The local branch of international communications firm SEC Newgate has published a post-election survey as part of a regular monthly series that had hitherto escaped my notice. Among its findings are that 28% of Labor voters at the election had voted for a different party or candidate in 2019, and that the party had “regained some traction with its traditional base”, particularly among middle-aged men. Conversely, the flight to the Greens and independents was driven overwhelmingly by women.
The survey also found 54% felt Australia was headed in the right direction post-election, up from 47% in April, and 52% felt the success of independents was good for Australia. Labor was considered the best party to handle housing by 42% to 25%, although its policy for partial government investment in private homes had only 38% support. The Coalition’s policy to allow first home buyers to draw on their superannuation was supported and opposed by 40% apiece, but its “downsizer” reforms were supported by 52% and opposed by 18%. Fifty-nine per cent supported an indigenous voice to parliament, with only 16% opposed. The survey was conducted May 23 to 27 from a sample of 1403.
Note also the post below dealing with the election result in the two Northern Territory seats, in what will be the first of a number of “call of the board” posts. It also marks a new leaf I’m at least planning on turning over in which I will increase the frequency of specialised posts with on-topic discussion threads, distinct from the usual poll-driven open threads like this one. We’ll see if I’m actually able to devote enough energy to the blog to make this viable long term. In any case, the open thread posts will henceforth be designated as such in their titles, as per the above.
a r @ #1545 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 5:49 pm
That pain would be electricity shortages, something no Government is going to allow.
Peak SfM.
Morrison apparently pitching a plan whereby the Queensland LNP brand becomes the model for the merger of the Nationals and Liberals. Meanwhile a new progressive liberal party competes with the Teals. Together, they form a new Coalition.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1551 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 7:55 pm
**cough**domestic gas reservation trigger**cough**
Mavis @ #1540 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 7:47 pm
The Labor right hate the Greens more than the LNP.
No-one should underestimate the fury that negotiating with the Greens will bring to the Labor right faction.
Rex, I think Milner has already predicted one term only for Albo before he is replaced. Late 2024 would be the normal time I guess.
citizen @ #1463 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 5:48 pm
Some of them are a bit confused. Previously they were claiming that covid was just the flu and no more dangerous. Now they claim that it’s the same old flu and no more dangerous that the covid. And it’s all Big Pharma? booo.
nath, I think The Real Liberals ™ could have some legs.
The old RWNJ Liberals could merge with the Dutton Queenslanders as the LNP – they have a solid base of 30-40 seats.
Only problem is the silver tails and latte sippers think they are banjo playing bogans – harsh, but fair call. So what to do?
Invent the New Liberals ™ to win back the Teal seats and some like Higgins, Bennelong, Reid, Brisbane, Ryan, Boothby and the WA seats which have strayed. Why did they stray? Because the LNP wing are anti-women, anti-Climate Change, anti-integrity.
So brand The New Liberals ™ as pro everything the LNP is anti. And when you win enough seats back, form a Coalition with the banjo players.
Re Lars @8:05. Milner – would that be the English soccer player? Some Murdoch hack?
The wild card with the Teals is Allegra Spender.
Famously the Spender clan purchased a Manhattan bolt hole before the Turnbully.
No Steve777 – Bill Shorten’s former COS.
Lars, do you think the Liberals should go for the Truth and Reconciliation stage first?
Or skip,that and proceed directly to the orderly liquidation.?
Cameron Milner has sold his integrity for the grubby Murdoch shilling
Voice endeavour @ #1495 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 4:45 pm
No, Labor’s programme is based on science, lots of different sciences.
Science says, that if your power supply isn’t connected to the grid, then no one can use that power except yourself.
Emerging from the void of the the past nine wears, targets have little meaning, the important thing is getting the infrastructure in place, so that new renewable sources are able to be fed into the grid.
Also, as more parts of our society move away from fossil fuels, new demands will be made on the electricity network, so it’s not a case of just replacing the output of our current fossil fuel power supplies, we need to increase the amount of electricity we are producing.
