The local branch of international communications firm SEC Newgate has published a post-election survey as part of a regular monthly series that had hitherto escaped my notice. Among its findings are that 28% of Labor voters at the election had voted for a different party or candidate in 2019, and that the party had “regained some traction with its traditional base”, particularly among middle-aged men. Conversely, the flight to the Greens and independents was driven overwhelmingly by women.
The survey also found 54% felt Australia was headed in the right direction post-election, up from 47% in April, and 52% felt the success of independents was good for Australia. Labor was considered the best party to handle housing by 42% to 25%, although its policy for partial government investment in private homes had only 38% support. The Coalition’s policy to allow first home buyers to draw on their superannuation was supported and opposed by 40% apiece, but its “downsizer” reforms were supported by 52% and opposed by 18%. Fifty-nine per cent supported an indigenous voice to parliament, with only 16% opposed. The survey was conducted May 23 to 27 from a sample of 1403.
Note also the post below dealing with the election result in the two Northern Territory seats, in what will be the first of a number of “call of the board” posts. It also marks a new leaf I’m at least planning on turning over in which I will increase the frequency of specialised posts with on-topic discussion threads, distinct from the usual poll-driven open threads like this one. We’ll see if I’m actually able to devote enough energy to the blog to make this viable long term. In any case, the open thread posts will henceforth be designated as such in their titles, as per the above.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1450 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 5:26 pm
So your view is that anything that is slightly better than fuck all is good enough?
This attitude is why we will fail.
We’ve talked a lot about future voting trends in the house, but what about the senate? I think its going to stay pretty consistent for a while as long as the voting system doesn’t change.
Unless there’s a DD the greens will stay rock solid on 12 for years to come, until maybe gaining a second seat for the first time in Tasmania or replacing Pocock in the ACT.
Labor seems to be quite wedged on their current seat count with limited ways to expand. They won 15 seats this time (13 for 6 years and 2 for 3 in NT and ACT), but if anything that could now be a high tide mark. Labors numbers will probably sit between 16 and 13 won per election unless there’s a major coalition win.
Coalition could remain stable in numbers unless something major happens like party collapse.
Teal senate seats seem unlikely in major states for now.
If, as some bludgers are urging, Labor refuses to engage the Greens and freezes them out, then I’d have no option but to support the proposition of a swift DD election as others have suggested.
Rex Douglas @ #1453 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 5:34 pm
No way would Labor risk a DD on climate. They would lose their majority.
Labor’s target is not based on science.
Labor’s target was set by forecasting where emissions would be, taking into account population and technology changes, existing state targets and the specific election commitments labor made. Those factors added together resulted in a 45% reduction (43% reduction from tech, pop and state policies and 2% from federal labor policies). Labor simply drew the target around the arrow.
By contrast, the ACT set their targets around the science – they took an objective of a certain amount of warming science said was tolerable, divided carbon budgets among all world jurisdictions and set targets that kept the act to the required carbon budget. They set the target and hope to hit it with the arrow
Player One @ #1450 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 3:29 pm
No, but because of the inaction of previous Governments we are not prepared properly for a full transition to renewables.
Labor’s initial focus is to put in place the missing pieces that will facilitate this transition.
Once that is complete the country will be in a position to step it up and transition fully to renewables.
Voice endeavour @ #1454 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 3:37 pm
So you’re a target fetisher.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1456 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 5:37 pm
Right. So you would be happy with 3 degrees? Or do you expect 4? Because your approach just blew 1.5 degrees out of the water, and very likely makes 2 degrees unachievable as well.
Player One @ #1451 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 5:37 pm
I think you’re right, but if the vibe of bludgers here mirrors the vibe in the party room, then a DD is a strong possibility.
Rex Douglas @ #1459 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 5:40 pm
Saner heads will prevail. There still are some in the Labor party.
Regarding emission targets or anything else, a Government intent on taking action can:
* Go for what’s achievable and not only get it done but ensure that it forms a base for further progress, or
* They could go for perfection and risk ending up with nothing because they couldn’t get agreement or because anything that might be achieved is torn down in a few years.
Politics is the art of the possible. What might be achievable is a matter for careful judgement. I think that Labor has it pretty much right so far.
It will also require negotiation, with the Teals and also the Greens and other cross-benchers. Labor can ask the Coalition if they want to come on board but I very much doubt that they’d want to. In any case they broke their word last time.
Rex Douglas @ #1389 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 5:40 pm
Thank god no one in power takes the slightest bit of notice of people like you.
As an aside, the right-wing ratbags who ferociously attacked Covid vaccinations seem to have no issue with flu vaccinations.
