Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)

A look at preference flow data from the 2019 and 2022 elections, and the latest on looming by-elections in the Northern Territory, Tasmania and (sort of) Western Australia.

Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.

Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.

State and territory by-election:

• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.

• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.

• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,594 comments on “Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)”

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  1. Spence, when visiting Fremantle:

    The little sub next to the Maritime Museum,
    the maritime museum – have a look at the Batavia display (Australia’s most interesting pre-colonial piracy event)
    and – fish and chips on the wharf. Overpriced but so worth it!

  2. Frednk at 10.02 pm

    Please be more careful or precise with your accusations. Nothing I said was a justification of Putin, who is the fascist in this war, rather obviously.

    For an assessment of his fascism in April by a renowned Russian socialist, Boris Kagarlitsky, see:

    https://russiandissent.substack.com/p/fascism-in-the-era-of-postmodernism?s=r

    And more recently: https://russiandissent.substack.com/p/stupidity-treason-or-business-as

    What I pointed out is that many informed observers, well beyond Chomsky, think that talking in 2008 about Ukraine joining NATO was “a strategic blunder”, as Fiona Hill put it. Early on in Putin’s war, Cat linked an interview with Dr Hill. She is a real expert on Russia, very well respected in Washington.

    Boerwar says, quoting Teddy Roosevelt, on 2 September 2001, “speak softly, and carry a big stick”. US policy regarding NATO expansion, particularly regarding Ukraine since 2008, has been the reverse.

  3. “and – fish and chips on the wharf. Overpriced but so worth it!”

    ok….things are quiet tonight so i’m up for starting a flame war. 🙂

    Opening shot.

    In Freo, Chips at Kalis’s are much nicer than the chips at Ciccerellos.

  4. Frednksays:
    Monday, August 8, 2022 at 10:02 pm

    Dr Doolittle says:
    Monday, August 8, 2022 at 8:56 pm
    ..

    What Chomsky said in that 2016 German interview about NATO expansion is quite uncontroversial.
    ..

    NATO expanded because people wanted to join, what was becoming a dated institution. Putin is trying to expand using force, Putin’s actions justify the the actions of those recently joined, and encouraging others to do so, invigorating NATO.

    There is no moral equivalent, no matter how many obscure references you uncover to try and justify Putin’s behavior.

    I don’t think anyone is suggesting that there is a moral equivalence.

    However, allowing NATO to move east despite earlier agreements not to was provocative.

  5. Dr Doolittle

    Thanks for your response to my questions last night, which I broadly agree with.

    I also see nuclear weapon proliferation as bad for Australia, since it increase the risk against us far more than it increases our deterrent. Then there is the risk of accident, terrorism etc.

    I heard a retired RN sub admiral argue a few years ago against UK replacing Trident. He said nobody sane would ever really use it. Meanwhile the cost was so high they could have doubled their fleet of conventionally armed SSNs for the same cost, which would have ben far more useful containing the Russian navy.

    On AUKUS my views are:
    – SSNs really are a major advance in capability, so I accept that part of the decision.
    – however it is increasingly clear US can do little for us this decade. Unless UK can help with initial build we should have stayed with France and negotiated to switch to their SSN Barracudas. Replacing their LEU cores is the same as what we already do at Lucas Heights so it eliminates a lot of issues.
    – I see no benefit paying the far higher price for US SSNs. They are loved by the defence types who want the shiniest toy. But French or UK ones would defend us just as well, better since we could afford more of them.
    – If as you say the diplomatic fallout is manageable we should either go with UK if they can build SSNs quickly (industry links mean UK SSN is the easiest build in ASC Adelaide). If they can’t we should switch back to France ASAP and negotiate a joint SSN build.
    – we keep buying US missiles and aircraft either way so no skin off the US nose
    – anything we don’t need to directly and urgently defend Australia vs sea or air attack (tanks, AFVs) gets ditched to pay for the things we actually need.

