Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)

A look at preference flow data from the 2019 and 2022 elections, and the latest on looming by-elections in the Northern Territory, Tasmania and (sort of) Western Australia.

Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.

Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.

State and territory by-election:

• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.

• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.

• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,594 comments on “Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)”

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  1. Glenn Kirschner @glennkirschner2 – Legal Analyst; Fmr 30-yr fed prosecutor.

    The FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s “home,” is a significant barrier broken – a maiden legal voyage. This increases the odds exponentially (IMO) that Trump WILL be indicted for the crimes he inarguably committed against the United States.


  2. “About 55m light years from Earth, a colossal black hole about 1,000 times larger than the sun known as M87 is slowly consuming the universe. In New South Wales, there is John Barilaro, whose appointment to a New York trade role appears to be getting the job done much faster. That, at least, must be how it feels for the state government, which is in the orbit of something it can no longer contain nor escape. Or, to use Barilaro’s more succinct phrasing, it’s a “shitshow””, writes Michael McGowan.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/09/shitshow-over-john-barilaros-nyc-appointment-keeps-sucking-the-nsw-government-in

    Nationals leaders are experts in creating ‘shitshows’, which consume LNP. Ask Barnaby Joyce, Joh Bjelke-Petersen. 🙂

  3. phoenixRED @ #1212 Tuesday, August 9th, 2022 – 9:28 am

    Glenn Kirschner @glennkirschner2 – Legal Analyst; Fmr 30-yr fed prosecutor.

    The FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s “home,” is a significant barrier broken – a maiden legal voyage. This increases the odds exponentially (IMO) that Trump WILL be indicted for the crimes he inarguably committed against the United States.

    I’ve been following Glenn Kirschner’s ‘Justice Matters’ You Tube channel. Well worth the time.

  4. Will Trump ever go to jail? Ive never seen that actually occur.

    What i do see is that he will be eventually be officially found to be an illegitimate and traitorous president.

  5. For Trump that was a very long victimhood statement. I won’t repeat it because it feeds so nicely into his propaganda. But I wonder how many of our MSM will parrot it back to us in the coming hours or days.

  6. PBS NewsHour

    @NewsHour

    The Justice Department has been investigating the discovery of boxes of records containing classified information that were taken to Mar-a-Lago after Trump’s presidency had concluded. It was not clear whether the FBI search was connected to that probe

  7. Late Riser @ #1213 Tuesday, August 9th, 2022 – 9:28 am

    Twitter is going nuts on the Trump raid. I’m sitting here grinning.

    I’m wondering how Lindsey Graham, Mark Meadows, JD Vance, Kari Lake, Rudy Giuliani, Sydney Powell, Mike Lindell, Tucker Carlson, Rupert and Lachlan Murdoch (because Trump will dump on them if he has to), all the MAGAites who have publicly stated that they would overturn an election for Trump, et al, are feeling now?

  8. Trump’s home got searched. And virtually the entire press corps has taken that as an opportunity to give Trump their social media real estate from which to lie for free.

    https://www.emptywheel.net/

    Also interesting is how the news didn’t break until the FBI were finished and had left.

  9. Cartoons from the Country that ONJ represented in Eurovision in 1974 (and finished 4th behind some Swedish band)…




    Patrick Blower has gone for a bit of artist modification:
    The original John Constable – The Hay Wain

  10. shellbell at 8.39 am

    You have more faith in John Hatzistergos than I do. I have a reason for doubting him, which derives from my friends’ pain. They have lost both their birth sons in NSW custody, the first because of an appalling lack of care for him in Long Bay gaol in late 1999 (e.g. giving the young man, who had an intellectual disability and was drugged up for years in the hospital there as a means of controlling him, a TV cord when he had been classified as a “chronic suicide risk”). The Inquest, before Ms Milledge, concluded that the NSW prison system had no policy whatsoever to respond to his needs. Subsequently, there was a compensation case. The conceivable compensation was limited by the Carr’s government’s legislative changes. The case was scheduled for trial in September 2004. The main obstacle to a reasonable settlement was obstinacy by Mr Hatzistergos, as Minister for Justice. The other responsible minister, the Minister for Health, would have made a reasonable offer, but Mr Hatzistergos would not. That was according to Meredith Burgmann’s office. It was terribly poor, particularly since, as the parents’ solicitor noted, the State refused to behave as a model litigant. Specifically, the State disputed liability without good cause, did not make appropriate admissions, and did not even admit that it was responsible for the man’s welfare while he was in gaol, or even that he had made many threats of self-harm to NSW prison staff, threats documented in prison records.

