We continue to await the return of Newspoll for the year, which I imagine might be forthcoming ahead of the return of parliament next week. With Essential Research having an off week in the fortnightly cycle, this leaves me with nothing to report on the poll front. Two bits of electoral news worth noting are that the Liberals won the supplementary election for the Victorian state seat of Narracan as expected on Saturday, confirming lower house numbers of 56 for Labor, 19 for the Liberals, nine for the Nationals and four for the Greens; and that Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles has announced that the by-election for the seat of Arafura, following the death of Labor member Lawrence Costa on December 17, will be held on March 18. With that, over to you.
Russians KIA Feb 3: 840
Total Russians KIA: 129,870
Daily average Russians KIA: 376.4
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/3/7387724/
Australia is entering a period of falling inflation after annual price rises peaked late last year, but that will not stop the Reserve Bank’s official interest rate hitting 3.6 per cent, the nation’s leading economists said. Despite talk of a potential rate pause, a snap poll of 24 economists by The Australian Financial Review on Friday showed 23 are tipping a ninth straight rate rise at the RBA’s first board meeting of 2023 on Tuesday.
All but two pencilled in a quarter-percentage point increase to 3.35 per cent. JPMorgan Australia chief economist Ben Jarman was alone in predicting no change, while Judo Bank economic adviser Warren Hogan expects a half-percentage point jump to 3.6 per cent. Mr Jarman said with the leading causes of inflation softening recently, the RBA was close to pausing; though JPMorgan is predicting two increases in the second half of 2023 with a peak of 3.6 per cent.
Following a stronger-than-expected December quarter inflation result of 7.8 per cent, Mr Hogan took a more hawkish view. “Stronger [underlying] inflation, a resilient economy over summer and most importantly a brighter outlook for the global economy means the balance of risks to monetary policy have shifted,” he said. “They need to get the cash rate up towards 4 per cent quick smart.”
All respondents except for one – independent economist Stephen Anthony –said headline inflation had probably peaked. Mr Anthony expects headline inflation to further climb and to peak at 8.6 per cent this March quarter. Economist Stephen Koukoulas, however, said Australia was “unambiguously” going into a “disinflation” cycle. This is where the growth in prices slows as opposed to “deflation” whe prices actually fall.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/disinflation-has-arrived-but-peak-cash-rate-tipped-for-3-6pc-20230203-p5chr4#Echobox=1675404480
I would welcome an attempt by the Russians to launch a major offensive when everything is so muddy that the invasion routes will be forced to channel along existing hard to roads.
This would favour the defense at a time when the defence is already favoured.
My view, FWIW, is that the next best time to attack is when the ground dries up hard enough for free off-road movement.
“A car blew up in the temporarily occupied city of Enerhodar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on the morning of 3 February. The occupation authorities have called it a terrorist attack.
Source: Volodymyr Rohov, the Kremlin-appointed puppet leader of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, on Telegram; RIA-Melitopol news outlet
Quote from Rohov: “Approximately at 07:50, a loud explosion rocked the city of power engineers. […] What caused the explosion in Enerhodar? The cause of the explosion that rocked the city this morning was a car that blew up.
As per the information available, one person was killed in the terrorist attack. Specialists of the Ministry of Emergency Situations and security forces are already on the scene.”
Details: It has not yet been reported to whom this car belonged.
Rohov has said that “the force of the explosion of the car in Enerhodar was so strong that windows shattered in residential buildings up to the ninth floor”; in addition, at least one more car was destroyed that was parked near the blown one.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/3/7387719/
I think Russian authorities, both in their own country and in occupied Ukraine, had better swot up on the history of the Troubles. I suspect that what the British experienced from the IRA will be nothing compared to what the Russians will experience, if they keep up with their bloody invasion of Ukraine.
Anyone who wants to know what the Greens’ policy on the Voice is, should just Google it.
A good Govt would address both.
