Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.
Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.
State and territory by-election:
• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.
• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.
• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.
ItzaDream
“And all she was wanting to talk about was what my job was like. ”
Did you say you had trouble maintaining conversation with your patients because they would fall asleep?
Morning all. Thanks BK. Impressed that the Australian’s journos are able to ferret out so much information about what is going on in the Liberal Party. Not even a hint of any leadership tensions though. Lucky for Dutton.
The cases of Barilaro and Guy suggest that the Liberals are as broken at state level as federal. I haven’t followed Victorian polls closely but I assume Andrews is on course for re-election.
I still say a Federal ICAC cant come soon enough. It will help Federal Labor work with the Greens and Teals. Better, I can’t believe it won’t open a whole can of worms with the actions of the previous government.
On Ukraine, I agree with others that Dr Doolittle is very wrong. The whole “NATO started it” meme is nothing more than Russian/Soviet propaganda.
International relations isn’t policed by a global police force. It is anarchy maintained by diplomacy, interdependency and war. It isn’t about what is fair or right. It’s about strategy.
As such, it is perfectly OK to find fault in the actions of one party and still apportion blame to another. DrD isn’t justifying Putin.
However, Ukraine were in a bind. Putin was only going to accept a Ukraine he controlled. Either through puppet governments via rigged elections or through brute force. There weren’t many options open to Ukraine to extricate themselves from that. Putin, losing the soft war, was always going to invade before a hard war became inwinnable.
So for me, the mistake in IR wasn’t so much Ukraine wanting to join NATO. It was how the West reacted post Soviet collapse. It may not have made a difference and Putin may still have taken full control of Russia. But it might have.
Not one for overstatement, Minns gets the trade gigs’ scandal about right:
[‘Look, I mean, it’s a bit ridiculous. At this point, this is taxpayer money. We need to know how it’s been spent. Circumstances around this appointment have been completely untransparent from the very beginning. The government has worked very hard at, I guess, obscuring from the public exactly what happened in relation to the Barilaro appointment.
And in the last two weeks we’ve had a situation where the deputy leader of the Liberal Party has resigned, we’ve got someone from the panel, the Public Service Commissioner, who believes that she was misled. And most of the information has reluctantly been released from the NSW government.
So there’s serious questions to be answered and the government seems reluctant to do so … anyone would see that [the appointment] wasn’t a wise use of taxpayers’ money.
It seems as though these positions are being offered around almost like lolly bags to senior members of the NSW government.’] SMH
‘Chilling’: 4 of the most shocking revelations from a new book about Trump’s war with his generals
A new crop of books about Donald Trump and his final days in office is set to be published in the coming months.
After mostly refraining from publicly criticizing Trump, top Trump officials are now running to make their disagreements with him clear. In response, Trump now says the men who he once boasted were “my generals” are “very untalented people and once I realized it, I did not rely on them, I relied on the real generals and admirals within the system.”
1. “Why can’t you be like the German generals?”
“You fucking generals, why can’t you be like the German generals?” a frustrated Trump reportedly asked his chief of staff, John Kelly.
After Trump demanded the military be sent in to clear the Black Lives Matters protesters, Trump’s generals refused.
“You are all losers! You are all f***ing losers!” Trump lashed out, according to the book. “Can’t you just shoot them? Just shoot them in the legs or something?”
2. “Look, I don’t want any wounded guys in the parade. This doesn’t look good for me”
After returning from his trip to France in 2017, Trump raved about the Bastille Day parade in Paris and told Kelly, “You are going to be doing this next year.”
As was reported at the time, Trump ordered his people to immediately get to work on planning the “biggest, grandest military parade ever for the Fourth of July.” Trump had a very specific aesthetic in mind for his military parade.
“Look, I don’t want any wounded guys in the parade,” Trump made clear to Kelly about the members of the armed services selected to participate. “This doesn’t look good for me.”
3. Gen. Milley’s unsent resignation letter
The New Yorker published a resignment letter from Gen. Mark Milley, who served as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the country’s top military official, in its entirety. But Miley did not resign in the end.
In his letter, Milley told Trump, “You are using the military to create fear in the minds of the people — and we are trying to protect the American people.”
