Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)

A look at preference flow data from the 2019 and 2022 elections, and the latest on looming by-elections in the Northern Territory, Tasmania and (sort of) Western Australia.

Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.

Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.

State and territory by-election:

• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.

• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.

• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,594 comments on “Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)”

Comments Page 24 of 32
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  1. Griff @ #1123 Monday, August 8th, 2022 – 6:50 pm

    Sir Henry Parkes @ Monday, August 8, 2022 at 5:59 pm

    Somewhat analogous to the situation with Jürgen Habermas. Same age.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/06/german-thinkers-war-of-words-over-ukraine-exposes-generational-divide

    When such people stop aligning with one’s one own thoughts, it is challenging. In my case, I wonder whether the people that have experienced WW2 have a different perspective to younger generations.

    On Germany, Germans, and Chomsky and Ukraine, here’s Obama era Chomsky (2016), pre-invasion obviously, talking to young Germans about the critical locus that Germany has played in the current east west divide, and what he sees as America’s betrayal of trust on NATO, and the screws being insistently tightened on Russia.

    Jump to about 40:00

    https://youtu.be/h0qdbsE3Jqo

  2. I don’t necessarily agree Mavis that it’s a fait a compli that they are in a death spiral. The MSM will revive them and try to give them oxygen. Labor has little presence in the regions. Labor might scrap there and as much as it may pain some on this blog they could be reliant on greens/shooters support as weird as that sounds.

  3. ”
    Sir Henry Parkessays:
    Monday, August 8, 2022 at 5:59 pm
    A bit late to the topic, but I just watched that interview with Noam Chomsky, posted yesterday. Rather, I watched as much of it as I could.
    It’s another sad example of a once-great leftwing intellectual going stupid over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Poor Noam, like John Pilger, is so used to seeing America and “the West” as the bad guys, that he has to twist reality and logic into making Russia the victim, and the West as the nasties.
    Chomsky does say Russia is guilty of aggression, but also says it was provoked by NATO arming and training the Ukrainian army.
    Really? Did Vladimir Putin fear that Ukraine was going to invade Russia? Did he imagine that all 28 member states of NATO were planning the same thing?
    I wonder why Ukraine was so eager to get arms from NATO, and if possible, to join? Was it anything to do with Vladimir Putin’s incursions into Donbas and Crimea? What about Putin’s statements that Ukraine was not a legitimate country and that Russians and Ukrainians were one people?
    I guess the Ukrainians were just being paranoid.
    According to Chomsky, we in the west are being manipulated by disinformation put out by the media and compliant liberal intellectuals. He didn’t have much to say about the blatant propaganda coverage of the Russian media, calling the Ukrainians Nazis and telling lies about “genocide” of ethnic Russians.
    I once shook hands with Noam Chomsky, when he visited Australia years ago. I told him how much I admired his work.
    I didn’t think he would ever become an apologist for a dictator trying to restore imperial glories.
    ”

    As Tony Abbott once said “Shit happens”.
    Now you know that it is not right wingers who can be bad but also Left liberals.

  4. wranslide at 6.59 pm

    Why is there “a need for a dedicated trade presence” at state level? External trade is a federal power. When did the first federal minister for trade start work? Mr Charles Kingston on 1 Jan 1901. When did the first dedicated NSW minister for trade and investment start work? Mr Andrew Stoner (Nat) on 4 Apr 2011, over 110 years later, under the administration of Mr Fatty O’Barrell. So NSW Labor has never seen a need for the nonsensical position of a state minister for external trade. Hopefully they have the guts to declare that all these trade promotion roles are spurious, and fund more basic services instead.

    Further details about the utter uselessness of trade delegations, i.e. junkets, by state politicians in the 20th century (e.g. to Japan) are in John Menadue’s memoir, Things You Learn Along the Way (1999).

  5. Dr Doolittle they have already said they are abolishing the Senior Commissioner roles. I do not think they are proposing abolishing the trade and investment networks. I would like to see if the networks actually deliver for the people of NSW. If they do then I’ve no issue in keeping them but agree these STIC roles should go. I understand that neither the QLD or Victorian Labor Govt thinks it is a worthless investment either. But I could be wrong.

