We continue to await the return of Newspoll for the year, which I imagine might be forthcoming ahead of the return of parliament next week. With Essential Research having an off week in the fortnightly cycle, this leaves me with nothing to report on the poll front. Two bits of electoral news worth noting are that the Liberals won the supplementary election for the Victorian state seat of Narracan as expected on Saturday, confirming lower house numbers of 56 for Labor, 19 for the Liberals, nine for the Nationals and four for the Greens; and that Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles has announced that the by-election for the seat of Arafura, following the death of Labor member Lawrence Costa on December 17, will be held on March 18. With that, over to you.
Upnorth
It can’t hurt right, unless an evil version of you has programed it, or even your wife.
Upnorth says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:25 pm
So boys and girls. After 10 days in Mongolia and not following the news (or PB) can I ask, have The Greens got a position yet on The Voice?
——————————————————————————————-
Sounds like a great trip, welcome back.
Is PRETZEL a position?
“Like dude… read the room.”
I think dude you mean this room, and I’m trying very hard NOT to read this room on the voice.
Joyce is a minion of Rinehart. He is one of many who are harnessed to pursue Rinehart’s lust for money and power. Plimer is another of her minions. How many of QLD’s LNP are likewise compromised is a matter of conjecture.
Why Thorpe has aligned herself with Joyce and Rinehart is perhaps a mystery or not. Innocent explanations could be look-at-me or plain stupidity – whatever the way, it is already damaging to the Yes case.
As for VE, I guess it is probably not look-at-me.
“Player One says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:27 pm
…The Polletariat is obsessed with the Green position on the Voice, because they know their own Labor supporters are more ambivalent about it and they don’t like that being pointed out.”
We Social Democrats and Yes-voters are very concerned about the Greens politicians’ position on the Voice because:
a) Going to a referendum must first be supported by the Senate before the People are called to vote. Without the support of the Green Senators, it’s unlikely that we will ever have a referendum.
b) Most Greens voters support the Voice.
c) Voting Yes is the progressive way to go.
d) This referendum is simple and focused, that’s why it’s very likely to be successful. Thorpe’s waffling and Bandt’s navel-gazing are unnecessarily confusing people. Confusion favours the No option. A win for the No option is a win for Dutton and the racists.
e) If No wins, it’s over, there won’t be any other referendum and the Uluru statement will be confined to the dustbin of history for decades to come.
f) If the People say NO, no politician will try to sneak the YES option through Parliament against the will of the People!
So, stop the crap and if you are a true Progressive, vote YES to the Voice!… Learn from the many Liberals with a conscience who are also going to vote YES.
I would consult a local fortune cookie vendor.
sprocket_ says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 6:56 pm
For those interested in the Ukraine War, and what it is like on the streets. This blogger I follow – actually a U.S. citizen of Asian descent – owns an apartment in Kharkiv.
He decided to go back and see if it was still standing. Worth 30 minutes of your time…
https://youtu.be/71TbmjLp1xo
==========
Sprocket, thanks for that. Like Alpo, the picture is one of a stoic population going about their daily lives without fuss, despite what they suffered up until Kharhkiv’s liberation last autumn, and despite the ongoing battles close by.
I was interested to see that Ukraine manages internet connections in their underground better than London or Athens (or, I may add, Sydney). And that’s in the middle of a horrendous war. What’s our excuse? (I hope Malcolm Turnbull’s ears are burning.)
shellbell says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:38 pm
Tribunal members are obsessed with the Briginshaw standard as if it it has any practical application to what they do when it does not.
_______________________________
It seems to me it is irrelevant anyway. The debt, as the final and authoritative legal advice noted, cannot be raised on averaging alone even if no other external evidence is available. If DHS could not find evidence of income per fortnight, how could a poor income support beneficiary?
Averaging should never have been more than a tool to flag possible overpayments for a comprehensive manual review. But that would not have brought in the dollars!
I think one reason why it took so long for the whole scam to collapse is that ordinary people could not believe that a government department could do something so contrary to common sense without a solid legal basis (and everyone believes the law is inscrutable).
Emperor’s new clothes stuff.
Text From RC document above…
Could PB Lawyers comment please?
It would seem the conclusion offers an opinion on an issue not raised by the text before it.
Surly a debt recovery notice is illegal if the debit isn’t due.. period. It has nothing to do “with (the) law is completely silent on what information is required”?
Comments by the Department of Human Services (DHS) on article in the UNSW
Law Journal Forum titled ‘The New Digital Future for Welfare: Debts without
Legal Proof or Moral Authority?’ by Professor Terry Carney AO
Summary of Professor Carney’s views
In his article, Professor Carney suggests that DHS* use of employment income data matching in the OCI process, and the process of ‘averaging’ in particular, is unlawful.
