The latest Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald has Labor on 42% (up three since the poll conducted after the budget in late October), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 11% (down two), One Nation on 4% (steady), the United Australia Party on 2% (up one) and independents on 8% (steady). No two-party preferred is provided, but based on preference flows in May this would have Labor’s lead approaching 60-40. The limited state breakdowns provided have it at about 57-43 in New South Wales, 62-38 in Victoria and 56-44 in Queensland.
Anthony Albanese records an approval rating of 60% (up three) with disapproval at 24% (down four), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 28% (down one) and 43% (up two). Albanese leads Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister 54-19, little changed from 53-19 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611. Further results on the poll concerning the parties’ capacity to handle various issues and other aspects of their performance are featured on the Age/Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor page.
Also out this week is the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study survey, both as a summary report and a full dataset for those with the wherewithal to use it. Among many other things, the survey found that Anthony Albanese scored better when rated on a scale from one to ten than any party leader since Kevin Rudd in 2007, whereas Scott Morrison was “the least popular major party leader in the history of the AES”, which goes back to 1987. A decline in partisan attachment going back to 2010 continued apace, with only 30% and 28% now rating themselves as Coalition and Labor partisans respectively. Supporters of the teal independents were largely “tactical Labor and Greens voters”, with only 18% of their voters having defected from the Liberals. The survey also provides further evidence for what already well understood about the Coalition’s problems with women and younger voters.
Note also the post below from Adrian Beaumont about today’s US Senate run-off election in the state of Georgia, and the ongoing coverage of the Victorian election count, where Labor seems set to match its 2018 performance in terms of lower house seats.
Dr John:
Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 9:59 am
[‘you surely jest.
And did you misspell ‘carnal’ and meant camel?’]
My new neighbours are members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. I’ve been converted. No more visits to
S-E Asian hot spots for me. And if I’m not getting a bit on the side, no one else should.
The latest info from Kyiv media on the latest drone strike into Russia, this time in Kursk:
https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukrainian-drone-strikes-russian-oil-depot.html
“Ukrainian Drone Strikes Russian Oil Depot
By Kyiv Post. Published Dec. 6 at 5:47 pm
Earlier today, an allegedly Ukrainian drone struck a Russian oil depot located on a military base about 93 miles or 150 kilometers inside of Russia. The Dec. 6 strike, which led to a massive blast caught on tape, comes the day after two Russian military bases, in Ryazan and Saratov, were struck by drones.
According to Russian sources, the earlier two strikes on Monday, Dec. 5, led to the deaths of three Russian soldiers at the bases used for hosting Russian strategic bombers. Russian authorities indicated that the attacks had been executed by Soviet-vintage drones, known to have far less technical capacity in comparison to modern Western drones that have become a staple of this war.
Similar to the attack on the 11-mile Kerch Bridge that connects Crimea to Russia, Kyiv did not take credit for this strike inside Russia but did openly celebrate its success.
Strikes into Russian territory have remained a contentious point in Kyiv’s relations with its American partners who fear that such attacks could lead to an escalation of the war which has been waged for nearly ten months.
Ukrainian leaders have stated that not allowing strikes within Russia is de facto tying Kyiv’s hands and making the prevention of future missile attacks by Moscow impossible. The attacks carried out on Tuesday using Soviet Stizh drones introduced in the 1970s, rather than Western technologies, will be a bell-weather for how the U.S. responds to such operations.
The governor of the Kursk Region, Roman Starovoyt, stated via a Telegram post that the explosion was only in the vicinity of the military base, having neither spread nor killed any Russians present.”
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Interesting take: these strikes are being used as a “trial balloon” using obsolete technology, to assess how far the West can/should/will allow Ukraine’s hands to be untied in their effort to fend off Russian missile strikes. Everyone in the world agrees how destructive these Russian strikes are to Ukrainians’ capacity to even live in their own country – now time to see if we have the guts to let Ukrainians defend themselves against them.
Billy Kaplan says:
Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 7:44 am
Cronus
I would extend your point to progressives. It’s the policies they are after. Just look at the attack on the carbon price. A capitalist progressive solution to an environmental problem.