I foresee a fundamental change in the way in which the law profession interfaces with the public service post Holmes-RC. She has been ‘laser focused’ on the actions of the lawyers. Today she has asked whether witnesses were lawyers AND whether lawyers knew that other people WEREN’T lawyers.
Upnorth
Please tick my post at @6:38 PM. 🙂 🙂
Boerwar @ Friday, February 3, 2023 at 6:43 pm:
“I would welcome an attempt by the Russians to launch a major offensive when everything is so muddy that the invasion routes will be forced to channel along existing hard to roads.”
================
BW, my understanding is mud season can last until mid-April. If that happened this year, one would expect a Russian spring offensive to commence then. If Ukraine has modern Western MBT’s ready for action by mid-May, that gives Russia a month of good offensive conditions before they have to face that music. I hope that isn’t long enough for them to recapture significant Ukrainian territory. The less they take, the less Ukraine has to take back.
“Enough Already says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 6:35 pm
…The sheer scale of the Russian infantry “meat wave” assaults””
That’s the problem. What we know about the Russian military operations in the 4 oblasts currently in dispute is that the shelling of Ukrainian positions hasn’t made much of a difference (killing civilians is murderous, but won’t help Putin militarily). Putin seems to be relying mainly on manpower superiority. That’s WWI stuff. Putin clearly fears the Ukrainians receiving sufficient Western military modern equipment to crash the Russians in the Spring offensive. He needs to seize the initiative now, but his WWI approach is unlikely to be successful. He tried to widen the conflict by involving Belarus, but as far I can see the tactic didn’t work and Lukashenko is not following Putin on the path to Hell. I mentioned before that Lukashenko may have learned a lesson or two from Franco’s strategy in WWII. Franco staid out of the war in spite of Hitler’s insistence, and thanks to that he remained in power for three additional decades, being one of the few Fascist leaders of that era who died a peaceful death in old age and still as leader of his country.
My impression is that the Russian offensive will flop and it will be followed by a successful Ukrainian offensive. After that, I can only hope that somebody in Russia will regain some sense of reality, get rid of Putin, and reach a reasonable settlement with Ukraine.
The Perrottet government has handed the corruption watchdog a copy of a scathing investigation which found an intervention by the office of the then deputy premier John Barilaro diverted funding for a $100 million bushfire recovery program away from Labor-held electorates.
The Department of Premier and Cabinet provided the report exposing serious transparency failures to the Independent Commission Against Corruption on Friday morning, sidestepping NSW Labor leader Chris Minns who had earlier threatened to do the same.
A damning report by the auditor-general released on Thursday revealed that instead of following guidelines, the office of the then-NSW Nationals leader devised their own rules to fast-track money to areas hit by the 2019 Black Summer catastrophe – a switch that meant 96 per cent of projects funded were in Coalition-held seats
Minns issued the former deputy premier a 24-hour ultimatum to explain the reasons behind the 2021 decision or have the matter referred to ICAC by Labor. The Labor leader’s office was drafting a letter to the ICAC on Friday afternoon.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/bushfire-grants-report-sent-to-corruption-watchdog-20230203-p5chtm.html
The NSW Government has got in first:
”The Department of Premier and Cabinet provided the report exposing serious transparency failures to the Independent Commission Against Corruption on Friday morning, sidestepping NSW Labor leader Chris Minns who had earlier threatened to do the same.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/bushfire-grants-report-sent-to-corruption-watchdog-20230203-p5chtm.html
HHB link: “The Perrottet government has handed the corruption watchdog a copy of a scathing investigation which found an intervention by the office of the then deputy premier John Barilaro diverted funding for a $100 million bushfire recovery program away from Labor-held electorates.”
Oof. The hits keep on coming.
For those interested in the Ukraine War, and what it is like on the streets. This blogger I follow – actually a U.S. citizen of Asian descent – owns an apartment in Kharkiv.
He decided to go back and see if it was still standing. Worth 30 minutes of your time…
https://youtu.be/71TbmjLp1xo
“A good Govt would address both.”