Professor Carney’s primary arguments are that:
•the averaging of Australian Taxation Office (ATO) income data does not provide DHS with a lawful basis to conclude that the debt is owed;
•DHS has a ‘practical onus’ to prove a debt is owed and to precisely quantify any debt amount;
•because of the Briginshaw principle, the bar for DHS to discharge this
‘practical onus’ is high:
• by adopting the OCI process, the department has transferred this onus to customers and requires them to disprove that there is a debt;
• by applying averaged incomes in its decisions, and maintaining such decisions at Authorised Review Officer (ARO) and Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT) review, DHS does not meet the accepted requirements of administrative decision making at the primary level, or comply with the Commonwealth’s model litigant obligations at ARO or AT review;
DHS disagrees with Professor Carney’s analysis, which is both confused and misconceived. DHS believes that Professor Carney:
misunderstands many aspects of DHS’ OCI process, including the limited the raft of safeguards in place for, and procedural fairness afforded to, customers;
•has confused and conflated evidential burdens of proof which apply in court settings with matters relevant to the making of administrative decisions; and
• asserts that DHS has specific legal obligations and evidential burdens in relation to raising debts which do not in fact exist.
Legal framework governing debts under the social law
Under the social security law, a debt to the Commonwealth arises at the time a customer receives an amount to which they are not entitled – see section 1223 of the Social Security Act 1991. Whether or not a person was entitled to an amount is a question of fact, which is determined on the best evidence available at the time.
The social security law is completely silent on what information is required for a debt to be raised.
Sceptic @7.33 pm
Thanks for that. Had to go out at about 4.30 pm and missed remainder of today’s RC. Was wondering just what you were referring to @5.34 pm. Good grief.
Trouble at t’ Liberal Party Mill?
More on the car-bombing in Russian-occupied Enerhodar:
“ Dmitri Orlov, Ukraine’s mayor of the city, also posted to Telegram about the incident. He reported that the victim was a former Ukrainian policeman who had defected to work for the occupying Russian authorities. Zaporizhzhia is one of the regions of Ukraine which the Russian Federation has claimed to annex.
In his message, Orlov implied that the policemen had been targeted because of criminal and corrupt activities among the occupiers, writing:
Since the beginning of March last year and until now, Enerhodar has been a city where the occupiers have been active in criminal activities: they torture and capture people, rob the city’s residents and entire businesses. But they put in their pockets a part of what they receive from the Russian Federation to provide for their needs. Living Rashists do not need … witnesses. Therefore, they will continue to carry out similar “cleanings”. And the first one has already left.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/03/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-pushes-for-10th-sanctions-package-from-eu-leaders-meeting-in-kyiv
Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians are indiscriminate. Ukraine’s attacks are very targeted, whether at Russian military or Ukrainian collaborators.
“citizen says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 8:10 pm
Trouble at t’ Liberal Party Mill?
‘LNP is being hijacked by young inner-city Liberals’
Experienced federal Liberals should be looking over their shoulders. If you listen to the chatter, the LNP’s next generation has them in their sights.
By MICHAEL MCKENNA, LYDIA LYNCH, SARAH ELKS (Oz headline)”
Gees, and here I was thinking that the Liberals were being highjacked by old, crappy religious nuts.
So, it’s the inner-city spoiled young Libs vs the old-obtuse religious nuts…. From the previous Liberal Civil War: Conservatives vs Moderates, we are now shifting to the Generational Civil War…
I bet that some smartarse in the Liberal party has already invested in the popcorn industry….
This may be of interest to the Sydney crowd.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2G_bLEGwmY&ab_channel=TheB1M
The concern with the inflationary cycle is supply side
Accentuated in Australia by a population of a mere 25 million versus the market size of Europe and other Regions
And the logistics costs – where transport costs are in instances exceeding the product cost
Whilst the impact of the Pandemic has seen sourcing shifting to the likes of Vietnam, the problem is component supply from China
So if you are a garment supplier to the Australian market and now sourcing Vietnamese manufacture (and dye houses), the fabric is Chinese – and the competition for fabric from other Regions such as Europe impinges
Before you factor in the logistics costs
And the impact on human resource of the Pandemic in China and other Nations now in the supply chain – because workers are needed
If they are ill or their aged parents are ill they are not at work
We live in a different World
And being the size we are and our geographic location do not assist
We are last on the priority list
Hence the wait times we are experiencing – and the cost increases
And the inflationary pressures
Business is always an exacting mistress needing to be controlled not it controlling and it has become that much more difficult
Interesting is that when issuing a Notice of Demand, the bank accounts were stopped because the amount was specified in the Notice of Demand
Accepting even $1- into the account invalidated the Notice of Demand
Interest and Charges were included in the Notice of Demand
The Notice of Demand led to appointment
“Averaging should never have been more than a tool to flag possible overpayments for a comprehensive manual review. But that would not have brought in the dollars!”