  6. “It’s the tactic of finding divisive issues, campaigning on them and providing ostensibly simple solutions to complex questions.”

    Butler said it was not immediately clear how Labor could combat left-wing populism but restoring public confidence in political institutions was key.
    ___________________________
    It’s almost as if Butler believes that the ALP has never engaged in any populism.

  10. Nath a disappointed and defeated candidate will often look for an answer as to why they lost and perhaps not necessarily find the answer lies in their performance in the electorate. It’s normal I guess. Candidates disease.

  11. Ch10 News saying Dom Perottet discussed another role for David Elliot, if he agreed to leave Parliament.

    The role? Governor of NSW.

  13. wranslide:

    Monday, August 8, 2022 at 7:45 pm

    [‘I don’t necessarily agree Mavis that it’s a fact a compli that they are in a death spiral.’]

    I’m basing my prediction of the dying days of the Perottet government on the demise of the Morrison government, where the electorate had had enough of nepotism, and more than likely,
    widespread corruption. I also think that the power of the right-wing media has significantly diminished. I note that the combined Tory numbers in LA are 45; the rest, 48. And the member for Kiama has been suspended. So on the numbers, there’s at least a theoretical chance that the government could fall but even if it doesn’t, I can’t see the electorate returning it next March.

  15. sprocket_ :

    Monday, August 8, 2022 at 8:10 pm

    [‘Ch10 News saying Dom Perottet discussed another role for David Elliot, if he agreed to leave Parliament.

    The role? Governor of NSW.’]

    The only positive out of that is if Elliott had accepted Perotett’s
    alleged kind offer, we’d be a step further to becoming a republic.

  17. Three Brisbane seats won by the Greens on gross misrepresentations about airport noise?
    How IS airport noise going?
    Down, down, down?
    Or no difference at all?

  18. “I understand a former passionate contributor here has passed away.

    Vale Frank Calabrese.”

    I hadn’t heard that and I haven’t seen him in years, but in the day he was just as much a character in branch meetings as he was here. Vale Frank.

  19. It’s one of the issues faced by candidates for major parties v. indies.

    Candidates for major parties are told they can’t promise anything unless it’s been signed off by the party, because if their party wins, they’ll have to deliver on it.*

    Indies can promise anything, and if they don’t deliver it, they can blame whoever’s in government.

    *Well, it’s certainly something that Labor candidates are told, and their campaigns are monitored to ensure it doesn’t happen…

  20. z
    Saving the Planet was possibly the biggest non deliverable ever promised by any Australian political leader ever. Bandt was top of the pops with that one.
    But then ‘Stopping extinctions by 2030’ was a good one.
    It must have roped in a few of the astroturfed Extinction Rebellion kiddies.
    Which reminds me.
    What happened to Greta Whatsername?

  21. ItzaDream at 7.45 pm, Griff at 7.59, Sir Henry Parkes at 5.59 pm et. al.

    What Chomsky said in that 2016 German interview about NATO expansion is quite uncontroversial.

    Documents showing how Gorbachev was promised in early 1990 NATO would not expand east are at:

    https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

    Most diplomats, who conventionally are far from radical, know what occurred. E.g. K. Mahbubani at:

    https://johnmenadue.com/asia-say-no-to-nato-the-pacific-has-no-need-of-the-destructive-militaristic-culture-of-the-atlantic-alliance/

    That’s an essay 13 months ago by the former Singaporean Ambassador to the UN. Singapore has been, historically, one of the strongest US allies in SE Asia, but Mahbubani’s view is similar to Chomsky’s.

    Mahbubani is in fact too generous to NATO historically, saying “it did a brilliant job in the Cold War, deterring Soviet expansion into Europe”. It did nothing of the sort. Stalin occupied eastern Europe when defeating Nazi Germany. After Stalin, the USSR withdrew from half of Austria in 1955 when Austria declared its neutrality. The only context in which Soviet military planners envisaged moving into western Europe (not eastern Europe, which they invaded in 1956 in Hungary and in 1968 in Czechoslovakia) was if a world war had already begun. But even Mahbubani thinks little of NATO now.