The IMF recommended a broad range of reform like the Henry Review those who read it suggest it looked quite similar.
While personally I think stage 3 in isolation could be sold, and while I think a super profits tax can be sold, most of the reform is just impossible with a mindless obstructive opposition, and media narrative that will run hard against the govt, and business very willing to flex their overpowered voices and wallets to defeat anything they don’t like, tax reform is pretty much impossible in Australia there are too many bad actors.
While I wish Albo had courage and leadership to sell stage 3 and a superprofits (even the tories managed that in the UK) I don’t think he is a bad actor and I don’t think broader tax reform is possible and the bad actors are to blame.
The greens aren’t bad actors either imho but they are wildcards that make it harder not easier.
WWP, no one cares what the greens think as long as they stand against the voice.
I see Perrottet has out-manoeuvred Minns by beating him to the ICAC.
More LNP corruption.. is it endemic.. sure looks that way.. Did Barilaro borrow Bridget McKenzie’s colour coded spreadsheet?
“WWP, no one cares what the greens think as long as they stand against the voice.”
Greens are both a voice in the debate and relevant in the Senate. I’m ignoring the voice debate so I may well be missing sarcasm or meaning that would be apparent in the context of the ongoing cit and paste war on the voice here.
Enough Already
“ Details: Andrii Cherniak, Representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, told the Kyiv Post on 1 February in an interview that Russian President Vladimir Putin had ordered the Russian military to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023. ”
———————————————————————————————
In terms of orders I find the directive to “capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023” unusual. If correct, it’s a terrible order, ambiguous, and likely unachievable. If such a directive were clearly possible it would likely have been completed by now. The logic of the directive presumes that Russia has been otherwise engaged up until this point, has achieved it’s aims and has now turned its attention to these oblasts as if this was always the plan.
Russia hasn’t even been capable of capturing the small city of Bahkmut after 12 months of fighting and they’re unlikely to be able to constitute experienced forces to achieve a much larger task including two oblasts. As it is, Russia will be needing to reinforce its forces in Bahkmut. Putin’s directive as it stands (if accurate) is more of a hope or a wish. The order begs the question “and what if we can’t”? It’s too imprecise.
I expect continued shelling to be Russia’s major weapon supported by human waves. This will result minor successes (of little strategic or tactical importance) but significant human losses. This is warfare by attrition at its worst. If Ukraine through accurate and timely US intelligence can continue to strike Russian military logistics and infrastructure throughout Spring I think Ukraine can begin to make inroads with fresh armour (tanks and IFVs) from early Summer.
WeWantPaul @ #2265 Friday, February 3rd, 2023 – 6:58 pm
There’s more voters that are progressive thinkers these days and less likely to buy opposition/media and corporate propaganda.
I’m confident Chalmers could sell the reform if given the opportunity by the PM.
WWP – Albo and crew are very experienced.
They need at least 2 terms – 6 years -to implement what the want. An essential part of the strategy is to get the 2nd term. They have been in power 8 months.
The we want everything now noisy crew, you know who you are, can keep whistling in the wind.
“sprocket_says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 6:56 pm”
I am sure that life in Kharkiv is not exactly the same as it used to be before the war. But from the video, I don’t see a city on its knees, or a wasteland. Putin’s scorched-earth strategy is probably less impressive than the Russians may have hoped for.
Perrottet delivers Government suicide note late Friday.. very late in hope no one reads it.
Bushfire grants report sent to corruption watchdog
By Lucy Cormack and Tom Rabe
February 3, 2023 — 6.38pm
Scepticsays:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:07 pm
Perrottet delivers Government suicide note late Friday.. very late in hope no one reads it.
Bushfire grants report sent to corruption watchdog
By Lucy Cormack and Tom Rabe
February 3, 2023 — 6.38pm
——————-
smart tactically. nothing will happen b4 march 25
“I’m confident Chalmers could sell the reform if given the opportunity by the PM.”
