulatory requirements were very serious, after all.

    For cabinet to simply ‘trust departmental staff re a programs legality’ is just asking for a repeat of Robodebt’s massive failures.

  24. ”Not a single LNP politician expressed any regret let alone any mea culpa for their actions for the sufferings of the victims.”

    They don’t do mea culpa. I expect to see denial, pushback, distraction, concerted attacks on the Royal Commission plus doubling down, all with the help of media allies. The Liberal-Murdoch dirt units will be working overtime in coming weeks and months.

    Someone upthread suggested that the Coalition could lose 35 seats, by extending Millennial voting patterns to their older years and to their younger followers. I am dubious about that but it would be great to see.

    Better still if they lose – how many seats do they now hold? – 55.


  25. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 9:03 am
    UK voting intention via @Omnisis , 06 – 07 Jul:
    LAB: 51% (+3) CON: 25% (-1) LDEM: 8% (-) REF: 5% (-2) GRN: 5% (-)

    Labour voters, who believed BOJO and UKIP founder (whatshisname), and delivered Brexit, appears to be coming back to Labour.

  26. Player One says:
    Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 11:47 am


    frednk @ #1224 Saturday, July 8th, 2023 – 11:29 am

    Australia is solving this with immigration.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uASMAFT8VgM

    But for how long?

    That’s not a solution – that’s a problem.

    Do you have 2.1 children to look after you in old age?
    What is you solution for those that don’t?

  27. C@tmomma: It. Is. Not. About. The. Greens. Griffin didn’t even mention them.

    I think he was being a bit harsh on Shorten et al, since they came to the party in a big way in the end, but deflecting any sentiment of “hey, how about the recommendations of the Royal Commission?” and “how do we actually make systemic change so that this doesn’t happen again?” from the myriad of affected people and community groups that actually fought the anti-Robodebt campaign from the start by trying to turn it into yet another good old Labor-Greens pissing contest is a great way to ensure that Labor doesn’t gain much political benefit from this. When parties only care about marginalised people when they think it’s a way to get one up on their opponents, it’s really bloody obvious.

  28. For those following the test: The yellow Met Office warning is in place from 9am to 11.59pm on Saturday, as heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected over parts of the UK – including in Leeds. Forecasters say flooding of homes and businesses could happen quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds. The Met Office adds: “Fast flowing or deep floodwater is possible, causing a danger to life. Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services.


  29. C@tmommasays:
    Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 9:34 am
    Karen Middleton’s article in The Saturday Paper about Barnaby Joyce’s, none too subtle, attempt to gain back the leadership of The Nationals from David Littleproud, is very interesting. But the killer line comes from Simon Holmes A’Court:

    Holmes à Court says. “I hope he comes back. Just imagine if the Coalition leadership team at the next election is Dutton and Joyce.”

    The metaphor for The current NP leader is silent Assassin, whereas Joyce is marauder.

  30. “Labour voters, who believed BOJO and UKIP founder (whatshisname), and delivered Brexit, appears to be coming back to Labour.”

    Probably because Starmer is a right-wing politician and a proven liar, as well.

  31. ‘When parties only care about marginalised people when they think it’s a way to get one up on their opponents, it’s really bloody obvious.’

    Which is why the Greens’ media release caused such concern.


  32. Enough Alreadysays:
    Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 9:53 am
    While you weren’t looking:

    “AMSTERDAM, July 7 (Reuters) – The Dutch government collapsed on Friday after failing to reach a deal on restricting immigration, which will trigger new elections in the fall.

    The crisis was triggered by a push by Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s conservative VVD party to limit the flow of asylum seekers to the Netherlands, which two of his four-party government coalition refused to support.”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-government-resign-over-asylum-policy-anp-2023-07-07/

    This election could see the right-wing populist Farmer–Citizen Movement (BoerBurgerBeweging, BBB) go from winning 1 seat in the 150-seat parliament in 2021, up to 29 according to present polls. The governing VVD-D66-CDA-CU coalition would, on this polling, go from the 78 it won in 2021 to 45 now (76 needed for a governing majority).

    Link to Wikipedia page on polling for the next Dutch general election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Dutch_general_election

    EA
    Governments in Europe are falling all over Europe.
    And you can see palpable anger like in France and UK for the time being, where they cannot overthrow current Governments.
    And the fallen governments are being replaced by far-right governments like in Italy and Hungary. Spain and Netherlands are around the corner. Greece has been captured by right-wing party.

