Results from a Queensland state poll by YouGov have been parcelled out over the afternoon by the Courier-Mail, whose reporting I will not dignify with a link (UPDATE: YouGov methodology statement here). The results show no change for the major parties since the last such poll in June, with Labor on 34% of the primary vote, the Liberal National Party on 38%, and level pegging on two-party preferred. The Greens are down a point to 13% and One Nation are up one to 11%. Annastacia Palaszcuk’s personal ratings continue to track downwards, her approval down five to 40% and disapproval up two to 41%, while David Crusafilli is respectively steady at 31% and up four to 27%, with Palaszczuk’s lead as preferred premier narrowing slightly from 41-28 to 39-28. The poll was conducted December 1 to 8 from a sample of 1000.
UPDATE: Now Nine Entertainment’s Brisbane Times website has a fortuitously timed Queensland poll from Resolve Strategic. The results are quite a bit stronger for Labor than YouGov’s, but the poll is a good deal less up to date as it combines results from the pollster’s national polling going back to August. The primary votes are Labor 37%, LNP 35%, Greens 11% and One Nation 6%, which compares with results at the 2020 election of 39.6%, 35.9%, 9.5% and 7.1%. No two-party preferred is provided as per the pollster’s usual practice, but the primary votes imply only a minor swing from Labor’s 53.2-46.8 result at the election. Annastacia Palaszczuk records a 42-30 lead over David Crusafilli as preferred premier. The poll has a sample of 924 and was conducted between August 21 and December 4.
After 7 years in power, 50:50 is a pretty good result for Labor….considering all the crap thrown at them and the cast of fruit loops they face (LNP, Katter, Hanson, One Nation, Palmer, Greens and Murdoch).
Given that Palaszczuk has been attacked constantly and getting no media sympathy, as a Labor supporter, I’d take this as a good W. Even if the LNP start polling 53-47 ahead of Labor, by Election Day, that lead would probs be around neck and neck to 51-49 to Labor. So I reckon using this, the Election Day result would be a slim majority for Labor, to a hung parliament (most likely a slim ALP majority). What’s your thoughts William?
“… the Courier-Mail, whose reporting I will not dignify with a link.“
A wise move.
50-50 half way through a fourth term Government with the Courier Mail at em every day. Hmmm I not too shabby. IMHO
The Kattermites currently have three MPs (including Robert 3.0).
Palaszczuk secured a deal with them in her first term, and could conceivably do it again, if necessary.
The Courier Mail appears fair and balanced to me. Boning Gleeson has increased their integrity 🙂
“Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s biggest electoral strength – her relatability – is in tatters, with new polling showing six in 10 Queenslanders now think she “enjoys the high life”, and just half saying she works hard.
That is a massive 10 percentage point spike since June in the number of Queenslanders who have noticed the Premier who first won their hearts for her everyday personality is now enjoying the trappings of office, almost eight years since she won power.”
“While 60 per cent of Queenslanders are still confident the Premier “cares about Queensland” – outside of South East Queensland the result plummets to 50 per cent, with an alarming 36 per cent of respondents in the regions saying she does not care.
But there are concerns that even some Labor voters are starting to turn on the Premier.
While 75 per cent of them say she still works hard and 83 per cent think she cares about Queensland, 40 per cent say she enjoys the high life and 28 per cent think she is easily influenced – a 5 percentage point lift on that score since June.”
Really hard to predict how Queensland 2024 will go. Looking at the pendulum, most of Labor’s marginal seats are in the regions, yet most of the LNP’s most marginal seats are in the South-East.
Either way, for Labor to be reduced to minority, it would need to lose 6 of its 52 seats. And for the LNP to gain a majority, it needs to gain 13 seats when it currently holds 34.
So a 50-50 poll on election day would actually see a likely minority government. I’d be curious to see a breakdown of the votes between the Regions and the Southeast.
The CM questions were:
‘Thinking about Anna’s penchant for the high life, do you think she is still a Premier who cares, or now doesn’t care about Queensland?’
”
Upnorthsays:
Monday, December 12, 2022 at 6:05 pm
50-50 half way through a fourth term Government with the Courier Mail at em every day. Hmmm I not too shabby. IMHO
”
You posted in open thread: The poll should send shudder through the backbenchers according to Courier mail.
As a Qlder, I ask you, will this poll do that?
”
Upnorthsays:
Monday, December 12, 2022 at 1:16 pm
Yougov Poll in the Curious Snail this afternoon “set to send shockwaves through Queensland’s Labor caucus”.
