The latest Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald has Labor on 42% (up three since the poll conducted after the budget in late October), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 11% (down two), One Nation on 4% (steady), the United Australia Party on 2% (up one) and independents on 8% (steady). No two-party preferred is provided, but based on preference flows in May this would have Labor’s lead approaching 60-40. The limited state breakdowns provided have it at about 57-43 in New South Wales, 62-38 in Victoria and 56-44 in Queensland.
Anthony Albanese records an approval rating of 60% (up three) with disapproval at 24% (down four), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 28% (down one) and 43% (up two). Albanese leads Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister 54-19, little changed from 53-19 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611. Further results on the poll concerning the parties’ capacity to handle various issues and other aspects of their performance are featured on the Age/Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor page.
Also out this week is the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study survey, both as a summary report and a full dataset for those with the wherewithal to use it. Among many other things, the survey found that Anthony Albanese scored better when rated on a scale from one to ten than any party leader since Kevin Rudd in 2007, whereas Scott Morrison was “the least popular major party leader in the history of the AES”, which goes back to 1987. A decline in partisan attachment going back to 2010 continued apace, with only 30% and 28% now rating themselves as Coalition and Labor partisans respectively. Supporters of the teal independents were largely “tactical Labor and Greens voters”, with only 18% of their voters having defected from the Liberals. The survey also provides further evidence for what already well understood about the Coalition’s problems with women and younger voters.
Note also the post below from Adrian Beaumont about today’s US Senate run-off election in the state of Georgia, and the ongoing coverage of the Victorian election count, where Labor seems set to match its 2018 performance in terms of lower house seats.
Pi – what would I do?
I tend to suspect the real culprit in Musk’s turn is his breakup with Grimes. The incels are the gateway to the whole conspiracy nutcase world time and time again on the Internet. He’s clearly a guy who must be the smartest and greatest guy in every room, that personality flaw is prone to going down the “manosphere” rabbit hole when rejected by women.
If the US government has some deprogramming experts they can send at Musk and can be bothered to, they could give it a go, or maybe just get him laid by someone he can fall for, who’s not a paid disposable hanger on he’s banging to demonstrate his power and wealth and how he can sleep with millions of women if he wants to because he’s the Alpha and they are only there to please him.
But seriously, he has profile but so what. Turning Musk back doesn’t get you anything much. What I’d actually do is put the screwa to Google and Facebook to turn off the extremism algorithms, properly ban extremist content, and hope that the tap going off will gradually dissipate the crazy in time.
so looks like louise staley is out of politics not good for liberals butgoergia crosia is upper house leader
From twitter;
Tom Tanuki on Sovereign Citizens
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ea_7jUU489g&feature=youtu.be
This talking point of Dutton’s that the solution to the gas price crisis is more supply is just ridiculous. We all know that if gas companies were just allowed to increase supply, without any other controls being put on them, then they would just sell it overseas to the highest bidder and domestic consumers would still be charged parity pricing.
I hope other people realise this.
”
FalconWAsays:
Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 8:16 pm
Payne’s contention that they were all about fraud is rubbish. Fraud as a crime requires the prosecution to prove beyond reasonable doubt that fraud took place and there was an intention to commit the crime. Robodebt could do nothing to provide proof beyond a reasonable doubt on any of these elements. This was nothing more than a Mafia-style shakedown by a government on its own citizens. Disgraceful!
”
Exactly!
Probably this is the worst offence committed by Australian government on its people without any proof of offence.
Ven @ #2555 Tuesday, December 13th, 2022 – 9:02 pm
I think the worse crime is that Marise Payne showed zero care and concern or contrition today for what she helped create. She had the opportunity today to do it and she didn’t.
laughtong – 846pm
Just catching up – sorry to hear second test was positive. But great to get the antivirals – they really do make a difference and have been underused. Partly because one of them (Paxlovid) has a lot of interactions so many people can’t take them because of the other medications they are on – though they could still generally take the other main one Molupiravir (Lagevrio). But there are some GPs who are less likely to prescribe them, and of course some patients feel they are not so sick to need them – but the evidence is certainly in for anyone over 65 or otherwise vulnerable in reducing severe illness, hospitalisations and death.
So hope you both sail through. Good to have something like the swimming (and the soccer) to watch while you’re isolating.
Posted on Victorian late results thread – but I was wondering if anyone has any early thoughts on the 2023 NSW election ‘pendulum’ and Labor’s chances?
