Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor in New South Wales

A new pollster on the block produces a set of New South Wales state two-party numbers that agree with last month’s Newspoll.

The Financial Review yesterday had a poll of New South Wales state voting intention from Freshwater Strategy, which according to The Australian has been founded by four recently departed directors from CT Group, the famed Liberal-aligned pollster associated with Lynton Crosby and Mark Textor.
The poll credits Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46 after exclusion of the undecided. A more detailed two-party result has Labor on 47%, the Coalition on 40%, “would not place either” on 8% (as voters can do under the state’s optional preferential voting system) and “firmly undecided” on 6%. The primary votes are Coalition 36%, Labor 37%, Greens 11%, independents 5%, Shooters 1% and others 11%.

Dominic Perrotet was credited with an approval rating of 37% and a disapproval rating of 35%, with 20% opting for a response of neutral, while Labor’s Chris Minns was on 26% approval, 15% disapproval and 24% neutral. A preferred premier question had Minns leading 41-38. Respondents were also asked about the federal leaders, with results of 50% approval, 26% disapproval and 21% neutral for Anthony Albanese and 33% approval, 34% disapproval and 25% neutral for Peter Dutton. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1042.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

75 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor in New South Wales”

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  1. Two election related bills have just passed State Parliament and awaiting assent.
    iVote already gone.

    Electoral Legislation Amendment Bill 2022
    – Lots of stuff about electoral funding.
    – Logos on ballot papers from 1st October 2024.
    – Introduction of some adaptability regarding the “6 metre rule”.
    – Some processing improvements for postal votes.
    – Prepoll to commence on Saturday, the week before the election. Was Monday 13th March, will now be Saturday 18th March.

    Electoral Legislation Amendment Bill (No 2) 2022

    Introduced recently and passed very quickly. Postal votes moving to the postal voting provider/s used at the Federal Election and the ability to open overseas voting centres. Couple of smaller things too.

  2. well asfour is certaily a better addition then gregg donnelly gihad dib should run but his out of educationspokesman ddesbitee his background we can allways reliyon elliott to cause som trouble egged on buy fordum and the morrison faction ray williams and others wwonder if williams will be forced out he is close to allex hawke

  3. a r says:
    Friday, October 21, 2022 at 11:25 am

    Upnorth – Lately accused of Witchcraft, Heresy and Cartel like behaviour @ #1609 Friday, October 21st, 2022 – 9:55 am

    Poor planning on energy transition and this is the end result.

    And Russia starting a war and cutting off their energy supply has nothing to do with it. It’s all those dastardly renewables.
    Don’t try to verbal me again cobber – you tried it last night and made a fool of yourself.

  4. this poast is dealing with nsw the distraction of mihayliuk i dont think can save the liberals even keating i dont think he has much suport these days and him lining up with packer i dont think would impres many labor voters him saying packer is standing up against developers this is just to get his caseno up

  5. the mihayliuk story did not last long desbite the medias efforts wonder what happend to tray williams aligations of ceruption in the liberal partty or the fights betwen elliot and kean egged on buy 2gb

  6. Rats leaving the sinking ship…

    David Elliott to quit: ‘I won’t knife a mate’
    Veteran Liberal MP and Transport Minister David Elliott has announced he will quit state politics to avoid a messy preselection battle that would force him to ‘knife a mate’.

    In the DT

  7. soso transport minister david elliot going out of politics for uselis back bencher Rayy williams is not a good look only notable contrabution he has made as allex hawkes right hand man in state parliament along with upper house mps mclaron jones and farlow it seems the hawke morrison faction will back facelis meen over a senyor minister hower im sure the cabenit is glad theloose unit is retiring hawke must still run his faction wonder if right will chalinge williams again now perrotit can appoint his right hand man damian tuderhope to transport

  8. yes i dont think the libbs will be to sad but the media using natulie ward to damage matt kean is interesting the bad report alix smith says ward needs a lower house seat to save herc corear to insure her future how ever the slight problim that she forget to inform us of is ward has four years left on her upper house spot wonder if hazard will go and lynch from labor

  9. @Aaron Lynch is not quitting. It’s all he’s got. Anyway I think his nomination is done already.

    @Aaron what’s the deal with Alex Smith from the Herald? Seems to run with Liberal talking pieces and analysis of internal Liberal issues often.

  10. Great news re Elliott. He can F off back to the AHA or Clubs NSW.

    Fake tough guy who let the train Union throwback monster him. All it took was a go at the Union money in the Fed Court and the Union retreats.

  11. yes agree elliot claimed to be a tough guy but whenn given somthing harder then just talking about crime gave the rale union went on strike he bent over back wards to give them evrything then when they did not honer they deal hhe went on a rant and blamed perottit and his alies for taking away his authority not even allex hawke and morrison could save him ein stead keeping ray williams

  12. he had a swipe at hiis centre right faction lead buy hawke ore finding ray williams a seat but not him as the right will get carselhill i think most people are glad his going

  13. well ranslide elliott is a good thing but all these ministers going just seems to prove thegovernment is headed foor defeat if the liberals thought they could win theyonly option for them in opposition is matt kean taking over hazard and stokes were acspected but elliot was a factional deal allex hawke his factrion leader chose to save ray williams

  14. can any one explain whiy allex hawke is throwing his support behind Ray williams to stay in parliament but not david elliott i know he was a ddisaster but it seems strange a senyor minister will be dumpt in faver of a back bencher sacked from cabenit buy gladys in 2019 maybi his mor loil to hawke then elliott reminds me of thefowler move

  15. its not a good look for perottet with all his ministers going how ever not convinced buy his and keans links that they wanted to save elliott and perottet had a fight with his faction i think was a excuse to attack there factional rival alex hawke for saving ray williams williams acused the right of ceruption earlier this year and is close to hawke

  16. no mp in the hawke group in state politicks have actualy payed tribute to elliott which maybi the morrison faction were as sick of him as evry one else in his cabenit was

  17. yes wakehurst could now be a teel targit as could pitwater with stokes ggone would not be suprised if it a solid labor victory suprised no one in david elliots faction actualy wished him well

  18. ironick elliott is attacking noel mccoy over abortion because it was elliotts faction under morrison who gave us cathryn deaes hopeing he could exploit trans gender and elliott is going because allex hakwe could not find him a safe seat plus 2gb atempted to use the abortion debate to bring down gladys which failed with some of morrison faction involved scott farlow

  19. maybi this is ongoing from the 2009 split when hawke left his hard right faction and formed the centre right with morrison and elliott and others in nsw state and federal parliament perottit hard right wanted williams gone in 2019 to run for carsilhill now his brother and gfinance minister tuderhope organized numbvers for noel mccoy

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