  6. ‘A Utah-based company well known for its jingoistic gear was fined last week after falsely claiming that all of the company’s products were made solely in the U.S. .. Lions Not Sheep is a beloved apparel company by those wanting to sport a pro-Second Amendment or pro-Trump T-shirt .. hit with a $200k fine after it was found that they were removing the “Made in China” tags and adding fake “Made in the USA” labels to hats, shirts, and other accessories’

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8/8/2115170/-Apparel-company-fined-by-FTC-for-ripping-off-Made-in-China-tags-for-fake-Made-in-USA-tag

  7. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8/8/2115146/-FL-Sen-New-Poll-Shows-A-Tied-Race-Between-Rep-Val-Demings-D-Little-Marco-R

    ‘Numbers from Progress Florida and Florida Watch show Sen. Marco Rubio and Democratic challenger Val Demings tied, each with 45% support from those polled’

    Evan Donovan
    @EvanDonovan

    Worth noting — this poll would be outside what we’ve seen.

    In February it was +9 average for Rubio between @UNFPORL and @MasonDixonPoll.

    @ppppolls had Rubio +6 in July

  8. Ali Vitali
    @alivitali

    NEW this morning, a non-reconciliation nugget: In a memo to campaigns and allies, the DCCC says internal polls from 20+ frontline & target districts shows “GOP attacks on access to abortion register as the top testing negative” since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision

    The DCCC says they’re also seeing voters of color side w/ abortion access, “regardless of personal, cultural, or religious beliefs.”

  9. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/08/qantas-asks-executives-to-volunteer-to-fill-in-as-baggage-handlers

    Let’s see, because neither full service, nor reliable or low cost comes to mind.
    I guess there’s a limit even to nationalism and children’s choirs, though strategic comms have been troublesome for some time, be it Joyce or Dixon.
    Well, that is, if you care about balanced outcomes, airline ratings, airline quality, happyroute, seat guru have been clear for years (I’ll leave a balanced score card review for another time).
    Not clear on which levels of job banding this pertains to. But seeing perms work alongside temps and casuals or labor hire, might well result in some people leaders getting shoved into a cargo hold by their teams and offshored. [Or ignore OH&S a bit with engines running.]
    Though presumably this latest approach will be more successful than grounding the fleet.
    Emirooting.
    Now about ultra-long haul …

  10. Rob Stokes, a 15-year veteran of Macquarie Street and leading moderate, says liberalism – the protection of individual freedom against mechanisms of social control – should allow the robust contest of ideas, but instead there has been a growing tendency to “muzzle dissent”.

    “All this mechanisation makes the Liberal Party more efficient, and easier to direct in the business of winning elections,” he will tell a forum on “reclaiming liberalism” held by the Blueprint Institute on Tuesday, which will also be addressed by NSW Senator Andrew Bragg and state Liberal ministers James Griffin and Natalie Ward.

    “The mobilisation of messaging and money makes for a more malleable political machine. The problem is, making the Liberal Party into an election-winning bureaucracy has transformed it into the very thing it was established to fight.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/mps-say-muzzled-debate-culture-wars-and-populism-is-killing-liberalism-20220808-p5b87j.html

    The party is devoid of policies, all they have is culture war and ideological posturing. If the party can start having adult conversations perhaps it will have broader appeal.

  11. The main reason Terri Butler lost her seat was because she was a lousy local member.
    I lived in Griffith for twenty years until a couple of years ago.
    I voted for Rudd and then Butler the first time (2014).
    Could not vote for her again.
    Too busy running the lunatic left lines on indigenous and refugee matters to worry about issues more relevant to her electorate.
    Aircraft noise really is bad in the area and candidates who are not interested in the problem will not do well until it is addressed.

  12. You’re poor, you’re African-American or Hispanic, you are on a Minimum Wage job and you can’t afford to lose your job because you need it to support your family and keep them off the street…so how would the thought of losing all that play into your thoughts?

    Or how about if you are LGBTQI+, appreciate access to Contraception, or have worked hard to get to live in a good neighbourhood and send your kids to a good school and you really don’t want to see Brown Versus Education reversed by the Supreme Court?

    Not to mention the basic fact about being able to vote for candidates who also oppose these things and to have your vote counted and count?

    Hmm. I’d know how I’d be voting in the Mid Terms too.

  13. The Young Liberals on the recent federal election.

    According to the group, the party ran a poorly-organised campaign unable to withstand the “teal” wave in its traditional heartland, failed to engage in serious reform that could help distinguish it from Labor, and lacked a cogent policy platform.

