Supplementary elections, by-elections and no polls (open thread)

Minor electoral events from Victoria and Northern Territory in lieu of new polling news to report.

We continue to await the return of Newspoll for the year, which I imagine might be forthcoming ahead of the return of parliament next week. With Essential Research having an off week in the fortnightly cycle, this leaves me with nothing to report on the poll front. Two bits of electoral news worth noting are that the Liberals won the supplementary election for the Victorian state seat of Narracan as expected on Saturday, confirming lower house numbers of 56 for Labor, 19 for the Liberals, nine for the Nationals and four for the Greens; and that Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles has announced that the by-election for the seat of Arafura, following the death of Labor member Lawrence Costa on December 17, will be held on March 18. With that, over to you.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,405 comments on “Supplementary elections, by-elections and no polls (open thread)”

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  1. The federal government has been accused by the gas industry of having no plan to fix a looming gas shortage, which the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has warned could start as early as 2027, potentially destabilising the energy grid.

    Gas companies have argued environmental approvals, finance, state gas bans and a lack of pipelines are preventing dozens of gas supply projects from being approved.

    Maybe the gas industry should stop with the crocodile tears & the Federal Government can implement mandatory supply standards to ensure local demand is satisfied before exports

  2. “Sceptic says:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 6:44 am
    Washington: The US Congress could not support the $US20 billion ($28.3 billion) sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey until Ankara ratifies the NATO memberships of Sweden and Finland, a bipartisan group of senators said.”

    Love it!… Playing hard ball can have its negative effects, as the Turks may be learning right now.
    Perhaps a reasonable compromise may be reached on Sweden and Finland, and that, I am sure, may affect the course of the war. Putin failed: not only Ukraine has not been neutralised, but NATO is further expanding as a result.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Get your teeth onto THIS lot!