Yeah when you are doing a compliance review you can use whatever funky maths analysis or projections you want, you just have to test / prove any speculation with actual facts.
There is one exception and that is where a total is known and the fact matrix is such that averaging will because of other known facts produce the least onerous outcome. Eg you know a single amount of income was earned over a specific period was not declared and averaging over that period provides an outcome that cannot be worse than the actual payment data would give.
I also found it incomprehensible that people were asked to prove things they had already proved in the past, that is just absurd even if you agree the onus should be on them and that retrospectively doing it is ok (I think both those elements are unacceptable in their own right but clearly others don’t.)
Alpo says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 8:17 pm
“citizen says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 8:10 pm
Trouble at t’ Liberal Party Mill?
‘LNP is being hijacked by young inner-city Liberals’
Experienced federal Liberals should be looking over their shoulders. If you listen to the chatter, the LNP’s next generation has them in their sights.
By MICHAEL MCKENNA, LYDIA LYNCH, SARAH ELKS (Oz headline)”
Gees, and here I was thinking that the Liberals were being highjacked by old, crappy religious nuts.
So, it’s the inner-city spoiled young Libs vs the old-obtuse religious nuts…. From the previous Liberal Civil War: Conservatives vs Moderates, we are now shifting to the Generational Civil War…
I bet that some smartarse in the Liberal party has already invested in the popcorn industry….
____________
Would it be “young, inner-city, WOKE Liberals” who are hijacking the LNP?
“Russian attacks were reported in Donetsk, Kherson, Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Luhansk oblasts in the east, south, and north of Ukraine. According to local authorities, six people were killed, and 19 were wounded in the past 24 hours.”
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russian-attacks-across-9-ukrainian-oblasts-kill-6-injure-19-over-past-24-hours
Each and every day of this invasion, there are Russian commanders, gunners, missile operators and targeters planning and executing the murder of more Ukrainian civilians, and the destruction of homes, schools, hospitals, playgrounds, workplaces, businesses and farms.
😡
Mostly Interested says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:46 pm
Upnorth
It can’t hurt right, unless an evil version of you has programed it, or even your wife.
Cronus says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:47 pm
Upnorth says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:25 pm
So boys and girls. After 10 days in Mongolia and not following the news (or PB) can I ask, have The Greens got a position yet on The Voice?
——————————————————————————————-
Sounds like a great trip, welcome back.
Is PRETZEL a position?
中华人民共和国
I could Google it but ChatGPT sounds more interesting.
Thanks Cronus. Always good to be at the place you call home. Great to see PB humming along.
The UK continues to lead most of its NATO allies (Poland/Finland/Baltics excepted) in understanding the dual needs for Ukraine: actual weaponry; and hopeful messaging about that, both to hearten Ukraine’s resistance and to dishearten Russia’s morale:
“Rishi Sunak, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, has refused to rule out the supply of combat aircraft to Ukraine, even though he has stated that training to operate them could take months, if not years.
Source: Rishi Sunak on air with TalkTV, reported by European Pravda, referring to PA
Details: While answering a question about whether he excludes the possibility of sending aircraft, the prime minister replied: “No, we are always in a dialogue with Ukrainian friends about what the right way to support them is.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/3/7387726/
The US and Germany could each take a page out of the UK’s book.
The Age 03/02
I want to be really frank with Australians and with people working in the health sector, I know that this is not going to fix things in and of itself. I know this is not a single budget challenge. I know there will be more to do,” Butler said.
_____________________
Unbelievable. Where was this frankness before the election you dickhead. It’s all very underwhelming.
Same old. same old.
Germany may have been late on sending Ukraine Leopard 2 MBT’s, but it seems to be trying hard to make up for it now:
“The German government plans to approve the transfer of dozens of repaired Leopard 1 tanks directly from the manufacturer’s warehouses to Ukraine.
Source: European Pravda, referring to ntv, citing government sources; Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper
According to government sources, official permission has not yet been granted.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/3/7387734/
I don’t think you need to be an Einstein to realise that demanding money from people without any basis of proof that they actually owe it to you has got to be illegal.