I’m not surprised. Government going into its’ fourth term and the MSM have been hammering Stacia hard. Also from memory every mid term Snail Poll hasn’t been friendly to QLD Labor since 1992.
“
Ven:
“The poll should send shudder through the backbenchers according to Courier mail. As a Qlder, I ask you, will this poll do that?”
As a Queenslander, I say that the polls have been 50-50, give or take a point, since at least 2015.
LMAO, so this is the “nightmare poll” the Courier Mail have been spruiking? A 50-50 result for a nearly eight year old government that often polled worse than this during its first two terms?
Sprocket. Is that question correct. Sounds like you might be doing some leg pulling?
@Torchbearer
“After 7 years in power, 50:50 is a pretty good result for Labor….”
Agreed.
“considering all the crap thrown at them and the cast of fruit loops they face (LNP, Katter, Hanson, One Nation, Palmer, Greens and Murdoch).”
If the opposition is a disparate bunch of fruit loops like you portray, shouldn’t Labor be leading 60-40?
You seem to contradict your first statement.
“The CM questions were:
‘Thinking about Anna’s penchant for the high life, do you think she is still a Premier who cares, or now doesn’t care about Queensland?’”
I don’t buy all the complaints on here about all the media being stacked against the left, but the above question is truly terrible it’s so loaded, and surprised a reputable pollster agreed to its wording.
Unless, of course, Sprocket has omitted to mention that respondents were first asked if they thought Anna had a penchant for the high life: YES/NO and the above question was a follow-up to the YES’s but I assume Sprocket would have mentioned that for context. I haven’t looked up the poll myself.
Back on Victoria briefly, interesting that PB’s pendulum now shows a jump in favour of Labor on 2pp, now at 55-45.
Is this correct, were there that many (very) late votes to tip it as much as that?
If yes, then the swing of 2.6% away from Labor is significantly smaller than the 3.5% swing it looked like the first few days.
Also with the thing about the regions said, Queensland Labor may want to pay close attention to its three seats in Townsville. In the federal election this year, Herbert (which covers all three) actually swung to the LNP and is held 11.8% by them in 2pp.
I understand that Queensland in particular is good at differentiating state and federal issues, those are not good numbers to see when Labor holds Townsville by 3.1%, Thuringowa by 3.2% and Mundingburra by 3.9%.
50/50 isn’t too bad. The Palasczuck Givernment has never really dominated like Beattie’s did. However, Palasczuck is still essential to the Government’s reelection, even with a fall in popularity. The alternatives don’t have the public standing that Anna Bligh had when she took over and Palasczuck hasn’t ‘groomed’ a successor.
I can’t help feeling though that Government is one major scandal, or a rough 6 months, away from a drop into dangerous territory. Psephologically as well, the Government holds numerous regional seats which it has done wonderfully to keep, and all of them are vulnerable to either the LNP or a strong local independent.
@BTSays
It might be 55-45 now, but it will probably dip a bit back to the Coalition once the Narracan supplementary election is done, especially if it’s the case that Labor doesn’t even run a candidate like some pundits are predicting.
Historyintime: “… the Government holds numerous regional seats which it has done wonderfully to keep, and all of them are vulnerable to either the LNP or a strong local independent.“
And yet … the LNP / Coalition has won just one general election since the end of the Joh era a third of a century ago.
This sounds like a poll to “warm the cockles of the heart” of some grumpy old white males, largely and increasingly more irrelevant, buyers of the tree variety of news and insanely jealous of Annastacia having has such success in the engine room of the home of Queenslanders.
It didn’t work federally or in SA or in Victoria so lets start the bullshit in 2022 for an election in Queensland in 2024.
The Teals will be forming a queue to pull down the pants of the boys in Bermuda shorts.
‘And yet … the LNP / Coalition has won just one general election since the end of the Joh era a third of a century ago.’
Well the ALP continually threads the proverbial needle to win these seats. Plus the LNP is full of muppets and loves cutting services, including regional services. Who knows though, the LNP might win one and govern effectively and then Queensland becomes Florida politically speaking.
I force myself to watch one private TV channel here in Brisbane (Channel 7, now a 9-Network channel), just to see what the mainstream media say about the ALP state government (sorry, I just can’t read any Murdoch newspapers, starting from The Courier!!)… and the anti-ALP propaganda is continuous, disgusting and relentless.
Well, after that and given that this is now a long-term state government, a 2PP of 50%-50% is quite good, I would say. Anna will obviously continue to be in the “crosshairs” of the media, but in spite of that Crisafulli is not emerging as the one who will replace her: “with Palaszczuk’s lead as preferred premier narrowing slightly from 41-28 to 39-28.”… Oh, and a narrowing of 2% is just within the margin of error.
