Supplementary elections, by-elections and no polls (open thread)

Minor electoral events from Victoria and Northern Territory in lieu of new polling news to report.

We continue to await the return of Newspoll for the year, which I imagine might be forthcoming ahead of the return of parliament next week. With Essential Research having an off week in the fortnightly cycle, this leaves me with nothing to report on the poll front. Two bits of electoral news worth noting are that the Liberals won the supplementary election for the Victorian state seat of Narracan as expected on Saturday, confirming lower house numbers of 56 for Labor, 19 for the Liberals, nine for the Nationals and four for the Greens; and that Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles has announced that the by-election for the seat of Arafura, following the death of Labor member Lawrence Costa on December 17, will be held on March 18. With that, over to you.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,405 comments on “Supplementary elections, by-elections and no polls (open thread)”

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  1. End endemic anti democratic corruption now!

    Perrottet said on Monday that he had no plans to follow predecessors Barry O’Farrell, Mike Baird and Gladys Berejiklian by signing a memorandum of understanding with ClubsNSW.….

    “I have no intention of doing that. It’s not something that’s in any way on my mind,” Perrottet said.

    Minns also said NSW Labor would not sign any agreement ahead of a possible election victory.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/clubsnsw-boss-accuses-perrottet-of-being-motivated-by-catholic-gut-in-poker-machine-crusade-20230130-p5cggn.html

    What does Minns mean by “ahead of” … so he will sign after the election, it’s disturbing that he could ever countenance signing one.. next he’ll sign an agreement with the Hells Angles .

    Unfortunately NSW voters are being a choice of degrees off corruption to choose from.

  2. Perrottet has passed the allegations from the program to the NSW Education Standards Authority, with the concerns mostly from former students, and ranging from opposition to consent education to discouraging the cervical cancer vaccine because girls should only have one sexual partner.

    Under NSW law, non-government schools are allowed to educate children in accordance with the religious views of the organisations that run them. However, in order to be registered and funded, they must also teach the NSW curriculum and provide evidence that their lessons comply.

    There is a wide range of faith-based schools in NSW, including some linked to controversial religions such as Scientology (The Athena School in Newtown) and the Exclusive Brethren (the One School Global Network).

    The ABC program, Purity; An education in Opus Dei, focuses on four schools run by the Parents for Education Foundation or PARED, whose founders – some of whom were Opus Dei members – believed parents should have greater responsibility over their children’s education, which is a key Catholic teaching.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/not-a-crime-to-be-catholic-perrottet-defends-faith-as-former-school-comes-under-fire-20230130-p5cgkd.html

    The solution is simple: religious schools should not receive government funding, enabling them to teach students whatever the hell they like. Including allowing parents to dictate curriculum which enables catholics to have school standards in line with their ‘faith’.

  3. Momentum is definitely building for the supply of F16 fighter jets to help Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s invasion:

    “Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s most senior adviser has suggested Poland is willing to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighters as Ukraine’s lobbying for the combat jets steps up only a few days after Germany and the US agreed to send over their tanks.

    Andriy Yermak said Ukraine had had “positive signals” from Warsaw in a Telegram posting, although Poland’s prime minister was careful to stress his own country would only act in consultation with Nato allies.

    “We coordinate all actions aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s defence forces with our Nato partners,” Mateusz Morawiecki told a press conference where he announced plans to lift his country’s defence spending to 4% of GDP when asked about the jets. Any possible transfer of fighter jets would come “in full coordination” he added.

    Ukraine began its lobbying campaign for the US-made jets almost immediately after Germany and the US said they would supply Leopard 2 and Abrams tanks, but this time its effort could be successful more quickly.

    The deputy US national security adviser, Jon Finer, said last week that Washington would be discussing the idea of supplying fighter jets “very carefully” with Kyiv and its allies, while other reports said there was growing support for the idea in the Pentagon.

