The Financial Review yesterday had a poll of New South Wales state voting intention from Freshwater Strategy, which according to The Australian has been founded by four recently departed directors from CT Group, the famed Liberal-aligned pollster associated with Lynton Crosby and Mark Textor.
The poll credits Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46 after exclusion of the undecided. A more detailed two-party result has Labor on 47%, the Coalition on 40%, “would not place either” on 8% (as voters can do under the state’s optional preferential voting system) and “firmly undecided” on 6%. The primary votes are Coalition 36%, Labor 37%, Greens 11%, independents 5%, Shooters 1% and others 11%.
Dominic Perrotet was credited with an approval rating of 37% and a disapproval rating of 35%, with 20% opting for a response of neutral, while Labor’s Chris Minns was on 26% approval, 15% disapproval and 24% neutral. A preferred premier question had Minns leading 41-38. Respondents were also asked about the federal leaders, with results of 50% approval, 26% disapproval and 21% neutral for Anthony Albanese and 33% approval, 34% disapproval and 25% neutral for Peter Dutton. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1042.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of New South Wales state politics. The general discussion thread is here.
Thanks William. Not sure if two identical polls is a good or bad thing?
Perrottet must be in trouble of Minns is ahead on preferred premier, despite Minns comparatively low approval rating.
This is a stellar result for NSW Labor considering how Labor has been “de-platformed” by the Sydney Mainstream Media. Which is almost Pravda like in its support for the Coalition govt.
Pravda was a non-election entity, but it was less reliable out in the non-Russian areas. In March 1987 at a kiosk in Baku the edition of Pravda being sold was 6 weeks old. Not even the rank rubbish of the SMH has yet fallen to such irrelevance.
Perrottet has been in power for a year and shows no substance. Likely that the two-faced policy of Gladys on Sydney lockdowns (light for the well off, harsh for those in western Sydney) will sink Perrottet’s ship well and good. No chance of Libs picking up enough seats to cushion the losses there.
In the end the narrowness of the 2019 win by the soon to be de-eulogised Saint Gladys will ensure SMH eats humble pie.
I’d expect some large to very large swings in Liberal and National held seats – Liberals will focus entirely on holding the few marginals they think they can. It will probably be seats that fly under the radar where Labor can pick up a few surprises and get them to or near enough to a Majority.
It’s harder to win from behind with OPV but it also can inflate seat margins – a relatively small increase in the PV combined with a lower exhaustion rate and increased capture of preferences, can reduce anything upto say 8%, pretty qucikly.
This voter in the Epping electorate will not be voting for the current Premier*. Not forgotten is the fact that while their postal address is Beecroft, their LGA (unlike the great majority of Beecroft dwellers) is in Parramatta LGA which was one of the LGAs under the strict lockdown. The difficulties for an elderly person, living alone, with the only family member also locked down in the Liverpool LGA were considerable, only alleviated by some neighbourly support.
* not that I was going to vote for him anyway, but will, as the election draws closer, be happy to remind others in the same area of what 2021 was like.
“firmly undecided”
That’s a new one.
I do not necessarily believe any poll so I am not going to get too excited about it. But, NSW Labor, under Minns, is clearly putting some good strides in down the final straight. Whether it can get to the line first is debatable still. The media will ramp up the attacks in due course (que Feb 2023) when peoples mind focus on the election.
Given there are posters in the Victorian election thread saying the polls of 57-60% 2pp (ALP v LNP) is going to result in a minority ALP government, I’m sure this 54/46 (ALP v LNP) repeated result translates into a firm victory for the LNP in NSW.
You know who you are. Trip. Trap. Trip. Trap.
Given the mainstream media’s (especially The Sydney Morning Herald) strong support of the Coalition Government Chris Minns does have a mountain to climb despite what the polls say. The mainstream media was almost fanatical in their support for Berejiklian and while their enthusiasm for Perrottet is less, they still do their level best to bury any positive announcements and policy from Minns and Labor (and the Greens for that matter) , unless there is somehow a loose connection to Obeid which they will then run hard on. Minns better have cleaned out the closet because the vultures will be circling for anything to prop up Perrottet.
Very interesting results…. I hope that the trend continues, and I do hope that it will translate into an ALP win in NSW. If the Coalition loses NSW (being left only with Tasmania), the Liberal party in particular will be shaken to the ground….
It looks like that we are getting into an important twist in Australian history…. Time will tell.
