The local branch of international communications firm SEC Newgate has published a post-election survey as part of a regular monthly series that had hitherto escaped my notice. Among its findings are that 28% of Labor voters at the election had voted for a different party or candidate in 2019, and that the party had “regained some traction with its traditional base”, particularly among middle-aged men. Conversely, the flight to the Greens and independents was driven overwhelmingly by women.
The survey also found 54% felt Australia was headed in the right direction post-election, up from 47% in April, and 52% felt the success of independents was good for Australia. Labor was considered the best party to handle housing by 42% to 25%, although its policy for partial government investment in private homes had only 38% support. The Coalition’s policy to allow first home buyers to draw on their superannuation was supported and opposed by 40% apiece, but its “downsizer” reforms were supported by 52% and opposed by 18%. Fifty-nine per cent supported an indigenous voice to parliament, with only 16% opposed. The survey was conducted May 23 to 27 from a sample of 1403.
Note also the post below dealing with the election result in the two Northern Territory seats, in what will be the first of a number of “call of the board” posts. It also marks a new leaf I’m at least planning on turning over in which I will increase the frequency of specialised posts with on-topic discussion threads, distinct from the usual poll-driven open threads like this one. We’ll see if I’m actually able to devote enough energy to the blog to make this viable long term. In any case, the open thread posts will henceforth be designated as such in their titles, as per the above.
”
Steve777says:
Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 9:51 am
In North Sydney, Labor received 28.46% of the Senate first preference vote and 21.44% of the House first preferences, a difference of close to 7% even though Labor had a good House candidate.
I think that it’s a fair estimate that the Strategic vote for the Teal might be around 5%. Multiply this across about 20 Teal-targeted seats and divide by 151 total seats gives a strategic vote of 0.66%.
That is rough but I don’t think it’s too far out. It is likely that strategic voting explains most, possibly all of Labor’s primary vote reduction.
”
Assuming you are correct in your assessment let us say that the 0.8% reduction in ALP is due to”Tactical ” voting.
When ALP lost election in 2013 their PV was about 33%. So after 9 years of atrocious LNP government, ALP PV remains at its lowest levels. When ALP won election in 2007, their PV was about 42%. So ALP, which lost about 9% of its PV in 2013, never recovered that after 9 years of atrocious LNP government.
My original point in my post@8:45 am was that this is the first since atleast WW1 that a established party won from opposition with a PV much less than 40%. Why is ALP unable to recover any of its PV percentage wise even after such a atrocious LNP government?
Snappy tom
Taking antihistamines has definitely helped!
Thanks for the advice
Snappy Tom
“ Teals for me are Liberals of the Menzies/Peacock persuasion. Their main value to me is as destroyers of the Right.”
Exactly, as I said, natural allies of the ALP (chuckles, but I get your point).
Cronus
I was able to acces article earlier. Now i cant!
Damn.
Ven at 12.03
“Why is ALP unable to recover any of its PV percentage wise even after such a atrocious LNP government?”
I haven’t checked but I suspect there is a trend away from the major parties towards the cross bench.
If such a trend is true, Labor basically holding its 2019 PV could be considered a positive as 1) LNP PV plummeted; 2) Labor hoovered up cross bench preferences.
Of course, the trend may well continue, leading to the need for multi-party coalitions to form any govt. How will the meeja cope?
I, for one, am rather glad the ALP doesn’t design their key environmental policies around what will best annoy a minor party.
They mostly refused to say what they would do if forced to choose between a Coalition minority government and a Labor minority government.
It seemed to me that the Teals were never going to do a deal with the Morrison-led Liberals.
It is at least possible that they may have to make a choice in 2025.
Where would they land?
‘Asha says:
Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 12:11 pm
I, for one, am rather glad the ALP isn’t in the business of basing their key environmental policies around what will best annoy a minor party’
———————-
It is an absolute scandal that Labor refuses to Save the Planet.
Vic
I am glad you are recovering. The consistent message we get is not to try to push through fatigue. Take it Albaneasy!