    The British defence secretary, Ben Wallace, on Monday wryly noted that: “I think what we know about all these demands is that … the initial response is no and it ends up being yes.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/30/ukraine-needs-faster-supply-of-western-weapons-says-zelenskiy

    Putin and his cronies will read this and weep. If he was smart, he’d prepare Russian public opinion for the inevitability of his forces’ complete withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory – Crimea included.

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    The Coalition is poised to block Labor’s heavy emissions cap-and-trade scheme, forcing the government to cut a deal with the Greens who are positioning themselves to derail the use of carbon offsets by new coal and gas giants. Jacob Greber understands a meeting of the shadow cabinet today will result in a rejection of the Safeguard Mechanism crediting legislation, which Labor wants to pass into law by the end of March to give business time to prepare for the change by July 1.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/greens-attack-carbon-offset-trading-laws-for-gas-and-coal-firms-20230130-p5cgih
    The pokies battle in NSW is getting hotter. In comments that risk deepening the dispute between ClubsNSW and Perrottet ahead of the March 25 election, the group’s chief executive, Josh Landis, claimed Perrottet did not understand the complexity of the reform and was acting on his “Catholic gut”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/clubsnsw-boss-accuses-perrottet-of-being-motivated-by-catholic-gut-in-poker-machine-crusade-20230130-p5cggn.html
    Following yesterday’s coronial inquiry report, the Age’s editorial declares, “Veronica Nelson never stood a chance. The findings of the inquest into her 2020 death in custody revealed on Monday, as Victorian coroner Simon McGregor detailed, that Nelson had been let down badly by the corrections system. This is a system, he found, that continues to discriminate against Indigenous people but was so riddled with incompetence, wilful neglect and human failures that her fate was sealed virtually from the moment of her arrest.” It calls for bail law reform.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/coroner-s-findings-cement-case-for-bail-law-reform-20230130-p5cgku.html
    The editorial in the SMH says that the extraordinary declaration by ClubsNSW that its new gaming code of conduct will bring an end to problem gambling should be seen for what it is – a pure public relations exercise. Unlike some media, the Herald is unconvinced the ClubsNSW plan – which takes effect from July 1 – is driven by anything other than self-interest.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/clubsnsw-new-problem-gambling-policy-is-pure-public-relations-20230130-p5cgga.html
    Andrew Wilkie tells us why it’s now a safe bet for politicians to take on gambling reform.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/why-it-s-now-a-safe-bet-for-politicians-to-take-on-gambling-reform-20230126-p5cfos.html
    The world is at a “seatbelt moment” with machine learning as it was when the basic safety device was imposed on the car industry in the 1960s and 70s, but so far, no one is installing the seat belts, writes Peter Hartcher who is concerned that time is running out to subdue AI’s overwhelming power
    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/time-is-running-out-to-subdue-ai-s-overwhelming-power-20230130-p5cgdf.html
    Anyone who borrowed at the bottom of the rates cycle and was stress-tested under the old 2.5 percentage point rule is already underwater. The RBA must tread carefully, opines Jess Irvine.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/living-in-mortgage-hell-tens-of-thousands-of-borrowers-on-the-brink-20230130-p5cgdm.html
    Shane Wright and Rachel Clun tell us that home buyers could face another four interest rate rises by August as the Reserve Bank struggles to bring down inflation, putting more downward pressure on the property market and adding to cost-of-living pressures.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/more-rate-pain-on-the-way-as-nation-s-aaa-credit-rating-affirmed-20230130-p5cgip.html
    Stephen Bartholomeusz explains why this will be such a big week when it comes to the global economy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-high-will-rates-go-it-s-a-critical-week-for-the-global-economy-20230130-p5cgdp.html
    Meanwhile, banking regulator John Lonsdale says the wave of expiring fixed rate loans this year will be difficult for some borrowers, but the banking system will be resilient in the face of economic uncertainty and a falling housing market.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/banks-can-handle-the-fixed-rate-cliff-says-apra-20230130-p5cgei.html
    One of Australia’s leading psychiatrists says mentally ill patients being left in solitary confinement for more than 24 hours is illustrative of a national mental health system in crisis. Professor Ian Hickie, a former National Mental Health Commissioner, co-director at The University of Sydney’s Brain and Mind Centre and prominent mental health advocate, said the practice of isolating and physically restraining patients in mental health units could not be ignored.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/traumatising-practices-in-nsw-mental-health-units-cannot-be-ignored-20230127-p5cg1i.html
    The Royal College of Pathologists of Australasia has made a formal bid for Medicare funding to test for “bad cholesterol” that runs in families and has been linked to sudden heart attacks in young people. Aisha Dow reports that high-profile cardiologists last week called for better awareness of the impact of heightened levels of lipoprotein(a), or Lp(a), which they say could affect millions of Australians, at least at mild levels.
