Resolve Strategic poll and Australian Election Study (open thread)

Another poll finds the Albanese government ending the year in as strong a position as ever, plus the release of data from the Australian National University’s regular post-election survey.

The latest Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald has Labor on 42% (up three since the poll conducted after the budget in late October), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 11% (down two), One Nation on 4% (steady), the United Australia Party on 2% (up one) and independents on 8% (steady). No two-party preferred is provided, but based on preference flows in May this would have Labor’s lead approaching 60-40. The limited state breakdowns provided have it at about 57-43 in New South Wales, 62-38 in Victoria and 56-44 in Queensland.

Anthony Albanese records an approval rating of 60% (up three) with disapproval at 24% (down four), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 28% (down one) and 43% (up two). Albanese leads Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister 54-19, little changed from 53-19 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611. Further results on the poll concerning the parties’ capacity to handle various issues and other aspects of their performance are featured on the Age/Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor page.

Also out this week is the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study survey, both as a summary report and a full dataset for those with the wherewithal to use it. Among many other things, the survey found that Anthony Albanese scored better when rated on a scale from one to ten than any party leader since Kevin Rudd in 2007, whereas Scott Morrison was “the least popular major party leader in the history of the AES”, which goes back to 1987. A decline in partisan attachment going back to 2010 continued apace, with only 30% and 28% now rating themselves as Coalition and Labor partisans respectively. Supporters of the teal independents were largely “tactical Labor and Greens voters”, with only 18% of their voters having defected from the Liberals. The survey also provides further evidence for what already well understood about the Coalition’s problems with women and younger voters.

Note also the post below from Adrian Beaumont about today’s US Senate run-off election in the state of Georgia, and the ongoing coverage of the Victorian election count, where Labor seems set to match its 2018 performance in terms of lower house seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,607 comments on “Resolve Strategic poll and Australian Election Study (open thread)”

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  1. Aaron newton says:
    Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 7:18 am

    Dutton is on holidays he seems only to apeel to 2gb and sky news at this point only thing going for him sis the liberals have no other option acsept if gladis could be persuaded maybi frydenberg but desbite nickie savas best efforts to convince us he was not morrisons loil deputy and was upset about secrit ministries dought he can win in victoria with him leading the anti andrews stratigy only option is perhaps matt kean
    ____________

    Dutton goes on holiday…to sink out of the public eye?…a strategy that might see his polling numbers go up?

    “We like him better when he’s not around.”

  2. Good end of year polls for Labor and Albo. Yes, the government obviously is still in a honeymoon phase and next year will be obviously tougher on many fronts, but assuming things don’t fall apart in a Rudd/Gillard type way over the next 2 years or so, I think Albanese and co can win a 2nd term in 2025. It will be hard for the Liberals to get back those seats they lost to the Teals, like Kooyong and Wentworth.

  3. Glenn Kirschner @glennkirschner2·

    NY jury CONVICTS Trump Organization on all counts. Two important takeaways: 1. this likely spells the end of Trump Org, and 2. this increases the odds of a NY prosecution of Trump himself, given that the prosecution argued “Evidence shows Trump
    ‘explicitly’ OK’d tax fraud.”

  4. Paul Kelly, per Cronus:

    “ The environment favoured Labor 51-19 per cent and global warming favoured Labor 50-18 per cent.”

    … and 30 per cent of respondents to the Australian Election Survey saw no difference between Labor and the Coalition on the environment and global warming.

  7. This is no surprise after seeing photos of US cops showing their Qanon hand signals( a la Jenny Morrison) during the ‘Black lives matter’ protests:

    “BREAKING: Cops disgustingly heckle Jan. 6th hero former Officer Michael Fanone during his Congressional Gold Medal ceremony, calling him a “piece of shit” and “mockingly” calling him a “great fucking hero” while sarcastically clapping.”
    -twitter

  9. ‘Oliver Sutton says:
    Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 8:23 am

    Paul Kelly, per Cronus:

    “ The environment favoured Labor 51-19 per cent and global warming favoured Labor 50-18 per cent.”

    … and 30 per cent of respondents to the Australian Electoral Survey saw no difference between Labor and the Coalition on the environment and global warming.’
    =================================
    Yep. They had idiotically believed nine years of vicious and nasty Greens’ lies about ‘same old, same old’.