It didn’t matter that the Liberals went real direct action of the state. Now they wonder why voters are cheering public ownership of utilities again.
It’s been an excruciating decade but that in the long term really does seem to have been an own goal.
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Agreed, and of course it’s a low bar for the new government to jump over and a long way to go but at least we now have more than a glimmer of hope. I think the things that have changed in Australian society are no longer things (values and attitudes) that the Coalition can easily overturn and certainly not simply through situations such as tough economic times that the Coalition has relied upon to gain government.
I sense our population has outgrown the limited Coalition adversarial intellect and is able to see what the Coalition can only deny. Demographics are important but issues such as climate change are increasingly being understood in existential terms, even outside difficult demographic cohorts.
Now that an understanding climate change and its implications have become mainstream, it’s unlikely that voters will return to fossil fuel thinking. This means that the ageing and dying Coalition voter base and it’s minority position will become a minority party while Progressives, differences notwithstanding, agree, act and grow based on the fundamentals.
“No two-party preferred is provided, but based on preference flows in May this would have Labor’s lead approaching 60-40. The limited state breakdowns provided have it at about 57-43 in New South Wales, 62-38 in Victoria and 56-44 in Queensland.
Anthony Albanese records an approval rating of 60% (up three) with disapproval at 24% (down four), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 28% (down one) and 43% (up two). ”
Merry Xmas Albo and ALP team!
… Oh, and to the usual suspects in the mainstream media: Keep trying, one day you may find a way to scratch Albo’s tungsten armour…. 🙂
poroti @ #86 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 9:52 am
Pretty much the same thing.
sprocket_says:
Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 9:45 am
I don’t know if this is the case, but it seems to be offering an alternative to “honor” violence by the family.
From the Kyiv Independent, an interview with “Fredrik Wesslau … a Swedish diplomat completing his posting as Deputy Head of the Mission at the EUAM after 4.5 years working in Ukraine.” I’ve clipped one Q&A from it here:
https://kyivindependent.com/national/departing-eu-diplomat-civilian-casualties-in-ukraine-may-be-3-times-higher-than-un-estimates
“The Kyiv Independent: Before we do find out more and we go through all these mass graves and all the testimonies, do we already know that there could be lots of situations of mass executions, similar to what we saw in Bucha?
Fredrik Wesslau: These investigations are ongoing, but I think that the scale of the report would just be enormous. It’s just a tragedy on a different level. People talk about these UN figures, estimates for civilian casualties, of course, the actual figure is much, much higher, probably three times as much. In the end, it becomes a bit problematic referring to these official figures.”
===========================================================
Here’s the latest UN estimate I could quickly find: (November 27, 2022):
Total:
Killed: 6,655
Injured: 10,368
Children:
Killed: 419
Injured: 769
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293492/ukraine-war-casualties/#:~:text=Number%20of%20civilian%20casualties%20during%20the%20war%20in%20Ukraine%202022&text=The%20Office%20of%20the%20United,Of%20them%2C%20419%20were%20children.
“A decline in partisan attachment going back to 2010 continued apace, with only 30% and 28% now rating themselves as Coalition and Labor partisans respectively.”
There may be a decline, but at a combined 58%, the so-called “duopoly” is still in control….
In spite of all the crap (some real, some fictitious), people still see in the major parties a solid organisation representing their particular views, ideals and interests. The trick is to support the one with the positive views, constructive ideals and interests that favour the majority of Australians… In my opinion, that’s the ALP.
When I first saw her at Senate estimates I started hoping I’d see a time when she was called to account.
___________
Rossmcg
We are of like mind. She came across as by no means a nice person in her estimates appearances.
Time now to savour an excoriation.
frednk @ #92 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 10:04 am
How will Indonesia approach De Facto Marriage? I had my surname and my partner had his surname but we functioned as a ‘married’ couple for 30 years. Most certainly having sex and producing children, like married couples.