More evidence that the NSW Coalition government is on the way out. I’m not so sure this has much to do with State Labor, though the party has made some efforts to clean itself up from the bad old days, and Minns is both a cleanskin and has some cut through. But the main reason, I’d suggest, is that the Coalition is fast closing in on 12 years in power, and most governments start to reach their use-by date by that stage. On balance (and I say this as an unashamed Labor partisan), they haven’t been such a bad government (broadly competent, have built things etc), but the electoral tide runs out on all governments eventually, and with the government now on to its fourth premier, that looks to be what’s happening in NSW.
It’s also worth noting that NSW is, historically at least, more demographically likely to return Labor governments, given that the ALP can normally rely on swathes of seats in places like Newcastle, Wollongong and South-West Sydney (one reason why the catastrophic 2011 election still saw Labor with 20 seats, whereas a similar result in Queensland in 2012 saw Labor with only 7). From 1941 until 2011, Labor held office for 52 of those 7- years, and it could be that next year’s election will simply see a return to that historical mean.
With Andrews likely to be re-elected in Victoria next month, it looks likely that we’ll have wall-to-wall Labor governments across the mainland until late 2024 (when Queensland heads to the polls, the next State election after NSW), at least – only Tasmania will still have a Tory government
Should be a Labor Government. The only reservation is that the ‘smell of death’ is not quite there. One more Government debacle should do it.
Alternatively, the Government finds new focus and discipline and….. pulls a couple of points back ……so the swing is only 4%. Result = chaos but you’d think that a minority ALP government might be put together,
I go for 70% chance of a Labor Government.
Sportsbet though has the ALP as only very slight favourites which is surely wrong
From a Victorian perspective, the difference in reporting and language in the shared daily blog between The Age and Sydney Morning Herald when talking about Victoria compared to NSW during the 2021 lockdown experienced by both states was astonishing.
Take for example when Gladys & Dan each agreed to end lockdown at the 70% double vax rate, then further ease restrictions at 80%.
The headlines for the NSW announcement would be “NSW to lead Australia out of lockdowns next month” while the exact same Victorian announcement would be described as “Dan Andrews to drag out 6th lockdown for another month”. It was just crazy.
(They weren’t exact examples but an accurate representation of the difference in daily reporting!)
So I’m not surprised at all to hear that the NSW Liberal government has the full backing not only of the Murdoch papers but the Fairfax ones too.
Very true that the media in Sydney are totally pro state Liberals, Minns doesn’t get a look in really unless there’s some connection to Obeid and Tripodi that still lingers in state Labor.
So despite the polls, Chris Minns will have to campaign his arse off in the next 6 months, he needs to raise his profile because a lot of voters still don’t know who he is.
And somehow losing the capable Mick Veitch from a winnable spot on the Upper House ticket and getting instead the useless Cameron Murphy, that’s not a good look in my opinion.
I don’t get any feeling that the electorate has the baseball bats out for Perrottet. All my rusted-on LNP friends are still rusted-on to the LNP. But it’s hard to argue with these polls. Given the large number of Green, SFF and Independent members in the current house, I’m wondering how useful this 2PP polling result is in predicting the shape of the new house. You’d have to think a majority LNP government is absolutely no chance on these numbers, but what are the seats the ALP would need to win to get to majority government themselves? There is very little low-hanging fruit-only 4 seats are on margins of less than 5.0%. I think a minority government of some sort is still a big chance.
While I’d be very happy to see the back of Perrottet, I’m not exactly brimming with confidence that a NSW Labor government would make much difference to the state. They’ve already rejected the opportunity to reform stamp duty, the biggest state revenue source. Their infrastructure policy is just statements of intent, with no costs or timelines. How will they do better on health or education? How will they deal with ballooning state debt?
I don’t understand how anyone in NSW could still support the LNP or question that Labor could do better.
In any other state you could take a random sample of people to form the Govt of NSW and you can be sure they will be less corrupt and more competent than the LNP have been. The only thing I can think of holding back the NSW ALP is the fact they are from NSW.
The State should probably be put under the control of an external administrator.
People forget that opv benefits the party with the highest primary vote in a given seat.. alp 36 lnp 37 here .. could be even or Labor slightly in front. On this poll. Now it is hard to win from behind happened in only 3 seats .two for alp and 1 gr these three seats
seats had very high green votes. The opv bonus either goes to Labor or is non existent. So in every seat Labor outpolls the libs they win.