Snappy Tom
An even closer temporal comparison would be the ‘Chaney persuasion’ . The bonus being with that is an actual Chaney was elected 🙂
Boerwar @ #148 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 9:59 am
“islands they used to run”
They were uninhabited and not run by anyone.
As far Bhutan goes, I’m yet to see anything to suggest that the Chinese establishment that has been built there doesn’t have the approval of Bhutan.
Whatever the PV of the main parties the fact is that at the end of the day, with compulsory preferential voting, more people preferred the ALP to the coalition and the ALP got those preferences where it mattered. That’s not to say the drop in primary vote for the ALP is not a concern but my opinion is that IF they provide competent govt their pv will increase.
Sonar:
I agree. There’s a real opportunity here for Labor to use the power and authority that comes from incumbency to build on their 2022 result in three years time.
Victoria says:
Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 12:09 pm
Cronus
“I was able to acces article earlier. Now i cant!
Damn.”
No matter, all good, I get the drift, and thanks for trying. Get better is your priority.
BiTJ
Give me evidence that they were never used by Vietnamese, Philippines or Malaysian fisherfolk.
Snappy Tom says:
Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 12:09 pm
Ven at 12.03
“Why is ALP unable to recover any of its PV percentage wise even after such a atrocious LNP government?”
“I haven’t checked but I suspect there is a trend away from the major parties towards the cross bench.
If such a trend is true, Labor basically holding its 2019 PV could be considered a positive as 1) LNP PV plummeted; 2) Labor hoovered up cross bench preferences.
Of course, the trend may well continue, leading to the need for multi-party coalitions to form any govt. How will the meeja cope?”
For the Murdochracy at least it will be “the end of the world as we know it” (REM).
Cronus
The article posited that there may be a nationals split. The north being Qld and the south being Victoria, who would adopt a more progressive stance.
BiTJ
‘As far Bhutan goes, I’m yet to see anything to suggest that the Chinese establishment that has been built there doesn’t have the approval of Bhutan.’
Evidence, please!
Boerwar says:
Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 12:24 pm
BiTJ
Give me evidence that they were never used by Vietnamese, Philippines or Malaysian fisherfolk.
____________
Boerwar, the great defender of South East Asian fisherfolk!
Victoria says:
Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 12:25 pm
Cronus
“The article posited that there may be a nationals split. The north being Qld and the south being Victoria, who would adopt a more progressive stance.”
Interesting, thanks.
Asha @ #162 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 12:20 pm
But then there is the SDA faction that works against the popular VAD laws for the territories…
Boerwar
Yes exactly. The key is to not overdo it!
And rest, rest, rest!
Victoria @ #171 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 12:31 pm
Oranges. Lots of them ..!
Rex douglas
And that too!
Andrew_Earlwood @ #94 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 10:48 am
Oh, that’s right, humiliate the person who points out the multi-pronged approach of China towards destabilising the West, and go, I prosecute people for this all the time…and not make the logical connection.
Who’s derping now?
I see you also don’t have a solution to the obvious problem we have. Except for accommodating whatever China wants to do, of course. And clipping your ticket on the way through as you sit in judgement on the small fry that come before you.
”
a rsays:
Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 10:53 am
Ven @ #25 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 8:45 am
That still doesn’t explain the low PV ( 32.6%) of ALP i.e ALP PV went backwards by 0.8%.
And the Greens PV went forwards by 1.9%. That had to come from somewhere. Probably Labor’s 0.8% went to the Greens (and teals/indies, in seats that had one), and then came straight back via preferences.
As long as there’s preferential voting the PV discussion is a bit of a distraction. I’ve never given Labor (or the Greens) my first preference vote. Doesn’t mean I don’t support both of them. Just want to throw some encouragement to the minors and (sensible) indies, because I can.
If anyone needs to be concerned about low primaries it’s the Coalition. Because they’ve already…formed a coalition. Merged and put up the whole “broad church” facade to hoodwinkhoover up right-wing voters. They don’t have a reliable source of third-party preferences like Labor does with the Greens. Which means they’re the ones who will struggle to win with a weak PV.
