The local branch of international communications firm SEC Newgate has published a post-election survey as part of a regular monthly series that had hitherto escaped my notice. Among its findings are that 28% of Labor voters at the election had voted for a different party or candidate in 2019, and that the party had “regained some traction with its traditional base”, particularly among middle-aged men. Conversely, the flight to the Greens and independents was driven overwhelmingly by women.
The survey also found 54% felt Australia was headed in the right direction post-election, up from 47% in April, and 52% felt the success of independents was good for Australia. Labor was considered the best party to handle housing by 42% to 25%, although its policy for partial government investment in private homes had only 38% support. The Coalition’s policy to allow first home buyers to draw on their superannuation was supported and opposed by 40% apiece, but its “downsizer” reforms were supported by 52% and opposed by 18%. Fifty-nine per cent supported an indigenous voice to parliament, with only 16% opposed. The survey was conducted May 23 to 27 from a sample of 1403.
Note also the post below dealing with the election result in the two Northern Territory seats, in what will be the first of a number of “call of the board” posts. It also marks a new leaf I’m at least planning on turning over in which I will increase the frequency of specialised posts with on-topic discussion threads, distinct from the usual poll-driven open threads like this one. We’ll see if I’m actually able to devote enough energy to the blog to make this viable long term. In any case, the open thread posts will henceforth be designated as such in their titles, as per the above.
Q: reinventing themselves as the workers’ friend.
Yes, the friend that cut penalty rates, opposed wage rises, unleashed the gig economy etc…..
Some friend.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #1598 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 9:18 pm
He’s supposed to have seen the writing on the wall. Maybe it was another soaring eagle picture? 😉
Pi at 6.50
Thanks for the info re pumped hydro & domestic turbines.
Kidston sounds like an impressive project.
Torchbearer @ #1602 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 9:30 pm
By appealing to the mythos of the poorly-educated, social conservative working class individual.
Lars at 6.58
“Ask yourself what would Peter Dutton want, WWPDW?
Would he want Labor to have a positive or antagonistic relationship with the Greens?”
Tricky (not, I presume, trick) question. If Labor work well with Greens, Dutton gets to campaign on ‘Labor-Greens Coalition’ which he might think would work well in regions/outer ‘burbs. If Greens block key Labor stuff, Dutton gets to campaign on an ‘ineffective’ Labor govt.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga:
Sunday, June 12, 2022, at 9:24 pm
[‘How is leadership the problem when the policies don’t change irrespectively who the leader is?’]
Max Weber described charismatic authority in depth. One thus deposed can sell policies, even if they’re against one’s better interests. Whitlam & Hawke possessed said quality. I can’t think of any others since Curtain, Chifley though theirs were qualitatively different – given the times.
R Middle aged Balding White Man at 9.07 pm
The DLP as an analogy for the Teals is enticing but not yet accurate. The DLP had institutional bases that were previously linked to Labor. There was a powerful international context. Billy McMahon wrote, as PM, on External Affairs papers recommending movement toward recognition of the PRC as China in 1970/71, “don’t forget we have a DLP!”. His foreign policy was done mainly to suit the DLP.
The DLP had Senate representation for 6 elections from 1955, culminating in 5 senators in 1970. From 1967 the DLP had a balance of power position in the Senate, i.e. had they voted with Labor (at 27) then the Coalition (at 28) would have lost (the DLP got 4 senators after the 1966 election). There is no sign yet of the Teals getting institutionally organised to win Senate seats, and it would be hard for them to attain that unless the Libs south of Qld split. If that happens in Act II then it will get a bit interesting.
Dr Doolittle earlier today
Surely, Pocock won’t need to stand again until 2028, unless there’s a DD??
Boerwar at 7.10
“I would have thought that a bit of ‘quiet reflection’ along with a bit of ‘humble pie’ and a bit of ‘we have heard you’ and we will be aiming to ‘keep Labor civil’ was in order.
What surprised me quite a bit was more of the same. They have kept right on with the politics of saying stupid and untrue things.
Zero reset. They must be hoping that the hip pocket nerves are jangling in 2025.”
The Opposition’s behaviour is consistent with the paradigm ‘When the Left loses, they get sad; when the Right loses, they get mad.’ [‘Mad’ meaning ‘angry’.]
After 2019, Labor committed to listening: they accepted that they lost.
After 2022, the Coalition are telling the electorate they just felt like changing curtains etc and Labor are a ‘bad’ govt. Thus, the electorate were either stupid or deceived (that’s the bit they don’t quite say out loud.)