One thing an incoming ALP government could certainly do is remove the financial penalty the port of Newcastle must pay, if more than a limited number of containers are shipped through the port. In effect, eliminating Newcastle as a competitive container port. This was done back in Mike Baird’s day, to inflate the sale price for Port Kembla. So much for LNP privatising to improve economic efficiency. Australia’s ports have enough problems with very low crane rates compared to international norms, they don’t need this kind of ridiculous anti-competitive barrier as well.
I also don’t think there will be much practical difference if the ALP wins. Maybe a little more pro public sector but basically just a mild shift in emphasis.
One interesting thing would be ICAC, where the chair is John Hatzistergos. He will know all the dodgy operators and aspects of the NSW ALP so they’d better watch out.
Newcastle Moderate
Interesting perspective from outside of Sydney. Within Sydney, the baseball bats are not only out, but sharp metal spikes are being fixed to them by anyone that relies on the trains. They’ve been too bad and affecting too many people for too long. And that lived experience will affect a lot more votes than the media.
“Evan says:
Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 5:38 pm
Very true that the media in Sydney are totally pro state Liberals, Minns doesn’t get a look in really unless there’s some connection to Obeid and Tripodi that still lingers in state Labor.”
Here in Qld, on the other hand, Crisafulli (the leader of the LNP opposition) is all over the news, every single day….
Bias? Who mentioned bias?
I am coming to the view that hopefully election results Australia wide along with polls such as this and in Victoria means the Australian public have woken up to media and their bias (driven by Costello, Stokes and Murdoch, all senior Liberal Party figures Chairing media conglomerates)
Fingers crossed
Then you have the end event of trickle down economics in the UK – being presented as Truss not the ideology
The agenda of austerity delivering confidence and that confidence trickling down aligned to the most effective form of regulation being self regulation have run their course
Hi Alpo,
Bias is an extraordinary thing.
During the federal campaign all the media were interested in were Albo’s alleged Gaffes.
Not a word about Scomo’s regular word salads, press conference walk outs, massive rorts, shameless pork barrelling and appalling governance generally, let alone his addressing the collective media as “Mr Speaker” 3 times in one interview, for example.
Discussion of Scomo’s multiple ministries has disappeared without a trace.
Albo won, Scomo lost, yet the collective wisdom in the MSM was Albo had a shocker. Go figure.
Why is the NSW media so enamoured with Gladys – she resigned in disgrace a year ago?
In Victoria the MSM ignores consistent polling of 57-60% in favour of Dan’s ALP yet clamours about minority government being the only probable result.
It is truly bizarre.
Balance does not mean 50% of coverage to both sides. There are more than 2 parties for starters! It means assessing what each has to say in a balanced way.
Fortunately no-one reads just one print edition newspaper these days.
rant over! G’night.
Evan.. I agree that Minns will need to work hard.. I see a 6% plus swing washing through.. with the corresponding change in who gains the opv advantage….. shifting to Labor. Re the upper house selection Cameron Murphy is not a liability. The main thing wrong with the alp ticket was that the left decided to select 3 people who aligned with one sub faction. I handed out for Cameron and was happy to do so. This result will help to make the left more inclusive. I don’t know Mr Veitch and cast no aspersions on his competence. As I watched to alp conference it appeared that Labor was ready for government
Yes i think labor can winn if any thing the attacks on albanese and labor actualy increasedsupport how ever he did not have obead to deal with interesting if lyle shellton can get in the upper house dought fred nykles wife can get there she has no public porofile and themany in the cristian right especialy yunger people havve moved from nyle to shellton and the cristian lobey
Again – as we saw before SA and the Federal Election, a LOT of people concerned about the pendulum.
In both of those cases, the swing in many of the flipping seats was significantly larger swings than the state-wide or national swing.
I expect, if Labor does win in NSW, which I think is a solid possibility at this moment, the key target seats, especially where there’s demographic shifts to Labor, should swing much harder than the state-wide swing.
Labor’s decision to revoke recognition of Jerusalem as capital of Israel could work in Minns (and Andrews) favour in some suburban seats. By March 2023 it will probably be forgotten by most voters though.
“middle aged balding white man says:
Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 11:41 pm
Hi Alpo,
Bias is an extraordinary thing.
During the federal campaign all the media were interested in were Albo’s alleged Gaffes.
Not a word about Scomo’s regular word salads, press conference walk outs, massive rorts, shameless pork barrelling and appalling governance generally, let alone his addressing the collective media as “Mr Speaker” 3 times in one interview, for example.
Discussion of Scomo’s multiple ministries has disappeared without a trace.