    https://www.theage.com.au/healthcare/pathologists-seek-medicare-funding-to-test-for-bad-cholesterol-20230130-p5cgdt.html
    Australia will partner with France to produce “several thousand” rounds of ammunition for Ukraine’s armed forces as it struggles to defend it’s against Russia’s invasion. Rob Harris reports that the announcement was made at a meeting in Paris in a relations-rebuilding diplomatic meeting yesterday between Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles and their French counterparts.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/a-statement-australia-and-france-to-jointly-provide-ammunition-to-ukraine-20230131-p5cgne.html
    It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the referendum on the Voice will be won not as a virtually unanimous offering to First Nations Australians but narrowly in an ugly, bitter and divisive brawl between older and younger Australians. Even a win will have the capacity to leave divisions in the nation, and in political parties that will endure for many years, writes Jack Waterford.
    https://johnmenadue.com/voice-vote-may-demand-blood-in-the-water/
    A bipartisan parliamentary committee is set to call on the federal government to list Iran’s brutal Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation, as new evidence emerges of Iran’s attempts to strong-arm Iranian Australians. Coalition and Greens MPs on the Senate’s standing committee on foreign affairs, defence and trade are expected to form a rare unity ticket to recommend the move in a report due tomorrow even as a top legal expert questioned its legality.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-under-pressure-to-list-islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps-as-terrorist-group-20230130-p5cgf3.html
    Student outcomes in literacy and numeracy continue to go backwards. Why? Missing from the list of causes for poor learning outcomes, as it is from every such list, is the ineffectiveness of the Learning Assistance Program, argues Alison Gentle.
    https://johnmenadue.com/the-missing-piece-in-the-school-reform-debate/
    Pressure is mounting for the Albanese Government to end the Coalition’s legacy of neoliberalism and take steps towards wealth equality, writes Bilal Cleland.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/taxing-the-super-rich-a-good-start-to-ending-wealth-inequality,17186
    Australian households are facing huge jumps in their gas bills later this week as retailers pass through double-digit price increases, threatening to worsen the cost-of-living crisis. Origin Energy, EnergyAustralia and AGL will raise gas tariffs on Wednesday, affecting their customers across New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria, South Australia and the ACT. Victorians are among the worst affected with average AGL usage tariffs set to rise by 24.9 per cent on variable rates, while EnergyAustralia says its average hike is 26.7 per cent – or about $480 a year.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2023/01/30/gas-prices-bills-energy/
    Labor’s whistleblower bill goes too far in excluding personal conduct such as sexual harassment complaints from protection, the Greens and legal stakeholders have warned. The Greens justice spokesperson, David Shoebridge, said the bill “excludes whistleblower complaints with a mixture of employment elements”, which he claims goes a step further than the related recommendation from a review into the laws.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/30/whistleblower-bill-excluding-sexual-harassment-complaints-from-protection-goes-too-far-greens-senator-says
    Tens of thousands of Chinese students enrolled at Australian universities will need to rush into the country before semester one after the Chinese government announced it would stop honouring qualifications gained through online learning. The edict, published on Saturday, surprised Australian universities accustomed to online learning that were not preparing for so many Chinese students to return at once. The abrupt policy shift could add demand to scarce flights from China and accommodation markets and put pressure on Australia’s strained visa processing unit, but may also help ease the worker shortage.
    https://www.smh.com.au/education/snap-chinese-edict-to-send-students-rushing-back-to-australian-campuses-20230129-p5cga9.html
    Demand for accommodation from the 50,000 Chinese students or more likely to return to Australian university campuses within weeks could fuel at least a 5 per cent jump in rents across inner Melbourne and Sydney and worsen rental shortages, experts say.
    https://www.afr.com/property/residential/inner-city-rents-may-jump-5pc-with-return-of-55-000-chinese-students-20230130-p5cge4
    Christopher Knaus reports that Francis Sullivan, the former head of the Catholic church’s Truth Justice and Healing Council, says the removal of ribbons commemorating abuse survivors from St Mary’s Cathedral appears designed to prevent the scandal from being “associated with cardinal Pell” in the days leading up to his funeral.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/31/george-pell-funeral-removing-abuse-victims-ribbons-from-cathedral-fence-wrong-former-senior-church-official-says
    A short-seller’s attack on the Adani Group is a critique of Indian corporate ethics, regulation and law enforcement, writes Aaron Patrick who wonders if the Adani group is a giant fraud.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/is-the-adani-group-a-giant-fraud-20230130-p5cgh4

