Month: October 2022

Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor in New South Wales

A new pollster on the block produces a set of New South Wales state two-party numbers that agree with last month’s Newspoll.

The Financial Review yesterday had a poll of New South Wales state voting intention from Freshwater Strategy, which according to The Australian has been founded by four recently departed directors from CT Group, the famed Liberal-aligned pollster associated with Lynton Crosby and Mark Textor.
The poll credits Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46 after exclusion of the undecided. A more detailed two-party result has Labor on 47%, the Coalition on 40%, “would not place either” on 8% (as voters can do under the state’s optional preferential voting system) and “firmly undecided” on 6%. The primary votes are Coalition 36%, Labor 37%, Greens 11%, independents 5%, Shooters 1% and others 11%.

Dominic Perrotet was credited with an approval rating of 37% and a disapproval rating of 35%, with 20% opting for a response of neutral, while Labor’s Chris Minns was on 26% approval, 15% disapproval and 24% neutral. A preferred premier question had Minns leading 41-38. Respondents were also asked about the federal leaders, with results of 50% approval, 26% disapproval and 21% neutral for Anthony Albanese and 33% approval, 34% disapproval and 25% neutral for Peter Dutton. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1042.

Essential Research: Albanese approval and tax cuts (open thread)

Albanese’s strong ratings remain effectively unchanged; attitudes towards stage three tax cuts finely balanced.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the monthly question on Anthony Albanese’s leadership, recording 58% approval (down one) and 26% disapproval (up one). Respondents were also asked what appear to have been all-or-nothing questions on stage three tax cuts, finding 53-47 in favour of sticking with them rather than breaking an election promise regardless of the economic situation, and 52-48 against a more general proposition as to whether break election promises should ever be broken. However, the split in favour of keeping the tax cuts was 70-30 in favour among those who felt they were most likely to benefit compared with 60-40 for least likely. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1122 – there should be a good deal more from it when the full report is published later today.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Victorian election guide

Introducing the Poll Bludger’s guide to the November 26 Victorian state election.

The Poll Bludger’s guide to the November 26 Victorian state election is now open for business, featuring comprehensive detail on all 88 lower house seats – their histories, boundaries, demographics, redistribution effects and main candidates, together with interactive booth results maps from 2018 and tables and charts summarising past election results – and an overview page. All that’s missing is a guide to the Legislative Council, which will follow in due course. If this is of any value to you, a reward for the extensive effort involved in the form of a donation would be much appreciated – these can be made through the “become a supporter” button at the top of this page.

To summarise the situation, I repaste below the “redistribution and electoral arithmetic” section from the overview page:

The parliament has ended its term with the same party representation in the lower house that it started with, as an otherwise highly eventful four years passed with no by-elections or party members moving to the cross bench. The results at the 2018 election were 55 seats for Labor, 21 for the Liberals and six for the Nationals, three for the Greens, and three for independents. However, the election will see no fewer than thirteen of Labor’s lower house members retire, and while few of these are in seats that represent strong opportunities for the Liberals, they will complicate Labor’s efforts to defend Richmond and Albert Park from the Greens and Bellarine from an independent. The four seats where Liberals are retiring include highly marginal Hastings and historically blue-ribbon Kew, where the departure of Tim Smith has probably done the Liberal cause more good than harm in the face of the teal independent threat.

After two terms and eight years on the same set of electoral boundaries, the election will give effect to an extensive redistribution that has abolished three seats in Melbourne’s stagnant eastern suburbs and created new ones in the city’s west, outer north, and outer south-east. While two seats held by Labor and one held by the Liberals have been replaced by corresponding numbers of notional Labor and Liberal seats, the changes are to Labor’s advantage in that two of the new seats are highly safe for Labor while the abolished Labor-held seat of Mount Waverley is a normally Liberal-leaning marginal. The redistribution has also produced notional Labor margins in four Liberal-held seats (Hastings, Caulfield, Ripon and Pakenham, the latter having replaced Gembrook), while sending only two seats the other way (Bayswater and Bass).