In the US, Republican states are rapidly enshrining voter suppression in law. They’re getting mad. The Coalition has far less room to move in this space. They just have to live in an alternate reality in which any Labor govt is a temporary blip. One of many reasons why Hawke/Keating was a beautiful time.
On voter suppression/electoral manipulation: watch out for snakes in the grass like Jim Reed, suggesting we adopt FPTP. I expect various attempts to alter our voting system – each one of them ‘purely coincidentally’ favouring the Coalition.
AR, Boerwar
I saw some comments on EVs and fast charging before. AR is correct. Surveys show most EVs (>90%) are charged at home most of the time (>80%). We will need enough fast chargers for the % of people who are making longer journeys.
If you do the maths this turns out to be an obvious conclusion. The average Aussie car does 13,000km per year, about 40km per day or 250km per week. Long trips are less than 10% of overall car usage.
So the solution is lots of solar panels on homes. This is great because, compared to cars ($30k to $50k) PV panels ($6k) are cheap. An EV and panels eliminate a households power AND fuel bills. This will be a great long term saving for households.
Confessions at 7.14
“Border security officials failed to thoroughly search the mobile phone of one of Australia’s most notorious paedophiles at Melbourne Airport in 2015 despite being warned the 64-year-old was a suspected child sex offender travelling overseas with a minor.
The victim, Tiffany Skeggs, has now told The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald and 60 Minutes that at the time, both her phone and that of offender James Griffin contained “extremely exploitative and pornographic material of myself [aged 15] for certain”.
Griffin was a pediatric nurse who was employed at several Tasmanian government institutions who may have abused or groomed up to 30 children. Tasmanian police have already faced searing public scrutiny for their failures to act on multiple tip-offs over many years about Griffin. He killed himself before any of his victims could see him face justice.
After the failed search in 2015 the pair, who were returning from Turkey, went back to Tasmania. Skeggs was 17 at the time of the trip, and her abuse at Griffin’s hands did not stop until she was 19. Until now the details of his interaction with the Australian Border Force have remained clouded by agency secrecy.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/border-force-missed-evidence-of-sexual-abuse-then-it-continued-for-years-victim-20220609-p5asjl.html”
Stopped boats. Either complicitly or incompetently shielded this paedohile. End the black shirts now.
”Surely, Pocock won’t need to stand again until 2028, unless there’s a DD??”
Territory Senators face re-election at each House election.
Scomo a Gone Gone says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 9:54 pm
Dr Doolittle earlier today
but if Pocock is not returned in 2025
Surely, Pocock won’t need to stand again until 2028, unless there’s a DD??
__________________
Isnt Pocock from the ACT?, Territory senators only last for the term of the reps so up for re-election in ’25 or sooner
I’m finding the comments on this blog difficult to wade through so don’t know if this has been posted.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/phone-voters-stuck-at-home-with-covid-19-were-more-likely-to-back-labor-20220607-p5arlb.html
John in Highgate 6003 @ Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 10:08 pm
I hadn’t seen it so thank you from me.
The Lying Reactionaries are living in the wrong century. Perhaps they would be more at home in the 1850s. They sure do not belong in the current era and have no appetite whatsoever for the future – for that which lies ahead for us all. They must have found out by now that the Parliament is not a time machine. Perhaps this explains why it met so rarely while they were in office. They cannot repeal the direction of time, much as they might dream of it. They have been playing dress-ups for the last 25 years and really have lost the ability to distinguish between fantasy and fact. It’s no surprise at all that the evangelicals have the numbers inside cloister.
Here’s this years Queen’s Birthday Honours List:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/queen-s-birthday-2022-honours-the-full-list-20220609-p5askg.html
Pi at 8.29
“I can’t believe the complete absence of analysis on the existential crisis that the libs are experiencing. They have lost all of their blue ribbon seats. All of them. Surely this is noteworthy?”
It’s noteworthy. It’s just not newsworthy, apparently.
Warney gets a posthumous award and Ash Barty gets her just desserts.
Scomo a Gone Gone:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 9:54 pm
[‘Surely, Pocock won’t need to stand again until 2028, unless there’s a DD??’]
Yes, I think he gets six years but it might be different in the ACT and there won’t be a DD. I’ve written to Pocock seeking to allow all rugger matches to be broadcast free-to-air, not just when the Wallabies play. For instance, unless a Stan subscriber, we’ll miss the Crusaders -v- the Blues. Pepys.