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    John Shakespeare

    Cathy Wilcox

    Dionne Gain

    Fiona Katauskas

    Peter Broelman

    Mark Knight

    Spooner – totally fixated!

    From the US








  5. Oh well, there go the hopes and dreams of the Suffren fan club:

    Paris: Australia will partner with France to produce “several thousand” rounds of ammunition for Ukraine’s armed forces as it struggles to defend itself against Russia’s invasion.

    The announcement was made in a diplomatic meeting in Paris on Monday between Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles and their French counterparts.

    The plan’s unveiling comes as the nations rebuild a relationship that hit rock bottom 18 months ago following the cancellation of Australia’s submarine contract.

    French defence company Nexter will manufacture the 155-millimetre shells, a NATO-standard artillery calibre that is used in many field guns, howitzers, and gun-howitzers. Australia will provide the gunpowder for the ammunition.

    The ministers said the first shipment of the multimillion-dollar spend would be available in the coming months, and sent straight from the contractor.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/a-statement-australia-and-france-to-jointly-provide-ammunition-to-ukraine-20230131-p5cgne.html

  6. For all the boosters of nuclear-powered submarines, we say this: unless Australia has a highly skilled construction base, we will be condemned to forever seeking to buy them from the US or the UK – and, as we are witnessing, the chances of that ever happening are receding. As those two nations learned from the Sea Wolf and Astute programs, without a continuous submarine construction program, the loss of skills can be catastrophic.

    https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/australias-contribution-to-aukus-should-be-a-next-generation-conventional-submarine/

    The only way to fast track a nuclear boat would be to work with France – and that seems beyond the capacity of Australian policy makers, completely dazzled like a kangaroo in the headlights by AUKUS.

  7. Sceptic,
    The Defence Minister, despite ignorant comments here to the contrary, has been an exceptional planner of the nation’s defence capabilities going forward.

  8. Thanks BK

    Re Hartcher’s article: “ There is no longer any way a teacher or lecturer can be confident that students’ work is their own – existing plagiarism checkers have no defence against ChatGPT.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/time-is-running-out-to-subdue-ai-s-overwhelming-power-20230130-p5cgdf.html
    ———————————————————————————————

    ChatGPT will be yet another extraordinary interrupter in a 21st century thus far replete with interrupters. It will be challenging for professors, teachers and parents alike and may revolutionise classrooms from primary school to University just to begin with. The applications are endless and the moral dimension of its use will shape even children from an early age. To use or not to use? As if the lives of teachers weren’t already difficult.

  9. Australia and France will together supply thousands of artillery shells to Ukraine’s military, The Guardian reports. The deal is worth several million dollars and is the first of its kind since the Morrison government’s unceremonious French exit from the $90 billion submarine deal, a diplomatic bungle that iced over our relations with them.