Another complication to the arithmetic arises from the retirement of Russell Northe, one of the chamber’s three independents. Northe’s Latrobe Valley seat of Morwell gave Labor 54.0% of the two-party preferred vote in 2018 against the Nationals, such that it can be treated as a notional Labor seat in his absence. Adding this to its net gains and losses from the redistribution, Labor goes into the election with a notional 58 seats compared with the 55 it won in 2018, while the Liberals are down from 21 to 19. The Nationals remain on six, each on margins safer than any enjoyed by the Liberals, while Mildura and Shepparton are held by independents who will re-contest their seats.

On the assumption of a uniform swing and no change to the status quo in terms of minor parties and independents, a Coalition majority government would require a daunting gain of 20 seats and a swing of 10.4%. While the Greens could make inroads into the Labor majority, with the inner-city seats of Richmond, Northcote and perhaps Albert Park rated as strong possibilities, a uniform two-party swing to the Coalition of nearly 10% would still be needed to cut deeply enough into Labor’s numbers to reduce it to a minority.

The federal election result has also inspired a wave of candidates hoping to follow in the footsteps of the teal independents, many drawing support from the same local networks and the fundraising efforts of Climate 200. As at the federal election though, where teal independents cost the Liberals the Melbourne seats of Kooyong and Goldstein, the risk here is largely on the Liberal side of the ledger. Seats where independent campaigns have enjoyed substantial media attention include Kew, Brighton and the country seat of South-West Coast, which respectively correspond largely or entirely with Kooyong, Goldstein and Wannon, the latter also having produced a strong result for an independent at the federal election. However, well-organised independent campaigns have also emerged in the Labor-held seats of Hawthorn and Bellarine.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)

A new federal poll finds Labor maintaining a commanding lead, with most undecided on the question of stage three tax cuts.

Newspoll may be spinning on its wheels, but the Age/Herald has come through with the third Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention since the election, three weeks after the last. This one has Labor on 39% (steady), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 12% (up two), One Nation on 5% (down one), the United Australia Party on 3% (up one) and independents on 9% (up one). Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish its own two-party numbers, but a fun new tool from Armarium Interreta allows you to punch in primary vote numbers and get a two-party result based on preference flows from the May election, which suggests a Labor lead of about 58-42.

Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is 60% (steady) compared with 25% for poor and very poor (up one), and he leads 53-18 on preferred prime minister (53-19 last time). Peter Dutton has a positive rating of 30% (up two) and a negative rating of 41% (up one). The poll also had questions on the budget and tax, the most interesting of which finds 34% supporting and 13% opposing the repeal of the stage three tax cuts, with fully 53% “undecided/neutral”, and on the Optus security breach. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.

Miscellany: Roy Morgan, Coalition age effects, voter turnout and more

With no sign of Newspoll, Roy Morgan finds a widening of its two-party lead after a series of relatively narrow results.

We’re now five weeks without a Newspoll, which is unfortunate from my perspective as it’s time for a new post and I’ve been too busy working on my Victorian election guide (which should be up later this week) to have put much thought into how one might look. There’s always the regular Roy Morgan two-party figures from its weekly update video, which have lately found it moving to the rest of the pack by recording growth in Labor’s leads, the latest result putting it at 55-45 after a 54.5-45.5 result the previous week.

Elsewhere:

• Shaun Ratcliff at YouGov offers findings from its Australian Cooperative Election Survey, conducted during the May election campaign, that appear to suggest the age effect for the Coalition primary vote doesn’t amount to much up to the age of about 40, but accelerates dramatically thereafter. The implication that support for the Coalition is heavily concentrated among the very oldest voters would not appear to bode well for them in the short to medium term.

• Antony Green and Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation both sound off against Victoria’s retention of group voting tickets for the Legislative Council, making the state the last bastion of preference harvesting following recent reforms in Western Australia.

