US Georgia Senate runoff election live

Live commentary from late Wednesday morning on the final contest of the US midterm elections. Also: polls turn against NZ Labour and Jacinda Ardern.

Live Commentary

3:44pm Thursday I’ve done a Conversation article which includes the Georgia Senate runoff result. The big advantage of Dems holding the Senate is that the Senate alone can confirm Biden’s judicial nominations for the next two years.

4:56pm Warnock’s lead out to 51.3-48.7 with 99% reporting. This result means Dems hold the Senate by a 51-49 margin, with Pennsylvania (a Dem gain) the only state to change hands this cycle. But the Senate races up in 2024 are bad for the Dems, as they will be defending 23 seats to just ten Rep defences.

2:59pm CNN and the AP have CALLED for Warnock, who currently leads by 50.7-49.3 with 98% in.

1:50pm The NY Times Needle is back. Warnock’s win probability is over 95% and his final winning margin is projected to be 3.2%. Warnock has just moved ahead in the live count again, but there’s still lots more votes to come in metro Atlanta.

1:37pm Cook Political Report analyst Dave Wasserman has seen enough.

1:23pm Warnock has retaken the lead in the live count, by 50.4-49.6 with 78% in.

1:16pm Back from lunch, and the Needle is still down. Walker is barely ahead now by 50.12-49.88 with 74% reporting. Metro Atlanta should get Warnock home from here.

12:54pm Walker now up by 51.0-49.0 in the live count with 65% in. It was about this time on Nov 8 that his lead maxxed.

12:44pm Live count has Walker hitting the lead by 50.6-49.4 with 59% in. But there’s still lots left to count in Atlanta, so Warnock should win.

12:40pm NY Times Needle has paused updates while they investigate a data issue. It had narrowed just before pausing.

12:26pm Needle now up to a 79% chance of Warnock winning, with a final projected margin of Warnock by 2.5%. That’s with an estimated 53% in.

12:18pm Needle now giving Warnock a 71% chance to win and a 1.8% lead in its final results projections. Still a range of Walker by five to Warnock by nine.

12:01pm Needle so far says result could be between a seven-point win for Walker and a nine-point win for Warnock. Best estimate is Warnock by 0.8%.

11:54am The NY Times needle so far has Warnock barely ahead by 0.8% when all votes are counted. That would line up well with his November 0.9% margin, but be worse than the polls.

11:35am With 34% reporting according to CNN, Warnock leads by 61-39. This would be early votes so far.

9:59am Wednesday Late polls are good news for Dem Warnock, with two giving him a five-point lead and one from the Rep-aligned Trafalgar group giving him a four-point lead. I have an appointment, but will be back at 11:30am.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The United States November 8 midterm elections are not quite finished, as the Georgia Senate contest has gone to a runoff today, with polls closing at 11am Wednesday AEDT. At the November 8 election, Democrat Raphael Warnock won 49.4% and Republican Herschel Walker 48.5%. A Libertarian, with 2.1%, prevented a majority for either candidate, and so the runoff. Polls for the runoff suggest Warnock is narrowly ahead.

Democrats currently lead the Senate by 50-49. Even if Warnock loses, they will still control the Senate on Vice President Kamala Harris’ casting vote. But this election is important because Democrats face a very difficult Senate map in the 2024 elections.

Of the 33 Senate seats up for election in 2024, 23 are Democrat-held and just ten Republican-held. Democrat-held seats include three states – West Virginia, Montana and Ohio – that Donald Trump won easily in both 2016 and 2020. Democrats need to win Georgia next week to have a realistic chance of keeping the Senate after the 2024 elections.

At the November 8 election, Warnock took a big lead in early counting, but his lead fell back as the Election Day votes were counted. Walker led at various points, but late counting in Democratic areas gave Warnock a narrow win. If the result is close, I would not expect this contest to be called until Wednesday night AEDT.

NZ Labour has slid behind National in polls

The next New Zealand election will be held in late 2023. At the October 2020 election, Labour won a landslide, with 50.0% to 25.6% for the conservative National, 7.9% for the Greens and 7.6% for the right-wing ACT. At that election, PM Jacinda Ardern was assisted by her success at keeping COVID out of NZ.