    The Robodebt Royal Commission is hearing damning evidence of public sector dysfunction. Now it must probe the question of culture, writes Laura Tingle in a long examination.
    As more terrible details emerge in the robodebt royal commission, a case is being built of misfeasance in public office, writes Rick Morton in quite some detail.
    The minister responsible for robodebt ordered an independent investigation into the controversial scheme but the damning results were never shared with his department, allowing the unlawful program to continue for several years, reports Alex Mitchell.
    PwC was commissioned to do a report on Robodebt in 2017 but but can’t recall if it was finalised, or not, or why. What’s the scam? PwC is the scam. This was the Big4 consultant the government used to attack poor people and now cover it up. Highlights from the testimony of partner Shane West at the Royal Commission yesterday. Michael West piles on the consultant here.
    The light scrutiny of ‘dark money’ shows that our political donation laws are broken, declares Peter Hartcher. A good read.
    Shane Wright explains how Jim Chalmers is taking on capitalism as we know it in a bid to save stretched households.
    John Hewson says that Treasurer Jim Chalmers has written an excellent, thought-provoking essay in the latest edition of The Monthly. It attempts to set his budgetary process, which he began last October and will advance in May, against the background of recent crises and in the context of the broader economic, social and environmental circumstances of our time. He points out that Chalmers is being attacked in various sections of the media and by the usual suspects of vested interests.
    More on the subject from Wright with Jim Chalmers saying the 2020s could define the nation’s future, with its economic fortunes to be determined by the choices it makes in three key areas.
    The Treasurer handed in his latest essay and bought a doozy of a conversation, writes Michelle Grattan.
    Pontificating Paul Kelly begins this effort with, “The historical purpose of the Labor Party has been to civilise capitalism. While Labor exists that will never change. It means Labor’s purpose rests on the proposition that capitalism is defective, flawed and needs to be civilised.”
    Katherine Murphy says that the fury over Chalmers’ essay is a reminder to Labor that change won’t get an easy ride. She writes that one of the more comical subplots of the political week has been the fury belching from the opinion pages of the Australian and the Australian Financial Review in response to Jim Chalmers suggesting in conciliatory terms that capitalism should (brace yourselves readers) be tethered by values.
    Jim Chalmers delivered an astute clarification of aspects of his concepts of Values-Based Capitalism and Co-Investment for the rebuilding of the Australian economy at a time of volatility in financial markets (7.30 Report 31 January 2023). In juxtaposition, The Australian and several mainstream media agencies preferred vilification of Jim Chalmers above fair but critical reporting, writes Denis Bright.
    John Kehoe explains why Chalmers is backing social investing and tells us that many experts are keen on the Treasurer’s wish to push companies, governments and investors together but others say there are better ways to improve wellbeing.
    The party that calls itself Liberal and describes itself as conservative is neither liberal nor conservative, opines Dave Donovan.,17203
    The Albanese government’s second year in power is shaping up as a wild ride. The prime minister is intent on using every opportunity to establish a legacy as a Labor reformer “changing the nation for the better”, writes Paul Bongiorno who looks at the forces lining up to derail him.
    Albanese says health reform has top priority, but doctors are unimpressed, say Natassia Chrysanthos and Kate Aubusson.
    GPs will receive boosted rebates and there will be payments for working after hours, as part of a $750 million package in the May budget designed to rescue Medicare and take pressure off the crumbling public hospital system. Phil Coorey and Tom McIlroy tell us that, after a meeting of the national cabinet on Friday, and the release of a taskforce report into how to strengthen Medicare, the federal government also did not rule out allowing allied health professionals such as pharmacists to perform some tasks of doctors, such as prescribing medicines.
    In this Medicare review, Josh Butler tells us what changes can we expect to see – and what’s still missing.
    The future of primary healthcare is integrated, team-based practice – and Medicare must be ready for it, urges Stephen Duckett who says, “Practices need to be funded to include a range of health professionals and provide outreach. And they have to be supported by IT systems that work”.
    Medicare reform is off to a promising start. Now comes the hard part, says the Grattan Institute.
    Australia is entering a period of falling inflation after annual price rises peaked late last year, but that will not stop the Reserve Bank’s official interest rate hitting 3.6 per cent, the nation’s leading economists have said.
    Victorians could buy their electricity direct from the state government as it considers ways to expand the new-look State Electricity Commission beyond what was promised during the election campaign, explain Royce Millar and Josh Gordon.
    Penny Wong has visited no less than 24 Indo-Pacific nations in that time, including an ice-breaking trip to Beijing, and has won the praise of some of her harshest critics for the way she’s delivered a message that Australia was under new management and bringing a diplomatic approach that, as she said this week, “puts listening above lecturing”. Rob Harris is referring to her speech to King’s College in London where her nuanced but nonetheless pointed remarks about British colonialism within Asia and the Pacific had left an impression she’d flown in specifically to harangue the old colonial master.
    “Net zero, to use the first great climate change metaphor, hasn’t got a snowflake’s chance in hell. It’s a fraudulent concept. It’s not real. It requires an heroic leap of faith, magical thinking. It cannot exist in the physical universe”, declares Greg Sheridan.