• The turnout for the recent state by-election for North West Central in Western Australia, which has the state’s second highest indigenous population share, came in at just 47.7%, or 5335 out of an enrolment of 11,189. The Nationals have blamed the Western Australian Electoral Commission for insufficient advertising. Merome Beard of the Nationals won the seat with 3071 votes after preferences (60.5%) to 2008 for Liberal candidate Kim Baston (39.5%).

• Rod Culleton, who ran at the May election as the lead Senate candidate of the Great Australian Party in Western Australia, has been charged with providing false information on his nomination form. This included a declaration that he was not an undischarged bankrupt when the National Personal Insolvency Index identified him as such, although Culleton insists this was not the case. Culleton was elected as a One Nation Senator in Western Australia in 2016 but subsequently disqualified after being declared bankrupt by the Federal Court.

Taxing times (open thread)

A new poll finds respondents nearly twice as likely to support than oppose repealing stage three tax cuts.

The Australia Institute has a poll out which offers the interesting finding that 41% favour the repeal of the stage three tax cuts, with only 22% on board and the remainder unsure. Forty-six per cent understood the cuts to most favour high income earners, compared with 18% for middle income earners and 8% for low income earners. Asked whether “adapting economic policy to suit the changing circumstances even if that means breaking an election promise” rated higher than “keeping an election promise regardless of how economic circumstances have changed”, 61% favoured the former and 27% the latter. The poll was conducted September 6 to 9 from a sample of 1409.

The Guardian reports on the fortnightly poll from Essential Research, which continues to hold off from voting intention and does not include leadership ratings on this occasion, and is mostly devoted to questions on incidental political relevance regarding the Optus security breach. Fifty-one per cent would support stronger curbs on information collected by private companies and 47% expressed concern about governments collecting their personal information. The full report should be along later today.

UPDATE: Full Essential Research report here.

Brazilian first round presidential election live

Live coverage from Monday morning of today’s Brazilian election, which Lula could win outright. Also: UK Labour seizes a huge lead after the budget, US and Israeli polls.

Live Commentary

9:59am Tuesday The final presidential result is Lula over Bolsonaro by 48.4-43.2. I think Lula would have won by about 53-47 if Brazil used preferential voting, so he’s still the clear favourite to win the October 30 runoff.

In the legislature, Bolsonaro’s Liberal party won 99 of the 513 Chamber of Deputies seats (up 66), while Lula’s alliance won 80 seats (up 11). There are many parties represented, but it looks as if right-wing parties have a majority. The Liberals won eight of the 27 Senate seats up for election, and two other right-wing parties won eight seats (there are a total of 81 senators). So both chambers will have right-wing majorities.

12:52pm With 99.5% counted, Lula’s lead hits five points, 48.3-43.3.

12:01pm With 98.5% counted, Lula leads by 48.1-43.5, a 4.6% margin. He will be a heavy favourite to win the October 30 runoff, but Bolsonaro has performed much better than polls expected.

10:48am With 92.6% counted, Lula leads Bolsonaro by 47.4-44.1, a 3.3% margin. The five pre-election polls gave Lula an eight to 16 point first round margin over Bolsonaro. They don’t look good.

10:34am There are big swings against Bolsonaro in the big urban states, like the federal district, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. But his vote is holding up much better in rural states like Amazonas, Para and Tocantis. Bolsonaro won the 2018 runoff by a 55.1-44.9 margin.

10:25am With 82.6% counted, Lula leads by 46.5-44.8, a 1.7% margin.

10:05am With 70% counted, Lula takes the lead by 45.7-45.5.

10am Bolsonaro’s lead drops to 46.0-45.2 with 60.3% reporting. But it looks likely that polls have understated Bolsonaro. He’s likely to lose this round when all votes are counted, but the margin could be close, and the runoff will be a contest. Shades of Trump in the US 2020 election?

9:34am Bolsonaro’s lead keeps shrinking as more votes are counted. He’s down to a 2.2% margin (46.7-44.5) with 46% counted.