BK @ #109 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 10:35 am
It’s petty, yes I know, but I can’t stand her Elizabeth the First hairstyle! 😆
Another interesting point by Weslau in https://kyivindependent.com/national/departing-eu-diplomat-civilian-casualties-in-ukraine-may-be-3-times-higher-than-un-estimates:
“The Kyiv Independent: What new trends and tendencies did you see in your work? What, for example, have you noticed in the Kherson Oblast compared to Kharkiv Oblast or other areas that weren’t occupied for so long?
Fredrik Wesslau: A really horrifying aspect is how the Russian forces and occupation authorities have sort of learnt from the past few months. In Kherson what we’ve seen is that a lot of the evidence of war crimes has been taken away or booby trapped – there have even been cases of dead Russian soldiers who have been booby trapped by their colleagues. I think another important aspect as well is how Ukrainian authorities and especially law enforcement agencies deal with these newly liberated areas because there are vast challenges. There’s everything from the physical destruction of homes and critical infrastructure to the war crimes, and cases of collusion as well. How do you deal with that in a way which doesn’t create further tensions in society? I think there’s a big difference between the person who was basically a Russian agent who then worked in the local council under Russian control and the babushka who might have been making borshch for four Russian soldiers.”
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Key takeaways:
1. The longer it takes to expel the Russians, the better the Russians cover their tracks, so the harder it will be to achieve justice against perpetrators – or to accurately catalogue the entire scale of the horror created and directed by Vladimir Putin and his regime;
2. The longer it takes to expel the Russians, the muddier the waters will become in sorting out actual collaboration from frightened compliance with new masters, so the harder it will be for Ukrainians to live peaceably alongside each other going forward.
We MUST strive to inflict total defeat upon Russia ASAP.
“Москва повинна бути зруйнована.”
Interest rates are a policy variable – they are not immutable. The national government can and should stop issuing bonds, allow its deficit spending to accumulate as reserve balances, pay zero interest on reserve balances, and leave the official interest rate at zero permanently. Fiscal policy and regulatory policy are the means by which the national government can influence the macroeconomy with a high degree of impact and precision. Monetary policy is a weak policy instrument. At best it does nothing, at worst it causes recessions. Dropping monetary policy from the policy toolkit is five decades overdue. Monetary policy became unnecessary from the moment the US Government removed the gold standard and allowed its currency’s value to float in foreign exchange markets.
The real discount rate should be positive in all circumstances other than deep liquidity crises. So the RBA has to normalise the cash rate. If the real discount rate is negative then non-cash alternatives to cash – equities, land, collectibles – will spiral ever upwards in price. They will become domains for speculation; for the mis allocation of capital.
A negative discount rate also encourages households to consume rather than save, so savings rates will fall and borrowing will increase. Eventually this threatens economic and financial stability, and the prosperity of households and workers. One of the symptoms of instability is persistent inflation.
The RBA have not increased rates to anything like the levels that would lead to a recession. But they will achieve a real discount rate that is positive. This is a very good thing, not least for anyone hoping to afford to buy land/housing anytime in the next few years.
Macarthur
Sadly I am not surprised by that reprot on Ukrainian civilian deaths being much higher than reported.
My Ukrainian Australian friends tell me that Ukraine authorities, by checking how many civilians have been accounted for as either evacuated or still alive in Mariupol, they think there are at least 5000 Ukrainian civilians missing, presumed dead, in that city alone.
This quote from John Lord’s AIMN piece resonates strongly.
Dietrich Bonhoeffer (a vocal critic of Nazism) said this of stupidity:
“Against stupidity we have no defence. Neither protests nor force can touch it. Reasoning is of no use. Facts that contradict personal prejudices can simply be disbelieved. Indeed, the fool can counter by criticizing them, and if they are undeniable, they can just be pushed aside as trivial exceptions. So the fool, as distinct from the scoundrel, is completely self-satisfied. In fact, they can easily become dangerous, as it does not take much to make them aggressive. For that reason, greater caution is called for than with a malicious one. Never again will we try to persuade the stupid person with reasons, for it is senseless and dangerous.”
Note how belief in sky fairies, or neo-liberal economics, or the fairness and ‘justice’ of the adversarial court system, or denial of climate change, all strongly equate to self-reinforcing stupidity. Just watch!