  12. WarBore: “They had idiotically believed nine years of vicious and nasty Greens’ lies about ‘same old, same old’.”

    Something is happening here
    But you don’t know what it is
    Do you, Mr. Jones?

  13. Oliver Sutton

    So, we are all now supposed to forget the Greens’ Big Lie endlessly repeated. You cannot confront the lie, or its implications, so you deflect.

    The Voice Busters’ attempt to delete nine years of lies is the same as their attempt to delete the Voice: disgusting and smarmy power politics by a group that cannot even get itself to admit that it is a political party.
    As you were.

  14. Thanks BK

    Rupert Murdoch will be deposed next week as part of Dominion Voting Systems’ $US1.6 billion ($2.4 billion) defamation suit against Fox News over the media company’s reports on a conspiracy theory about the 2020 presidential election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/rupert-murdoch-to-appear-in-deposition-over-2020-us-election-conspiracy-theories-20221206-p5c42b.html
    ____________

    I read “Rupert Murdoch will be deposed next week…” and was filled with joy! We could be rid of the Murdoch stain! (Yes, I know there are offspring who are just as bad.)

    Then I realised it means a court deposition, i.e. giving evidence.

    Some disappointment set in.

    Then I remembered the magnitude of the lawsuit brought against News, which, if granted, might involve the Murdochs having to sell part or all of their media empire. Joy rising again!

  15. Rat Salad bringing the lulz to the Shaun Carney opinion piece:

    Rat Salad

    Q:) Labor will only ever get one Scott Morrison, so what’s its next trick?
    A:) One Peter Dutton

    😆

  18. Cronus says:
    Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 7:58 am

    Another intractable challenge for the Coalition from Kelly’s article. A classic Gordian Knot of their own making.

    “ The environment favoured Labor 51-19 per cent and global warming favoured Labor 50-18 per cent. The more important the environment becomes, the more the Liberal Party’s dismal showing is a liability.
    This is a dilemma for the Coalition because its own voters don’t see global warning with the same seriousness as most of the community. Indeed, nearly half of all voters see global warning as “extremely important” yet less than one in four Coalition voters register this view. It means the Coalition is trapped on global warming between majority sentiment and its voting loyalists.
    ____________

    I rejoice in all political misfortunes that befall the Coalition. They are not interested in benefiting the broad sweep of Australians, just helping their mates get richer.

    I feel compelled, however, to offer this wet blanket: the Coalition and the meeja will jump on any mis-step by Labor.

    Even minor problems in govt will be blown out of all proportion into a manufactured “crisis” which will “test” Albo’s leadership.

    The Coalition and their meeja mates will do anything – including lie – to make this govt a one term one.

    I’m sure Albo and his colleagues fully understand this. It is one of the few benefits of the way the 2019 election was lost.

    Eternal vigilance required!

  23. Trump has always been a crime factory. He finally is going to be held accountable. Taking the confidential documents, Jan 6, just to name a few.

    January and February are going to be lit. I still believe that his crimes will still manage to shock us.

  24. Poor Ronaldo: his substitute scores a hat-trick. I think it’s time for him to hang up his boots, leave the game with decorum, not petulance, to live the life of Riley on his fortune of circa $US500m.

  25. Victoria @ #73 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 9:22 am

    Trump has always been a crime factory. He finally is going to be held accountable. Taking the confidential documents, Jan 6, just to name a few.

    January and February are going to be lit. I still believe that his crimes will still manage to shock us.

    Glenn Kirschner just said that Trump’s ‘Terminate the Constitution’ social media post, was evidence for the Special Prosecutor to prove Seditious Conspiracy.

  26. Sort of out of the blue, Indonesia has turned ultra-conservative. I do however endorse the prohibition of carnal relations outside of marriage, though enforcement may be problematic – morality police à la Iran?

  28. C@t

    Admittedly I have been carrying on about Trump being a traitor for years.

    So I am expecting it to be found that he conspired with a foreign entity against the US. I may be way off the mark, but that has been my feeling from the get go.