Are they 100 percent certain that Bill Gates hasn’t inserted mind altering chips into the flu vaccines a well as the Covid vaccines?
Player One @ #1457 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 3:40 pm
I’m for what is possible.
So seemingly is Labor.
You seem to have little appreciation for this.
Here they are, bumping into each other in a corridor:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/12/richard-marles-says-talks-with-china-possible-after-first-ministerial-contact-with-australia-in-two-years
Asha @ #1376 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 5:19 pm
Far better to mine asteroids. 🙂
https://youtu.be/CqhDuOSxTAk
Voice endeavour says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 5:37 pm
Labor’s target is not based on science.
….’
—————–
Labor’s target is based on getting into government and getting some action.
The Greens’ target is supposed to be based on science but it got only 12% of the vote. In other words, a totally useless target, just like all the other targets the Greens have set for the past 32 years.
OTOH, the Greens’ extinction target is absolutely not based on science. The very best thing that can be said for it is that the Greens are not in a position to implement it.
ItzaDream @ #1464 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 3:52 pm
Big corridor.
Rex, do you have any idea how political narratives work?
Albo is presenting a narrative that Labor will do exactly as it promised ie unlike the previous mob you can trust us to do exactly as we said we’re going to do- that his government will re-set how politics is managed in this country. The centrepiece of this is that what we promised is exactly what we deliver – no reneging, no new initiatives (unless in response to circumstances). yes there will be negotiations around the edges and small adjustments will be made but you’ve got a piece of your anatomy firmly in your hand if you think the greens are going to get away with holding the ALP to ransom. The political narrative emanating from this deliberative blocking will be devastating to them. Note that Albo has a 2 election strategy. Delivering in the 1st term is the basis upon which he intends to build that 2nd term.
Thanks Jackol. KWh. Wasn’t even thinking.
The Greens’ humanitarian plan is to allow Putin to smash Ukraine and the Ukrainians and then to provide him with humanitarian help to mop up the bits and pieces.
It is a plan, I suppose.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1464 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 5:49 pm
You apparently believe that really significant emissions reductions is not possible.
Like Labor, you have little or no ambition.
Gratuitous advice from the far-right fringe:
Player One @ #1471 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 3:57 pm
No, what I do acknowledge is you need to get the pieces in place first, once that happens then we can go our hardest.
Not much point building a solar or wind farm if you can’t connect it to the grid.
Greens love carping, ‘the science says…’, whilst ignoring what the electorate has just said. And that is that it supports the Labor Party policy.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1474 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 6:03 pm
So is that you can’t walk and chew gum at the same time?
Or is it that you think Labor cannot?
Excellent news that Australia/China dialogue has resumed.
Let’s hope Marles continued the great start to this Govt’s international diplomacy.
C@tmomma @ #1459 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 5:47 pm
Personal abuse from you and others is water off this ducks back.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 5:55 pm
ItzaDream @ #1464 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 3:52 pm
Here they are, bumping into each other in a corridor:
?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=ccff683a99f49eca055a51370f165756#image.jpeg
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/12/richard-marles-says-talks-with-china-possible-after-first-ministerial-contact-with-australia-in-two-years
Big corridor.
Nice of them to carry the little flags to put on the table that is in the corridor.
frednk: “Cars will be an enormous load, the issue with using cars for storage, the distribution system is not set up for that sort of supply from domestic installations. For community batteries you need something that you are sure is there.”
That’s like saying you need “base load”. It’s an implementation detail. I love community batteries, especially moving from the regionals in towards the population centres. But the powering oz policy has 400 community batteries (which is great). Even if we wanted to wishcast and say there may be 5000 one day… There should be 100K EVs per year soon.
There are 20 million cars on the road in oz. The aim will be to have at least 25% of those be EVs in the medium term. 10 years? 15? I don’t know anyone of any repute that isn’t accepting this as a minimum. 5 million EV cars. That’s 425GWh. 60% of our total daily grid draw. For something that spends most of its time sitting still.
And if you need your EV quickly, not on your regular schedule? Fast charge it. Like variability of connection, it’s an implementation detail.
‘frednk says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 6:12 pm
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 5:55 pm
ItzaDream @ #1464 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 3:52 pm
Here they are, bumping into each other in a corridor:
?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=ccff683a99f49eca055a51370f165756#image.jpeg
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/12/richard-marles-says-talks-with-china-possible-after-first-ministerial-contact-with-australia-in-two-years
Big corridor.
Nice of them to carry the little flags to put on the table that is in the corridor.’