“Historyintime says:
Monday, December 12, 2022 at 7:20 pm
….Who knows though, the LNP might win one and govern effectively and then Queensland becomes Florida politically speaking.”…
Queensland is a serious case study for political analysts: already Florida federally, but California at the state level…
Since I have moved to this state (from Victoria) I have been obsessed with this Queensland conundrum…
Alpo: “… already Florida federally …”
… if 10% of Florida’s congressmen and women were Greens.
“Oliver Sutton says:
Monday, December 12, 2022 at 7:43 pm
Alpo: “… already Florida federally …”
… if 10% of Florida’s congressmen and women were Greens.”
Yeah, but look by how much the LNP wins federal elections in Qld… and the pattern has been going on for a long time. Even the Queenslander Rudd could only manage a slim win for the ALP in Qld in 2007 (less that 51% 2PP from memory) only for the federal ALP to return to its losing pattern in the state from then on, including in 2022.
I don’t think Labor will be concerned with this poll; the election, just under two years away (Oct, 26, ’24). Before then, Palaszczuk will most likely pass the baton to Dick or Miles, both strong performers. Crisafulli, the member for Broadwater, seems to have acquitted himself reasonably well as the LOTO, but I’m not sure he has much appeal in metro Brisbane, and the regions. Perhaps he should do a topless stunt as the dear “Borg” did.
https://www.news.com.au/opinion/sexing-up-the-queensland-election/news-story/7fe1950a7f75cb6c46304bd4c52bac16
Queensland’s voting patterns are very interesting, and should really be studied more. On a Federal and Local level, they tend to lean toward the LNP, but at the State level, they tend to support Labor.
Take the last three elections at each level. In the 2020 local elections, the LNP won 19/27 seats in the Brisbane city council. Then at the 2020 state election, Labor won all but 7 seats in Brisbane. And then at the 2022 Federal election, Labor failed to pick up any seats in the state, and essentially lost 2 to the Greens in Brisbane.
Thanks to all for info and commentary. I did not watch any local news tonight, on principle.
My take?
1. That q about Anna enjoying the high life is about as leading as a biased poll can get. On that alone, not worth a pinch of shit….
2 Even playing it as bad as they could, its still 50/ 50 by their reckoning. Hmm.
3. Leading with a biased question and Anna’s still well ahead in preferred Premier. Crisafulli’s got a lot of work to do to close the gap.
4 With all the media coverage the Libs got in Victoria, it did jackshit for them, didn’t it? Will the LNP in Qld have that thought in the back of their minds? ( Yes, admittedly the Vic Libs were absolutely woeful, with a tainted, recycled leader..and Victoria a progressive State. Hardly able to make comparisons here, though.)
5. Metropolitan voters in the SE are hardly like to swamp the LNP with their votes. Dissatisfaction with AP and her Government may result in a lean to The Greens , not to a constant theme of criticism and negativity from the LNP Press, IMO.
6 Labor has got a proficient team overall. Some duds though. But what does the LNP team look like? Pretty mediocre so far.
7. Lastly.( I promise). Labor has runs on the board and economically quite proficient. The LNP are going to have to come up with a load of progressive policies and a team that captures the public – Crisafulli can’t do it on his own… Are those two hurdles too much for the LNP to jump, considering the Feds problems?
Voters by and large know that you need an ALP government at state level. The state provides the services you want; health, education, transport etc. You just know in your heart of hearts that the LNP will slash those services. It is both their DNA and MO. Campbell Newman is still at the forefront of people’s minds – just as Kennet still makes Victorians shudder.
Nonetheless If Albo were asked to give up a state ….. it’d be good ol QLD.
50/50 is a good result at this point in the cycle. AP would take it.
Open question:
The next Qld state election will be the first one “post”-Covid. Given that in the last couple of years there has been a flow of immigrants to Qld from the Covid-challenged NSW and VIC, I wonder whether there will be an “immigrant effect” at the election and if so, in which direction is it likely to affect the results?
“I don’t think Labor will be concerned with this poll; the election, just under two years away (Oct, 26, ’24). Before then, Palaszczuk will most likely pass the baton to Dick or Miles, both strong performers.”
@Mavis
Not so sure Mavis. I actually think Annastasia Palaszczuk is adamant she is going full term and leading Labor to the next election. Pretty sure she will unless the party thinks there is a better option polling wise.