    The federal opposition says the addition of a new sentence in the proposal to enshrine an Indigenous Voice in the Constitution highlights a broader failure of process and consultation in the government’s referendum strategy, writes Lisa Visentin.
    Gerard Henderson goes off again on the ABC as he writes about the Voice referendum.
    New details of the ‘No’ case against the Voice reveal scrutiny of native title as one of three prongs in the alternative campaign, writes Karen Middleton who takes us inside the Voice’s ‘No’ campaign.
    In a show of unity, the prime minister and state and territory premiers have officially backed an Indigenous voice to parliament after Friday’s national cabinet meeting in Canberra. State and territory heads signed on to a “statement of intent”, formally supporting an Indigenous voice to parliament.
    According to Paul Sakkal and Lisa Visentin, Greens Senator Lidia Thorpe has demanded that none of her fellow Greens MPs, including another Indigenous senator, meet with Indigenous community members about the Voice to parliament, insisting only she was allowed to do so.
    The government’s review of the flawed carbon credits scheme is nuanced, political and confusing, writes Mike Seccombe who tells us what the carbon credits review didn’t say.
    Australia could end up with a 30-year-old nuclear-powered submarine – as old as the navy’s Collins class boats – as an interim measure, as AUKUS leaders prepare to meet next month to unveil the preferred pathway for Australia’s future submarine fleet, writes Andrew Tillett.
    Lucy Cormack and Tom Rabe report that the Perrottet government has handed the corruption watchdog a copy of a scathing investigation which found an intervention by the office of the then-deputy premier John Barilaro diverted funding for a $100 million bushfire recovery program away from Labor-held electorates. They really had no option after Minns’ ultimation, did they?
    The NSW Coalition government has had to deal with waves of scandal in the past few years, including one that forced the resignation of a premier, but it is hard to think of anything more cynical than the pork-barrelling of recovery funds intended for victims of the 2019 Black Summer bushfires, declares the SMH editorial that says this ICAC investigation can show if grants pork-barrelling is corruption.
    Here’s Amanda Meade’s usually interesting weekly media round-up.
    Coles and Woolworths have been ordered to dump more than 5200 tonnes of soft-plastic waste into landfill from their failed national recycling scheme. The NSW environment watchdog issued “clean-up orders” to the supermarket giants for 15 warehouses and storage depots around the state where soft plastics have been stockpiled by REDcycle, the Melbourne-based business responsible for running the national recycling scheme.
    Frank Bongiorno tells us how Labor’s arts revival is taking centre stage. He says that we will have a better idea what it all amounts to in May, when the government delivers the most critical budget for the cultural sector this century.
    Matt Wade provides us with the four charts that show pokies are the most destructive form of gambling.
    The only thing worse than junk mail is paying for your MP to send it, cries Malcolm Knox who laments that a trip to the letterbox is now simply a rubbish-clearing operation, to transfer paper to the recycling bin a few paces away.
    George Pell, lauded at his funeral this week, was the subject of 10 abuse claims at the royal commission, writes Des Cahill who concludes his contribution with, “The victims of clerical sexual abuse and their families will continue to tie their protest ribbons to the gates of St Mary’s. The church will continue to remove them. The hurt will continue, just as the adulation and whitewashing of George Pell’s life will continue.”
    Peter Ryan writes about the subject of the senate committee into concussions and repeated head trauma in contact sports. He gives us examples of the effects of these injuries.
    As Western Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the state faces the vast task of post-flood rebuilding in a way that prepares for more extreme rainfall events, writes Jesse Noakes.
    Former prime minister Scott Morrison’s decision to stop a controversial gas field from being explored off the NSW coastline is set to be overturned, after the federal government and two gas companies agreed to end a looming court battle, reports Anne Hyland.
    The former prime minister’s use of secret ministerial powers in the Asset Energy gas exploration veto cannot be defended, Commonwealth court filings reveal, writes Karen Middleton.
    Michael Pascoe tells us why the fearmongering about a China-US war is over the top.
    Clancy Yeates tells us that Insurance Australia Group has said premiums are set to keep rising steeply for at least another year as it passes on higher costs from natural disasters and inflation to customers, and as it seeks to hit financial targets.
    Queen Elizabeth has died yet an FOI request into plans for her death, made 4 years ago, lives on. The institutions responsible for citizens getting timely access to information that would otherwise allow them to participate in policy debates and hold the government to account are broken. It’s like getting spoilt fruit instead of fresh, reports Rex Patrick.
    “Arsehole of the Week” nomination goes to this Sunshine Coast woman arrested on DUI charge with a staggering 0.419 alcohol reading.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Andrew Dyson

    Matt Golding

    John Shakespeare

    Mark David

    Alan Moir

    Jon Kudelka

    Jim Pavlidis

    Richard Giliberto

    Simon Letch

    Matt Davidson

    Glen Le Lievre

    Mark Knight


    From the US

  4. If it cost $254Billion over 10 years to help get Labor elected by their support for the Tories Stage 3 tax cuts, so be it.
    It was worth every cent.
    Ever since I’ve followed politics, there has continually been calls for tax cuts, even after they were given and still will be for eternity.

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