William Bowe says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 9:00 pm
On the evidently doctored edition of Insiders that I saw this morning, it was repeatedly stressed that the Morrison government was “unable to get the progress that Chris Bowen was able to get this week” and “has to take political responsibility for its failure”, that Anthony Albanese “has performed very well” on the international stage, and that the opposition’s response on the submarine issue was “kind of embarrassing”. I repeatedly found myself wondering how this comments thread would look if the party positions were reversed in all this — to which I guess the answer is, not all that different really.
It sounds the like the on air version I watched. I was surprised. I am glad to learn it was a doctored version. I suppose the Spears interview seeking information instead of gotcha’s should have been the give away.
Nah, Mavis, just googled it, d’oh, its every House election (3 years) Christ knows what happens at half senate elections…
Socrates says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 9:58 pm
….
So the solution is lots of solar panels on homes. This is great because, compared to cars ($30k to $50k) PV panels ($6k) are cheap. An EV and panels eliminate a households power AND fuel bills. This will be a great long term saving for households.
As most of the cars are not at home when the sun shines, the solution is solar plus batteries.
Solar plus community batteries make a lot of sense.
1) Battery set is maintained by the utility.
2 The battery set can store energy from all the solar system on the LV side, based on the LV voltage. This increases the solar capacity that can be installed.
3) The utility can control charge and discharge based on wider system needs if communication is installed.
WB @ 9:00pm
“On the evidently doctored edition of Insiders that I saw this morning,”
Doctored how?? Or is this humor from WB?? 🙂
“I repeatedly found myself wondering how this comments thread would look if the party positions were reversed in all this — to which I guess the answer is, not all that different really.”
As to the quality of this episode of Insiders i think a lot of commenters here would have still appreciated the tone. I think though if the “party positions were reversed” then the Libs may well have not lost the last election and some of us may not even be out from under the doona yet.
is there an “”undoctored” version around like on iview??
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/phone-voters-stuck-at-home-with-covid-19-were-more-likely-to-back-labor-20220607-p5arlb.html
Ta fer dat link.
10% difference? Maybe more of the people stuck in iso with covid on the day (me fer one) who were motivated to go to the effort of voting on that format, were people who REALLY wanted to see a change and so more likely to make the effort??
Scomo a Gone Gone:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 10:27 pm
[‘Nah, Mavis, just googled it, d’oh, its every House election (3 years) Christ knows what happens at half senate elections…’]
Oh well. If it’s only three years, he has the time to make his mark. I’m sure he will. I think he’ll be a tough negotiator.
Re Boerwar at 9.03 pm
Mike MccGwire’s view of so-called nuclear “crisis management”, which is presumed workable by advocates of nuclear deterrence, was that it is a dangerous myth. He warned specifically that crises are best avoided diplomatically, because in practice (“fog of war” etc) they are very hard to manage well. The history of the Cuban missile crisis, including McNamara’s recollections, illustrates this clearly.
NATO (i.e. Biden) said clearly it would not intervene with troops to defend Ukraine. It has refused all Ukrainian pleas to stop Russian missile attacks (close the skies) because of how Putin might react. Putin’s nuclear threats were clumsily made early in the war, when NATO said it would not intervene. If Putin was worried that NATO would intervene on the ground, his worries did not reflect evidence. More likely that he was just recklessly behaving like gung-ho bullies do, without any detailed plans.
Russian propaganda has been talking up threats to attack convoys supplying weapons to Ukraine, but the Russian military might not have enough real time info to attack those accurately, as distinct from blowing up ever more civilians. This is apparently perplexing even to some former pro-Westerners in Moscow (e.g. Dmitri Trenin) who have swung in lock-step behind Putin’s terror and belligerence. For an example see:
https://inews.co.uk/news/world/putins-focus-on-donbas-will-allow-it-to-step-up-bombardment-of-ukraines-roads-and-railways-1613061
Trenin there can’t understand why Russia hasn’t bombed more Ukrainian infrastructure, seeing it as a strange policy decision. But a UK observer suggests it may reflect limited Russian target capacity.
According to internal critics of Putin’s invasion, such as Andrey Kortunov, the biggest worry is not an escalation of the war on land but an escalation in the Black Sea, which remains a serious risk given the awful global consequences of the Russian blockade of Ukrainian grain exports.