——————————
LOL
Player One @ #1475 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 4:07 pm
So, are you going to invest in one that you know is going to sit idle for some time.
That’s one reason why coal plants still have value, they offer access to the grid when they’re closed.
Upgrading the grid is not an instant process, as it happens it will open up new areas for renewable development, but this will take time.
Pi says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 6:12 pm
..
And if you need your EV quickly, not on your regular schedule? Fast charge it. Like variability of connection, it’s an implementation detail.
Pi
I am not going to disagree with anything you say because I think it is a big issue.
Fast charging in the suburbs is a dream, we do not have the infrastructure to support it.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1482 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 6:15 pm
Odd how it always seems to come down to BURN MORE COAL, isn’t it? 🙁
A E at 10.53 re AUKUS sub options…
Of course, we all know by far the best solution to the ‘AUKUS/subs for Oz/timeliness’ issues is to bring the French into the partnership!
Yes…FAUKUS!
I want the 4 leaders to share a virtual press conference and announce THAT with straight faces!
Popping in after a day IRL. After catching up with the blog comments, I blame Asha for unleashing Player One upon the rest of us! You gave an inch…
Carry on, Your Majesty 😉
Rex Douglas @ #1408 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 6:10 pm
It’s not personal abuse. It’s just a fact. 😐
Catmomma – if the electorate supported labor’s policies, labor would have the numbers to pass legislation to enact their policies without relying on greens and pocock
Europe finally has its priorities sorted.
Beer is cheaper than petrol in the Netherlands.
Voice endeavour @ #1418 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 6:36 pm
voice endeavour,
If the electorate supported The Greens policies, they’d be the government.
Hi Boerwar,
My son asked me a question today that you might be able to answer. What does the ‘Van de’ before the rest of a Dutch surname stand for? 🙂
ve
The Greens were smashed in the 2022 election. Less than 12% of the primary vote. This is a comprehensive rejection of the Green’s policies including its climate targets.
It is time for the Greens to learn from the smashing drubbings they have received since the 1990’s.
What’s next?
That some here think that after leading the Labor opposition for three years, that Albanese is in any danger at all from anyone on the Labor side – in the foreseeable future – for the role of leader are deluded, or more likely, stirring the pot…..
I would think Dutton is immediately vulnerable, and unless all the paint comes off the boat, totally unelectable south of the NSW-Queensland border…..
Dutton has “Caretaker” written all over his face.
‘C@tmomma says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 6:38 pm
Hi Boerwar,
My son asked me a question today that you might be able to answer. What does the ‘Van de’ before the rest of a Dutch surname stand for? ‘
—————————-
‘from (the)’
Jaeger @ Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 4:38 pm
Disappointing that Michael Nyman isn’t in the top 10. I do think the soundtrack to The Piano is a contender both as standalone music, and as accompaniment to the film.
@cat and BW.
Right, so no party achieved enough support from the electorate to pass legislation, so passing legislation is down to negotiation rather than one party swinging their mandate around.
Labor can’t pass legislation without the greens or the liberals.
The greens can’t pass legislation without labor.
So they will work with each other.
As for the targets based on science thing, again stop making stuff up about what I’m saying.
Someone claimed labor’s target was based on science. I corrected them and provided an example of a government that did set targets based on science. It wasn’t a criticism of either government, it wasn’t a compliment for either. I was correcting a factual error.
hopefuly the government do not follow Bws advice and freeze out the greens as the history of dd elections is not great Turnbull in 2016 went to won and nelly lost government plus higher quoater means phon and uap have higheer chance labor should treet greens same as teels
@Cattomma doesn’t seem to fussed about diplomatic thaw with China as reported. I thought it was our moral imperative to go to war to protect some rocky islets in the South China Sea. But I guess the threat posed by the Greens gaining 4 seats requires a reassessment of our strategic posture.
Some more on the ‘bumping into the Chinese Minister for Defence in the corridor’
– a culmination of weeks of back channel discussions
– the meeting was set for 1 hour, by the Chinese
– the Chinese invited Marles and his delegation
– meeting held in Chinese rooms in the Shangri La, Singapore
– Marles was flanked by CDF General Angus Campbell on one side, Secretary Greg Moriarty on the other
– the public read-outs are for public consumption, the private ones are for the 5 Eyes
After 3 years of bellicose ‘reds under the beds’ and ‘Wuhan flu’ rhetoric by short pants Morrison and Dutton, we are close to normal service being resumed…
Which means strong diplomatic and security oriented engagement, and growing cooperation on trade and social interaction.
Griff @ #1495 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 6:41 pm
Waaayyy to arty farty. The jingly tuneful ones seem to be the popular ones.