  10. As a former teacher, ChatGPT (?) would be negated by my policy of never setting assessment work that could be done outside the classroom. Assessment tasks were smaller, handwritten tasks uniquely targeting specific syllabus outcomes. Allowing for those students who have physical difficulty in using a pen or seriously bad handwriting would allow use of a device but the connectivity would be off or the classroom WiFi turned off.
    This is perfectly possible as we had hour long periods, more than enough to complete any task.
    This has the advantage for the student in that they would know what curriculum item(s) would be assessed beforehand, often the assessment would be open-book with a focus on interpretive skills rather than accumulated knowledge.
    Short exam type assessments are also effective in that time frame.
    I’m also fairly sure that the average teacher is well aware of a student’s ability to write and it would be difficult for the student to submit something sourced through AI to replicate the known writing skills of the student.

  11. Morning all. Cat, Marles is a politician. In that respect he is doing a good job rebuilding relations with France. He knows nothing about submarines or defence technology generally. I also doubt he has the ability to reign in misbehavior within the defense establishment here. We shall see what the review says.

    The official communique from the Australia France ministerial meeting is here. Joint supply of artillery shells is a good idea, but the numbers are too small.
    https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/statements/2023-01-30/joint-statement-second-france-australia-foreign-and-defence-ministerial-consultations

  12. Poor Poohline seems to be very angry about this…

    “The basis of family law in Australia would change with reforms the government says aim to reduce conflict between parents and put the needs of children as the top priority.

    Draft changes, released on Monday by Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus, would roll back Howard government requirements for both parents to be consulted in long-term decisions about their children’s future.

    The reforms are expected to anger elements of the father’s rights movement and its champions in Parliament, but one expert says it must occur for the courts to be workable when parents are in serious conflict.

    Domestic violence campaigners have welcomed the proposal, saying the move will prevent partners from weaponising the courts against their families…

    …The institution has been subject to multiple inquiries, including by One Nation Senator Pauline Hanson, who was selected by former prime minister Scott Morrison to co-chair a committee probing family law, and accused women of fabricating claims to win custody disputes.”
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2023/01/30/family-law-shake-up-reform/?utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020230131&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Adestra

  13. The Matildas’ opening Women’s World Cup match has been moved across Sydney from the new $828m Allianz Stadium to Accor Stadium as Fifa seek to capitalise on “significant interest” in tickets for the tournament co-hosted by Australia and New Zealand. A bumper opening matchday could now attract more than 100,000 fans, with Auckland to host the opening ceremony and first match between New Zealand and Norway at Eden Park, before Australia kick off their Group B campaign against the Republic of Ireland later on 20 July. Allianz Stadium, which was built at great expense and opened to the public in August last year, holds 42,500. Accor Stadium, the old Olympic stadium in the city’s inner west and the tournament’s largest venue with a capacity of 83,500.

  14. ‘….
    Burney said the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander First Action Plan reflected the government’s joint commitment and actions to reduce the number of First Nations children in out-of-home care, in line with the National Agreement on Closing the Gap.

    I applaud the efforts of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Leadership Group, SNAICC – National Voice for our Children and governments across Australia in developing this framework, and committing to the actions needed to ensure every child in Australia is safe and supported to thrive.

    The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander First Action Plan developed with First Nations young people, families and organisations is centred on empowering and supporting self-determination of First Nations families.

    The plan focuses on early intervention and prevention measures at a child, family and system level which is crucial to keeping more First Nations families together and safe.

    The federal government has committed $30m for five initiatives in the 2022-23 budget.
    ….’

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/jan/31/australia-news-live-marles-and-wong-hail-defence-deal-with-france-adani-shares-on-the-slide-again?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-63d8230f8f085c034debdfda#block-63d8230f8f085c034debdfda

  15. Thanks for the roundup BK. I avoided watching Four Corners last night because I knew it would be infuriating. Perrottet’s handing out tens of millions to his religious buddies is a conflict of interest of Morrisonian dimensions. How can he possibly hope to be reeelected?