Albo won, Scomo lost, yet the collective wisdom in the MSM was Albo had a shocker. Go figure.
Why is the NSW media so enamoured with Gladys – she resigned in disgrace a year ago?
In Victoria the MSM ignores consistent polling of 57-60% in favour of Dan’s ALP yet clamours about minority government being the only probable result.
It is truly bizarre.
Balance does not mean 50% of coverage to both sides. There are more than 2 parties for starters! It means assessing what each has to say in a balanced way.
Fortunately no-one reads just one print edition newspaper these days.”
Yes, I fully agree!…. But my impression is that the mainstream media this time around are truly losing propaganda power. That was a dream that many of us pursued: rendering the MSM virtually irrelevant in their blatant attempt to manipulate the readers/viewers/listeners. We are certainly not fully there yet, but my impression (on the ground of local election results and especially the result of the last federal election) is that we are advancing quite rapidly and effectively.
Soon after the results of the 2019 federal election I was so upset that it came natural to me to start a personal internet campaign against Voter Moronism. I define a Voting Moron as somebody who votes against his/her own interests. The objective of the manipulative media is to Moronise as many voters as possible, so they vote for the Media preferred party even if that means voting against their own interests.
Fortunately, De-Moronisation is possible. An incompetent Coalition government does help, but what is even more useful is to get the people to think harder and be more critical. This is easier when we face serious challenges (bushfires, floods, pandemics, international economic downturn, and now even a war in Ukraine that has international effects), but once the people have got the idea and have built a shield against media manipulation, then the task of convincing them to vote in support of their own interests becomes easier from then on.
I am looking forward to seeing the result of the coming Vic state election, but for me an even stronger test will be next year NSW state election.
As people have said most voters are yet to pay attention to Minns or knwo who is he. IMO he is a very good speaker and presents well, isn’t afraid of going on RWNJ Sydney radio and Sky News to push Labor’s case. Have a look on YouTube at some of his interview he is impressive.
Minns is even on the record suggesting that he supports the legalisation of cannabis as per Canada and some US states – https://www.reddit.com/r/ausents/comments/g5ropj/nsw_labor_leadership_aspirant_chris_minns_mp/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
One can only hope!
“simm0888 says:
Wednesday, October 19, 2022 at 9:50 am
Labor’s decision to revoke recognition of Jerusalem as capital of Israel could work in Minns (and Andrews) favour in some suburban seats. By March 2023 it will probably be forgotten by most voters though.”
But beyond the local electoral effects of that initiative, let’s see the decision itself. For many years Australia adopted a neutral stance between Israel and the Palestinians, admitting their differences and the need for a negotiated solution to their decades-long conflict. This included wisely leaving the very difficult issue of Jerusalem unresolved, and therefore recognising Tel Aviv as the official capital of Israel.
What the Coalition did, by recognising the arbitrary shift of the capital of Israel to Jerusalem, was to arbitrarily break the status quo and go the full Monty in support of one side against the other. That was stupid and irresponsible. The Albo ALP government is just returning to sanity, that’s all. Sanity is always better than stupidity in any circumstance.
i dought fredd niles wife will replace him hopefuly we can have no cristian conservative in the upper house for the first time in 40 years if lyle shelton ran he would be more likely to get up fredds wife has no publick profile and shelton has a big folllowing amung niles traditional suporters so hopopefuly the nile era is over
on nsw upper house looks like labor could win a majority in lower house shooters annd fishers in upper house greens maybi family first think niles plans for his wife will struggle the fred nile party split witha majority of members wanting lile shelton to replace him he will probaly run for family first splitting the cristian vote plus latham wants to recon test his seat desbite four years left on his term
Neither Family First nor the Christian Democrats are registered to contest the NSW election. Party registrations closed in March 2022. A party running a ticket with no party name above the line is wasting its time and money. In 2011 Pauline Hanson polled 2.4% as an Independent and John Hatton 1.3%. If that’s all that can be polled with well known names at the top of the ticket, I doubt anyone else can do better.
Would agree nile or hanson could do it thankfuly the nile era is over so wonder how the upper house will turn out the greens will probaly get another mp up the shoters maybi one nation labor should do okay thinks the government wont though
Been noticing Dominic Perrottet has been hanging around Labor figures like Prime Minister Albanese and today even former prime minister Paul Keating, more than he did with his own current and former federal Liberal party leaders
The whole Mick Veitch v Cameron Murphy issue on the ALP Upper House ticket has its roots in Rose Jackson of the hard left taking the soft left Lynda Voltz’s upper house seat. That upset the subfactional balance in the left, and this result is merely the returning of that seat to the soft left who on numbers were entitled to it. Hopefully it doesn’t lead to any further factional issues for Labor in the run up to the election.