    “Our party abandoned Liberal values, ignored real community concerns, and did not do enough to win crucial voter segments – namely females and young voters,” the submission says.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/brazen-politicking-young-libs-roast-former-minister-alex-hawke-20220808-p5b87p.html

    Not doing enough to win female voters? I’m shocked the Young Libs would come out with this considering the reports of their own misogynistic and sexist behaviour in recent years. Pot meet kettle!

  14. Dr Doolittle

    Russia has pretty much been at war with the world since 907.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia
    This one started because breakaway colonies joined NATO, give me a break.
    This just happens to be the effort where the colony said no; and Europe said enough; at a time when the USA almost lost it’s democracy.

    Given Russia’s history it is no surprise the breakaway colonies wanted external protection.
    Given Russia’s history it is no surprise that Putin is popular in Russia.

    The West hating left is simple making fools of themselves. There is no justification for this war.

  15. Frednk @ #1128 Tuesday, August 9th, 2022 – 6:26 am

    Dr Doolittle

    Russia has pretty much been at war with the world since 907.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia
    This one started because breakaway colonies joined NATO, give me a break.
    This just happens to be the effort where the colony said no; and Europe said enough; at a time when the USA almost lost it’s democracy.

    Given Russia’s history it is no surprise the breakaway colonies wanted external protection.
    Given Russia’s history it is no surprise that Putin is popular in Russia.

    The West hating left is simple making fools of themselves. There is no justification for this war.

    Exactly. Putin thinking he has a god-given right to rule these countries is antithetical to the very meaning of human progress. All that stuff he uses to justify his wars, that was then, it’s history. Democracy was hardly even a thing back when Putin is basing his justification to rule other countries. It is now and it’s what the people in those countries want. Democracy. Freedom. And Self Rule.

    Honestly, you can get too lost in the weeds of history and historical justification and become simply unable to see the wood for the trees.

  16. Fess

    “ Not doing enough to win female voters? I’m shocked the Young Libs would come out with this considering the reports of their own misogynistic and sexist behaviour in recent years. Pot meet kettle!”

    So they finally identified what the rest of us have known for years? Of course, then it’s another thing altogether to know what to do about it, to want to do something about it and to then actually do something about it. I’m not seeing it happening. It goes against their DNA.

  17. JWS Research has analysis on what issues swung votes, and where they got information..

    Phillip Coorey
    Phillip Coorey
    Political editor
    Aug 9, 2022 – 5.00am

    Economic concerns and climate change were by far the biggest issues that shaped the outcome of the May 21 federal election, dwarfing health and the COVID-19 response, immigration and the need for a national integrity commission, new analysis says.

    A post-election survey of 1000 voters conducted by JWS Research finds economic issues, including the cost of living, inflation, the economy and finances, were cited by 36 per cent as one of the top three issues which influenced their votes.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/voters-motivated-by-economy-and-climate-but-not-by-covid-or-borders-20220808-p5b811

  18. The sources of news by voting intention really shows the demographic voter bases of the parties, esp with the coalition and the Greens.

  19. I’m surprised the poll only included facebook. According to Firefox, The Greens loved Twitter. Labor also adapted Twitter to the campaign very well. The Coalition mainly used it for government advertising.

  20. This is simply a fallacy:

    (The Coalition) failed to engage in serious reform that could help distinguish it from Labor,

    The differences between the two sides couldn’t have been starker at the last election. Basically what the Coalition said they wouldn’t do and what Labor said they would.

  21. The Coalition went off to fight cultural wars and Labor basically told them to go play with themselves. Without labor on the field there was no left flank for the Greens to attack.

  22. In the SmearStralian..

    ‘Outsmarted’: Red faces over teals’ Wentworth assault
    ‘We were outnumbered, out-funded and outshone’ a new report into the Liberal loss of Wentworth concluded, with former Scott Morrison the biggest issue.
    By YONI BASHAN

  23. sprocket_,
    The Liberals believed that, because they had won Wentworth back from Kerryn Phelps, that they would be able to hold off another Independent candidate. But Allegra Spender was different.