*****************************************************************
The current geographical distribution of voters in Victoria helps Labor – they really do have a ‘Red Wall’ in the north and west of Melbourne which creates a base of about 28 seats which it seems the Liberals just can’t win (including a few Greens ones). Add in the Frankston line seats, Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong and it is difficult to see where the next Coalition win comes from.
Nothing is impossible and I take nothing for granted – but it would take a massive sweep of all the eastern and south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne and even then they would have to win every feasible regional seat.
This seems a contrast to NSW – I have never analysed the state electorate map too closely but it seems to me that Labor in NSW won’t get much ‘bang for their buck’ in 2023. They have 37 seats and need 10 for a majority. There are three Coalition seats under 1% on the pendulum, one on 3.1% and then you’re into the over 5% margins. To get 10 on a uniform swing they need 6.8%.
To get one of those ‘much talked about’ minority governments I would presume they could rely on support from three Greens and at least two independents (Alex Greenwich and Greg Piper) so they would still need five seats, and a 5% swing. Conversely of course the Coalition are on 47 seats and if they lost even just East Hills (0.1%) they would go into minority.
@historyintime:
“Marisa Payne, ‘moderate’ Liberal. I have observed carefully over the years and I think the moderates are generally the meannest in economic terms. Their moderation applies purely to social and cultural issues.”
The starting point – in fact the end point – to understand is that HMAS Marise is a member of the Liberal Party: an 80 year old marketing scam. “Moderate” vs “conservative” is pure performative theatre: scamming the punters that this outfit is actually on the side of anybody other than the establishment is their only true calling.
Payne, for all her public frizzle over Howard back in the day has been an ardent adherent to Howard’s way: punch down. Hard. Brag about it on 2GB and encourage ‘tradies’ and other like folk – whose parents habitually voted Labor – to do the same and also brag about it. Then vote liberal. ‘Cause ‘Aspirational’. Works a treat in the riff.
Frack her.
Rocket Rocket says:
The current geographical distribution of voters in Victoria helps Labor – they really do have a ‘Red Wall’ in the north and west of Melbourne which creates a base of about 28 seats which it seems the Liberals just can’t win (including a few Greens ones).
This seems a contrast to NSW – I have never analysed the state electorate map too closely but it seems to me that Labor in NSW won’t get much ‘bang for their buck’
______________
It’s an interesting phenomenon of electoral geography. The Yarra acts almost as an internal border, meaning that redistributions in the North and West always lead to a Labor (or Greens) seat.
probably another factor is that Victoria is more centralised than NSW.
Although it used to be said that the reason Labor was weak in Victoria was because of this concentration in the North and West. But I suspect the massive population growth in these regions in the past 30 years have built up such a block of seats that this is now less relevant.
Lars Von Trier @ Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 8:49 pm:
“I hope your right MacArthur. There’s a view that the US has given UKR enough to bleed Russia but not enough to win”
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Lars, thank you. To quote an Estonian milyoutuber I often watch: “Time will tell”.
You can see the demographic center of Melbourne shifting westwards over time.
C@tmomma @ Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 8:52 pm:
“ No. Lars von Trier specialises in oleaginous posturing meant to generate a negative miasma. I honestly doubt he has a genuine position either way, or, to be more specific, if he perceives that we here are of a mind to hold one position, he enjoys coming along and being the spoiler.”
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Neutral on this, maybe. But hedge-betting with a fig-leaf of “I hope Ukraine wins” is a little … milquetoast for this strife, I think.
In that graphic I can see the demographic centre of Melbourne circling around such that it is now about a couple of km from where it was 40 years ago….
nath
Yes I’ve seen that demographic centre map before – I think for all the 1900s it was moving southeast as Melbourne sprawled out in that direction, and then this century this has been balanced and now exceeded in the northwest and the ‘centre’ has started tracking back.
Although a politics lecturer from years ago used to say ‘whoever holds Ballarat and Bendigo holds Victoria’. As good a truism as any I think.
Labor in NSW does not even have candidates in seats they need to win. Neither do the Libs in some seats. Whose head office is run the worst?
wranslide @ #2568 Tuesday, December 13th, 2022 – 9:47 pm
Both major parties in NSW treat the electorate with contempt.
Perhaps it’s time to vote for someone else?
Labor should win in nsw wranslide . If they can’t win after 3 terms and the number of liberal resignations ….
But maybe it is the counterpart to Victoria.
Demographics will fix BEXIT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DW-UtudXt2w&ab_channel=EoghanCorry
B.S. Fairman @ #2512 Tuesday, December 13th, 2022 – 7:10 pm
Creating horcux takes it out of you.
