The spoils of defeat

A changing of the guard among what remains of the conservative forces in Western Australia.

After a weekend of convulsions among what remains of the parliamentary ranks of the Liberals and Nationals in Western Australia, both parties settled on new leaders yesterday, with Moore MP Shane Love taking the mantle of Opposition Leader as head of the Nationals, who have four seats in the lower house, and Vasse MP Libby Mettam emerging leader of the Liberals, who have two. To deal with the developments in turn:

• The ball began to roll when Mia Davies, who has led the Nationals and hence the opposition since the 2021 election, unexpectedly announced her resignation on Friday, though she will serve out her term as member for Central Wheatbelt. With North West Central MP only having served in parliament since a by-election in September, this left the the party’s other two lower house members, Moore MP Shane Love and Roe MP Peter Rundle, as the only plausible successors (the party has a further three seats in the Legislative Council). Rundle declared himself a “potential contender” on Sunday, but in the event Love was chosen unopposed, with Rundle replacing him as deputy.

• Hours after Mia Davies’ announcement on Friday, Vasse MP Libby Mettam launched her long-anticipated challenge against her only Liberal lower house colleague, Cottesloe MP David Honey. This left the matter effectively to be determined by the party’s seven Legislative Council members, with weekend reports suggesting five were lining up behind Mettam (Tjorn Sibma from North Metropolitan region, who uniquely went on the record, together with Peter Collier from North Metropolitan, Steve Thomas from South West, Steve Martin from Agricultural and Donna Faragher from East Metropolitan), with Honey claiming the support only of Nick Goiran from South Metropolitan and Neil Thomson from Mining and Pastoral. Honey duly conceded defeat and left Mettam to take the position unopposed. Steve Thomas was also elected unopposed to succeed Mettam as deputy.

Liberal internal affairs have been dominated over the past 18 months by controversy over the machinations of “the Clan”, a loose factional grouping including Nick Goiran and Peter Collier, together with Mathias Cormann before he quit federal politics in October 2020. Mettam sought to seize the initiative yesterday by announcing that Goiran, a religious conservative with an extensive network of support in the party’s southern Perth branches, would be excluded from the shadow ministry, which since the 2021 election has found places for all Liberal and Nationals members.

On the other side of the aisle, Labor is negotiating a less consequential but electorally noteworthy difficulty arising from the retirement of high-profile former minister Alannah MacTiernan and the resulting vacancy for her South West region upper house seat. Such vacancies are filled through a countback of ballot papers from the previous election and not with the favoured nominee of the party, as in the Senate. The top three of Labor’s six candidates on the South West ticket were elected in 2021, and in the normal course of events the countback would elect the next candidate along. However, The West Australian reports the candidate in question, John Mondy, is “understood to be reluctant” to tear himself away from a successful Bunbury signwriting business to spend two years as a parliamentarian.

That puts the focus on the fifth candidate, Narrogin lawyer Ben Dawkins, who faces dozens of charges of breaching a family violence restraining order, which he says relates solely to “emotive” language in emails he sent to his estranged wife. Dawkins is said to be interested in taking up the vacancy, but would do so as an independent given his legal troubles have caused him to be suspended from the ALP. The situation does not threaten Labor’s upper house majority, which inclusive of MacTiernan consisted of 22 seats in a chamber of 36.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

22 comments on “The spoils of defeat”

  1. “Leadership contest” with two WA Lib candidates! Flip a coin?

    The L/NP only need to win 24 lower house seats in the next election…McGowan could be the longest serving head of state in Australia, if he decides to keep going.

    To the “it’s bad for democracy” types, ultra-conservative factions like “The Clan” are bad for politics and society.

  2. Dustbootsays:

    Tuesday, January 31, 2023 at 12:48 pm

    My bad for democracy take is this.

    If the main opposition party is unelectable due to it’s policies then it is bad for democracy.

    The fix is for the party to change and not the electorate

  3. A merry eye reading the input of the West Australian newspaper would lead one to believe the Liberals have won a billion dollar lottery. Smiles all round with Dr Honey looking very relieved in the background. Meanwhile some sour grapes from the Clan/Rat Pack who are now on the outer. Not sure the Liberals have clear skies and calm water just yet.