Well to the extent this is true I would agree sprocket that it is a 6 – 9 year project that would get a softlaunch in the budget.
The Shorten election result however makes me think you are wrong. The media will give extra voice to the very well off class that want to keep the idiotic gifts Howard and Costello gave them, because that is the class the media identify with.
Low information voters are going to go with tax increase bad, trickle down has baked that in and trickle down is still bipartisan policy.
“Bushfire grants report sent to corruption watchdog”
ICAC still hasn’t reported on the Dazza’n’Gladdie business.
Don’t hold your breath for this one.
I just had a friend text me asking if Barilaro was going to do a John Brogden.. we would hope not.. Maybe John is approaching Barilaro to make sure he is alright..
What happened with Russia’s hypersonic missiles that were going to win the war for Putin in matter of days?
Cronus says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 6:16 pm
Upnorth says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 5:48 pm
Cronus says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 5:44 pm
Snappy Tom 5:12 pm
“ Albanese has failed to provide sufficient detail on the Greens position!”
———————————————————————————————-
Nature abhors a vacuum.
中华人民共和国
Snappy Tom wins quote of the day! Well done cobber.
——————————————————————————————
How was Mongolia fella or are you still there?
中华人民共和国
Just got back to BKK cobber via Seoul. Was bloody cold. Got down to -43 one morning in the South Gobi. Traffic in UB is a pain but otherwise another enjoyable trip with wonderful people and lots of “forbidden meats” (and Vodka). Sorry I didn’t post but Wifi was down in the Gobi I was flat out in UB.
Chinese are back into the market big time and tip is March or April see a tick up in Iron Ore, Coal and green metals. We are supplying Tin and Copper for renewables in China after a 10 month closure for COVID! Great to be back in action.
Looking forward the warmth and a more “non-meat based” diet in the Land of Smiles.
minns shoould have refered it first thing this morning he seems to slow to act he has a habit of threatining to act but waiting a day used the same stunt with banks town mp if this is going to be his practise not a great sign he let perottit get a head of him he is not the smartist leader he had the chance to show leadership and refer this today
Alpo says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:17 pm
What happened with Russia’s hypersonic missiles that were going to win the war for Putin in matter of days?
They never made it past the 3D renderings
“The we want everything now noisy crew, you know who you are, can keep whistling in the wind.”
I agree with all.
In someways I’m in the now class, or at least I’d understand others putting me in it. Although I don’t I actually want everything now, I do want a fighting stance that lets those vunerable and low wage earners know the govt is on their side.
But it is a bit like that old joke wtte “if I wanted to get to tax and social safety net reform I wouldn’t want to start from here”. Because here has promised not to do it.
Ven says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 6:51 pm
Upnorth
Please tick my post at @6:38 PM.
中华人民共和国
Good post bloke! And too true.
not know whity he does not just refer matters
So boys and girls. After 10 days in Mongolia and not following the news (or PB) can I ask, have The Greens got a position yet on The Voice?
Upnorth says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:25 pm
So boys and girls. After 10 days in Mongolia and not following the news (or PB) can I ask, have The Greens got a position yet on The Voice?
___________________________________
They’re still playing Twister
WWP, the only thing people are thinking about when thinking about the greens in oz, is “Can’t these numpties even get their shit together enough for something even 90% of their supporters want?”
Like dude… read the room.
Good evening all.
Re the super debate a page or two back.
My understanding of the current situation is that – in relation to accumulation funds – there is a cap of $1.7 million on a super balance in the pension stage, but no cap whatsoever in the accumulation stage: albeit noting that, as someone said earlier, your accumulation account cannot be accessed until you retire.
Earnings on accumulation accounts are mostly 15 cents in the dollar, although I believe they are somewhat less than that for capital gains.
Earnings on accounts in the pension stage are untaxed, and capital gains are still taxed but then rebated.
Money withdrawn from the pension stage accounts is also untaxed for retired people over 60 years of age.