    His parents must endure another Inquest (into a police shooting of their other son) later this year.

  11. Omar Rivero

    @OmarRiverosays

    The best part about the FBI raiding Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence is that Governor DeSantis clearly knew about the raid — and he didn’t warn Trump. Grab your popcorn folks… Trump is about to go down in flames, and he’s going to take the entire Republican Party down with him


  12. Jan 6 @ #1193 Tuesday, August 9th, 2022 – 9:05 am

    I might also add that the West also made missteps in more recent times. Their intel would have laid out who Putin is and what he is capable of. So why become so reliant on Russian gas, money etc with the real potential of this sort of war?

    People go on about NATO, but to be fair, the west traded with Russia, the incorrect assumption the West made was the bucks Russia was making, the interdependence was not enough to stop Putin trying for more.

    You can’t blame the West for trying. The same goes with China. China is where it is because of a lot of help from the West. Some deliberate, some not.

    Australia for example has a free trade agreement with China.

    All that will now go away, bit by bit. Can China continue it’s economic success without international markets, which are under pinned by the USA controlling the seas. I doubt it.

  13. C@tmomma, Compared with Trump, the victim Barilaro is a sook. Trump is a true hero, a victim of his principles, a martyr.

    /sarc

  14. If Trump is required to attend an interview with the FBI he will be under an obligation to tell the truth. It is an offence to lie to the FBI. If he lies he can be charged and if convicted then he might well be imprisoned. There’s more than enough time available between now and the 2024 election for this to play out. There is a mountain of evidence available to show that Trump sought to frustrate the 2020 election and then to attempt a coup in January 2021. He should be held to account for this.

  15. Mr. Newberger
    @jeremynewberger

    2m

    In response to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home being raided, conspiracy theorists have lowered their false flags to half staff

    🙂

  16. Victoriasays:
    Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 9:31 am

    Will Trump ever go to jail? Ive never seen that actually occur.

    What i do see is that he will be eventually be officially found to be an illegitimate and traitorous president.

    He will never be found to be an illegitimate president because he wasn’t one.

  17. Heather Gardner
    @heathergtv

    7m

    Jesse Watters’ current meltdown on Fox News is almost as good as the Mar-a-Lago raid itself

  18. They even broke into my safe! What is the difference between this and Watergate, where operatives broke into the Democrat [sic] National Committee?

    Um, the FBI were breaking into the safe of the person who wanted to subvert democracy, as opposed to the Republican safe breakers… who wanted to subvert democracy. 😐

  19. I highly doubt hosting the Comm Games (if it was possible) would in any way harm Taiwan’s defense’s…. As for community sport, the next Comm Games are spreading World Class facilities to Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong and Gippsland. The Brisbane Olympics are putting sports hubs thought the region (rather than a central Olympic Park)..

  20. The FBI would only have to break into his safe if he refused to open it.

    Wouldn’t that mean Trump was obstructing the search?

    I would suggest Trump’s “break into” really means “I opened the safe for them.”

  21. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/05/preference-flows-and-by-elections-open-thread/comment-page-27/#comment-3963193

    Hmmm, NATO is an alliance, and may not have friends, it does have partners.

    Most of NATO’s members are democracies, the likes of the BRICs are at best non-aligned or at worst authoritarian (be it fascists, theocrazies, commies).

    Similarly technology can be used for good (sinking the Russian cruiser with an anti-ship missile off Ukraine) or evil (sinking an English frigate with an ASM en-route to the Falklands/ Malvinas).

    Not surprised that after the Fall of the Berlin Wall/ communism, NATO’s edges extend into the Baltic, Eastern Europe etc (if obviously not Middle East, West Asia, etc, given the Atlantic nature of the charter).

    Let’s see where QUAD etc go, can’t imagine AUKUS surviving if them subs become Swedish and/ or French after all ….

  22. What is the difference between this and Watergate, where operatives broke into the Democrat [sic] National Committee?

    A warrant.

    I mean, just for starters.

  23. phoenixREDsays:
    Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 9:57 am

    George Conway@gtconway3d

    We are flush with new information about the former guy this morning

    Wouldn’t that depend on how water resistant the ink was?