Kortunov is misread by some in the West (e.g. French historian and Macron critic Francoise Thom) as a Kremlin spokesman. While the actual Kremlin spokesman, Peskov, is on the board of the Russian International Affairs Council (which Kortunov has directed for 11 years), Kortunov is an advocate for a diplomatic end to the war, which remains a minority position within the Russian political elite. You can read Kortunov’s assessment of two opposing views within the Russian elite in early April at:
https://www.memri.org/reports/russian-international-affairs-council-director-kortunov-within-russia-two-fundamentally
Thom’s dubious view is at: https://en.desk-russie.eu/2022/05/20/the-other-russian-offensive.html
MccGwire was one of many in the West who warned that NATO expansion eastwards was a historic error, not merely because it breached a promise to Gorbachev in early 1990, but more so because it increased the risk of a serious geopolitical crisis spiralling catastrophically out of control. Until there is a cease-fire that really holds, that grave risk remains. The longer we go without any talks between Russia and Ukraine about a cease-fire (now 10 weeks since late March), the bigger the risk becomes.
imacca ,
I guess what I saw this morning was a set of people, who happen to be employed as journalists, treating their job pretty seriously. I wonder if a habbit will form.
It’s just striking that they’ve decided to only now start behaving this way.
“I wonder if a habbit will form.”
Can hope so. Think that the senseless pack of yapping Hyena’s “on the campaign trail” during the election may have been the low point of political journalism in Australia.
It’s been pointed out that the reason the Covid phone votes favour Labor is largely because conservative voters are less likely to actually test for if they have Covid in the first place, or follow the rules if they’re +ve.
It came in at #13.
I didn’t look too far back through the countdown, but I didn’t see any “shocking” placeholders.
Dr Doolittle
Thanks for that reporting on the Ukraine war.
Personally, I cannot defend the reluctance of EU and other nations to send more weapons to assist Ukraine win the land (and sea) war. A Black Sea grain blockade is disastrous for much of the world now, and Russia is already exploiting it to sell its own grain at higher prices. Russia is desperate to fund its war so this will not stop.
If the war continues or Russia gains control why would this stop? It will only get worse, with Russia in a stronger financial position. So logically western countries have a rational self interest to arm Ukraine to defeat Russian forces, at least in the Black Sea. Ending the blockade helps all concerned.
Obviously Russia is a nuclear power and there is a risk of escalation. But that risk exists for every scenario except Russian victory. That outcome only increases the odds Russia will try the same tactic again in future, confident the west will not respond for fear of the nuclear threat.
Yet rhetoric aside Putin is not irrational. He has made a big mistake, and may fear for his own political future if he loses. But even his grain blockade is quite calculated. He must know nuclear escalation would trigger a severe response. So I find it hard to beleive he will enforce that bluff unless Russia itself is threatened, which is not the case.
So Europe needs to show some leadership and call his bluff, IMO.
Frednk
Yes Batteries are a logical solution too. Though cars are at home during the day more than people assume, based on the survey, at least on the weekend. Most EV batteries are already big enough to power a car for a working week and recharge on the weekend.
There is also a lot of discussion in the infrastructure field about options like large scale PV panels on rooves to allow EV charging at shopping centre and office car parks etc. This may be cheaper than the battery option. The PV panels are cheap.
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 9:45 pm
R Middle aged Balding White Man at 9.07 pm
The DLP as an analogy for the Teals is enticing but not yet accurate. The DLP had institutional bases that were previously linked to Labor. There was a powerful international context. Billy McMahon wrote, as PM, on External Affairs papers recommending movement toward recognition of the PRC as China in 1970/71, “don’t forget we have a DLP!”. His foreign policy was done mainly to suit the DLP.
———————————————–
Sure we’re operating in a very different environment to what the DLP was responding to, but it seems comparable in that teals seem to be acting as a similar vehicle of sorts to move people away from preferring a party that people were once very loyal too but are no longer representative of their views though at the same time can’t bring themselves to vote in sufficient numbers to elect a Labor or Green member at this point.
Probably the difference now is both major parties are seeing splintering of votes to other candidates to the point we’ve seen a breakout in the number of crossbenchers at this election and that will likely enlarge if the current trends continue. The Liberals have lost the moderate members they needed to possibly remain relevant in the current and future political context. So while it may be difficult for Labor to win majority govt in future but it seems more difficult to see the LNP getting close to a majority or convincing enough crossbenchers to side with them in any minority govt negotiations.
New thread.