9:21am With 35.5% counted, Bolsonaro’s lead drops to 3.5% nationally. 89% has been counted in Espirito Santo, and Bolsonaro leads there by 52-40. In 2018, he won this state by 63.1-36.9

9:11am With 31% counted, Bolsonaro still leads by 47.6-43.6 nationally. But he appears to be underperforming badly in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, both of which he won by 68.0-32.0 in 2018.

9:01am While there’s a big swing against Bolsonaro in the federal district, there doesn’t seem to be in Tocantins. With 65% counted here, Lula is winning by 48.9-45.3. Bolsonaro lost this state in the 2018 runoff 51.0-49.0.

8:51am With 16.2% reporting, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 47.9-43.4 nationally. In the federal district, with over 82% in, his lead is 52-37, down from 70-30 in 2018.

8:21am With 4.9% of the overall vote counted, Bolsonaro leads by 48.8-42.1. He’s still winning the federal district 52-36 with 52% in.

8:08am Over 42% has been counted in the federal district, with Bolsonaro winning by 52-36. But in the 2018 runoff, he won the federal district by 70-30.

7:51am With 1.5% counted, Bolsonaro leads by 48.5-41.6 for Lula. I believe the current results are unrepresentative, and that Lula will improve when more results from the northeastern states report.

7:17am Monday The Guardian has results of the presidential election. So far just 0.14% has been counted

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The first round of the Brazilian presidential election occurs today. If nobody wins at least 50%, a runoff between the top two first round candidates will be held October 30. The major contenders are the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula), who was president from 2003 to 2010.

Brazil has four time zones, but voting hours are synchronised, so that polls in trailing time zones open and close an hour earlier local time than polls in leading time zones. All polls close at 7am Monday AEDT (note: not AEST). As votes are recorded electronically, counting should be fast. There is no pre-poll or postal voting; all votes must be cast on election day.

The final five Brazilian polls, mostly taken since Thursday’s debate, have had Lula leading Bolsonaro by eight to 16 points in the first round. If the contest goes to the October 30 runoff, the polls give Lula a nine to 17 point lead. Voting is compulsory for those aged between 18 and 70.

Brazilian polls include undecided. Lula is currently in the high 40s in the first round in most polls, but undecided is at 1-9%. If undecided were excluded, as most polls in Australia do, three of the last five polls would give Lula just over the 50% needed to win outright in the first round and avoid a runoff.

As well as the presidential election, there are legislative elections today. All 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies will be elected by proportional representation, and 27 of the 81 senators (one per state) will be elected by first past the post. Many parties are currently represented.

In the last three years, left-wing candidates have won presidential elections in Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Bolivia and Peru. A win in Brazil would cement the left’s dominance in South America even as they struggle in Europe.

UK Labour seizes huge lead after ‘horror’ budget

On September 23, new UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng delivered a budget that would greatly reduce taxes to the benefit of the already well-off. Rather than cut spending, the tax cuts would be funded by borrowing. Owing to this borrowing, the UK pound plummeted on the financial markets.

Financial market turmoil continued last week. There have been nine UK national polls taken since Tuesday, and six give Labour leads of 17 to 21 points over the Conservatives, while three give Labour a lead of over 30 points. Prior to the budget, Labour’s lead was high single to low double digits. But the next UK general election is not due until late 2024.

US Democrats’ gains stall, Netanyahu could win again in Israel

The US midterm elections will be held November 8. I wrote for The Conversation Friday that Democratic chances in both houses of Congress have stalled recently, with Democrats’ chances of retaining the Senate in the FiveThirtyEight forecaast down from 71% in mid-September to 68% now.

The Israeli election is on November 1, after a government formed to keep out Benjamin Netanyahu collapsed. A religious and right-wing coalition that would be led by Netanyahu’s Likud is currently polling at 59-62 of the 120 Knesset seats in the last four polls, with the current governing parties at a combined 54-57. The Joint Arab List split in two, and one of the new parties is unlikely to make the 3.25% threshold to win seats; this helps Netanyahu.