Apologies to JK Rowling
frednk
I liked Michael O’Leary’s line
“If isolationism worked, North Korea would be the world’s most successful economy”
Get well soon laughtong.
”
Aqualungsays:
Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 9:52 pm
B.S. Fairman @ #2512 Tuesday, December 13th, 2022 – 7:10 pm
Anyone else think Dutton has lost weight? His face looks even thinner then it was and it makes him look even more skeleton like. Almost to the point you would think he is unwell.
Creating horcux takes it out of you.
Apologies to JK Rowling
”
Skeletor.
Rocket Rocket @ #2573 Tuesday, December 13th, 2022 – 9:55 pm
Well, according to them, they are.
”
nathsays:
Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 9:41 pm
Although a politics lecturer from years ago used to say ‘whoever holds Ballarat and Bendigo holds Victoria’. As good a truism as any I think.
”
Thanks to Bracks?
Player One the Greens could very well hold the balance of power in NSW. Especially if those north coast seats continue to swing Green and they can hold the inner city seats which given the retirement in Balmain of the local member is not a guarantee.
Labor has some challenges in South West Sydney but it should be able to hold those areas. It must pick up East Hills. The Fed results were not strong for Labor in that part of Banks. A seat like Ryde has had a setback with the candidate bombing out early. Parramatta they have no candidate in place although I presume the local Mayor will be the pick. But neither do the Libs. But it’s awfully late to raise money for those seats and the political management of Labor HQ has not exactly been stellar in my view.
Get well really soon, laughtong! I love your reports from the Herald Sun fronts. 😀
‘Firmageddon’: Researchers find 1.1 million acres of dead trees in Oregon from drought and heat
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/13/2141545/–Firmageddon-Researchers-find-1-1-million-acres-of-dead-trees-in-Oregon-from-drought-and-heat
Nathan Gilles of Columbia Insight broke the news that the recent droughts plaguing the PNW have resulted in the death of trees in a jaw-dropping 1900 square miles of forest. He notes that Oregon was the hardest hit by the deaths of fir trees in what researchers at the United States Forest Service refer to as “Firmageddon.” The research has yet to be published by the USFS, and the emphasis is put on preliminary.
Ven,
What do you think about Labor’s prospects in NSW?
I think their regional ground game has been good. It has taken a while to establish footholds in the SW, NW and Central Coast suburbs and it’s from there I think they can build their base and the numbers for a future state government.
wranslide @ #2578 Tuesday, December 13th, 2022 – 10:06 pm
And that would be good for NSW. However, I also think the Teals may grab a seat or two, which would make things even better! 🙂
Player One I am surprised at your support of the TEALS. Yes, ideally they knock over Liberals, but they have really stolen the march on the Greens in those areas.
The coalition will want to win back the SFF seats. Would think Donato will be safe
C@tmomma. What seats does Labor not hold on the Central Coast apart from Terrigal?
”
wranslidesays:
Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 10:06 pm
Player One the Greens could very well hold the balance of power in NSW. Especially if those north coast seats continue to swing Green and they can hold the inner city seats which given the retirement in Balmain of the local member is not a guarantee.
”
I can’t see NSW Labor winning 10 seats to win majority with a uniform swing of 6.8%.n
Bob Carr could not do it in 1995. He got ‘majority of votes in majority of seats’. And Minns doesn’t have 25% political smarts of Carr. And Carr really really wanted to win. Minns is very lazy when compared to Carr.
wranslide @ #2583 Tuesday, December 13th, 2022 – 10:13 pm
I am not a supporter of Teals per se. The two-party system has failed to address climate change, both parties being beholden to the fossil fuel cartel, and I am a supporter of anything that might change that.
”
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 10:09 pm
Ven,
What do you think about Labor’s prospects in NSW?
I think their regional ground game has been good. It has taken a while to establish footholds in the SW, NW and Central Coast suburbs and it’s from there I think they can build their base and the numbers for a future state government.
”
My response to wranslide at @10:16pm
For example, take SW seat of East Hills. It was the most marginal seat for 2 elections and NSW Labor still couldn’t win it.
Ven on what basis do you say you have sufficient evidence to say that Minns is lazy? It is a common refrain bandied about on here. I am curious where it comes from. Yes his style appears to laconic at times but that does not mean he is lazy?
”
shellbellsays:
Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 10:14 pm
The coalition will want to win back the SFF seats. Would think Donato will be safe
”
Shellbell
After the implosion of SFF, I think LNP has very good chance of winning all SFF (4?)seats.
So there you go they start with an advantage of 4 seats at the starting line up. Also, the Nationals performed really well in 2022 at WA, Federal and Victoria elections.