4. Mike Pompeo privately doubted Trump’s Big Lie
https://www.rawstory.com/chilling-4-of-the-most-shocking-revelations-from-a-new-book-about-trump-s-war-with-his-generals/
Random comments:
– Should Clive be declared a vexatious litigant?
– Maybe the worthy burghers of Cottesloe (or their accountants) are less adept at tax planning than those of Darling Point.
– Olivia Newton John was 30 years old when she played Sandy (age 17-18).
spr
Thank you. That list lacks ‘tax’ and ‘respect for women’.
c@t
no tiktok in that list.
Much appreciation Bk for todays reports.
Vale ONJ.
Our local hospital has a fabulous wing named the Olivia Newton John wellness centre.
Her advocacy in this space will always be valued.
https://www.google.com/search?q=olivia:newton+john+wellness+centre&client=tablet-android-samsung&prmd=nimv&sxsrf=ALiCzsaxyFMyi5E4ratieLps4vgZfy6ujA:1659998131329&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiU_sf3prj5AhUq1zgGHUbRCSkQ_AUoAnoECAIQAg&biw=600&bih=960&dpr=2#imgrc=VD1ySkDcFBdzvM&imgdii=R0fBi_cLJlxWmM
Ironic if ICAC, headed by one of the few ALP good guys in the 2007-2011 gloam, John Hatzistergos AM*, conducts inquiry into LNP misconduct.
*who has been the subject of a few very deserved appointments by LNP.
PhoenixRed
Frankly Mike Pompeo is another buffoon.
Sheesh..
Morning bludgers, and thank you BK.
Reich has decided the Democrats will lose the Senate and the House, because that’s what happens. He then builds his house of logic from there, also implying that this November marks the effective end of Biden’s first term, if it hasn’t already ended. And the headline to the article is a nonsense. (Biden can still stop Trump)
I remember November 2020.
I remember December 2020.
I remember January 6.
Trump lost all of them.
I remember.
It’s hard to take him seriously. (Hmm. Either of them.)
Dr Doolittle has clearly stated that causal analysis does not equate with justification. Indeed Dr Doolittle went further to denounce Putin as a fascist.
So why would a few bludgers continue to conflate the two? It makes causal analysis a lot more difficult.
I watched some of the john Barilaro hearing as posted by friendlyjordies.
This guy is a piece of work.
Late riser
It is easy to see where the midterms are headed.
Overturning roe vs wade will ensure women in pariticular will be coming out in droves to vote.
Add the successes of Biden’s policies being enacted.
And not forgetting jan 6 and the DOJ exposing the treasonous foreign paid creeps who conspired to overthrow the democratic process.
All caretaker and no responsibility. How a dying government slipped freebies.
https://michaelwest.com.au/all-caretaker-no-responsibility-how-a-dying-government-slipped-freebies-to-its-mates/
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 8:03 am
China appeasers and Russia appeasers on this blog. Why?
China will extend its military drills around Taiwan by sending fighter aircraft to simulate air-to-ship strikes after it denounced the “finger-pointing” from regional democracies urging it to halt the exercises to prevent the danger of a miscalculation.
“The Chinese military command said the operations would focus on “anti-submarine and air-to-ship strikes” after the scheduled end to its live-fire exercises, stepping up its show of force in the worst crisis in the Taiwan Strait in decades.”
Notwithstanding the geopolitical impacts of the broader crisis, it occurred to me that the desires of 25 million Taiwanese tend to get lost in the morass. The ABC article suggested that few identity as Chinese nowadays and the vast majority wish to maintain their democracy. These need to be taken into account by China and I suspect that these issues (which are different to the Hong Kong situation) are reasons why the West more broadly is concerned about current Chinese activities.
“A post-election survey of 1000 voters conducted by JWS Research finds economic issues, including the cost of living, inflation, the economy and finances, were cited by 36 per cent as one of the top three issues which influenced their votes”
_____________________
I wonder how they are feeling now
considering the cost of living has actually gotten worse under Labor.
You reap what you sow suckers.
There is a rumour floating around that the FBI just finished conducting a search warrant at Mara lago.
Q: I would like to see a thorough cost/benefit analysis for the taxpayer spend on the Commonwealth Games.