”
nathsays:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 7:58 pm
Peak SfM.
Morrison apparently pitching a plan whereby the Queensland LNP brand becomes the model for the merger of the Nationals and Liberals. Meanwhile a new progressive liberal party competes with the Teals. Together, they form a new Coalition.
”
So Morrison conceded that Nats have consumed the modern Liberal party thanks to people like Abbott, Morrison and Dutton in other words Liberal party has more in common with Nats than so-called Liberal moderates.
Rex Douglas:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 8:01 pm
[‘The Labor right hate the Greens more than the LNP.
No-one should underestimate the fury that negotiating with the Greens will bring to the Labor right faction.’]
I don’t disagree with your first premise though I don’t understand it given that Green preferences overwhelming favour Labor. Having said that, I have much confidence in
Albanese’s ability to sort out this dichotomy. And I verily consider the PM to be underestimated in said regard, bearing in mind he has 26 years of experience in the House.
sprocket: “So brand The New Liberals ™ as pro everything the LNP is anti. And when you win enough seats back, form a Coalition with the banjo players.”
What do you think they might call this hypothetical party? This coalition of toffs and banjo players?
A merger of the Liberals, Nationals, LDP, patriarchal Christian groups and some of the saner elements of One Nation into a grand right-wing coalition which calls itself something like “Team Australia”, “Australian Values “, “Advance Australia” or something else patriotic-sounding would actually make sense, not that I would ever put them above last on my ballot.
Lol Sprocket, dont know.
We have replaced one group of idiots (ScoMo’s gang) for another group of idiots (Albo’s gang).
What to do? Make sure your tax planning is up to date?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1563 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 8:15 pm
Let me guess: Astrology? Numerology? Homeopathy? Reflexology? Iridology?
The one science it is certainly not based on is climate science.
nathsays:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 7:58 pm
Peak SfM.
Morrison apparently pitching a plan whereby the Queensland LNP brand becomes the model for the merger of the Nationals and Liberals. Meanwhile a new progressive liberal party competes with the Teals. Together, they form a new Coalition.
—————————————————–
Is anyone in the LNP listening to Morrison after he managed to bleed 19 seats from the Liberals by his dumbarse “strategy” to throw away heartland inner metro seats for some non-existent gain in the outer suburbs. A progressive liberal subsidiary would have no credibility if it was created by the LNP, it would just be another cynical marketing stunt and a further insult to the intelligence of the voters it targeted – and anyway the horse has already bolted. I think a lot of those that went teal won’t be returning to voting Liberal anytime soon, will probably be looked back on as the LNP’s version of the Labor/DLP split.
I can’t believe the complete absence of analysis on the existential crisis that the libs are experiencing. They have lost all of their blue ribbon seats. All of them. Surely this is noteworthy?
Lars Von Trier @ #1568 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 8:21 pm
Make sure your insurance policy is up to date.
Indeed, only in 1984 did Labor win more Senators than the Coalition, and never since then.
Coalition = TWO political parties
Labor = ONE political party
So, is it any surprise that Labor doesn’t often beat the Coalition in the Senate?
Now, add The Greens’ Senators to Labor’s, even though they aren’t in a formal coalition, and get back to me.
Player One @ #1566 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 6:27 pm
You constantly demonstrate how little you understand.
Barney at 5.26
“Labor’s programme is based on science, it’s also based on what is practical and possible, and finally it’s based on what the majority of the population is willing to accept at this time.
We could of course go back to the previous Government and do fuck all.”
I disagree Barney. The previous govt did far less than fuck all. For example, they refused some major renewables projects on spurious ‘environmental’ grounds. They were a climate action black hole.
And I still really enjoy using the past tense in relation to the well-described ‘corruption of thieves’! Not getting old!
Loss is such a difficult concept which people experience differently Pi. Some people experience a loss and are in denial, others are angry, some do not want to discuss their loss, rarely do people reflect on the causes of their loss.