    See also this interview with Fiona Hill, an English Russian expert who is a senior adviser in the US:

    https://ip-quarterly.com/en/one-mans-war-one-mans-choice

    She came to public attention as an expert witness during the Trump impeachment show. She knows a lot about Russia and US policy toward Russia. She once sat next to Putin at a dinner. He would not drink water, he was so paranoid about being poisoned. While she disputes that NATO expansion was the main cause of Putin’s war, she says it was definitely a factor. Specifically, she said (in late March):

    “Just to be clear, I think the 2008 offer of NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia was a strategic blunder. I don’t think it should have ever been on the table. It was not achievable at that specific juncture for all kinds of reasons and there was a lot of opposition from Germany, France, and other countries. They should have pushed back and not allowed the issue to be brought forward at the NATO 2008 Bucharest meeting.” (In other words, as a US adviser she says Germany should have stood up more effectively and thus avoided any ambiguity about whether Ukraine would join NATO.)

    It was at an adjacent meeting that, in the words of one balanced assessment, “Putin ‘few into a rage’ and warned that ‘if Ukraine joins NATO it will do so without Crimea and the eastern regions. It will simply fall apart’ [obviously, by implication, because of Russian military force].”

    Source: https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057/s41311-020-00235-7.pdf (p 384, lines 5 to 7)

    That doesn’t mean Putin’s terrible invasion of Ukraine was inevitable, just there’s much background.

  22. “That doesn’t mean Putin’s terrible invasion of Ukraine was inevitable, just there’s much background.”

    Ukraine should have been welcomed into the EU, and not even considered for NATO. But guns are much more important than money and doing the right thing is never going to trump greed, not for China, not for the US, not for Russia.

  23. Visiting Fremantle for the first time tomorrow on the train. Spending a full day. I don’t suppose William (or anyone else) can suggest a couple of good eating places and anything outside usual places to take a look at.

  24. nathsays:
    Monday, August 8, 2022 at 7:58 pm

    “It’s the tactic of finding divisive issues, campaigning on them and providing ostensibly simple solutions to complex questions.”

    Butler said it was not immediately clear how Labor could combat left-wing populism but restoring public confidence in political institutions was key.
    ___________________________
    It’s almost as if Butler believes that the ALP has never engaged in any populism.

    Her point has nothing to do with populism.

    It’s about campaigning on issues where there is no federal responsibility.

    The federal Greens like to make noises about issues that are State responsibilities.

  29. “Visiting Fremantle for the first time tomorrow on the train. Spending a full day. I don’t suppose William (or anyone else) can suggest a couple of good eating places and anything outside usual places to take a look at.”

    Kalis’s for fish and chips by the water. Sail and Anchor nice pub. Gage Roads Brewing down in the harbor near the Maritime Museum comfy for a drink and light lunch and is pretty close to the train station..

  30. WeWantPaul at 8.58 pm re Ukraine, Turkey and the EU

    In fact, the EU was not interested in Ukrainian membership for a very long time. In 2002 the Italian politician Romano Prodi, who was then head of the European Commission, said that “Ukraine has as much chance of joining the EU as New Zealand”, i.e. none whatsoever.

    Why? Because of Turkey, which became a candidate (i.e. possible) EU member in 1999. It would have been hard to include Ukraine and exclude Turkey, just because it’s a muslim state. Of course Turkey is not (after 23 years) anywhere near meeting the criteria for EU membership, but if Turkey helps to mediate a tolerable end to Putin’s war, then Turkey may resuscitate its claim for EU membership.

    This will not be an outcome pleasantly received in Berlin or Paris. They preferred to have Turkey and Ukraine as “neighbourhood”, i.e. bordering, countries, not as full members. Turkey’s population is now slightly higher than Germany’s, so, if Turkey eventually joins the EU, then Turkey will elect the most representatives to the European Parliament, although the Parliament has little political power.