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 10:35 am
That would be classed cohabitation, so you’d be put away for 6 months.
Also changing your name when you marry is not part of any Asian culture that I’m aware of.
A fascinating discussion. Also interesting to see a photo of the new Ukrainian attack drone:
https://youtu.be/Xj6Rio9IsLQ
Nicholas says:
Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 10:43 am
Interest rates are a policy variable – they are not immutable. The national government can and should stop issuing bonds, allow its deficit spending to accumulate as reserve balances, pay zero interest on reserve balances, and leave the official interest rate at zero permanently.
Are you saying that interest rates should be exclusively set in the market? That’s laissez-faire policy taken to its limit. The main purpose of monetary policy is to regulate the creation of credit (regulate the production of financial assets) by the banking sector. Banks have every reason to try to expand their assets whenever they can. Are you saying there is no point in using State powers to limit the avarice of banks?
Markets need to be regulated. Financial markets, being the largest of all, really need to regulated for the sake of the real economy if nothing else.
Uuuummm, Dietrich Bonhoeffer believed in “sky fairies”
The Revisionist says:
Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 10:58 am
Uuuummm, Dietrich Bonhoeffer believed in “sky fairies”
________
That’s true. 🙂
Yabba is not as smart as Yabba thinks he is.
The Ombudsman is now “willing to assist” the royal commission and will appear in the next hearing block.
Oliver Sutton says:
Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 8:23 am
Paul Kelly, per Cronus:
“ The environment favoured Labor 51-19 per cent and global warming favoured Labor 50-18 per cent.”
… and 30 per cent of respondents to the Australian Election Survey saw no difference between Labor and the Coalition on the environment and global warming.
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The 30% figure is an odd statistic to my mind. I certainly understand the 12% of Greens saying that but that leaves 18% of either Labor (which I doubt) or Coalition voters thinking there’s no difference. The concept that this proportion are unable to distinguish between the environmental/global warming policies of Labor and the Coalition is very difficult to explain except for ignorance.
nath @ #121 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 11:00 am
You’ve always got to take the arsehat angle, don’t you, nath? 😐
Everyone was being constructive and thoughtful (except for your partner in slime, Lars, early this morning), and then you show up. 🙄
This is an interesting twist from Axios wrt today’s Georgia Senate Run Off:
A kind of hybrid Preferential Voting system.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/06/us/elections/results-georgia-us-senate-runoff.html
I don’t know if this link is open or behind the firewall. Still looking. But the counting has started in Georgia. Warner currently leads Walker by aprox 60 to 40. Updating every few seconds. Walker gaining.
C@tmomma says:
Everyone was being constructive and thoughtful (except for your partner in slime, Lars, early this morning), and then you show up.
_____________
Why don’t you do something constructive and write to your local ALP member and ask him to help stop work for dole which Labor is keen on continuing, despite bagging it for years.
In Opposition, Labor found work for the dole to be a ‘dud’ and ‘dangerous’. Now they are continuing with it:
Ed Husic, launched a stinging attack on the program in Parliament during Thursday’s adjournment debate, calling the scheme, costing $156 million this year, a “dud” from which seven out of 10 compulsory participants, failed to find stable work.
Mr Husic cited an Ernst and Young audit which found “36 per cent of Work for the Dole worksites don’t meet departmental safety expectations”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-walk-from-the-dole-program-20180303-p4z2os.html
nath @ #127 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 11:22 am
How do you know I haven’t done so?
Nevertheless, if you were capable of making a thoughtful and considered comment, you would acknowledge that the federal government have launched an Inquiry into it already.
I’m also just about to undertake a leadership training course and volunteer for a social justice initiative. What are you actually doing for the betterment of our society, other than taking potshots at women on this blog?
Cronus @ #123 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 11:16 am
I can’t open the actual article to sight the wording of the question and the alternatives offered (perhaps someone could post these details?) and I also don’t claim this would account for all of this group (or even the bulk of it) – but some of this group might be those who have looked beyond the announcements to the details and found the policies of both major parties to be inadequate.
A lot of Teal voters would fall into this category. And as the climate catastrophe worsens (which it will) there will be more such.