Ven. Different candidate this time in East Hills though. The local political machine has been ossified. It’s lack of success in elections at both Federal and State level suggests change is necessary but I wonder if they have adjusted enough to win. It might be the it’s time factor perhaps in a seat like East Hills with such a close margin. Although Labor was up against a new candidate last time around and still could not get across the line but then again hapless Michael Daley and his merry band of supporters were in charge then and he had Gladys and the fawning of NSW media over her.
Ven I am not so sure about the Nats in regional areas. I suspect they will get belted in the North Coast (what is left of them). I think a seat like Tweed could be a challenge along with Coffs Harbour. The floods and everything in those areas might hit the Nats given the Govt response?.
As for the west, I am not sure the SFF will fade out. They each seem decent local members so they could have enough name recognition to hold on.
”
wranslidesays:
Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 10:19 pm
Ven on what basis do you say you have sufficient evidence to say that Minns is lazy? It is a common refrain bandied about on here. I am curious where it comes from. Yes his style appears to laconic at times but that does not mean he is lazy?
”
As far as I know he did not campaign in those super Saturday by-elections extensively.
Labor won Bega and Strathfield because it had good candidates and NSW Libs were in deep trouble at State and Federal level at that time.
They could not win Barilaro Queanbeyan seat because Labor selected candidate late and did not campaign hard (and this is responsibility of the leader).
And it appears he did not catch the imagination of Sydney people.
Ven. Candidate selection is the domain of Labor Head Office. Perhaps you should gaze at the leadership there as well? They still don’t have candidates in plenty of seats. Cabra, Fairfield, Parra.
”
wranslidesays:
Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 10:28 pm
Ven I am not so sure about the Nats in regional areas. I suspect they will get belted in the North Coast (what is left of them). I think a seat like Tweed could be a challenge along with Coffs Harbour. The floods and everything in those areas might hit the Nats given the Govt response?.
As for the west, I am not sure the SFF will fade out. They each seem decent local members so they could have enough name recognition to hold on.
”
wranslide
Did you notice the result of federal seat centred around Coffs Harbour (or is it the seat to the its North?) Nats increased their 2PP in that seat in May election.
It was flood affected before May election. Regional and Rural National voters don’t seem to care about circumstances when they vote for Nats.
nath says:
Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 9:31 pm
You can see the demographic center of Melbourne shifting westwards over time.
**********
It’s not the growth of population in the North and West that has changed Labor’s Victorian fortunes since the 1980s – Melbournes population centre is still in the middle eastern belt of suburbs – It’s the growth of Labor votes in the South and East (and Victoria’s major regional cities).
One of the things that social media has done is that it’s given incumbent MPs (particularly government ones) the opportunity to be community resources in times of crisis – potentially increasing the advantages of incumbency. This was mentioned in the Victorian thread (in the context of Labor suffering much smaller swings in northern/western suburb seats in seats with active incumbents), and may also explain the unexpected-to-most-of-us swing to Kevin Hogan in Page at the federal election.
wranslide,
I probably should have said a bulwark on the Central Coast from which to keep expanding up into the Hunter and the areas where development is occurring, such as Warnervale. I don’t know exactly which seats we do or do not hold up around there but if we don’t hold them then I think we have a good chance of taking them due to the new housing developments. I also believe that we have a good shot at Terrigal because the candidate we have chosen has as much star quality as Dr Gordon Reid. Terrigal is a bigger ask because we went backwards last election but there are always surprises on the night. Fingers crossed.
andrewmck
Yes an interesting post-election map. Labor (and independents) couldn’t win that inner east band from Sandringham to Bulleen, but then they dominate the middle east-southeast. The Liberals’ best chances are probably on the outer fringe of this group – though Labor winning Glen Waverley and Bayswater this time seemingly moves the ‘Labor band’ inexorably further east. Some of these south-east seats are in areas which Labor first won narrowly in the 1980s under John Cain and are now on margins of more than 10%.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/46/2022_Victoria_State_Election_%28Assembly%29.svg
@Rocket and andrewmck
The LNP palaver at the federal and vic elections about picking up seats in the outer suburbs was horsedoodoo from day 1. The way they sold it was, we’re going to lose the teal seats cos those people are too smart and sophisticated so we’ll target the racist homophobic stupid people in the outer burbs. Calling people stupid rarely induces them to vote for you.
The LNP treated their supporters and their detractors with contempt.
NSW in 2023 is going to be a fascinating election. Let’s hope we see some genuine polling!