I don’t find Chris Minns particularly impressive, and I don’t think he cuts through in the media. I still think Jodi was a better leader and she would have been a fantastic contrast to the corrupt liberals in the post Gladys era.
I’m in the seat of Coogee, one of two Labor picked up last election. At this point in 2018 Marjorie O’Neill (the successful Labor candidate) was already out campaigning. This time round the Liberals don’t even have a candidate. It appears that the Liberals are more focused on sandbagging what they already hold rather than gaining anything substantial, which is dangerous for a minority government.
yes that may be true but anthony diadam off the soft left got an upper house seat in 2019 the soft left dont have mucgh credability they still have paul lynch in liverpool who has not dun much his been there since 1995 dont they have any tallent in liverpool federaly they oly have ann stanley ifvietch was so good though the liberals seem upset buy his removal which i assume mean that hewas not overly effecgtive think murphy will be better
speaking of labors upper house ticket his not up for election this time but the number one mp i want gone is gregg donnely an extremely conservative mp backed buy the shoppies union who is very anti choice only seems interested in attacking trans gender and is abbout as extreme as nile and davies he seems to have little labor values and as health comity chairman allowed mark latham to attack his coleague anna wotson how ever due to the power off the shoppies he is still there after he attacked the gender clinick dont know whiy labor dong force him to resign he does good work on health butwould be better on the cros bench also primrose has been there a while wonder who will represent libs in coogie
Shorely the shoppies have someone better then donnely hopefuly his forced out in the next term would be good if the right coould take on the shoppies they have a habit of sending uselis mps like sen deborah oniel in se
i think jodie was a better leader and had more cut through it seems the right wing unions especially hsu and shoppies forced mckay out desbite desbite her caukis backing becaus minns would do what the unions want he seems to stand for little but has given trthe unions evry thing and seems to be controled buy girad hase all his policies at the conference were union proposals im a labor suporter but the rail union is realy asisting the government and when wagunions acsept low wages in vicktoria and qld bbut cause caos in nsw it seems political
nswactualy has a higher wages cap then victoria 3.5 vs 1.5 yet the unions arnt striking at all in vick due to lower wages just like the awu abandond its push for a gas reserve when labor followibnd the liberals policy of not anoying the gass cartell
the factions in labor are not helpful minns gets rid off labors most effective mp adam searle but keeps talintles mps such as donnely wonder if ray williams will be forced out the liberal candadates should be interesting they have no candadtates in coogie paramatta and other marginal seats think the upper house president will go
the banks town mp has quit labor will probaly run as a independent but even if the mayor was close to obead in the day wouldnt people become close to power brockers to further there corears like gartith wards control of the south coast he is still under police investergation and the media does not report on that or sedoty
pllus the only evidence of ceruption in cantebry banks ttown icac was able to find was darol mcgriwe and liberal party councilors not asfour
Not ready to govern’: Labor MP Tania Mihailuk quits party
Bankstown Labor MP and frontbencher Tania Mihailuk has sensationally quit the party, insisting that its decision to allow her arch nemesis mayor Khal Asfour to run for parliament is proof that the ALP is still plagued by corruption and is not ready to govern.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/not-ready-to-govern-labor-mp-tania-mihailuk-quits-party-20221020-p5brku.html
I wonder whether Ms Mihailuk could actually win as an independent. At any rate Labor can’t afford to put in a ‘blow in’ anymore so this is double trouble for the NSW ALP.
if chal asfour was so bad whiy did mihayliuk praise him in her maiden speech in 2011no wonder the liberals want her to stay theshe only seems to critercize klabor attacking environmentalist and is a faverite off sky news no dought shill be proped up buy 2gb egnoring barilarows eleged ceruption and sidotey and garith ward
if asfour was dummopt who could replace maybi they can bring back secord
Mihailuk hates Asfour. She has always been a good hater. It’s personal. Local. She is no loss to Labor. Whether Asfour is a good addition for Labor is debatable.
Jihad Dib is a good MP and should contest Bankstown. He will win.
As for your comment Aaron Newton about Labor losing its best MP. Please.
And as for the comment about Jodi. The polls are saying the opposite. Anyway, long way to go, but Jodi and Michael Daley were never the answer.