The local branch of international communications firm SEC Newgate has published a post-election survey as part of a regular monthly series that had hitherto escaped my notice. Among its findings are that 28% of Labor voters at the election had voted for a different party or candidate in 2019, and that the party had “regained some traction with its traditional base”, particularly among middle-aged men. Conversely, the flight to the Greens and independents was driven overwhelmingly by women.
The survey also found 54% felt Australia was headed in the right direction post-election, up from 47% in April, and 52% felt the success of independents was good for Australia. Labor was considered the best party to handle housing by 42% to 25%, although its policy for partial government investment in private homes had only 38% support. The Coalition’s policy to allow first home buyers to draw on their superannuation was supported and opposed by 40% apiece, but its “downsizer” reforms were supported by 52% and opposed by 18%. Fifty-nine per cent supported an indigenous voice to parliament, with only 16% opposed. The survey was conducted May 23 to 27 from a sample of 1403.
Note also the post below dealing with the election result in the two Northern Territory seats, in what will be the first of a number of “call of the board” posts. It also marks a new leaf I’m at least planning on turning over in which I will increase the frequency of specialised posts with on-topic discussion threads, distinct from the usual poll-driven open threads like this one. We’ll see if I’m actually able to devote enough energy to the blog to make this viable long term. In any case, the open thread posts will henceforth be designated as such in their titles, as per the above.
Boerwar
Labor took specific policies to the election and came away with 1/3 of the seats, insufficient to pass their policies.
The greens took specific policies to the election and came away with 1/6 of the seats, insufficient to pass their policies.
Pockock took specific policies to the election and came away with a seat.
Individually, none of them can pass legislation. If any of them are as stubborn as you, none of them will pass legislation.
But if they can negotiate, they can all pass legislation that’s somewhere in between the three sets of election commitments they made.
‘Voice endeavour says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 4:29 pm
Defense ministers don’t just accidentally bump into each other in the corridor unless they intended to accidentally meet.’
———————-
We don’t know. There are 30 defence ministers at the meeting. The usual thing is that there are lots of formal meetings, side meetings, breakfasts, morning teas, and corridor meetings.
Not everything is pre-planned. Then again, not everything is an accident.
We just do not know.
Well said voice endeavour.
There’s a deal to be done – shock horror! Politics breaking out! Never!
Classic 100: Music for the Screen
https://www.abc.net.au/classic/2022/
‘Voice endeavour says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 4:34 pm
Boerwar
Labor took specific policies to the election and came away with 1/3 of the seats, insufficient to pass their policies.
The greens took specific policies to the election and came away with 1/6 of the seats, insufficient to pass their policies.
Pockock took specific policies to the election and came away with a seat.
Individually, none of them can pass legislation. If any of them are as stubborn as you, none of them will pass legislation.
But if they can negotiate, they can all pass legislation that’s somewhere in between the three sets of election commitments they made.’
—————————–
I see that you still don’t get it.
Albanese learned from the way the Greens fucked over Labor during the RGR years and then spent nine years fucking over Labor while Labor was in opposition. And then suddenly Bandt wants to be ‘friendly’ and ‘constructive’. Have you got any idea what that looks like from Albanese’s perspective?
You guys are going to be presented with a series of take-it or leave-it binaries. These will be based exactly on Labor’s campaign promises.
You may be able to persuade Dutton to join you and pass some amendments. You may be able to unite the cross benchers and the Liberals to block legislation.
Amended legislation will go straight back down to the House and the original legislation will be passed and sent back to the Senate.
But that is all for the Greens: delay, block, strut, stunt and enjoy.
Boerwar:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 4:28 pm
I think it was a little more substantive than an accidental bump. It’s been reported that Marles & Wei Fenghe spoke for around an hour. Dutton would be spitting chips.
BK @ #1388 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 4:21 pm
I dunno about that.
Seems a bit contradictory. I’m not sure anyone is comfortable when a country scales up their military capability.
That’s well said though.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/12/richard-marles-says-talks-with-china-possible-after-first-ministerial-contact-with-australia-in-two-years
Politically it is starting to feel as if the grown-ups are in charge. It’s been so long I’d forgotten how it feels. Style as strategy. In the short term that amounts to putting out fires, confidently and surely. That maturity and the comparison with the former government is what will win Albanese a second term.
As an aside, and this is just confirmation bias on my part, I was drawn to a Guardian article by Moya Sarner that asks what does it mean to be grown up? The article includes quotes from her book. It’s worth the few minutes of self-reflection, and may reward a similar exploration wrt political groups.
Rex Douglas @ #1386 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 1:59 pm
So you concede it’s an empty threat.
‘Mavis says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 4:39 pm
Boerwar:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 4:28 pm
I think it was a little more substantive than an accidental bump. It’s been reported that Marles & Wei Fenghe spoke for around an hour. Dutton would be spitting chips.’