NZ uses proportional representation with a 5% threshold, but parties under 5% can enter parliament by winning a single-member seat. The Maori party won two seats at the 2020 election on only 1.2% of votes.

National has now taken the lead, and the two most recent polls by media pollsters – Reid Research and Kantar Public – would give National and ACT combined a majority. Other polls suggest Labour could cling on with support from the Greens and the Maori party. Labour’s problems are probably due to the waning of the COVID boost and the rise of inflation.

95 comments on “US Georgia Senate runoff election live”

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  1. The NYT Needle is back, and it looks like they’ve all but called it for Warnock. Walker is actually still slightly ahead on the tabulated vote, but with heavily Dem DeKalb County still to release a large number of votes, it’s highly probably that Warnock will win a full term, probably with something a 53-47 vote, largely in line with the late polling.

  2. Can’t disagree with the rationale for calling this. The votes just aren’t out there for Walker.

    There are some votes still remaining in some red exurb counties such as Cherokee & Forsyth to the north and Coweta south west but these will, at best, only counterbalance the remaining votes from Chatham (Savannah), Clayton, Henry, Newton (south Atlanta). The northern suburbs (Cobb & Gwinnett) will put sufficient distance; Fulton & De Kalb will be padding out the margin.

  3. Warnock flipped 2 counties till now

    “There is a a second confirmed county flip: Washington County.

    Walker carried it by 1.4% in November. But Warnock carried it by 1.2% today.”

    “Baldwin is the first county that has flipped. It went for Walker by 0.6% last month.

    Warnock won it today by 1.1%. (The Georgia SoS says that the count is completed.)

    https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1600318048581189632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1600318048581189632%7Ctwgr%5Efc7920239af4600f2d1f9d510f43fd2f87fb4cd9%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2022%2F12%2F6%2F2140319%2F-Live-Coverage-Georgia-Senate-runoff-election

  4. “With 87% of the votes tabulated so far, the race remains close.

    But much of the remaining vote is in the Atlanta area, which leans Democratic – and will likely be promising for Warnock. At the election night watch party for the Democrat, director Spike Lee spoke to supporters, as CNN on big screens showed Warnock with a lead.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2022/dec/06/georgia-runoff-election-raphael-warnock-herschel-walker-senate-vote-latest

  5. From NYT page about 1/2 hr ago.

    county – leading – votes – percentage counted – remaining

    Fulton Warnock +65 203,945 56% 163,000
    Gwinnett Warnock +28 195,780 73% 71,000
    Cobb Warnock +24 187,750 66% 95,000
    DeKalb Warnock +82 173,108 64% 99,000

  6. “Analysis: Warnock’s win in Georgia is a bad omen for Trump
    David Smith
    David Smith
    Sanity strikes again.

    Raphael Warnock’s victory over Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff caps an election season in which the normal, the sensible and the fans of fact regained their voice and gave hope that, after long years in which American democracy was feared to be at death’s door, the patient is rallying.

    In simple mathematics, the win gives Democrats 51 seats to Republicans’ 49 in the Senate, speeding up confirmation of Joe Biden’s administrative and judicial nominees and starving the conservative West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin of some of the oxygen he enjoys as the swing vote.

    But more philosophically, it serves as another corrective to the notion that all America suddenly went mad on 8 November 2016, the day Donald Trump was elected instead of Hillary Clinton. Looking back, it’s pertinent to recall that Trump lost the popular vote by nearly three million and benefited from a unique cocktail of circumstances that included entrenched misogyny and running against the ultimate establishment politician.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2022/dec/06/georgia-runoff-election-raphael-warnock-herschel-walker-senate-vote-latest

  7. Adrian Beaumont and others interested in Election trivia

    Some history-making tonight:

    • First midterm since ’62 that Dems netted Senate seats while holding White House

    • First midterm since ’34 that the WH party netted Senate seats *and* governorships

    • First midterm since ’34 that the WH party didn’t *lose* a single Senate seat

    https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1600330996724793344?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1600330996724793344%7Ctwgr%5E19c5ac6b6c6c1963661c994f34ce668033f40fbf%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2022%2F12%2F6%2F2140319%2F-Live-Coverage-Georgia-Senate-runoff-election

  8. A Senate majority for the Democrats means that President Biden will be able to make senior appointments and have them confirmed.