    NSW Labor’s inability to cut the umbilical cord to poker machine money gives us little hope for real improvement after the change in government.

  16. Paul Bongiorno about The Voice referendum:
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/01/31/paul-bongiorno-no-campaign-voice/?utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020230131&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Adestra

    Note this:

    “The ‘Yes’ campaign, which begins in earnest at the end of February, must spell this out more clearly and show how the Voice is fit for purpose.”

    Yes, and it will. The important thing is that the campaign is both wide and deep, it must reach all, and explain it all. Clear up the nonsense and propaganda of the “No” camp. Above all, the Greens must decide: Are they going to be exploited by the Conservatives by supporting “No”; or are they going to help Progress this country forward by supporting “Yes”?

    There are no nuances: Yes-Progressive vs No-Conservative…. Bandt and the Greens: Who are you?

  17. Barrett Strong, a pivotal figure in the history of Motown Records, has died at the age of 81..

    He sang the label’s first major hit, Money (That’s What I Want), in 1959, and went on to co-write classic songs like I Heard It Through the Grapevine, War and Papa Was a Rollin’ Stone

  18. Why the Peter Dutton approach to the Voice to Parliament won’t work:

    “Opinion polls suggest Peter Dutton and his media accomplices – both Murdoch and the Nine newspapers – are having some initial success in confusing the Voice issue.

    It’s not surprising as the tactic has worked very well in many countries in many situations for a long time. It also suits the media, which mainlines on a daily fix of controversy and ‘what ifs’.

    But in the long haul, will it continue to work when it comes to the Voice?

    Although the media is hooked on its obsession with who said what; what new detailed question has been raised; what some individual said; and what the Prime Minister didn’t say, there is at the same time a huge groundswell of support for the Voice from individuals, companies, organisations and professional service firms.

    The Voice campaign is gearing up for a ground campaign that will be much, much larger than that mounted by the Teals, who will – of course – be replicating their own campaigns in campaigns for the Voice.

    The Greens may have a minority of doubters, but if they opt to oppose the Voice they can wave goodbye to much of their progressive credibility – so in the end you would think they won’t take the risk and will join the push.”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/01/30/peter-dutton-voice-to-parliament/?utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020230131&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Adestra

  19. BK on the “Safeguard” mechanism, I am not surprised the Greens are opposing it. It is very open to abuse, just as Angus Taylor designed it to be. I think Labor will struggle to get the Teals to support this one either.

  20. DB

    Yes, that is what will happen. Anything being assessed (at least, anything involving turning in a written piece) will happen in class time basically under exam conditions.

    But that’s essentially already the case in my classroom.

  21. “The Coalition is poised to block Labor’s heavy emissions cap-and-trade scheme, forcing the government to cut a deal with the Greens who are positioning themselves to derail the use of carbon offsets by new coal and gas giants. Jacob Greber understands a meeting of the shadow cabinet today will result in a rejection of the Safeguard Mechanism crediting legislation, which Labor wants to pass into law by the end of March to give business time to prepare for the change by July 1.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/greens-attack-carbon-offset-trading-laws-for-gas-and-coal-firms-20230130-p5cgih

    Wreckers!!!!
    ALP and LNP same same yeah Rex and P1.

    Greens
    You better understand this. This is what European countries mostly do
    with their carbon credit scheme with minor variations.

  22. Ah The Guardian: Lukewarm on the YES to The Voice, very hot on Lidia Thorpe….

    “Lidia Thorpe welcomes sovereignty assurances over voice but remains undecided”…

    Hey, TG, Lidia just represents an unrepresentative minority within the party of the 12% primary vote… Stop treating her as a “national leader”…

    Bandt is welcome to follow Thorpe towards the cliff of the Greens’ oblivion… and then live with that “achievement” for the rest of his life!

  23. Thanks Griff for the link. Senator Thorpe has sidelined herself with these words. “I want to see action. Not words. I’m not saying which way I’m going until I see action.” In as much as whatever anyone does to appease her it will never be good enough; she’s no longer part of the conversation.