”
LNP get third-party preferences from PHON and Palmer party voters, which accounts for 9.1% PV.
Boerwar @ #135 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 11:44 am
As recently as yesterday. 😀
China is starting to act like a white country. That’s just not on.
Great post from Andrew earlier
This has been a known known for a decade. The article is part of 9/Faix’s drip drip drip campaign to inflame sentiment against China. Designed to trigger folk into irrational posturing and silly conclusions such as “The time for accomodating China is over”. Derpa Derpa Derpa.
We really need to better on all of this
True. Chris Uhlmann has to mention China pretty much every night in his nightly CH 9 broadcast.
Ven @ #175 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 12:36 pm
And if you add The Greens and the Teals proportional PV to Labor, and there is hard evidence now that ~60% of Teal voters preferenced Labor over the Liberals in their seats, that that boosts Labor’s PV.
Watermelon @ #177 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 12:39 pm
Because the world really needs another era of aggressive colonialism. 🙄
It’s someone else’s turn to eat
What a bloke eh ..!
“Ven says:
Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 12:03 pm
….. Why is ALP unable to recover any of its PV percentage wise even after such a atrocious LNP government?”
In my view, following the 2007 federal election and the recognition by Murdoch et al. that neither Rudd nor the vast majority of the ALP back then, and virtually the unanimity of the ALP now, had any intention to return to the old Hawke-Keating neoliberalism light, the anti-ALP propaganda by the mainstream media has been absolutely massive, relentless and unforgiving. Recently, they have discovered that another way of damaging the ALP is by supporting the Greens, especially in inner city, progressive electorates (in the past the Libs tended to put the Greens last). In that way, the usual suspects expect to debilitate the ALP from the left. The tactic, however, can only work for as long as the ALP remains in opposition, once they are in government they can show that their program is indeed progressive, and many voters who voted for the Greens because they believed the crap that “Libs and Labs are just the same” are likely to return to the ALP, including the women voters. So, let’s wait and see what’s going to happen in 2025.
… In addition, there is the effect of tactical voting, especially in Teals electorates, and I don’t expect that to change. If anything, it may increase. But, paradoxically, although tactical voting will decrease the overall primary vote of the ALP, it will increase their probability to win a federal election, as the Coalition will be weakened by the Teals. In this regard, it’s important for the ALP to keep engaging the Teals constructively, as they have been doing for some time now.
Old paradigms are changing and professional political analysts in the mainstream media better get a grip, or risk being ridiculed by reality.
Watermelon says:
Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 12:39 pm
China is starting to act like a white country. That’s just not on.
—————————-
What a racist comment and ignorant of history since some of the greatest empires and empire builders were not white and some rank highly for their brutality.
I think there is positives here… yes, I get it most of us are relatively partisan and fixating on “our” team and how it did relative to the others.
In my mind, this is the election demonstrating the benefits of preferential voting. Labor was able to reflect itself as the safer pair of hands, especially for those who fundamentally moved away from the Liberals (and mostly Liberals) – they had the option to vote for their ideal (Green/Indy) etc but preference the one of the two they most wanted in office – this is how our voting system is actually supposed to work.
Having said that, the PV swing to Labor in their target seats was pretty good (except in Tas and some of QLD and Gilmore)
– Bennelong 4%
– Chishom 4%
– Hasluck 9%
– Higgins 2.5%
– Macquarie 5%
– Reid 4%
– Pearce 11%
– Robertson 3.5%
– Swan 6%
– Tangey 10%
So seats where the ALP PV went up AND it was the recipient of strong preference flows, so it wasn’t a consistent national picture.
Boerwar, traditional owners/First Nations around the world have a historical legacy opposing the nuclear industry on their lands.
See long term struggles in US, Canada, Australia, Japan. The South Pacific has a legacy of nuclear tests imposed by colonial powers, as do desert mobs in Australia.
To advocate for nuclear power to address climate change, without being able to provide any evidence of any First Nations support seems problematic to me.