  29. Covid is currently running rampant in my part of the world.

    I went to guns and roses concert other night. So far I feel okay. I need to stay well until the 13th, cos I am due to see one of my fav bands, the Killers….

    Fingers crossed,

  30. Meanwhile Elon Musk has well and truly decided to aid and abet the right wingers.

    I doubt it is going to work out the way he thinks. Thank goodness.

  31. Oliver Sutton @ #54 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 8:23 am

    … and 30 per cent of respondents to the Australian Election Survey saw no difference between Labor and the Coalition on the environment and global warming.

    Well, I wouldn’t go so far as to say “no difference”. However, the difference between policies that ensure 2 degrees and polices that ensure 3 degrees is a bit academic when we have amply demonstrated that we can’t even cope with less than 1.5 degrees.

    As one of the countries most vulnerable to climate catastrophes, Australia is screwed with the policies of either of the major parties.

    Who knew David Bowie would be so prophetic …

    https://youtu.be/jlFdJdeUZgw

  32. On the Indonesian bonking outside marriage law, it doesn’t come in for 3 years and there is this condition…

    Unmarried couples can only be prosecuted if they’re reported by a spouse, parents or their children.

    In 2019, about 16.11 million tourists visited Indonesia, and all visitors would be subject to the new code when it is enacted.

    Professor Butt said the code would apply everywhere in Indonesia, including Bali.

    “It would be applicable to tourists,” he said.

    “It is unlikely, in practice, to affect tourists travelling to Indonesia, provided that no such complaints are made to Indonesian police.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-07/indonesia-bans-sex-outside-marriage-explained-criminal-code/101738418

  33. According to the witness list, Kathryn Campbell is back in front of the royal commission today. Mr Greggery, now armed with a lot more information, should have a field day!

  34. Palmer Report \@PalmerReport

    Trump Organization has just been found guilty on all counts. This clears the way for the Manhattan DA to indict Donald Trump and other individuals. Explains why he just hired a prosecutor to ramp things up. This is in addition to DOJ, Fulton County, and more. Goodbye Trump!

    Trump and his precious brand name are now and forever linked to crime. Trump and his business will be associated with fraud and cheating. It is a big win for the Manhattan DA. It won’t mean the end of Trump’s business, but it does open the door to a potentially larger criminal probe of the former president and his adult kids.

    This is a very bad day for Trump and his organization

  36. A seat in the room for SfM’s appearance will be the hottest ticket in town. Popcorn will be sold out withing a 10km radius……………………………….. Must confess I have never ever ever liked popcorn , would prefer polystyrene.

  37. Re Snappy Tom @8:45.

    ” I feel compelled, however, to offer this wet blanket: the Coalition and the meeja will jump on any mis-step by Labor.

    Even minor problems in govt will be blown out of all proportion into a manufactured “crisis” which will “test” Albo’s leadership.”

    I’m pretty sure that’s the plan – Dutton following the Abbott playbook. Unrelenting negativity. No quarter, certainly no bipartisanship. Demonise opponents and their policies. Work closely with Newscorp and favoured “journalists” to Jump on any mis-steps or scandals, even manufacture them if need be. I content that the whole ‘pink batts’ saga was an example of the latter. And there never was a “carbon tax”.

  38. @sproket:

    “ On the Indonesian bonking outside marriage law, it doesn’t come in for 3 years and there is this condition…

    Unmarried couples can only be prosecuted if they’re reported by a spouse, parents or their children.

    In 2019, about 16.11 million tourists visited Indonesia, and all visitors would be subject to the new code when it is enacted.

    Professor Butt said the code would apply everywhere in Indonesia, including Bali.

    “It would be applicable to tourists,” he said.

    “It is unlikely, in practice, to affect tourists travelling to Indonesia, provided that no such complaints are made to Indonesian police.”

    ________

    So … say an Australian married couple separate and some years later – divorce still not finalised (imagine a bitter property or custody dispute – the usual nightmare) – one of them takes their new partner to Bali and the former partner (still legally their spouse) dobbs them into the Indonesian authorities out of spite. … What then?