    ” The United States Constitution provides that the president “shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the Supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States, whose Appointments are not herein otherwise provided for.” (Article II, section 2)”

    https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/nominations.htm

  9. @Ven – also worth noting 1934 was still the early days of the New Deal and 1962 was weeks after the Cuban Missile Crisis.

    This happening when external circumstances are less friendly to the incumbents, really makes the Democratic performance more remarkable – even given the House flipping.


  10. Victoriasays:
    Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 2:52 pm
    People keep underestimating the Biden presidency.

    Victoria
    Even Newt Gingrich said that.

    “Republicans must “quit underestimating” Joe Biden, the former US House speaker Newt Gingrich said, because the president is winning the fight.”

    https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/03/newt-gingrich-republicans-joe-biden-winning?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16703876437982&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fus-news%2F2022%2Fdec%2F03%2Fnewt-gingrich-republicans-joe-biden-winning

  11. Wonderful result. Dumpty has fallen down again. Who will he blame?
    My interest is in the SCOTUS. Will Biden rebalance the Court?

  12. “Victoria says:
    Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 2:52 pm
    People keep underestimating the Biden presidency.”

    Yes, but even more importantly, in my view, is that too many people have been underestimating the capacity of American voters to De-Moronise themselves and finally start voting in support (rather than against) their own interests.

  13. how come with the democrat warnock winning th run off with a increased majority did the democratsdo badly in state and kemp re elected govinor maybi people vote differently senate and state maybi warnock could have won for a state position

  14. hopifuly bidon and shumer will do somthing with this majority the democrats can not rebalince the suprime court with a judge retiring i know there pushing for john robberts to retire as chief justis the democrats have never appointed a chief justis with the republicans being in power when they have retired this is one more seat from 2018 so an other los for t ump

  15. This is a terrible result for the United States for many reasons, For one Joe Manchin’s vote is much less important now and Sinema will be the new swing voter. There is now a real risk the filibuster will be removed in the senate which would essentially give Democrats power to silence Republicans and stop debates on pieces of legislation.

    Combine the fact you have a pseudo-socialist senator in Pennsylvania. This is was perfect opportunity for Republicans to win. Yet worshiping Trump and his allies. Jan 6, and the far-rights behaviour as well as the court decision to overturn Roe. Damaged Republicans badly in these midterms.

    This should have been a republican win. Biden is unpopular nationwide and in swing states such as Georgia. Yet people can’t bring themselves to vote Republican because of Trump.

    I feel sorry for the United States. I congratulate Warnock nevertheless. But I am grateful that our politics is much less devious here in Australia.

  16. Sinema won’t ever vote to remove the filibuster. One suspects that there are other Democratic senators that feel the same way but have been keeping it to themselves, i.e. Tester in Montana.

    Warnock won in 2020 and has won by a similar margin to 2022. Whatever fillip the Democrats got out of Roe in Georgia, probably inflation or whatnot kept the winning margin to similar.

    It’s not reasonable to expect voters to look at some big picture and then vote for a dolt like Walker over a fine Senator like Warnock.

  17. Aaron: Georgia is still, for the moment, a red-leaning state, and the election was red-leaning overall (something like 51-49 in 2PP terms– it’s a bit muddled because of uncontested races and third-party candidates, since the US does not have preferential voting and so those votes are just thrown into the void). So all things being equal, you’d have expected Walker to win by about 5 percent, which is about what the other Republicans won by.

    The fact that he’s going to lose by 3 percent instead is a sign of how dismally awful his campaign was.