For cultural and environmental reasons First Nations have a proud history of standing up to the powerful nuclear industry.
I think they might think that two wrongs don’t make a right when it comes to nuclear and fossil fuels.
Aboriginal people take cultural responsibility for what happens on their land, including when a dangerous material (uranium) is taken from their land and is the fuel in a disaster (Fukushima). This included Adnyamathanha peoplein SA (Beverly uranium mine) and Mirrar people in NT (Ranger uranium mine).
“It is important to share the connection between Mirarr country and this nuclear disaster,” the Gundjeihmi Aboriginal Corporation, on behalf of the Mirarr clan, told SBS Japanese.
Mirarr want the world to understand the responsibility we feel for the impacts of uranium from our country.
Although the Ranger mine finally closed in January, the Mirarr people say they have lived with the effects of uranium mining on their land for over four decades.
“We understand the dangerous and long-lasting effects first-hand.
“The Mirarr has a long-standing connection with Japan from the supply of uranium to the fantastic support the Japanese community gave Mirarr in our opposition to the Jabiluka uranium mine in the 1990s, through to our shared connection of the tragic events at Fukushima.”
In 2014, the Mirarr people welcomed Japan’s former Prime Minister Naoto Kan, who came to witness how uranium has damaged both Mirarr country and Japan.
“The Mirarr are saddened knowing that many people in Japan are still feeling the impact of the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Mirarr want people in Japan to know that you are often in our thoughts”
More @ https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/australia-is-deeply-connected-to-the-fukushima-nuclear-accident
Indigenous Elders’ Statement Of Urgency On Fukushima
November 20, 2013 ~ admin
EarthHeal November 20 2013 (Thanks, Mim)
“The future perils to humanity as a result of the 2011 Fukushima Dai-Chi nuclear disaster, which occurred in the wake of Japan’s earthquake and tsunami, continue to emerge. New reports indicate that a wealth of new radioactive materials has been spewed into the atmosphere causing concern that It’s spreading globally. Nuclear radiation is forever. It doesn’t dissipate or disappear. No safe level exists.”
Arvol Looking Horse, who is widely recognized as a chief and the spiritual leader of all three branches of the Sioux tribe – Lakota, Dakota, and Nakota
More @ https://shiftfrequency.com/indigenous-elders-statement-of-urgency-on-fukushima/
An armed man has been arrested near Kavanaugh’s home, and charged with attempted murder, other charges:
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/08/politics/man-arrested-near-brett-kavanaugh-home/index.html
I avoid the Australian but this reporting is of Dutton’s latest grandstanding about submarines in The Australian this morning.
https://indaily.com.au/news/2022/06/09/morrison-govt-was-trying-to-fast-track-nuclear-subs-by-2030/
Spud wrote:
“I believed it possible to negotiate with the Americans to acquire, say, the first two submarines off the production line out of Connecticut,” he wrote.
“This wouldn’t mean waiting until 2038 for the first submarine to be built here in Australia.
“We would have our first two subs this decade. I had formed a judgement the Americans would have facilitated exactly that.”
What drivel. In other words “I believed it possible” and “I had formed a judgement” meant the Americans have not agreed to this. This is more of typical Liberal defence planning – based on nothing more than wishful thinking.
The Virginia Class submarines are in the USA’s most restricted class of defence technology. Even after agreeing to Australia using US nuclear propulsion technology, there is no guarantee the USA would agree to sell the RAN Virginias built in USA. There are also US laws involved. This would have to be passed by a vote in Congress. Good luck with that if the Republicans win control in November.
In fact, if Australia really wants access to Virginias, the best chance would be to make the decision immediately, and seek Biden to take an approval through Congress now. Anything is possible after November. Personally I think the US SSN option is too expensive, especially after what we now know of the state of the economy Josh left us in.
We’ve had a couple of decades of Labor and Liberal being portrayed by the media as exactly the same, with criticisms of one being ‘balanced’ by ‘the others do it too.”
If the perception is that the majors are ‘same same’, the incentive to change parties isn’t there. No point voting ALP if they’re the same as the other mob.