Pi @ #1571 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 8:29 pm
The RW media are trying very, very hard not to highlight it. Instead, they are entertaining Morrison’s latest brainfart that sees the Teals willingly getting back under the doona with a nationalised LNP + the so-called ‘Modern Liberals’ and running split tickets to confound people into voting for Joyce, Morrison and Canavan.
It’s insanity.
Jen must be going nuts having this man around the house all day!
Apropos of nothing much, today QE2 is second only to Louis XIV for regnant longevity, who ruled for 72 years and 110 days.
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 8:08 pm
nath, I think The Real Liberals ™ could have some legs.
_____________
I think it will be a failed re branding exercise. It is just basically excising the moderate faction as a junior coalition partner. The future of those Teal seats is fascinating conjecture however. I think OC was right on the night of the election to question whether those seats will ever vote ALP. I think they might, provided the ALP moved to become a genuine Social Democratic party, separate itself from the union movement and excise elements such as the SDA.
Who knows what the future holds for our leafy seats.
Re Pi at 8.29 pm
Not all blue rinse Lib seats lost, but their PV in Berowra did slip to 49%. Even Bob McMullan failed to highlight the historic importance of the Lib heartland losses (see BK patrol Sat). It was worth more attention than his 5th point postulating a trend covering two quite types of different seats (Lindsay and McEwen, i.e. outer urban and semi-rural) whose results are explicable mainly by local factors.
The Libs’ crisis has had a very long prologue but we are still only near the start of Act I. Even some in the media might note the depth of Libs’ problem when we get to Act II and later. Dutton will deepen it.
Pretty wild insiders today. I’m just waiting the rerun and you gotta wonder, where were these ‘journalists’ for the last 9 years.
They (ALP) really need to do something to clear out the ABC board and reset the culture in that organization.
Boerwar @ #1513 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 7:00 pm
Not quite. Home charging will be the new normal. And it probably won’t push past 10-20kW for some time. That’s more than adequate, and will be the preferred option for anyone with their own house or living in a unit with a dedicated internal/sheltered parking spot.
Fast charging will be the norm for roadside public infrastructure intended to service people traveling long distances from home, and some local charging stations to accommodate people who lack access to home charging. But it will never be installed at densities rivaling what we currently see with petrol stations.
Petrol stations are as common as they are because nobody has a petrol supply installed at home. That removes the possibility of refueling at home, and also pushes people towards a use-case where they drive their vehicle until it’s nearly empty before refueling.
That doesn’t apply with electricity, and the use-case for an EV is entirely different when “refueling”. You just top it up overnight and then start every morning with a full tank. More like a cell-phone than a petrol car. Most EV’s will be charged slowly, at home, most of the time.
‘Ven says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 7:30 pm
”
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 7:14 pm
Ven
Yep – but how much? The Parkies are getting substantial emergency response equipment and positions.
”
BW
1. Emergency services will get 100 new permanent fire fighters in this budget ( imagine LNP increasing Government jobs. They usual cut Government jobs in Emergency and Aboriginal services)
2. Aboriginal services budget will increase from 20 million to 400 million dollars.
DoPe actually went to Aboriginal services office in a regional area and sat and talked to Aboriginal reps. It may or may not mean much but I cannot remember a Lib Premier sitting with Aboriginal reps previously outside Macquarie Street office premises. Would you believe that I didn’t know that NSW Aboriginal services Minister name is Mr. Franklin.’
—————————————————
That sounds OK to me!
ar
Thanks. I stand clarified.
On the evidently doctored edition of Insiders that I saw this morning, it was repeatedly stressed that the Morrison government was “unable to get the progress that Chris Bowen was able to get this week” and “has to take political responsibility for its failure”, that Anthony Albanese “has performed very well” on the international stage, and that the opposition’s response on the submarine issue was “kind of embarrassing”. I repeatedly found myself wondering how this comments thread would look if the party positions were reversed in all this — to which I guess the answer is, not all that different really.