Peter Beattie has called for Annastasia to groom a successor recently. While he uses the out he’s happy for her to pass his time as premier. It still gives the perception that hes suggesting she quit before the next election and she’s been there too long. Courier Mail predictably picked it up and ran with it that way when he commented.
Labor has generally done better with succession plans for long term leaders. Bob Hawke, Peter Beattie, Mike Rann and Bob Carr being classic examples. Hawke and Rann were forced to go though.
“MABWM says:
Monday, December 12, 2022 at 9:14 pm
….Nonetheless If Albo were asked to give up a state ….. it’d be good ol QLD.”
Frankly, I don’t think so. The federal ALP spent a lot of time and resources in Qld from 2019 to 2022, with the hope of bridging the federal gap between ALP and LNP in the state. Albo and his team visited regularly during that period, and much was done to defuse the LNP scaremongering about the ALP coming to destroy the Qld mining-based part of the economy, etc…. Admittedly, the effort didn’t produce any measurable result for the ALP (which indeed is a worry). Still, the ALP will (and should) never give up on Qld!!
PN: “Labor has generally done better with succession plans for long term leaders. Bob Hawke, Peter Beattie, Mike Rann and Bob Carr being classic examples.”
Bracks throwing in the towel for Brumby was a bit of a surprise to me when it happened. Ditto Gallop to Carpenter in WA. Lots of different reasons for it, but it’s not that uncommon. ALP leaders seem to pass the baton on all of the time. It’s the conservatives that inevitably leave a smoking wreck after they’ve been kicked out.
Alpo: “Still, the ALP will (and should) never give up on Qld!!”
Given the inevitability that QLD will some time over the next few decades become Australia’s most populous state, if they don’t have a strategy for increasing their numbers there, it will only get harder and harder over time.
Pi says:
Monday, December 12, 2022 at 10:31 pm
Alpo: “Still, the ALP will (and should) never give up on Qld!!”
Given the inevitability that QLD will some time over the next few decades become Australia’s most populous state, if they don’t have a strategy for increasing their numbers there, it will only get harder and harder over time.
************
My hope is that Queensland is a bit like the traditional marginal Victorian state seats that stayed with the Libs in 1999 but swung hard to Labor in 2002, rewarding a progressive, active Government that was, you know, governing. The same thing happened between the 2014 and 2018 elections, and the Hawke Govt built its Queensland strength over time.
Prices for mineral exports are going to have the QLD budget looking good in two years.
Like WA, QLD has to spend lots on renewables and in regional Qld there will be ongoing objection and scare mongering. Workers, families and towns worried about the changing world of less pollutants.
Along will come Pawleen doing what’s best for Pawleen. Unlikely enough seats will swing to change Govt but it will make things uncomfortable.
On the plus side, Scummo and friends not making the Libs look good. Campbell Newman gone but not forgotten. Who knows what the religious nutters are doing behind the scenes.
With a trillion dollars of debt in Canberra, Libs can’t pull that better money managers stuff any more either.
Public Polling Methodology Statement
https://commercial.yougov.com/rs/464-VHH-988/images/yougov-au-221203-QLD-Public-Polling-Methodology-Statement-first-print.pdf
Resolve Strategic poll,
ALp 37 -3
LNP 35 -1
Greens 11 +2
ON 6 -1
KAP 1 -2
Others 3 0
Ind 7 +5
Preferred Premier Palecek 42 30.
I assume vote comparison is with last election.
Ind 7
Preferred Premier
If that Resolve is right it’s panic stations for the LNP.
Hope the Government doesn’t get complacent.
Resolve 53/47 disregard kap
Expect kap will retain all their seats. As will probably the greens and the sole onp
Rep. Post fair boundaries qld has been mainly electing alp govts.similar to
Vic. But Labor rarely gets landslides. Seems qld elects coalition govts for 1 term then they are found wanting and turfed out. Think there have only been 2 or 3 one term coalition govts since 1989. Alp in qld does quite good in Brisbane on the coast eg Cairns Rockhamption. Can in good times win seats on Gold and
Sunshine coasts.Are Minus Katter competive in Mount Isa . Also able to entrench themselves in seats like Maryborough Bruce Saunders will retain this seat for as long as he contests
“Still, the ALP will (and should) never give up on Qld!!”
Quite rightly, Alpo!
Labor lore locates the party’s origins under the ‘Tree of Knowledge’ in Blackall.
And Queensland gavr the world its first Labo(u)r government (albeit fleetingly).
“Seems qld elects coalition govts for 1 term then they are found wanting and turfed out. Think there have only been 2 or 3 one term coalition govts since 1989.”