  24. Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins – CNN’s Chief White House Correspondent·

    “The former president of the United States did not handle classified documents properly. I watched him do it…I watched him go through documents, throw some away, rip some up and put some in his pocket,” Stephanie Grisham, Trump’s former press secretary, says on CNN.

    Trump was not in Florida when the Mar-a-Lago search happened. He is at Trump Tower in New York, I am told.


  25. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 9:05 am
    Former President Donald Trump, in a statement, says his Mar-a-Lago home is “currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents,” Bloomberg News reports.

    BREAKING: Trump says the FBI broke into his safe at Mar-A-Lago

    “nice” as BK kept saying in Dawn Patrol news articles. 🙂


  26. Boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 9:05 am
    Torchbearer
    I wonder whether Xi would have crushed Taiwan now without Taiwan’s military spend?
    On the Commonwealth Games, my view is that it takes away from community sports.

    BW
    But but but Australia won 67 Gold medals and 178 medals in latest Commonwealth games and over 1000 Gold.edals in Commonwealth games in all Commonwealth games.


  27. phoenixREDsays:
    Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 9:25 am
    Renato Mariotti @renato_mariotti – Former federal prosecutor.

    Trump confirms that federal law enforcement is executing a search warrant at Mar-A-Lago.

    This means a federal judge found that there is good reason to believe that a crime was committed and that evidence of that crime was located in Mar-A-Lago.

    Trump should be very concerned.


    JenAuthorsays:
    Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 9:28 am
    So the question might be: will the orange jumpsuit be darker than the Donald’s make-up?

    But but but…
    Noam Chomsky called Trump a Statesman when it comes to Ukraine war. 🙂

  28. We live in a country where we spend billions on fraction of a second improvements for people who are already extremely fit, strong and healthy.
    We can’t find a brass razoo for joe/jane average to drop a few kilograms, which would probably then save ourselves more than the billions that we spend on the pointy end of sport…

    Doesn’t that make you proud?


  29. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, August 9, 2022 at 9:34 am
    Late Riser @ #1218 Tuesday, August 9th, 2022 – 9:32 am

    For Trump that was a very long victimhood statement. I won’t repeat it because it feeds so nicely into his propaganda. But I wonder how many of our MSM will parrot it back to us in the coming hours or days.

    Did he give John Barilaro a run for his money?

    Barilaro is a chimp when compared to Trump or he is not worth Trump’s shoes dust. 🙂

  30. The NSW Treasurer has been chosen as the deputy leader of the state’s Liberal Party.

    Matt Kean was the only MP to put his hand up for the largely ceremonial position and won without a ballot.

    The party’s whip declared the choice to reporters in a 30-second press conference shortly after 10am.

  31. Opros Politics
    @OprosUK
    UK Monthly Polling Tracker (Jul):

    LAB: 40.8% (+1.5)
    CON: 31.8% (-1.1)
    LDM: 11.8% (-0.2)
    GRN: 5.4% (+0.2)
    SNP: 3.9% (-0.2)
    REF: 2.6% (+0.2)

    LAB lead CON by 9.1pp (+2.7)

  32. Q: We live in a country where we spend billions on fraction of a second improvements for people who are already extremely fit, strong and healthy.
    We can’t find a brass razoo for joe/jane average

    I think the billions are going into the NRL and AFL, propped up by billions of spending on new stadiums. These are out of the public domain.

    All the other sports combined, including community sports, by comparison get peanuts.

  33. This is an article in The Washington Post about the Mar A Lago FBI raid that I have allowed to be opened:

    https://wapo.st/3zL37Tz

    Former president Donald Trump said Monday that the FBI had raided his Mar-a-Lago Club and searched his safe — activity related to an investigation into the potential mishandling of classified documents, according to a person familiar with the probe.

  34. C@tmomma @ #1347 Tuesday, August 9th, 2022 – 10:46 am

    This is an article in The Washington Post about the Mar A Lago FBI raid that I have allowed to be opened:

    https://wapo.st/3zL37Tz

    Former president Donald Trump said Monday that the FBI had raided his Mar-a-Lago Club and searched his safe — activity related to an investigation into the potential mishandling of classified documents, according to a person familiar with the probe.

    Thank you C@tomma. These two points stand out for me.

    court-authorized

    To take such a step would require approval at the highest levels of the Justice Department.

    All the nonsense in his victim statement can be ignored, perhaps only relevant to students of psychology or propaganda.

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