  24. The editorial in the SMH says that the extraordinary declaration by ClubsNSW that its new gaming code of conduct will bring an end to problem gambling should be seen for what it is – a pure public relations exercise. Unlike some media, the Herald is unconvinced the ClubsNSW plan – which takes effect from July 1 – is driven by anything other than self-interest.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/clubsnsw-new-problem-gambling-policy-is-pure-public-relations-20230130-p5cgga.html

    But SMH I thought LNP supports self-regulation of industries

  25. Queensland Health appears to be in a state of flux, even with the announcement of ‘the recruitment of more than 800 new intern doctors and 200 ambulance officers.’ There’s no easy solution to inexperienced doctors & ambulance officer, similar to, say, lawyers who usually need five years pracitical experience before they learn the ropes. The difference is though, lawyers don’t save people’s lives, deliver babies.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-31/qld-health-announcement-dath-palaszczuk-doctors-hospitals/101908502


  26. Australia will partner with France to produce “several thousand” rounds of ammunition for Ukraine’s armed forces as it struggles to defend it’s against Russia’s invasion. Rob Harris reports that the announcement was made at a meeting in Paris in a relations-rebuilding diplomatic meeting yesterday between Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles and their French counterparts.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/a-statement-australia-and-france-to-jointly-provide-ammunition-to-ukraine-20230131-p5cgne.html

    It seems Australia will provide the Gun powder for those “several thousands ” of ammunition.
    So Australia and France again established a working relationship. But it is moot whether anything else will arise from this.
    After Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton humiliated France by cancelling French Sub deal it is creditable this small step forward was allowed under French leadership of Macron.

  27. Students rush back to Australia after China bans online learning with foreign universities

    Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist from the Australian National University’s Australian Centre on China in the World, told the ABC that China’s high unemployment rate and lockdowns had pushed the decision.

    Mr Sung said China was experiencing high youth unemployment, and the government hoped sending some young people abroad to study would alleviate the problem.

    “One of the consequences of lockdowns has been difficulty creating job growth, resulting in China having one of its highest unemployment [rates] among its youth in recent years,” he said.

    He also said the push would manage Chinese youth’s “political energy”, which he said had been a concern for the government since November’s anti-lockdown protests.

    “This decision moves them out of China, at least for a while.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-31/chinese-students-australia-return-university-online-class-ban/101906794

  28. Banning students from using ChatGPT
    would be like banning them from using Google twenty years ago. Like it or not, asking AIs to do things is going to largely replace doing things. Education will need to adapt.

  29. I can see Senator Thorpe splitting with the Greens, and following a similar path to the one taken by Senator Lambie after she quit Palmer’s lot. At this point in her career, Senator Thorpe is building her national brand and soon will not need the Greens. Who knows, she may succeed in her career goals if there is a state with suitable demographics. But the question is whether Bandt can see this possibility. And if so, whether cutting her loose now rather than in three or six months is the better option for his party.


  30. Tens of thousands of Chinese students enrolled at Australian universities will need to rush into the country before semester one after the Chinese government announced it would stop honouring qualifications gained through online learning. The edict, published on Saturday, surprised Australian universities accustomed to online learning that were not preparing for so many Chinese students to return at once. The abrupt policy shift could add demand to scarce flights from China and accommodation markets and put pressure on Australia’s strained visa processing unit, but may also help ease the worker shortage.
    https://www.smh.com.au/education/snap-chinese-edict-to-send-students-rushing-back-to-australian-campuses-20230129-p5cga9.html

    Interesting isn’t it BW?
    How can Australian government process Student visas in such a short time and how can Students reach in time for start of first semester/term in Aussie Unis because of shortage of flights?

  31. watermelon @ 8.45
    Education will readily adapt to the use of ChatGPT, as they have done with, out-sourced ‘essay writers’.
    Alas, students may experience a huge fall when they are confronted with assessment tasks and examinations where devices aren’t allowed and the wi-fi is disconnected.
    Receiving a near class load of identikit essays or papers would never be considered suspicious, would it?
    As another poster observed, most teachers would be well aware of the writing styles and abilities of most of their direct students and those in their year level.