I would like to see a thorough cost/benefit analysis of every jet fighter, submarine, tank etc….and maybe a cost/benefit analysis of the 20 billion given t profitabe companies during COVID.
Things like the Comm Games and the Olympics cost absolute peanuts in the scheme of things. If we had more of them, and less military spending we would be better off as a country and as a world.
”
Griffsays:
Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 8:42 am
Dr Doolittle has clearly stated that causal analysis does not equate with justification. Indeed Dr Doolittle went further to denounce Putin as a fascist.
So why would a few bludgers continue to conflate the two? It makes causal analysis a lot more difficult.
”
PB should allow the robust contest of ideas, but instead there has been a growing tendency to “muzzle dissent”.
Taylormade
You really a laugh a second.
Reap what you sow?
It has been fabulous no longer having the worst examples of humanity in Morrison and Barnaby Joyce leading our country.
It has been absolute bliss.
Chefs kiss…..
There is a rumour floating around that the FBI just finished conducting a search warrant at Mara lago.
___________
This is being confirmed on CNN right now.
A must-read for some of the True Unbelievers here …
https://michaelwest.com.au/labor-gas-policy-same-as-coalition/
”
Torchbearersays:
Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 8:53 am
Q: I would like to see a thorough cost/benefit analysis for the taxpayer spend on the Commonwealth Games.
I would like to see a thorough cost/benefit analysis of every jet fighter, submarine, tank etc….and maybe a cost/benefit analysis of the 20 billion given t profitabe companies during COVID.
Things like the Comm Games and the Olympics cost absolute peanuts in the scheme of things. If we had more of them, and less military spending we would be better off as a country and as a world.
”
Torchbearer
According to the article I posted @8:50 am, the LNP caretaker government granted $600,000 / hour from the time it became caretaker government.
Holy crap! I hope they are searching the toilets!?!
phoenixRED
Thanks, Interesting points.
IMHO there is an unsubstantiated public stigma of sorts attached to high military officers that suggests they are merely unthinking tools of governments prepared to to their bidding regardless. This has never been my experience in working with first world democratic nations at least.
Indeed, rather than being military morons as is sometimes the popular opinion, they are deep thinking individuals with a love of their country and democracy that far exceeds their devotion to governments. Accordingly, the points highlighted from that book mostly confirm what I would’ve expected, thankfully.
Taylormade @ #1177 Tuesday, August 9th, 2022 – 8:51 am
Yep. 9 years of Coalition federal government. The nation is reaping what they sowed. 😐
Meanwhile in Adelaide….
About 12.30am on Tuesday 9 August, a member of the public phoned police to advise a white Nissan Pulsar was travelling on the wrong side of the road on the North South Motorway at Dry Creek.
PolAir was in the area and quickly overhead and tracked the car over Regency Road and onto Grange Road where patrols stopped the vehicle. The driver, a 75-year-old woman from Athol Park, was a little confused as to why she had been stopped. Patrols explained to her that she was driving on the wrong side of the road for about 10km. The woman was issued a fine for driving on the wrong side of the road and her licence will be reviewed.
Griff
It’s a language thing. People read a word like “provocation” and they interpret it in their usual emotion-laden sense, rather than as the judgement free jargon it is intended as.
The conflation naturally arises from speaking two almost but not quite the same languages without realising it.
BK
Thanks!
I support causal analysis and agree with many of Dr Doolittle’s points, such as doubts over the reasoning behind AUKUS and a preference for some kind of regional NATO that would give defined security assurances and obligations to all. I think Australia needs stronger defences, and the way we do it matters.
However I disagree with Dr Doolittle and others who argue the expansion of NATO triggered the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014. That is because I don’t think the former caused the latter. It was the excuse not the reason. Once a hardline ruler like Putin came to power Russia was always going to want to reconquer Ukraine. In hindsight the west should have realised this as far back as the Moscow apartment bombings in the 1990s.
Former President Donald Trump, in a statement, says his Mar-a-Lago home is “currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents,” Bloomberg News reports.
BREAKING: Trump says the FBI broke into his safe at Mar-A-Lago
I might also add that the West also made missteps in more recent times. Their intel would have laid out who Putin is and what he is capable of. So why become so reliant on Russian gas, money etc with the real potential of this sort of war?