In this climate, of course you’d expect ‘Others’ (of whatever point of the compass) to thrive.
IF a major can govern in a way which overcomes the ‘same same’ narrative, that major will attract primary votes back from alternatives.
We have seen this to an extent in the various States, where good governance has seen the party in power increase its vote over subsequent elections.
My other observation is that, when there’s the perception that there’s some kind of backlash against the government, you tend to get a wider field of candidates, as there’s a sense that there’s more opportunities to get a foot in the door.
Mavis @ #189 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 12:55 pm
The man volunteered himself for arrest, and did so after he saw US Marshals outside Kavanagh’s home. He said he was suicidal, and had bought a handgun and a knife to kill Kavanagh. The evidence the police have is what he told them himself.
Boerwar @ #164 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 10:24 am
You are really grasping at tenuous links.
Of course there would have been no Chinese fisherfolk who visited them.
But that’s simple deflection and irrelevant.
None of that proves a claim of ownership which is the whole point.
So when you say that China has stolen land from these countries it is a simple lie.
Repeating a lie doesn’t make it true, we’ve seen enough of that over the last nine years to know that.
But we all know your real intention is to shut down reasonable debate and have everyone kowtow to your simplistic, CHINA BAD, rhetoric.
Boerwar @ #167 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 10:25 am
Once again you ask for evidence of the existence of doG.
I can find no statement regarding the town from the Bhutanese Government.
Good to see Deakin will be the most marginal seat for next election if the vote tallies stay the same (no more envelopes to be counted in either seat now).
JenAuthorsays:
Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 2:01 pm
Good to see Deakin will be the most marginal seat for next election if the vote tallies stay the same (no more envelopes to be counted in either seat now).
_________________________
Just 364 votes the difference…
yabba:
Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 1:52 pm
Mavis @ #189 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 12:55 pm
An armed man has been arrested near Kavanaugh’s home, and charged with attempted murder, other charges:
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/08/politics/man-arrested-near-brett-kavanaugh-home/index.html
[‘The man volunteered himself for arrest, and did so after he saw US Marshals outside Kavanagh’s home. He said he was suicidal, and had bought a handgun and a knife to kill Kavanagh. The evidence the police have is what he told them himself.’]
A voluntary admission is the best possible evidence though he’ll probably be referred to our equivalent of the Mental Health Court.
This incident will give the other justices on the SCOTUS the heebie-jeebies. The court now is more politicised than its been in some time,
a consequence of which is that they’ll likely be more incidents like the instant one, particularly given the likely overturning of Roe -v- Wade, and its refusal to budge an inch on the Second Amendment.
It should also be noted that at the nomination hearings of Gorsuch,
Kavanagh, and Coney Barrett, all said on oath that they would not let their religious convictions impact their decisions – pigs arse! Their
confirmation, Trump’s lasting gift to the God-bothers.
I predict a realignment in the Faith space over the next few years as people become disillusioned with the radical nature of their policy positions, especially in the Evangelical churches, and so it would see the vote tied to MPs like Sukkar who count on them to keep them in parliament, fall away, and maybe make that 264 vote buffer evaporate. 🙂
Ven: “So after 9 years of atrocious LNP government, ALP PV remains at its lowest levels. ”
You realize the ALP has more seats than the 2019 Morrison gov, and the same number of seats as the Turnbull gov, yes? And the LNP now has the worst seat count since the 1940’s?
Tell me again how this is a problem for the ALP?
@zoomster
What you talk about at state level has never been replicated federally, at least not in the modern era. In fact that first trip back to the polls has proved to be a tricky one for the last four federal governments who all bled votes and seats.
The last four Federal governments Hawke, Keating – Howard – Rudd, Gillard, Rudd and Abbott, Turnbull, Morrisson could not increase their primary or two party preferred vote beyond what they achieved when they won from opposition.
The degree of difficulty managing community expectations is much higher at the Federal level than state government.
Labor will have to defy history to increase their majority next time. Labor minority is what I would have as the most likely result next time if I was framing a market.