YouGov: 50-50 in Queensland

Despite declining personal ratings for Annastacia Palasczuk, YouGov records no change from its finding in June that the two parties are neck and neck.

Results from a Queensland state poll by YouGov have been parcelled out over the afternoon by the Courier-Mail, whose reporting I will not dignify with a link (UPDATE: YouGov methodology statement here). The results show no change for the major parties since the last such poll in June, with Labor on 34% of the primary vote, the Liberal National Party on 38%, and level pegging on two-party preferred. The Greens are down a point to 13% and One Nation are up one to 11%. Annastacia Palaszcuk’s personal ratings continue to track downwards, her approval down five to 40% and disapproval up two to 41%, while David Crusafilli is respectively steady at 31% and up four to 27%, with Palaszczuk’s lead as preferred premier narrowing slightly from 41-28 to 39-28. The poll was conducted December 1 to 8 from a sample of 1000.

UPDATE: Now Nine Entertainment’s Brisbane Times website has a fortuitously timed Queensland poll from Resolve Strategic. The results are quite a bit stronger for Labor than YouGov’s, but the poll is a good deal less up to date as it combines results from the pollster’s national polling going back to August. The primary votes are Labor 37%, LNP 35%, Greens 11% and One Nation 6%, which compares with results at the 2020 election of 39.6%, 35.9%, 9.5% and 7.1%. No two-party preferred is provided as per the pollster’s usual practice, but the primary votes imply only a minor swing from Labor’s 53.2-46.8 result at the election. Annastacia Palaszczuk records a 42-30 lead over David Crusafilli as preferred premier. The poll has a sample of 924 and was conducted between August 21 and December 4.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

71 comments on “YouGov: 50-50 in Queensland”

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  1. andrewmck

    > Given the inevitability that QLD will some time over the next few decades become Australia’s most populous state

    That’s a bold claim. Our 2000s growth has largely settled down; we’ve been at most slightly ahead of nationwide population growth since. Not as if the climate’s going to get any friendlier either.

  2. Labor in trouble reports the Qld branch of the Murdochcracy. The ALP were predicted to lose the last election by the Courier and actually increased their majority. The courier keeps trumpeting this kind of rot. They realise of course that their readership is that 30% of hardcore LNP voters so pander to their wishdreams. Meanwhile the ALP has dominated the state landscape for most of the last 33 years. The LNP courier alliance hasn’t really had anything concrete to campaign on other than they don’t like Labor. Barring some major scandal I wouldn’t advise putting your money on the LNP in two years time.

  3. AlexJ: “Our 2000s growth has largely settled down; we’ve been at most slightly ahead of nationwide population growth since.”

    Population Growth
    12 months to March 2022:

    Australia 0.9%
    Queensland 1.8%

    That’s not ‘slightly ahead of nationwide population growth’: it’s *twice* the growth rate.

    Queensland tops the list, head and shoulders ahead of WA on 1.2%.

    The most populous states, NSW and VIC, on 0.6% and 0.5% respectively.

  4. I can’t help feeling though that Government is one major scandal, or a rough 6 months, away from a drop into dangerous territory. Psephologically as well, the Government holds numerous regional seats which it has done wonderfully to keep, and all of them are vulnerable to either the LNP or a strong local independent.

    Labor has been much stronger in the regions state then federal. There is a view partly because the state members have been successful in running on their own brand. It’s not as if they dissociate themselves with the party or don’t have Labor on their corflutes. But they are able to attract support by being a solid member and get people to vote for them who probably normally wouldn’t.

    Queensland is still conservative. There is a view the Labor premiers in Queensland have tended to be more centre. This is in contrast to federal Labor where leaders are mostly from Sydney and Melbourne and tend to be more Left. Which may also explain the differentiational of success between state and federal results. This along with the fact when voters think of state issues they think of health and education which they align those issues with Labor. And when voters think of federal issues they think immigration and economic management they align those issues with the Liberals has also contributed to the differentiational.

  5. Nightwatchman: “… federal Labor where leaders are mostly from Sydney and Melbourne”

    … except for the leaders from Perth (1996 – 2001 and 2005 -2006), Brisbane (2006 – 2010 and 2013), and Adelaide (2010 – 2013).

  6. … except for the leaders from Perth (1996 – 2001 and 2005 -2006), Brisbane (2006 – 2010 and 2013), and Adelaide (2010 – 2013).

    I meant where the leaders were based. Julia Gillard seat of Lalor was based in Melbourne.

  7. Oliver: sure, but quarterly figures jump around.

    I’ve just looked at the data from March 2012 and March 2002 as well. We see Australia as a whole growing at 1.4% over both decades. Qld grows at 2.1% in the first decade and 1.6% in the second (for 1.8% overall). Meanwhile NSW is at 1%… and Victoria at 1.5%.
    The differences are still there but a lot less impressive.

    So yes, I’ve been a little premature in saying “settled down”.
    On these trends Victoria could overtake NSW in the early 2060s, then Qld overtakes NSW in the mid 2070s and Victoria in the 2090s.

    But I think there’s a bigger picture. Qld’s growth tends to be internal-migration heavy whereas NSW and Victoria have more international arrivals. As population catches up, you’d expect Brisbane house prices to catch up too, at which point a major internal-migration pull factor goes away. Lots of growth that looks exponential actually turns out to be sigmoidal, after all.