But I thought Ukraine was winning the border War and Russia was on its knees noting the numbers of Russian forces killed in action (according to Ukrainian sources)
“Could PB Lawyers comment please?”
It is an Act I’ve never opened, but if the author is wrong and the Dept is right, Albo should rush thru amending legislation that the author would be correct.
The ability to raise debts against the poorest Australians should be subject to the highest standards and the onus should be on the Parliament to legislate systems that are clear and transparent and easy for say the homeless to navigate and the onus should definitely be on the department to correctly administer the law at that point of time with Dept errors being something the Dept just has to live with.
Re robodebt: income averaging appears to have been totally fine for more than three decades before the Federal Court ruled it wasn’t.
It would appear that lawyers working for the departments of Social Security and Human Services had an inkling in advance that the Federal Court might rule against income averaging and had advised accordingly.
The decision to persist with the robodebt strategy in the face of that advice looks pretty bad.
But the public servants were attempting to recover monies received by people who had failed to report their changed circumstances to Centrelink: in itself, a reasonable goal. Robodebt was arguably an over the top way of doing this, but in itself there was nothing wrong with the objective. Surely nobody wants a system which rewards people for tardiness or dishonesty.
It will be interesting to see what sort of long-term solution to the problem is developed by the bureaucrats. One possible way to go is to impose heavy fines on people who fail to alert Centrelink to changed circumstances. Or, alternatively, they could be charged the full cost of calculating their debt. Either of these approaches would seem reasonable to me. I suspect not everyone will agree with me, but I consider maintaining the integrity of the system to be a priority.
“Unbelievable. Where was this frankness before the election you dickhead. It’s all very underwhelming.
Same old. same old.”
That is an absurdly unreasonable comment. The damage deliberately inflicted by the LNP over the Abbott Turnbull and Morrison years was always going to take many years to fix and everyone in the Country knew that before the election.
Given the previous Govt sent out unlawful debt notices to the poorest Australians for years, contrasted with the absurd and unreasonable standard you’d seek to apply to Labor. It is sky news stuff. Semi fascist propaganda.
For the lols I asked:
What is the Australian Greens position on the Voice referendum?
ChatGPT
I am not aware of the Australian Greens having a specific position on the Voice referendum. However, The Australian Greens are known to be a progressive political party that generally supports policies that prioritize environmental protection, social justice, and human rights.
WeWantPaul: “The ability to raise debts against the poorest Australians should be subject to the highest standards and the onus should be on the Parliament to legislate systems that are clear and transparent and easy for say the homeless to navigate and the onus should definitely be on the department to correctly administer the law at that point of time with Dept errors being something the Dept just has to live with.”
Further to my point above: my understanding is that the people affected by robodebt were, in general, not the “poorest Australians”, but people who had been on welfare payments whose circumstances had changed (ie, gotten a job or somehow come into some money) but who had not contacted Centrelink to let them know about this.
Happy to stand corrected if I’m wrong about this.
Here we go again @ Friday, February 3, 2023 at 8:44 pm:
“But I thought Ukraine was winning the border War and Russia was on its knees noting the numbers of Russian forces killed in action (according to Ukrainian sources)”
===============
HWGA, no offence intended here, but if you think that, you seem to have not been keeping up with frontline and strategic developments in Russia’s invasion since late November last year.
Stunning Ukrainian successes on the counteroffensive in Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts in Sep-Oct have given way to a muddy stalemate, with masses of raw Russian infantry being thrown at the line in waves which have threatened to overwhelm Ukraine’s capacity to hold it, but which have nevertheless cost Russia thousands of KIA.
Russia has achieved a numerical advantage over Ukraine by the simple but brutal expedient of not valuing the survival of their infantry troops. By contrast, Ukraine has switched to a defensive posture, precisely to preserve troops and ammo for a coming counteroffensive, once modern heavy NATO weapons arrive in sufficient quantities.
It remains to be seen which approach will prevail this year. In the meantime, it is a very tense time for those of us who are desperate for Ukraine to be cleared of Russian occupiers once and for all.
” Robodebt was arguably an over the top way of doing this, but in itself there was nothing wrong with the objective. Surely nobody wants a system which rewards people for tardiness or dishonesty.”
The dishonesty was way less than 1%, I can’t remember the figure Trudge knew, but I think it was 0.1%.
Immaterial.
Robodebt was never an appropriate reaction to such a small problem.
As for the administrative difficulties and errors, in large they result from a deliberately cruel system, designed in large part on the false belief of many going back to Reagan’s welfare queen lie, that the problem that is actually immaterial is massive.
The onus on implementing systems that are clear and easy to navigate clearly should be on the Parliament and the Dept not on the poorest and most vulnerable Australians.