  24. For the benefit of Ven 😉

    NSW Labor Opposition Leader, Chris Minns, was just on ABC News Breakfast and made this comment:

    Look, I mean, it’s a bit ridiculous. At this point, this is taxpayer money. We need to know how it’s been spent. Circumstances around this appointment have been completely untransparent from the very beginning. The government has worked very hard at, I guess, obscuring from the public exactly what happened in relation to the Barilaro appointment.

    And in the last two weeks we’ve had a situation where the deputy leader of the Liberal Party has resigned, we’ve got someone from the panel, the Public Service Commissioner, who believes that she was misled. And most of the information has reluctantly been released from the NSW government.

    So there’s serious questions to be answered and the government seems reluctant to do so … anyone would see that [the appointment] wasn’t a wise use of taxpayers’ money.

    It seems as though these positions are being offered around almost like lolly bags to senior members of the NSW government.

  25. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Vale Olivia Newton-John. I might come across as a bit one-eyed this morning with my comments, but the Liberal party has been piled on from all directions in the press today.

    A clear majority of Australians are on board with an Indigenous voice to parliament, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll, but a majority of respondents also haven’t heard very much about it, says Katherine Murphy in her assessment of the latest Essential poll.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/09/guardian-essential-poll-most-australians-support-an-indigenous-voice-but-they-dont-know-too-much-about-it
    Deborah Snow says that John Barilaro is either the luckiest – or unluckiest man – in NSW politics, depending on how you view what he described on Monday as a “series of coincidences”. She reports on yesterday’s “fiery” appearance of the former deputy premier at the inquiry.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/a-fiery-barilaro-plays-the-victim-card-20220808-p5b87u.html
    John Barilaro helped his staff member-turned-girlfriend secure a job at Investment NSW, according to fiery testimony in which he also denied making decisions about his political future when he sought to give ministerial colleagues the power to appoint trade commissioners. Nice.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/john-barilaro-doubles-down-with-fiery-testimony-to-trade-inquiry-20220808-p5b88b.html
    “About 55m light years from Earth, a colossal black hole about 1,000 times larger than the sun known as M87 is slowly consuming the universe. In New South Wales, there is John Barilaro, whose appointment to a New York trade role appears to be getting the job done much faster. That, at least, must be how it feels for the state government, which is in the orbit of something it can no longer contain nor escape. Or, to use Barilaro’s more succinct phrasing, it’s a “shitshow””, writes Michael McGowan.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/09/shitshow-over-john-barilaros-nyc-appointment-keeps-sucking-the-nsw-government-in
    NSW’s London-based trade commissioner expected an $800,000 salary and became “threatening” in tense negotiations over his contract and expenses, a senior public servant has told a parliamentary inquiry. Nice
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/london-trade-commissioner-was-threatening-over-800-000-pay-packet-inquiry-hears-20220808-p5b885.html
    The Liberal Party should be fighting political machines rather than turning into one by embracing “command and control” politics and muzzling debate, warns Rob Stokes.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/mps-say-muzzled-debate-culture-wars-and-populism-is-killing-liberalism-20220808-p5b87j.html
    And the Young Libs have roasted Alex Hawke and Scott Morrison in a scathing submission to the party’s post-election review, run by shadow finance minister Jane Hume and former president Brian Loughnane. Nice.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/brazen-politicking-young-libs-roast-former-minister-alex-hawke-20220808-p5b87p.html
    The Australian has seen the Hume/Loughnane report that it describes the document as an artefact of staggering bluntness that takes aim at numerous targets, including the grossly stubborn behaviour of the Prime Minister’s office and the tin-eared confusion of campaign HQ. Nice.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/business/margin-call/liberal-party-red-faces-over-teals-wentworth-assault-grovelling-apology-over-mercedes-benz-letter/news-story/7e9071dafb6b0e5f8489ef6f0f8bc6fa