  8. AlexJ says:
    Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 12:07 pm

    > Given the inevitability that QLD will some time over the next few decades become Australia’s most populous state

    That’s a bold claim.
    Yes. It wasn’t my claim.

  9. The way that federalism is set up in Australia creates a permanent disadvantage for Liberal or small-government parties at the state level. Since the debate is effectively just service delivery, without any real question of how the funds are to be extracted from taxpayers (most of the money is federal transfers), a small-government party will always be on the back foot as “service cutters.”

    Specific to Queensland, the state LNP is simply viewed as amateur hour, the only successful leader they have had this millennium was bussed in from Local Government. ALP just totally outclass them in terms of candidate quality and cleverness (they have successfully maintained their each-way bet on climate and mining here).

    The broader problems of the state liberals also exist in Queensland where, unlike the red team, the LNP don’t have the unions, and their former areas of support and recruitment – civil society organisations (fraternal lodges and professional bodies etc.) have either disappeared or moved with the times where the LNP haven’t. Which means one of the only groups of motivated people interested in attending the branch meetings and campaigning, other than the econ nerds who care about the deficit are Christian conservatives on a religious mission (I am one of these). This changes the makeup of the active membership to be out of line with community standards, but for the Christian conservative wing, winning elections isn’t exactly the point. But it’s a vicious cycle that reduces the pool of talented acceptable candidates.

    I’ll be very surprised if LNP pull it off in 2024, if they can do so competently they might be able to attract some more talent and keep it going.

  10. AlexJ says:
    Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 4:07 pm
    andrewmck: Oh, I see. Apologies. Still tuning into the subtleties of how people quote each other around here.
    No worries. I think the various capabilities of the interfaces people use- phones, IPads, PCs – has a lot to do with the variability in citations.

  11. AlexJ, this recent article might be of interest:

    “Far more people are moving to Queensland than any other state or territory, while New South Wales recorded the biggest net loss, Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows.

    “There was a net gain of more than 100,000 people to the Sunshine State in the five years to 2021, according to internal migration numbers from the census.

    “The biggest net loss was just south of the border, as 102,000 people moved out of NSW. … almost 10,000 people left Victoria.”

  12. AlexJ : Re QLD imminent most populous state. “Not as if the climate’s going to get any friendlier either.”

    QLD really has everything. Energy, minerals, an effectively infinite supply of renewable energy, an effectively infinite amount of the most important thing: Water. 5.2Mil people already. Jungles, forests, industry, sun blasted hellscapes, wilderness, farmland, a tourist bonanza everywhere, and large cities spread far apart. And then there’s the work. So much everywhere. I mean Oz is lucky everywhere, but especially lucky in QLD. I would expect the difference between states to continue and even accelerate.

    EDIT: was slightly off with qld pop. But both Gold Coast and Brisbane are genuinely big cities now.

  13. That’s a good note from Kevin Bonham. Bligh and Newman were very unpopular just before their election defeats and Palasczuck has merely had a modest dip. She still dominates as preferred leader and is by far the Government’s biggest electoral asset. Also, even if she continued living ‘the high life’ (if she does) she can pull it back because there just isn’t that visceral distaste for her and the Government …yet. She is just hard to dislike, both in terms of personality and in the steady approach of the Government.

    That said, I still think the Government is vulnerable, as any ALP Government in Queensland is, apart from Beatties for a few years. However, they just seem to grip on.

  14. Pal: “The broader problems of the state liberals also exist in Queensland …”

    The biggest problem for the Liberals in Queensland is that — prior to their shotgun marriage to the Nationals — they were a minor party, an appendage to the dominant Nationals.

    Within living memory, the Nationals have even governed solo, with the desultory Liberals relegated to the crossbench.

    (Several members of that government later served time in jail, but that’s another story …)

  15. Typo alert: It’s Crisafulli, not Crisafilli.

    David may perhaps hope to “fill” the 2PP for the LNP with votes, but that’s only because he is “full” of dreams and delusion…. 🙂

  16. Speaking of Crisafulli, he was fairly quiet about the CMs ” shock polling” results. Maybe he was being careful about sounding like he was a shoe-in for the Premiership.
    As it was, the Resolve Poll came out and countered the YouGov crap completely. Crisafulli obviously realized then the sense of not going full- on about the YouGov poll.
    That CM “revelation ” went cold very quickly anyway. A loss for both the Merdeocracy and the LNP.
    I reckon they’ll try it on again but methinks this was yet another “own goal” for the incompetents.

  17. Until Conservatives become conservatives in action then little will change.
    1) Oppose the voice on the grounds that it is highly divisive and will change nothing.
    2) Oppose Climate Change, as it is not man made and the titanic shift to renewables is economic suicide.
    3) Oppose all transgender teachings in primary schools, it is essential primary school children receive a solid grounding in English, Maths and Reading as they are the cornerstone to a full and proper career.
    4) Follow Singapore’s lead in the corporal punishment of juvenile crime and start calling it for what it is, Aboriginal Youth Crime, we do them no favours in trying to cover up the truth of the endemic infantile sexual abuse, vicious assaults and motor vehicle theft along with welfare funded drug and substance abuse that has become synonymous with Aboriginal life.

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