    Daniel: The chances of the filibuster being eliminated are zero point zero percent with Republicans controlling the House. What would be the point? (Also, Sinema is pro-filibuster.) This was a great midterm for Dems in historical terms, but let’s not kid ourselves here, their legislative agenda is still dead on arrival for the next two years. Frankly we’ll be lucky if the nutcases in the House don’t torch the economy entirely (eg by causing a sovereign default) or shut down the government.

  18. Paul,

    I think it’s a little more nuanced. It would be fair to say that Georgia IS now, definitely, a “purple” state although I would agree it’s still slightly “red leaning” and not as far advanced on the transition as Arizona.

    What I suspect is happening is “ticket splitting” where voters, particularly in the northern Atlanta suburbs (which have tipped the balance in recent elections) have been willing to vote Dem in Presidential and Senate races but still open to voting GOP in State races.

    Without a doubt, the qualities (or rather lack thereof) of these “national”candidates has been pivotal whereas it’s likely the state candidates have far less (obviously) offensive. Dems DID lose 1 House seat at the recent midterms but this was far more due to a gerrymander engineered by the GA legislature than any voter backlash.

  19. Daniel @ #73 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 3:29 pm

    This is a terrible result for the United States for many reasons, For one Joe Manchin’s vote is much less important now and Sinema will be the new swing voter. There is now a real risk the filibuster will be removed in the senate which would essentially give Democrats power to silence Republicans and stop debates on pieces of legislation.

    Nah. Republicans have chosen to be the voice of batshit crazy. They deserve to be silenced within any serious policy debate, and doing so only makes the nation stronger.

    The real problem with Dems nuking the filibuster, if they do, is that eventually the pendulum will swing back the other way and Republicans will repay the favor, and twice as ruthlessly. Because they’re just plain better at mean-spirited ruthlessness.

    Yet people can’t bring themselves to vote Republican because of Trump.

    Yes to that one though. Who’d have though that hitching your wagon to a crazy person could have electoral consequences? It’s an obvious problem, yet Republicans don’t seem too interested in fixing it.

  20. “4:56pm Warnock’s lead out to 51.3-48.7 with 99% reporting. This result means Dems hold the Senate by a 51-49 margin, with Pennsylvania (a Dem gain) the only state to change hands this cycle. But the Senate races up in 2024 are bad for the Dems, as they will be defending 23 seats to just ten Rep defences.”…

    The Democrats will do well in 2024 if Trump is the presidential candidate for the GOP. If Trump is sent packing by the GOP, he may run as the leader of a new MAGA party, and in that case the Democrats will also do well. The Democrats may do badly in 2024 if the Republicans get rid of Trump and Trump agrees to just shut up and go away.

    What’s the most likely scenario?

  21. Alpo

    Trump is going to be found to be a traitor. Even if the repugs are stupid enough to nominate him, he will not win the presidency.

    I expect illness, or an escape to middle east for him.

  22. If any other sensible Republican had been the candidate it’s likely they would have won – possibly without the runoff.

    But Trump wanted Walker.

    So the republicans lost a senate seat because over 200k Kemp voters didn’t vote for Walker in November,

    It’s arguable that the GOP lost the two GA Senate seats in the January 2021 runoff because of Trump spouting his “stop the steal” and anti mail ballots nonsense.

    Brad. Raffensperger saw the early figures of who was sending in mail in ballots ans whee in GA they were from and told Trump to shut up else the GOP would lose the seats. Trump kept opening his mouth and a good number of GOP voters simply didn’t vote because they thought their votes wouldn’t be counted.

  23. Biden has made his position on the filibuster clear, it’s not going anywhere. Same with Schumer.

    What matters is a 51-49 Senate will make the Dem’s life easier when it comes to judicial appointments.

    Sinema and Manchin, for all the whining, haven’t really blocked anything fundamental (appointments etc – but have been a nuisance on some agenda items) – when Manchin was recently on the wrong end of the stick, Biden brought him to heel. Fetterman in PA might be closer to Sanders than Biden, but he’s not going to support legislation significantly out of whack of his electorate.