    Troy Bramston writes that as Labor approaches its first 100 days in office, it has been a sure start for Anthony Albanese and his government that has been broadly welcomed throughout Australia and abroad., but he wonders if he can avoid the first-term curse. He concludes with “The story of the Albanese government so far augurs well for the future. Voters like to know their governments have a road map and an action plan for taking the country in a new direction. They want sound, stable, responsible administration, and to trust and respect leaders. Albanese might just buck the trend and avoid the first-term curse. Time will tell if he can remain on a steady course.”
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/experienced-albanese-and-co-look-to-defy-firstterm-curse/news-story/12519f61d9f0fceead940ac9c90bfde8
    On its way to electoral oblivion, the Morrison government kept the dollars flowing to select beneficiaries, in defiance of the 70-year-old parliamentary “caretaker” convention, writes #Mate for Michael West. Nice.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/all-caretaker-no-responsibility-how-a-dying-government-slipped-freebies-to-its-mates/
    Phil Coorey refers to new analysis that shows economic concerns and climate change were by far the biggest issues that shaped the outcome of the May 21 federal election, dwarfing health and the COVID-19 response, immigration and the need for a national integrity commission.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/voters-motivated-by-economy-and-climate-but-not-by-covid-or-borders-20220808-p5b811
    In Victoria Rachel Eddie and Annika Smethurst tell us that Matthew Guy’s election prospects have been dealt another blow, with new state electorate boundaries predicted to give Victorian Labor a net gain of two seats ahead of November’s state election.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/new-boundaries-tipped-to-unseat-liberals-20220808-p5b855.html
    Meanwhile Guy has appointed his best man and childhood friend Nick McGowan as his new chief of staff, as Victoria’s integrity agencies work to determine how best to probe a donations scandal that led to the resignation of his top staffer last week. It hasn’t gone sown well.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-liberals-divided-over-chief-of-staff-pick-as-watchdogs-weigh-probe-20220808-p5b817.html
    “Will Labor use the jobs summit to make a serious attempt to fix the enterprise bargaining system, or simply change the law to lock employers into a broken system to appease the unions?”, asks the Age’s editorial which says Burke must get serious about productivity and real wages.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/burke-must-get-serious-about-productivity-and-real-wages-20220807-p5b7yg
    COVID-19 is expected to be the third-leading cause of death in Australia in the first seven months of 2022, an analysis by the Actuaries Institute has concluded.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/more-people-dying-from-covid-than-stroke-lung-cancer-20220808-p5b833.html
    The alarm sounded by the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano Grossi, that fighting between Russian invaders and Ukrainian forces near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant carried “the very real risk of a nuclear disaster” is one with relevance far beyond the war raging within Ukraine’s borders, says a concerned SMH editorial.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/imminent-risk-in-ukraine-shows-danger-of-going-nuclear-20220808-p5b88z.html
    The agriculture minister, Murray Watt, will launch a new national biosecurity strategy today, warning that climate change, Covid and online shopping have contributed to a biosecurity environment that is “more threatening than ever before”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/09/albanese-government-unveils-national-biosecurity-plan-amid-multiple-risks-on-multiple-fronts
    Peter Stanley says that it’s time to tell the truth at the Australian War Memorial.
    https://johnmenadue.com/time-to-tell-the-truth-at-the-australian-war-memorial-image-required-frontier-conflict-aus/
    Jess Irvine explains how borrowers are facing a ‘king hit’ to budgets as fixed interest loans roll off.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/borrowers-face-king-hit-to-budgets-as-fixed-interest-loans-roll-off-20220808-p5b871.html
    With all the mutual agitation going on, Peter Hartcher wonders if the US and China can avoid conflict over Taiwan.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/mutual-agitation-can-us-and-china-avoid-conflict-over-taiwan-20220808-p5b81e.html
    On that subject, Alan Kohler writes, “One can now imagine teams of analysts in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade producing briefing papers for federal cabinet on the prospects of Australian sanctions against China – what they might involve, and how much of a disaster it would be for the Australian economy.”
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/08/08/china-usa-australia-sanctions/