  33. Rick Morton’s excellent breakdown of the Royal Commission’s findings (linked above) highlights the following comment from the report:

    “It may be that the evidence in this royal commission has gone some way to changing public perceptions. But largely, those attitudes are set by politicians, who need to abandon for good (in every sense) the narrative of taxpayer versus welfare recipient.”

    These are the things that are a bit more complex than “bad Liberals deserve to be punished”, and given that the one government response to a specific recommendation so far (around the secrecy of Cabinet advice) was to refuse, it’s an open question as to whether anything’s going to happen.

  34. @Ven

    For the people of Britain, a result like that means nothing. A Starmer Labour government would be a Tory regime in all but name. The only winners will be the aristocrats, billionaires and royals.

  35. zoomster: The Greens’ press release was barely even an attack on Labor – it was repeating calls from many of the groups that ran the anti-Robodebt campaign for systemic reform and action to ensure that it never happened again.

    And the response – to entirely deflect about what was said and try to reframe it as another one of their favourite pissing contests, despite merely repeating same demands that originated with many organisations involved in the anti-Robodebt campaign – strongly suggests that Labor wants very much not to talk about that, and only to talk about the misdeeds of Liberal MPs, is starting to become apparent. The strategy of reframing-as-pissing-contest, as opposed to (to use Labor’s wonderful parlance) “circumventing the Greens” and doing the right thing on something that wasn’t about the Greens to begin with, is really obvious.

    How hard would it be to go after the individuals who did this and make clear that you will implement the recommendations of the Royal Commission and push systemic change to prevent it happening again? Harder than seizing the moment to beat up on your enemies for their misdeeds and then sticking the report in a back drawer somewhere, as often happens with inconvenient inquiry reports.

  36. Rebecca says:
    Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 11:58 am
    C@tmomma: It. Is. Not. About. The. Greens. Griffin didn’t even mention them.

    I think he was being a bit harsh on Shorten et al, since they came to the party in a big way in the end, but deflecting any sentiment of “hey, how about the recommendations of the Royal Commission?” and “how do we actually make systemic change so that this doesn’t happen again?” from the myriad of affected people and community groups that actually fought the anti-Robodebt campaign from the start by trying to turn it into yet another good old Labor-Greens pissing contest is a great way to ensure that Labor doesn’t gain much political benefit from this. When parties only care about marginalised people when they think it’s a way to get one up on their opponents, it’s really bloody obvious.

    _______________________________________

    Rebecca, I would agree with you but for one thing. It was Hairy Butler at 9.35 who made it a Greens smear of Labor.

    The Griffin quote was taken by HB out of a very long comprehensive article in the Guardian about the travails of the victims of robodebt. And then posted it as a Labor-bashing thing. So C@t’s response was in that context.

    Labor did try, as did Darren O’Donovan, Asher Wolf, Not My Debt and other community groups. The Guardian and The Saturday Paper published important stuff as early as 2017.

    But when the traditional media (print, TV and radio) were weaponised to turn any complaints into just more dole bludger whinging it was difficult to sustain, let alone break through.

    One of the really interesting things that came out of the Royal Commission was the extent that so many people and organisations who were in a position to actually put a stop to robodebt failed to do so. Oppositions are often more powerless than community and other groups, especially when the modus operandi of the then government was to scream that Labor was only politicking as a cover for their own malfeasance.

    The victims of robodebt, like many victims of injustice, often misapportion blame. Given what they have been through, they are entitled to do so, even if not quite helpful. Despite Labor calling the royal commission, many have been so badly burnt by a government they trusted that they no longer trust in government at all.

    But slime balls like Hairy Butler selectively quoting to show Labor ‘bad’ only shows that the Greens are just another sleazy political party, despite their protestations of integrity (as applied to everyone else).

  37. Rebecca

    These are the things that are a bit more complex than “bad Liberals deserve to be punished”, and given that the one government response to a specific recommendation so far (around the secrecy of Cabinet advice) was to refuse, it’s an open question as to whether anything’s going to happen.

    _______________________________________

    Where was that response?

  38. Rebecca

    The report only came out yesterday.

    It’s quite sensible of the government to go through its recommendations systematically. If they did otherwise, they would justify your accusation that they’re only seeing it as a way to attack their opponents.

    As for going after the miscreants, that’s best done by the court system, which has an inconvenient habit of assuming innocence until guilt is proved.

    Let’s wait at least a couple of months before we start deciding if Labor is treating the downtrodden as political fodder or is taking the issues raised seriously.

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