Well you certainly don’t need to undertake a leadership course. You have demonstrated impressive leadership of the stooges for many years.
I see nath is doing a Liberal yeoman’s work by whining about something that the federal government haven’t changed yet to his satisfaction.
Even though an Inquiry has been launched by the government into this very area.
And also considering that the Albanese Labor federal government have only been in power for 6 months.
So I will issue this warning. nath has picked his subject for the day to attempt to distract us from discussing good things about Labor’s first 6 months in office and other matters. Don’t fall for his ploy. There’s no point in wasting time discussing Work for the Dole until the inquiry comes out with its recommendations.
nath @ #131 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 11:36 am
Oh, I’m cut to the core, nath. 😆
Now, fyi, I’m just going to ignore you, leader of the PB Oxygen Thieves, and who doesn’t have the balls to apologise to a woman.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/06/us/elections/results-georgia-us-senate-runoff.html
32% of votes counted
Warnock 56% – 44% Walker
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/12/06/us-georgia-senate-runoff-election-live/
Oops. I forgot the other thread. Apologies for my earlier posts.
Does anyone know why the RC livestream is not showing any documents at the moment? Is it a techinical or legal issue?
C@tmomma says:
So I will issue this warning. nath has picked his subject for the day to attempt to distract us from discussing good things about Labor’s first 6 months in office and other matters. Don’t fall for his ploy. There’s no point in wasting time discussing Work for the Dole until the inquiry comes out with its recommendations.
___
The inquiry wont be reporting until the end of 2023. So early 2024 for a decision at the earliest.
Campbell hates being asked questions she thinks she has already answered.
The Revisionist @ #120 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 10:58 am
So?
B in C:
Last six words perhaps not necessary?
So the ALP were in opposition for 9 years but need an inquiry.
Nice opportunity to give a mate a high paying job.
Bennelong Lurker @ #140 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 8:59 am
Just highlighting an extra level of dislike. 😆
Barney:
Army training in dealing with answering under interrogation being drawn upon?
Mexicanbeemer @ #141 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 9:01 am
What a shocking concept that Labor might want evidence to support a restructure.
BK says:
Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 9:46 am
According to the witness list, Kathryn Campbell is back in front of the royal commission today. Mr Greggery, now armed with a lot more information, should have a field day!
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Please keep up the daily Robodebt commentary BK, I’m looking forward to it.
Barney
What a shocking concept that Labor might want evidence to support a restructure.
———————-
9 years is a long time to get all the evidence needed.
Mexicanbeemer @ #146 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 9:07 am
Oppositions don’t have access to the Departments.
That’s why we are having the Robodebt RC now.
Barney
Oppositions don’t have access to the Departments.
That’s why we are having the Robodebt RC now.
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They have enough access to departments to know what services they are providing and they can do their own research.
Re Naths ( disgusting , I think) comments about Bonhoeffer – sure , he believed in angels and a God , but unlike the liers,hypocrites and reactionary so- called ( sorry, self – labelled) Christians we encounter these days , Bonhoeffer lived a life many Christians try to live. He died in a concentration camp for those beliefs and actions.
You are diminished by your comment , Nath.
Steve777 says:
Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 9:54 am
Re Snappy Tom @8:45.
” I feel compelled, however, to offer this wet blanket: the Coalition and the meeja will jump on any mis-step by Labor.
Even minor problems in govt will be blown out of all proportion into a manufactured “crisis” which will “test” Albo’s leadership.”
I’m pretty sure that’s the plan – Dutton following the Abbott playbook. Unrelenting negativity. No quarter, certainly no bipartisanship. Demonise opponents and their policies. Work closely with Newscorp and favoured “journalists” to Jump on any mis-steps or scandals, even manufacture them if need be. I content that the whole ‘pink batts’ saga was an example of the latter. And there never was a “carbon tax”.
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It’ll be interesting to see whether or not this age old Coalition/msm modus operandi is still relevant or successful. It hasn’t proven terribly fruitful lately from my observations, it’s the only trick they have left but I suspect its effectiveness is diminishing.