    The Albanese government’s strategic review takes place entirely in the shadow of China’s extreme aggression around Taiwan. These are times, and currents in history, of immense importance for Australia. Nothing cataclysmic is likely to happen in the immediate future but once more we have been delivered the most colossal wake-up call, writes Greg Sheridan who says the Morrison government talked far too much and far too airily about going to war while making absolutely no provision at all to acquire anything that would make it more likely that we could prevail, or even survive, such a war.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/beijing-aggro-should-send-a-rocket-up-defence/news-story/e9c68587727673ea7ae15bc1b5a95690
    Nick O’Malley is pleased that at last the US Senate has flexed its muscle on climate change.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/i-can-look-my-kids-in-the-eye-us-senate-finally-flexes-muscle-on-climate-change-20220808-p5b83r.html
    Will the change of government reset the dial on Australia’s planet-endangering projects? Beetaloo gas fracking, Barnaby Joyce’s petrochemical plant, Scarborough. Australians may soon get the sinking feeling that little has changed from the Morrison-Joyce fossil-fuel spree, writes Callum Foote.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/labor-gas-policy-same-as-coalition/
    Europe’s most severe drought in decades is hitting homes, factories, farmers and freight across the continent, as experts warn drier winters and searing summers fuelled by global heating mean water shortages will become “the new normal”, writes Jon Henley.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/08/the-new-normal-how-europe-is-being-hit-by-a-climate-driven-drought-crisis
    The nation’s only live proposal for a low-emissions coal-fired power station is likely to be rejected by the Queensland government on environmental grounds. Clive Palmer’s $3.5bn proposal for the plant in the Galilee Basin has the support of the local community and was due to create nearly 600 jobs, but the state government says the plan poses “irreversible risks to the environment” and may not be in the public interest.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/axe-hanging-over-clive-palmers-clean-coal-project/news-story/5e16dece89b6c6c7351518bdf80b5474
    Corporate employees at Sydney Airport, Virgin and Qantas are pitching in on “frontline” jobs such as baggage handling to alleviate pressure from the industry’s worker shortage.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/aviation-sector-enlists-corporate-suits-to-handle-bags-amid-workers-shortage-20220808-p5b84y.html
    “The current economic settings are weird. That creates novel challenges for the central bankers on the front lines of the efforts to tame rampant inflation rates around the globe”, writes Stephen Bartholomeusz who reckons the world is behaving very strangely.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-world-is-behaving-very-strangely-20220808-p5b81t.html
    A subsidiary of the supplements company Blackmores left a pregnancy multivitamin on shelves for nearly a year despite hundreds of complaints that it was contaminated with mould-like black spots, a former staff member has alleged. Snake oil merchants!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/09/blackmores-subsidiary-kept-selling-pregnancy-vitamins-despite-hundreds-of-complaints-ex-employee-alleges
    It’s the culture war games – and the last Tory contenders are on the run from reality, writes a downcast Nesrine Malik.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/08/culture-war-games-rishi-sunak-liz-truss-war-on-woke
    Claims that Donald Trump periodically blocked up White House and other drains with wads of paper appear to be borne out in photographs leaked ahead of the publication of a new account of the 45th presidency.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/08/donald-trump-blocked-toilets-photographs-documents-book
    Biden can still stop Trump, and Trumpism – if he can find a bold plan and moral vision, opines Robert Reich.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/08/biden-trump-plan-president-republican-party
    Has the love affair between Trump and Fox News gone sour, wonders Adam Gabbatt who says, “The right-wing channel has not covered its former sweetheart with its regular fervour – could a billion-dollar lawsuit be why?”
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/08/trump-fox-news-presidential-run-2024
    ‘He has done more to further the cause of hate in the US than almost anyone’, writes Charlie Scudder about the rise and fall of Alex Jones.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/08/he-has-done-more-to-further-the-cause-of-hate-in-the-us-than-almost-anyone-the-rise-and-fall-of-alex-jones
    Conspiracy theorist Alex Jones has been ordered to pay millions of dollars in damages from misinformation, but Dr Victoria Fielding argues that it may be too little, too late.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/alex-jones-verdict-is-a-small-victory-in-the-war-against-misinformation,16640