  32. C@tmomma @ Tuesday, January 31, 2023 at 6:54 am:

    “Paris: Australia will partner with France to produce “several thousand” rounds of ammunition for Ukraine’s armed forces as it struggles to defend itself against Russia’s invasion.”
    =========================

    A big thank you to the Albanese Labor Government and the local manufacturing industry. Artillery ammo is is the heavy lifter among weapons supplies in this war, and should be acknowledged accordingly.

  33. War in Ukraine:

    The Ukrainians are preparing for the coming Spring campaign ….

    “Kyiv and its western allies are engaged in “fast-track” talks on the possibility of equipping Ukraine with long-range missiles and military aircraft, a top aide to Ukraine’s president said. Mykhailo Podolyak said Ukraine’s supporters in the west “understand how the war is developing” and the need to supply planes capable of providing cover for armoured vehicles the US and Germany have pledged.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/30/russia-ukraine-war-at-a-glance-what-we-know-on-day-341-of-the-invasion


  34. Demand for accommodation from the 50,000 Chinese students or more likely to return to Australian university campuses within weeks could fuel at least a 5 per cent jump in rents across inner Melbourne and Sydney and worsen rental shortages, experts say.
    https://www.afr.com/property/residential/inner-city-rents-may-jump-5pc-with-return-of-55-000-chinese-students-20230130-p5cge4

    In continuation of my post @8:50 am
    How can Australia provide accommodation to Chinese students when the rental availability is running at about 2%?

  35. BK @ #6 Tuesday, January 31st, 2023 – 6:53 am

    The Coalition is poised to block Labor’s heavy emissions cap-and-trade scheme, forcing the government to cut a deal with the Greens who are positioning themselves to derail the use of carbon offsets by new coal and gas giants. Jacob Greber understands a meeting of the shadow cabinet today will result in a rejection of the Safeguard Mechanism crediting legislation, which Labor wants to pass into law by the end of March to give business time to prepare for the change by July 1.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/greens-attack-carbon-offset-trading-laws-for-gas-and-coal-firms-20230130-p5cgih

    So … Labor adopts a signature COALition climate policy (again!), gets elected by promising to do almost nothing, and still can’t get legislation through the parliament?

    One might almost be tempted to think they weren’t really trying.

    If would serve Labor right if it turns out that the Greens turn the idiotic Safeguard Mechanism from an expensive “Licence to Pollute” scheme (for which the consumers and not the energy suppliers would pay) into a scheme that actually discourages new coal and gas extraction, then I guess that would be a win for everyone (except the fossil fuel cartel and their cronies in the major parties).

    Sadly, after a bit of political grandstanding, I expect the COALition will decide it is in their financial backer’s best interests to roll over and let the legislation through.

  36. Crocus

    ChatGPT will be yet another extraordinary interrupter in a 21st century thus far replete with interrupters. It will be challenging for professors, teachers and parents alike and may revolutionise classrooms from primary school to University just to begin with. The applications are endless and the moral dimension of its use will shape even children from an early age. To use or not to use? As if the lives of teachers weren’t already difficult.

    ________________

    You are right, its a massive disruption. Whilst there’s been a lot of hand wringing at the loss of our nation’s educational standards, I’m more concerned about the massive disruption to the workforce.

    The contact centre services industry is built on employing fairly low skilled (relatively) people, often first jobs for many. Some existing off the shelf voice recognition and speach synthesis would effectively half the need for that workforce.

    In Australia there’s estimates of around 300,000in the industry. With aggressive uptake, we could effectively be adding an additional percentage point or two to the unemployment rate in less than a year.

    I’ve been watching this one closely, I see the implementation of automation of white collar tasks in my industry. To this point its been a slow messy job, particularly chat bots that need question by question training, and specialists to keep them running.

    It could turn out great, 3 day working weeks at same pay, OR, we’ll have massive under employment in the lower middle class with a similar rate of wealth loss and transfer.

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