I believe I may have missed both versions of Insiders this morning.
It does make you laugh, a disaster result for the Liberals from the Teals, the rejections of the culture wars and the lurch towards a US republican style religious right agenda and the solution is a ‘rebranding’ with a moderate name to hide the true intent.
It sums up SfM to a tea all spin and image and nothing else, and all that has been wrong over the past 9 years – no attempt to even acknowledge the fundamental problems just cover it up and bullshit your way out of it and hope the voters a fooled by a shiny new brand. Once a marketing guy always a marketing guy.
Dr Doolittle
Thanks for the link on deterrence article. It was an interesting read. I wonder whether it would be re-written a tad now that Putin has threatened to go nuclear if NATO intervenes on the ground in Ukraine.
What does Bob McMullan’s article mean? Labor did ok but its too early to tell what the election means or whether the trends will continue? Is that a fair summary?
Dr Fumbles,
Scott Morrison is truly delusional. He must be constantly bugging Peter Dutton with his crazy ideas. He’s worse than the manic Kevin Rudd!
It’s well known that everyone associated with Insiders, cameramen and all, were seen muttering ‘we lost’ for days after the election.
No Newspoll tonight?
Pi says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 8:29 pm
I can’t believe the complete absence of analysis on the existential crisis that the libs are experiencing. They have lost all of their blue ribbon seats. All of them. Surely this is noteworthy?
Dr Doolittle says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 8:48 pm
Re Pi at 8.29 pm
……….
The Libs’ crisis has had a very long prologue but we are still only near the start of Act I. Even some in the media might note the depth of Libs’ problem when we get to Act II and later. Dutton will deepen it.
________________________________
The LNP flunky press and The Libs, Darth Tater in particular have not yet passed denial. They are still to recognise they have even lost the election let alone destroyed their own party.
This is all very DLP.
Independents, once installed usually keep their seats as long as they want them.
There has been absolutely no analysis as yet of what happened to the Libs. When it comes it will be brutal. In short they abandoned their base. They took them for granted and then listened only to themselves. They are busy saying it was all Scomo’s fault when he was merely the product of a rotten party. He was the symptom and not the disease. Remember Abbott thinks he is a centrist! These MEN are stuck in the 1950s. They think men have jobs and the little women do the ironing – remember that’s why the Women of Australia were so delighted at the abolition of the Carbon Tax. Looks like they forgot to ask the little women!
Let’s hope the ALP members can shove their egos back in their backpacks.
Darth Tater..
Middle aged Balding White Man @ Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 9:07 pm
Good post.
Anyone who has the Paramount+ streaming service should check out The Offer, a drama series on how The Godfather was made. Great stuff.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 9:05 pm
Dr Fumbles,
Scott Morrison is truly delusional. He must be constantly bugging Peter Dutton with his crazy ideas. He’s worse than the manic Kevin Rudd!
______________________
Cat, who knows, maybe we will get a rerun of the RGR wars but instead the Spud/SfM/Spud wars if he hangs around in parliament, got to be an agenda if not doing the Honorable thing of going with dignity into obscurity perhaps he is that delusional he can make a comeback, after all his hero is Trump
Where are the conservatives heading and is Dutton the answer? Who knows who can they latch onto? History reveals that once ensconced, independents are fairly hard to dislodge. Perhaps we’re witnessing a Kuhnian-like shift.
Maybe the Tories will turn 180 degrees, reinventing themselves as the workers’ friend. But I think they’re stuffed until they find a charismatic leader, and other than Tehan, there’s no one who impresses – and I’m being very kind.
Mavis @ #1596 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 7:19 pm
How is leadership the problem when the policies don’t change irrespectively who the leader is?
edit for grammar.
@Barney in Tanjung Bunga
Especially given Duttons mutterings that the party needs to move further the the right, I cant see a radical change for the better coming anytime soon