We need both brains and heart in this area and based almost entirely on an entirely false belief we have neither in ours.
mb
Except, in the majority of cases, the recipients had been perfectly honest and made all the declarations they were required to do….but were punished anyway.
Vladimir Putin is giving Rasputin a run for his money. 😡
Today he’s equated Germany and Ukraine as Nazis in arms, simply because Germany has agreed to supply tanks to Ukraine. The flaccid dictator even said that the tanks will be marked with the German Iron Cross.
The man deserves to get his arse kicked from Moscow to hell and back.
The Age 03/02
Wong will no doubt blame a mischievous right-wing media for derailing her week but ultimately the important message she brought about engagement in the Indo-Pacific was not heard because of a clumsy and ill-explained swipe. Britain, which after post-Brexit now desperately wants to restore its standing around the globe again, should have been a captive audience for a fascinating and trailblazing woman. It was, ultimately, a missed opportunity.
_____________________
Didn’t seem to go down as well as C@t thought it did.
Wong still has a lot to learn. Her inexperience showed on this occasion.
‘… people who had been on welfare payments whose circumstances had changed (ie, gotten a job or somehow come into some money) but who had not contacted Centrelink to let them know about this.’
Incorrect. That was the way the government framed it, but it wasn’t the truth.
Members of the previous Coalition government weren’t possessed of heart.
They did Robodebt for the income to the Budget bottom line and for shits and giggles to warm the cockles of their cold, dark souls.
TaylorMade,
Where did you read that? The Spectator?
I haven’t seen it reported anywhere else. Do enlighten us to your source,per favor.
Surely nobody wants a system which rewards people for tardiness or dishonesty.
___________________________________________________________
This mob wants the most stringent regulations, oversite and compliance and the most powerful enforcement possible for anyone with money and rightly so, because when it comes to the wealthy they understand human nature. But when it it the poor and downtrodden nah they are perfect people without fault. Where does that come from? I understand compassion but why go the full loon why lose any logic.
zoomster: “Except, in the majority of cases, the recipients had been perfectly honest and made all the declarations they were required to do….but were punished anyway.”
There were certainly some such cases: are you sure it was a majority? That’s not my understanding.
OopNorth,
Good to see you back on deck! May approaches fast. 😀
Wow, it’s like old home week! First Asha, then UpNorth and now meher baba!
‘Sceptic says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:21 pm
Alpo says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:17 pm
What happened with Russia’s hypersonic missiles that were going to win the war for Putin in matter of days?
They never made it past the 3D renderings’
———————————-
Russia is actually quite good at developing high end kit. Fortunately, where they fall down seriously is the ability to mass produce same.
China, OTOH, has developed serious manufacturing capacity.
c@t: “Wow, it’s like old home week! First Asha, then UpNorth and now meher baba!”
Good to talk to you: I hope life is treating you ok.
I’ve been floating around for a few days now. I have been kept away by my unrelentingly difficult personal life, but I’ve recently found the odd opportunity to reappear.
I asked a few days back if you knew what had happened to Beguiled Again. You weren’t around, so I’ll ask you again.
Sceptic,
I have heard that Russia’s hypersonic missiles have been used to attack the electricity infrastructure. As you say, it was supposed to bring Ukraine to its knees. Until it didn’t. It took out the lights and disabled sewerage processing for a while but it just didn’t win the war for Russia.
And, hey Zoomster, good to engage with you too.
I’ve missed you lot.
meher
What happened was that tax records were compared with welfare payments. The income declared on your tax was averaged out and assumed to be your fortnightly income.
Centrelink then looked at the fortnightly figures the person had declared to Centrelink and decided that, if they were greater than had been declared, the recipient had lied and that they owed Centrelink the difference.
It was perfectly possible for someone to have done everything 100% correctly – it made no difference to the way the case was handled.
This is why the court ruled it as illegal. They would not have done so if the process had operated as intended (that is, catching up with people who WERE rorting the system).
Hi meher baba,
Sorry to hear about the life stuff. I hope that it improves. But I know, don’t you worry, that an uneventful life is a luxury few of us ever get.
As far as beguiledagain is concerned, no I don’t know what has happened to him? I wish I did. 🙁
Take care, meher baba, and look after yourself. 🙂
meher
What a nice thing to say!
I hope your complicated life isn’t doing anything more than eating up your time, but I expect it’s more draining than that.
We should all pay homage to Mr Bowe for keeping this blog relentlessly ticking over too. 🙂
I’m going to hear Senator Pat Dodson speak about the Voice tomorrow morning. 🙂