    On Turkey now see: https://www.ft.com/content/6a9b7b72-8056-4d38-884e-9325efb45bc1

    And: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/turkeys-goals-russia-ukraine-war

  32. I lived in Terri Butler’s seat for many years and now live in Brisbane. The Greens have always been strong in these seats and got just a bit stronger this time around because of the general pro left swing. Plus Terri Butler was not a particularly active local member. More generally, Queenslanders just don’t seem to like Labor at a Federal level.

    One of these days I’d like to see a losing politician say ‘I got beat fair and square’. Of course, it’s always the meedya or lying opponents or ignorant voters or whatever.


  33. Dr Doolittle says:
    Monday, August 8, 2022 at 8:56 pm
    ..
    What Chomsky said in that 2016 German interview about NATO expansion is quite uncontroversial.
    ..

    NATO expanded because people wanted to join, what was becoming a dated institution. Putin is trying to expand using force, Putin’s actions justify the the actions of those recently joined, and encouraging others to do so, invigorating NATO.

    There is no moral equivalent, no matter how many obscure references you uncover to try and justify Putin’s behavior.

  35. Hi all, we are in Bogata ,Colombia for our sons wedding . yesterday they swore in a new President , a former rebel leader and it was interesting to see that the old long term conservatives are using the same argument of he’s to far left, probably a communist , will raise taxes and cant run the economy. just like Australia the born to rule furious they are not in power and buy the look of the city and economy its a good thing . people are the same the world over..

  36. Frednk @ #1183 Monday, August 8th, 2022 – 10:02 pm


    Dr Doolittle says:
    Monday, August 8, 2022 at 8:56 pm
    ..
    What Chomsky said in that 2016 German interview about NATO expansion is quite uncontroversial.
    ..

    NATO expanded because people wanted to join, what was becoming a dated institution. Putin is trying to expand using force, Putin’s actions justify the the actions of those recently joined, and encouraging others to do so, invigorating NATO.

    There is no moral equivalent, no matter how many obscure references you uncover to try and justify Putin’s behavior.

    +1

  45. Why does anyone try to justify Putins war.
    This is Russia war they chose to have, and it is Putin’s delusions that have got them there.
    This is what happens when a large power has no democratic or independent institutions anymore.

  46. Nicko @ #1195 Monday, August 8th, 2022 – 10:16 pm

    Why does anyone try to justify Putins war.
    This is Russia war they choose to have, and it is Putin’s delusions that have got them there.
    This is what happens when a large power has no democratic or independent institutions anymore.

    Yes, it seems antithetical to logical reasoning from an assessment of what’s right in front of our bloody eyes!

  47. Spence @ #1173 Monday, August 8th, 2022 – 7:19 pm

    Visiting Fremantle for the first time tomorrow on the train. Spending a full day. I don’t suppose William (or anyone else) can suggest a couple of good eating places and anything outside usual places to take a look at.

    Depends what you are after but here is a few suggestions (no responsibility taken for a poor experience)
    Nieuw Ruin- eclectic wine list, mod Australian food. opens 4pm
    Madalenas- seafood bar, bit exy but cool spot. catch the blue cat to the very south end of South Tce. opens 4pm. next door is a mex joint that is ok too.
    For a cheap lunch High on 55 does tasty Australian Vietnamese food.
    Pasta Addiction serves up cheap fresh pasta for mostly for uni students and the owners are real locals and up for a chat.
    There a bunch of Italian places in the heart of the city on South Tce which are ok, Sandrinos and Portarosa being a couple.
    Newly opened is Gage Roads Brew Bar right on the harbor, haven’t been there but will give you the feel of the port.
    You can have a drink on the beach at Bathers Beach Bar if it’s not pissing down,
    nearby is the Shipwrecks Museum and and a gallery that is open occasionally showing local artists.
    Other than that, wander around you’ll find something that takes your fancy.

  48. ” don’t know who said this but 4 hours ago someone on Sky News said: ‘Albanese has done bugger all as PM’. ”

    Ahhhh C@t…. they dont watch the news, they ARE the news. 🙂

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