  4. The new opposition leader has the full support of their colleague!

    That was the quote that went to air from the new Opposition leader…

  5. Yep, it’s bad for democracy that the WA Libs are a bunch of no hopers more interested in personal power than anything.

    McGowan and Labor should do the right thing and run dead in a dozen or so seats next time so we can have a decent opposition in the Parliament.

    That might be the only way the Libs can win a decent number of seats.

    Seriously, those of us who lived through the Court, O’Connor, Court (again) and Barnett governments are enjoying Labor’s years in the sun.

  6. Serves those open borders Tories right. They wanted to put WA lives in danger from COVID and now they will have to pay the penalty with four if not 40 years in the wilderness.
    The QLD LNP were also tarred with the same ‘open borders’ brush and were sentenced to another four years in opposition.
    By the way things are looking with the polls in NSW the Tories there will also suffer similar consequences for Berejiklian’s opposition to closed borders.
    What didn’t they get about people not wanting to die from the pandemic.

  7. Seriously, those of us who lived through the Court, O’Connor, Court (again) and Barnett governments are enjoying Labor’s years in the sun.

    I’m not living in WA anymore, but have been enjoying things from afar.

  8. Rossmcg says:
    Tuesday, January 31, 2023 at 7:31 pm

    Yep, it’s bad for democracy that the WA Libs are a bunch of no hopers more interested in personal power than anything.

    McGowan and Labor should do the right thing and run dead in a dozen or so seats next time so we can have a decent opposition in the Parliament.

    That might be the only way the Libs can win a decent number of seats.

    Seriously, those of us who lived through the Court, O’Connor, Court (again) and Barnett governments are enjoying Labor’s years in the sun.
    ____________

    I’m hoping you’re joking with the “ALP should run dead in a dozen seats” thing.

    Over three decades ago I developed the following theorem: Labor always disappoints, but you don’t want the alternative.

    I haven’t quite been able to elevate the theorem to axiom status, due to examples of corruption in ALP ranks. (Although I note a mainstream media tendency to play down/deflect from corruption in Coalition ranks).

    As Catprog suggests, democracy will be promoted when the WA Libs change their policies (along with some internal issues) to properly address the needs of West Australians. Until they make such changes, or Labor become more unhinged than the Libs, democracy is served by the Libs remaining in a Nats-led Opposition!

  9. I’m hoping you’re joking with the “ALP should run dead in a dozen seats” thing.

    The reason Labor shouldn’t do this is that it would make life hard for election analysts, as there will be no meaningful statewide party vote totals.

  10. It’s all very well saying a party shouldn’t run candidates in seats to allow their to be a larger number of opposition members in the legislature but there are other implications for that party.

    It means your voters will have to look at the alternative parties to switch their support to and then at the next election you have to hope they switch back to you.

    And why should they when you’ve denied them their chance to vote for you. You’ve basically told them “we don’t care about you and don’t want to represent you”.

    You may need those votes in a subsequent election whether it’s federal, state or the local council and it might not be that easy to get them back.

  11. Chrisc

    It was a bloody joke
    Aimed slightly perhaps at those concerned people who think a big Labor majority is bad for democracy.
    The big Labor majority is not Labor’s fault.
    The other mob are unelectable.
    And long may they continue to be so

  12. “Mettam … announcing that Goiran, a religious conservative with an extensive network of support in the party’s southern Perth branches, would be excluded from the shadow ministry”

    One small step.

    Cue outrage from the Murdochracy.

  13. William, this extends beyond the WA situation, but I’ve got the general impression that LNP 2PP votes across the states are roughly inversely related to Murdoch media penetration in each jurisdiction. Could you check this out?

    There would be judgement calls in measuring Murdoch penetrated, but you probably know someone who could come up with an impartial and reasonable methodology. If this hypothesis is sound, it would show up across time as well as across states.

    Perhaps someone’s already done this analysis. If so, it doesn’t seem to have been widely publicised.

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