  24. jt1983

    And this 51-49 gives Manchin more room to maneuvre in the next two years – which may ultimately help the Democrats because he will have a tough job holding his West Virginia seat in 2024. Much as many Democrats aren’t very enamoured of Joe, they would likely find his Republican replacement was going to support ZERO of their policies should the Democrats still have any power in Congress or the Presidency after 2024.

  25. https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1600106032461533184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1600106034219012096%7Ctwgr%5E620da5b10478dfa129110cd90de9defba9025822%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2022%2F12%2F7%2F2140288%2F-Abbreviated-pundit-roundup-A-rainy-night-in-Georgia-yet-again

    Unpublished exit poll results show 66% of indies viewed Trump unfavorably, just 30% favorably. His unfavorable ratings rose to 69% among col+ indies & 72% among female independents. Nearly 2/3 of former & 3/5 of latter described GOP as “extreme”-far more than said same re Dems

    Ds comfortably carried female & college+ independents in every Senate race w/an exit poll. They won about 60% of college+ independents in MI/PA/WI/AZ Gov races & AZ/PA/NH/NC Senate races.

  26. It’s really important to remember in 2016, Trump was perceived by voters as a moderate, even with some out there views.

    Once in office, this view shifted dramatically – this is a not insignificant reason why Trump won independents in 2016, but lost them (albeit narrowly) in 2020. Also why Trump won white college grads in 2016, where Biden won them (was highly unusual for a Dem, but they’re now an increasingly important part of the Dem coalition).

  27. Trump picked Herschel Walker basically because he knew him for his turn on the “Celebrity Apprentice”.
    It didn’t matter that Walker couldn’t string together a coherent sentence, he had Trump’s backing in primary and therefore won. Almost any other republican candidate would have won the contest, so the GOP can chalk up another loss to Trump.

  28. Not entirely surprising, given she was pretty much guaranteed to face a primary challenge as a Democrat, with a high chance of losing.

    Presumably she will run for re-election as an Independent and basically dare the Democrats to endorse a candidate to run against her.

  29. Alpo:

    The Democrats will do well in 2024 if Trump is the presidential candidate for the GOP. If Trump is sent packing by the GOP, he may run as the leader of a new MAGA party, and in that case the Democrats will also do well. The Democrats may do badly in 2024 if the Republicans get rid of Trump and Trump agrees to just shut up and go away.

    What’s the most likely scenario?

    Assuming we’re talking about the Senate, 2024 is going to be tough for the Democrats even if they’re having a good year. They have incumbents up for re-election in Ohio, Montana and West Virginia which are all Republican-leaning states that have only trended more so in the last 4 years. Their best chances for pickups are Texas and Florida, which tells you how slim those pickings are.

  30. What’s in it for Sinema? Does she fancy herself in the same mold as Bernie Sanders? She’s given up any leverage she might have had. The only thing that makes sense to me at this point is that she’s only in it for herself and sees this as a way of insulating herself from ‘tiresome’ Democrat activists. Perhaps Manchin talked her into it.

  31. Late Riser:

    This is different to both Sanders and Manchin – they both caucus with the Democrats in the Senate, Manchin remains in the party and has said he has no plans to leave.

    Her vote remains just as important as it was (if Schumer has 49 of the caucus on board for a vote, he can get either Manchin, Sinema or a moderate Republican to pass it), the main thing she might have given up is some committee chairs.

    What’s in it is for Sinema is that she was facing being primaried in which case she is out of the Senate in 2 years and her political career over (in Arizona, losing primary contenders can’t contest the election as an independent). If she builds a small base as an independent over the next two years, hopes the Republicans nominate some lunatic so moderate Republicans park their vote with her, and peels off enough voters from the Democrats rightward flank she has a slim but nonzero chance of getting back into the Senate for another 6 years.

  32. Thanks for the reply, caf. I was being cheeky with the Sanders reference. Maybe she does think she can emulate him. Regarding Manchin, I think Sinema would have been competition in negotiations with Biden/Schumer. Hence Manchin has a better position now, and did he help that along? Your description of Sinema’s tactics is pretty much the selfish vibes I got off her actions. The question for the Democrats is how to prevent Sinema taking more D votes than R votes to her banner.

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