Pentagon press conference on the latest assistance for Ukraine:
https://youtu.be/wvsN60yktHM
Torchbearer
I wonder whether Xi would have crushed Taiwan now without Taiwan’s military spend?
On the Commonwealth Games, my view is that it takes away from community sports.
j6
Taiwan is a chip superpower.
HH
Bigly news.
Victoria @ #1265 Tuesday, August 9th, 2022 – 8:46 am
Exactly. And there’ll be another round of J6C starting in a few weeks.
BW, how quick (under a war footing) could the US bring back essential manufacturing?
Gas is a little harder to replace.
We are starting to see the limits of interdependency theory with autocratic states.
The FBI broke into Trump’s safe (according to Trump). CNN is conjecturing that the raid could be connected to national archives requirements.
BK @ #1273 Tuesday, August 9th, 2022 – 9:00 am
Ooh! (Saw your post as well HH.)
Trump slapped with FBI search warrant at Mar-a-Lago: report
According to Kaitlan Collins, the former president confirmed the raid to CNN in a statement laden with angry tirades against Democrats and law enforcement.
“These are dark times for our Nation, as my beautiful home … is currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents,” said Trump. “Nothing like this has happened to a President of the United States before … They even broke into my safe! What is the difference between this and Watergate, where operatives broke into the Democrat [sic] National Committee? Here, in reverse, Democrats broke into the home of the 45th President of the United States.”
“The political persecution of President Donald J. Trump has been going on for years,
It remains unclear what the FBI was searching for, but it comes as Justice Department officials continue to investigate Trump for his role in the plot to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-search-warrant/
”
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 7:30 am
For the benefit of Ven
NSW Labor Opposition Leader, Chris Minns, was just on ABC News Breakfast and made this comment:
Look, I mean, it’s a bit ridiculous. At this point, this is taxpayer money. We need to know how it’s been spent. Circumstances around this appointment have been completely untransparent from the very beginning. The government has worked very hard at, I guess, obscuring from the public exactly what happened in relation to the Barilaro appointment.
And in the last two weeks we’ve had a situation where the deputy leader of the Liberal Party has resigned, we’ve got someone from the panel, the Public Service Commissioner, who believes that she was misled. And most of the information has reluctantly been released from the NSW government.
So there’s serious questions to be answered and the government seems reluctant to do so … anyone would see that [the appointment] wasn’t a wise use of taxpayers’ money.
It seems as though these positions are being offered around almost like lolly bags to senior members of the NSW government
”
My point was/is LNP political scalps are being offered by LNP almost like lolly bags to Chris Minns. 🙂
Trumps safe? Or his septic?
As the FBI is raiding Trump, I turned over to Fox News and got “What about Hunter Biden?”
”
Deborah Snow says that John Barilaro is either the luckiest – or unluckiest man – in NSW politics, depending on how you view what he described on Monday as a “series of coincidences”. She reports on yesterday’s “fiery” appearance of the former deputy premier at the inquiry.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/a-fiery-barilaro-plays-the-victim-card-20220808-p5b87u.html
”
He is neither ‘luckiest’ nor ‘unluckiest’. He is a ‘Nationals’ party leader, who like all Nationals party leaders, knows how to milk the system for himself.
Nationals stand for milking the system for themselves and they are open and unashamed about it.
Renato Mariotti @renato_mariotti – Former federal prosecutor.
Trump confirms that federal law enforcement is executing a search warrant at Mar-A-Lago.
This means a federal judge found that there is good reason to believe that a crime was committed and that evidence of that crime was located in Mar-A-Lago.
Trump should be very concerned.
Socrates @ Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 9:04 am
Fair enough and I appreciate that you were not throwing the word “justification” around like some did earlier this morning and last night. Apologies for any perceived inference.
Real life is messy i.e. a complex system. I agree that historical territory is very much a contributing condition, as is autocratic leadership. However, it may be reasonable to consider the balance in economic and military power between neighbouring country/countries would be another.
Jan 6 @ #1193 Tuesday, August 9th, 2022 – 9:05 am
Because they thought money would be Putin’s main motivating factor in his calculations.