  39. Trump mocked over latest guilty ruling: There’s going to be ‘a lot of ketchup on the walls’ at Mar-a-Lago”

    While testifying before the House Select Committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack and the attempt to overthrow the 2020 election, the former aide to chief of staff Mark Meadows revealed Donald Trump had a tendency to throw his food.

    “There was ketchup dripping down the wall and a shattered porcelain plate on the floor,” Hutchinson testified, noting that White House staff nearby said the president was “extremely angry” after Bill Barr’s interview saying there was no voter fraud.

    Such was the case on Tuesday when the ex-president’s company was found guilty on 17 charges involving tax fraud and sketchy business practices. The word “ketchup” started trending among liberal Twitter while the “Trump Organization” was trending nationally.

  40. Quarter-final match-ups:

    Here’s how the final eight looks (all Sydney times):

    Saturday: Croatia v Brazil (2am), Netherlands v Argentina (6am)
Sunday: Morocco v Portugal (2am), England v France (6am)

  41. Mavis says:
    Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 9:31 am
    Sort of out of the blue, Indonesia has turned ultra-conservative. I do however endorse the prohibition of carnal relations outside of marriage, though enforcement may be problematic – morality police à la Iran?
    ——————————–
    you surely jest.
    And did you misspell ‘carnal’ and meant camel?


  42. So … say an Australian married couple separate and some years later – divorce still not finalised (imagine a bitter property or custody dispute – the usual nightmare) – one of them takes their new partner to Bali and the former partner (still legally their spouse) dobbs them into the Indonesian authorities out of spite. … What then?

    Seem to be a law to inflame family disputes all round. Other then pissing off the target to what end, hard to prove the sex happened.

  44. “At a joint press conference after the talks, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said the increased military cooperation would result in an “increased rotational presence of US forces in Australia. That includes rotations of bomber task forces, fighters, and future rotations of US Navy and US Army capabilities that will also expand our logistics and sustainment cooperation,” he said. That will deepen our inter-operability and create more agile and resilient capabilities.

    “We’ll also continue to find ways to further integrate our defence industrial bases in the years ahead. In what could be a significant shift in regional relations, Australia and the US also signalled they are looking to increase their military cooperation with Japan.”

    Good job Bludgers, we’re being listened to (chuckles).

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-07/penny-wong-and-richard-marles-ausmin/101735480

  45. Morning all. Thanks for the morning roundup BK. After six months Albo’s popularity does not reflect a honeymoon. It is because he is starting to deliver on promises.

    I don’t see that changing any time soon either, with more reforms in progress, and inquiries starting to dig into the fetid stench left by the Morrison government.

    The only cloud on the horizon is interest rates, and that is beyond Chalmers’ direct control. I agree with Michael Pascoe that the RBA deserves some criticism here, first delaying two months too long before rising rates (why?), then rising too fast, and now continuing to rise yesterday even as there are signs the economy is slowing. Memo to Dr Lowe: a recession is worse than high inflation.

    Not only are most of the current causes of inflation external and not altered by higher interest rates, but the harm from higher rates does not always reduce spending. For the 1/3 of households with a mortgage higher interest rates works very effectively to reduce spending. For the 1/3 of households that are home owners without mortgages it might increase returns on their investments, and so they spend more.

    The RBA board needs renewal, not just Philip Lowe. Ten years of coalition control has seen it overloaded with right wing thinkers who are from business (1 in the Menzies Institute) and not enough with Treasury experience. They know how to run a company, not how to run a country.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/12/07/michael-pascoe-rba-mistake/

  46. frednk

    It is a good thing there is no corruption or political conflict in Indonesia. Otherwise that sort of law could really be used to stitch up ones enemies. 😐

  48. Interesting speculation:

    Igor Sushko
    @igorsushko
    ·
    Nov 30
    #Russia: Alleged details of Putin’s planned #MartialLaw are coming out. Slated for early next year, could be as early as January. Everyone digitally color-coded:
    Red: Confined to home
    Yellow: Confined to region
    Green: Confined to country
    Red turns to Yellow during work hours.

  49. BK
    I’ve cleared the day for Ms Campbell.
    When I first saw her at Senate estimates I started hoping I’d see a time when she was called to account.
    Another one was Mr McBurney of the building watchdog. Sadly it may be all that has happened to him is his job was abolished.

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