As I understand the government’s current thinking, the idea is to put a limit – perhaps $5m – on how much people can have in their accumulation accounts. This makes perfect sense to me, as it is unlikely that most people with more than $5m in an accumulation account are intending to spend it in a hurry, so it is possibly being used as a way of building up an estate for their heirs. As this is not the purpose of superannuation, it is reasonable that they be required to withdraw it and invest it in ways that attract normal taxation.
I think that’s all accurate, but am happy to be corrected.
I sincerely hope and trust that Labor doesn’t try to impose taxes on accounts of $1.7m or less in the pension phase. I would suspect that many in the party would be sorely tempted: there’s a lot of money there that could be reallocated to other purposes. But the politics of it would be even worse than those of franking credits. As other posters have pointed out, there are intergenerational equity issues here in relation to the treatment of defined benefit and accumulation super.
WeWantPaul @ #2269 Friday, February 3rd, 2023 – 7:03 pm
The Polletariat is obsessed with the Green position on the Voice, because they know their own Labor supporters are more ambivalent about it and they don’t like that being pointed out.
“. nothing will happen b4 march 25”
In 2025
TPOF says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:26 pm
Upnorth says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:25 pm
So boys and girls. After 10 days in Mongolia and not following the news (or PB) can I ask, have The Greens got a position yet on The Voice?
___________________________________
They’re still playing Twister
中华人民共和国
Thanks cobber – sounds nasty.
in nsw labor minns is okay but should have stayed a shadow minister perhaps prue carr or searle or graham are labors best nsw mps along with houssos and jackson but the nsw labor team does not have a lot of tallint minns seems to have got the role most likely due to the awu and health unionas it seems the party room were not kean he seems asmart on toles but waits to long to make a desition he mist an opputunity to get a head of perottit you cant waight 244 hours when your premier evry time you have to make a tough desition maybi this is walt secords fault more interested in media coveridge then policies
I recall a Dr Who episode from the 80’s where he was charged with some kind of breach of time law, and the time lords had a big smart computer that dealt with the case. But it turned out the prosecution was an evil version of the Dr who’d programed the law computer to find Dr Who guilty.
Just saying
Colombian judge says he used ChatGPT in ruling
If he can do it, we’re all out of a job. Ironically the Guardian journalist asked ChatGPT if it should judge a case and ChatGPT said nope.
By why is a journalist handing over this ethical question to the very thing in question, isn’t that a conflict of interest?
My point? We’re at a pivotal moment where a new technology is available, and humanity’s use of it waaaay out strips our moral and ethical framework on how to use it. We saw this only a short 10 or so years ago with the introduction of smart phones and social media, and here we are today.
moohkey is also okay but not surewhy secord and others pushed so hard for yes he hashe is better then perrottit and
Tribunal members are obsessed with the Briginshaw standard as if it it has any practical application to what they do when it does not.
Minns didn’t actually need to formally forward the report on Barilaro to ICAC. He made sure the issue received plenty of publicity and it’s obvious that the report would have found its way to ICAC in any case.
Mostly Interested says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:33 pm
I recall a Dr Who episode from the 80’s where he was charged with some kind of breach of time law, and the time lords had a big smart computer that dealt with the case. But it turned out the prosecution was an evil version of the Dr who’d programed the law computer to find Dr Who guilty.
Just saying
Colombian judge says he used ChatGPT in ruling
If he can do it, we’re all out of a job. Ironically the Guardian journalist asked ChatGPT if it should judge a case and ChatGPT said nope.
By why is a journalist handing over this ethical question to the very thing in question, isn’t that a conflict of interest?
中华人民共和国
I remember that episode. You reckon them ChatGPT can hekp me with Mrs Upnorths’ various questions eg clothing, food and the like?
What are the chances the NSW Clubs do a deal with Perrotet which looks like a mandatory gaming card – when Minns has committed to a trial?
And if they do what effect does that have on Minns standing?