Resolve Strategic poll and Australian Election Study (open thread)

Another poll finds the Albanese government ending the year in as strong a position as ever, plus the release of data from the Australian National University’s regular post-election survey.

The latest Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald has Labor on 42% (up three since the poll conducted after the budget in late October), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 11% (down two), One Nation on 4% (steady), the United Australia Party on 2% (up one) and independents on 8% (steady). No two-party preferred is provided, but based on preference flows in May this would have Labor’s lead approaching 60-40. The limited state breakdowns provided have it at about 57-43 in New South Wales, 62-38 in Victoria and 56-44 in Queensland.

Anthony Albanese records an approval rating of 60% (up three) with disapproval at 24% (down four), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 28% (down one) and 43% (up two). Albanese leads Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister 54-19, little changed from 53-19 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611. Further results on the poll concerning the parties’ capacity to handle various issues and other aspects of their performance are featured on the Age/Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor page.

Also out this week is the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study survey, both as a summary report and a full dataset for those with the wherewithal to use it. Among many other things, the survey found that Anthony Albanese scored better when rated on a scale from one to ten than any party leader since Kevin Rudd in 2007, whereas Scott Morrison was “the least popular major party leader in the history of the AES”, which goes back to 1987. A decline in partisan attachment going back to 2010 continued apace, with only 30% and 28% now rating themselves as Coalition and Labor partisans respectively. Supporters of the teal independents were largely “tactical Labor and Greens voters”, with only 18% of their voters having defected from the Liberals. The survey also provides further evidence for what already well understood about the Coalition’s problems with women and younger voters.

Note also the post below from Adrian Beaumont about today’s US Senate run-off election in the state of Georgia, and the ongoing coverage of the Victorian election count, where Labor seems set to match its 2018 performance in terms of lower house seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,607 comments on “Resolve Strategic poll and Australian Election Study (open thread)”

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  1. @Rocket and andrewmck

    The LNP palaver at the federal and vic elections about picking up seats in the outer suburbs was horsedoodoo from day 1. The way they sold it was, we’re going to lose the teal seats cos those people are too smart and sophisticated so we’ll target the racist homophobic stupid people in the outer burbs. Calling people stupid rarely induces them to vote for you.

    The LNP treated their supporters and their detractors with contempt.

    NSW in 2023 is going to be a fascinating election. Let’s hope we see some genuine polling!

  2. This being a polling blog, some may be interested in these results out of Ukraine, reported in the Kyiv Post

    “According to the poll results, the desire to keep fighting has only grown across Ukraine. In March 2022, 74 percent believed that Ukraine should stay in the war until all its territories are liberated, versus 16 percent who said Ukraine should only fight until the territories that were free prior to Feb. 22 were liberated.

    In the new poll that number has risen to 85 percent, who believe the war should not be over until every inch of Ukraine is free, again; versus just 9 percent who are willing to accept the territory that was lost in 2014.”

    “ A decade ago, in 2012, 27 percent of Ukrainians supported the return of nuclear weapons to Ukraine, with 56 percent opposing such a move.

    According to the new poll, 53 percent support Ukraine rearming itself with nuclear weapons, with 43 percent of those polled disapproving.”

    “ Asked about how to best deter future Russian attacks on Ukraine, 61 percent of those polled bet on Ukraine’s NATO ascension; 50 percent on the nuclear disarmament of Russia; and 34 percent for both Ukraine joining the EU and for guarantees from the West of weapons for Ukraine.”

    “ The poll was conducted on Nov. 20-21, 2022, across all free regions of Ukraine, using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing. The margin of error was > .031 and the confidence interval was 0.95.”

    Question for the statistically savvy here (of which I am not one): can you work backwards from these last-mentioned facts about the poll to deduce the sample size? Also note that the report says nothing at all about the provenance of the poll.

  3. Labor should win in NSW, lots of factors in its favour. But you just have that reservation in the back of your mind. I think it’s because while the Government is old, it hasn’t really entered into the fiasco vortex, having stabilised after Bailaro.

  4. Macarthur ,
    Strategic bombing only work hardens a populace. The winter will be cold for Ukraine and they’ll be fighting fit and strong on the other side of it. It’s was a mistake for Russia to cut off their power.

    For a confidence interval of 95% for the Ukrainian population of 43M, you need a sample of about 10600 people.

    Edit, sorry missed that last margin of error, the sample is probably up around 20K.

  5. ‘Although a politics lecturer from years ago used to say ‘whoever holds Ballarat and Bendigo holds Victoria’. As good a truism as any I think.’

    Wasn’t true under Ballieu.

  6. C@tmomma @ 10.59pm
    The pre-selected candidate for Terrigal may have star quality, but as one who resides at North Avoca, didn’t even know that we had a Labor candidate, yet.
    The total collapse of local newspapers and most of regional Radio @ Television, being relay stations for City based media, has made local campaigning difficult.
    Star or not, I would really appreciate having a non-Tory local member, again.
    My little part of the Central Coast hasn’t had a Labor representative, since 1988, when Brian McGowan, made electoral history by losing two seats at the same election.
    I would like to share your enthusiasm for Terrigal, but based upon the last 34 years – I am resigned to another 4 years of Torydom.

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