In fact, Mick, there has been just *one* one-term Coalition or LNP government in Queensland in the third of a century since the end of the Joh era.
A desperate LNP chose former Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman as leader — despite the fact that he was not actually a member of parliament. A rare instance of someone from the Liberal wing of the LNP taking the leadership of a party (and former coalition) dominated by the Nationals.
Newman won a seat in parliament, and the premiership, in 2012. And was summarily despatched, as premier and MP, just three years later. Queenslanders had been mightily miffed by Anna Bligh’s surprise betrayal on privatisation, but it turned out that, on that front, the LNP made Labor look like amateurs.
In addition to that solitary single term, the Coalition did have a partial term in government 16 years earlier. The Goss Labor government was re-elected in 1995, but fell in 1996 following a by-election which flipped a Labor seat to the Liberals, and then an independent MP who held the balance of power deciding (after careful consideration) to support a Coalition government.
Rob Borbidge became premier for the two years from 1996 to 1998. A fact that the LNP erased from their history in 2009, when they framed their campaign on an ‘its time’ angle of ‘20 years of Labor government’.
Bugger! The Tree of Knowledge is of course in Barcaldine, up the road from Blackall.
Oh …
“Victoria is set to elect its first ever One Nation MP …”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/13/one-nation-on-track-to-have-its-first-mp-in-victorian-parliament
Interesting thought that the Brisbane Times seemingly held back its Resolve Poll until now. It’s release , somewhat dated by now, still counters the Merdeoch poll. Add to that, pollwatchers in the know, not only here in” Labor- luvvie land”, consider that leading nature of the Merdeoch poll question effectively casts a big question mark over its validity.
The LNP will be a little pissed-off that the Times has effectively put a damp quib on its its “much heralded” shock poll.
2024 will be a poll the Opposition must win, rather than stand back and let Labor lose it. Labor will have the advantage of incumbency.
And the Opposition can’t depend on the State’s biased media to shore up its support. People turn off the constant criticism and negativity, regardless of who propagates it.
It seems just when the LNP thought it had an early Xmas present in the bag, someone comes along and leaves some coal instead.
“someone comes along and leaves some coal instead.”
Hey, you say that like it’s a bad thing! 😉
”
Alposays:
Monday, December 12, 2022 at 7:54 pm
“Oliver Sutton says:
Monday, December 12, 2022 at 7:43 pm
Alpo: “… already Florida federally …”
… if 10% of Florida’s congressmen and women were Greens.”
Yeah, but look by how much the LNP wins federal elections in Qld… and the pattern has been going on for a long time. Even the Queenslander Rudd could only manage a slim win for the ALP in Qld in 2007 (less that 51% 2PP from memory) only for the federal ALP to return to its losing pattern in the state from then on, including in 2022.
”
Culminating in QLD LNP politicians as leaders of Federal Liberals and Nationals respectively. Creepy!
Well remembered, Ven. In fact, Kevin-07 pulled a 2PP of just 50.44% in Queensland.
(That did, however, constitute a 7.53% swing, so a success on that measure.)
https://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-13745-QLD.htm
4 With all the media coverage the Libs got in Victoria, it did jackshit for them, didn’t it? Will the LNP in Qld have that thought in the back of their minds? ( Yes, admittedly the Vic Libs were absolutely woeful, with a tainted, recycled leader..and Victoria a progressive State. Hardly able to make comparisons here, though.)
The Queensland state LNP are cut with the same cloth and are pretty hopeless in Queensland. Even Alan Jones and Peter Gleeson have admitted this. One of the problems with them is they are too stacked in the parliamentary ranks with Christian right MPs. There are not many moderates and the few they have are not in prominent positions in the party. The LNP parliamentary team majority voted overwhelming against legalising abortion and euthanasia. While that may be fine with their constituency it goes against public expectations in Brisbane where they need to desperately make inroads.
They also in desperate need of renewal too many Mp’s have stayed there too long. And need to make way for new talent (Tim Nicholls, John Paul-Langbroek, Fiona Simpson, and Ray Stevens) to name a few.
After David Crisafulli the parliament leadership talent is pretty bare. Who are you going to put there? Jarrod Bleijie? Bleijie was a very divisive figure from his time as Attorney General in the Newman government. The controversial VLAD laws and the selection of Tim Carmody as chief Justice during his tenure as minister. There’s an argument he cost more votes than he retained during his time as Attorney General.
Nightwatchman: “Bleijie was a very divisive figure from his time as Attorney General in the Newman government.”
Young Jarrod was dubbed ‘the Conveyancer-General’.