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Andrew Dyson

    Alan Moir

    Matt Golding



    Fiona Katauskas

    John Shakespeare

    Dione Gain

    Mark Knight

    Leak

    From the US









  26. dr dolitle respect your knolige on foreign affairs however the lynn that its ucranes fault foor invation because they wanted to join nato is effectively rusian properganda eucrane had a right to join nato and that does not justify an invation you seem to be atempting to justify putin

  27. imo this makes ucranes case stronger as i think nato should have allowed them to join as they fears re rusia turned out corect

  28. #weatheronPB
    A blinding stillness fixes the air.
    Chittering conversations fight back from hidden places.
    But moaning machines dominate today.

  29. ONJ – my first crush. My second was a girl who looked a bit like ONJ.

    I watched Grease more than 50 times as a little tacker (about 8yo). Watched it again in my 20s and realised how much of it went over my head and how my older sister had G rated the answers to my questions about what Kenicki and Rizzo were up to in the car.

  30. A total of 60 millionaires paid no tax in 2019-20, according to the Australian Tax Office’s latest stats, even though they reported earning $3.5 million each on average. Some claimed an $80,000 deduction for managing their tax affairs, which reduced their taxable income to below the tax-free threshold, an economist told the ABC. Plus litigation costs for managing tax affairs are tax deductible too — the average claim was $250,000 for that. OK, so what do these high-rollers do?! Cut people open, mostly. Doctors topped the list, earning $406,068 on average. The lowest paid were hospo workers ($19,877 on average). By gender, men earned $22,000 more than women in 2019-20 — averaging $74,559 v $52,798.

    Where do these folks live? The ATO says the country’s biggest earners live not in Melbourne or Sydney — but Perth. WA’s Cottesloe and Peppermint Grove have an average income of $325,343, WA Today reports, while Sydney’s Darling Point and Edgecliff averaged $205,957. Conversely, our country’s lowest earners were regional NSW areas like Gurley, Burren Junction, Drildool, Nowley, Boomi, and Garah — probably because of farming losses, the ABC says. Hey, speaking of money out west — billionaire and United Australia Party chair Clive Palmer plans to sue Premier Mark McGowan and Attorney-General John Quigley for $50 million, The West ($) says. It comes just hours after a judge said the premier and Palmer’s defamation case had wasted the court’s time and WA taxpayers’ money.

  31. China appeasers and Russia appeasers on this blog. Why?

    China will extend its military drills around Taiwan by sending fighter aircraft to simulate air-to-ship strikes after it denounced the “finger-pointing” from regional democracies urging it to halt the exercises to prevent the danger of a miscalculation.

    The Chinese military command said the operations would focus on “anti-submarine and air-to-ship strikes” after the scheduled end to its live-fire exercises, stepping up its show of force in the worst crisis in the Taiwan Strait in decades.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wong-calls-for-restraint-as-china-extends-military-drills-around-taiwan-20220808-p5b860.html

  32. It’s very sad news about Olivia Newton-John.

    (name dropping alert)

    She was one of the most naturally beautiful and open in mind and spirit people you could ever meet. Decades ago now, she arrived with Matt Lattanzi. We were in the kitchen, making bolognese. And all she was wanting to talk about was what my job was like. Unpretentious, comfortable, warm, and generous. She gave, and giving was as natural as everything else about her. And left the world better, but smaller.

  33. It’s hard to find fault in the critique by the Young Tories of the old Tories. If they’re indicative of the future of the Tory Party, there’s hope for them yet. And who knows, they might be able to re-badge themselves as liberals again.

  34. Disaster For Trump As The 1/6 Committee Has Alex Jones’s Texts

    Approximately two years’ worth of text messages sent and received by right-wing conspiracy theorist Alex Jones has been turned over to the House select committee investigating the January 6 insurrection, a person familiar with the matter told CNN on Monday.

    If Alex Jones is to be believed, he publicly bragged about his coordination with Trump on the 1/6 attack. Jones’s text could be valuable to the Committee for who he was communicating with. Alex Jones has been linked to militia groups and Trump operatives like Roger Stone.

    Alex Jones’s text messages being in the hands of the 1/6 Committee is very bad news for Trump. Roger Stone tried to put out a pre-defense that suggested he was set up by Jones’s lawyer.

    Things have been very bad for Trump and his co-conspirators, and it is about to get a lot worse.

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/05/preference-flows-and-by-elections-open-thread/

  35. Thorpe is working hard to down the voice.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voice-to-parliament-the-trust-us-approach-is-never-going-to-work-20220808-p5b81y.html

    I suppose in the end the damage done by this will not come close to the damage the Greens did with their climate change wars. An opportunity lost for the originals settlers to have a direct voice into parliament is not the same as delaying the transformation of our economy by 20 years.

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