———————-
Ah. Excellent. Marles had earlier reported just the bump and the introduction. I prefer ‘jaw jaw’ to ‘war war’ any day of the week.
Voice endeavour @ #1389 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 2:20 pm
What part of Labor’s programme is bad?
Oh great, they’re now going to vandalize the moon now* 😡
* SBS “Back to the moon”
‘Late Riser says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 4:41 pm
Politically it is starting to feel as if the grown-ups are in charge. It’s been so long I’d forgotten how it feels.
…’
———————
+1. Occasionally the Opposition comes up with something to remind just how appalling they were for nine years and how they have learned nothing at all from the past three months.
@bw – the greens have spent the last 9 years doing the same thing as the 6 before.
Advocating for a policy platform and doing their best to build popular support for it.
You consider it an attack, because you think the whole purpose of the greens party should be to win labor seats to advance labor party policy.
That’s not how political parties work.
Albo doesn’t hate the greens because they dare to have different policy goals. That’s why albo is pm and you are not. He’s good at politics.
‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 4:42 pm
Voice endeavour @ #1389 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 2:20 pm
….
What part of Labor’s programme is bad’
————————–
Exactemundo.
‘Voice endeavour says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 4:46 pm
@bw – the greens have spent the last 9 years doing the same thing as the 6 before.
Advocating for a policy platform and doing their best to build popular support for it.
You consider it an attack…’
——————-
I have no difficulty with the Greens explaining their policies and/or comparing their policies with other parties. In fact, as with the Stinker of the Extinction Policy, the impossibility of Bandt ‘Saving the Planet’ and the various costings shonks in the Greens policies, I personally wish far more time was spent in public unpacking the Greens’ policy bullshit.
I DO have a difficulty with the Greens pretending that Labor and the Coalition are the same. I can’t think of anything more vicious and nasty and false than that. Nine long years of it.
Anyway, the situation is that having stuck it to Labor for nine years The Greens Bandit can now have friendly and constructive relations with his mates Dutton and Littleproud. Enjoy.
@barney
On emissions, a ‘do nothing’ approach will see emissions reduce by 43% by 2030. Labor’s target is a 45% reduction. Ie labor’s policy is to reduce emissions by 2/57ths. Wow, that’ll save the planet.
On housing, labor abandoned anh policies to make housing more affordable, and just went with a policy that lets people gamble more while further driving up housing.
On defense, labor still want an offense force, designed around the goal of helping the USA kill dark skinned people and take their oil. Rather than basing defense strategy around defending Australia.
Labor continue the liberals policies of using torture to deter people from fleeing torture. Labor will at least smile at you while they torture you I guess.
Late Riser:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 4:41 pm
[‘Politically it is starting to feel as if the grown-ups are in charge. It’s been so long I’d forgotten how it feels.’]
Yeah! And ain’t it great.
__________________________________
Boerwar:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 4:41 pm
[I prefer ‘jaw jaw’ to ‘war war’ any day of the week.’]
So do I. And if it’s true that they had an hour meeting,
you’d think that Marles would have had an interpreter in toe. It seems to me that the meeting was planned. My respect for Marles is growing, once thinking he was a dud.
Mavis
Good points, IMO.
On Marles, it is too soon to say, one way or another.
It does rather feel that instead of having a corruption of thieves we have some decent adults in the room.
How refreshment!
The Spectator Index
BREAKING: Australia’s Defence Minister has met his Chinese counterpart, the first such meeting in over two years.
The moment Albanese and Bandt agree on Greens amendments to legislation, the agitation for a leadership transition to Chalmers will intensify.
‘Voice endeavour says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 4:52 pm
@barney
On emissions, a ‘do nothing’ approach will see emissions reduce by 43% by 2030. Labor’s target is a 45% reduction. Ie labor’s policy is to reduce emissions by 2/57ths. Wow, that’ll save the planet.
On housing, labor abandoned anh policies to make housing more affordable, and just went with a policy that lets people gamble more while further driving up housing.
On defense, labor still want an offense force, designed around the goal of helping the USA kill dark skinned people and take their oil. Rather than basing defense strategy around defending Australia.
Labor continue the liberals policies of using torture to deter people from fleeing torture. Labor will at least smile at you while they torture you I guess.’
=======================================
Here we have VE demonstrating EXACTLY why Labor will not do a deal with the Greens. One minute the Greens pretend they want to be ‘friendly’ and ‘constructive’ and in the same breath they shout to all and sundry that Labor is the devil incarnate.
Voice endeavour @ #1416 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 2:52 pm
So, nothing bad, just ideological differences and an ignorance as to how differing approaches to similar policies can produce very different outcomes.
Rex Douglas @ #1351 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 4:58 pm
Still making absolute crap up I see, Rex Douglas.
Honestly, what do you hope to gain from it?
Rex:
No, it won’t.
Scomo a Gone Gone:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 4:43 pm
[‘Oh great, they’re now going to vandalize the moon now* ‘]
What’s going on with the moon?
I wonder whether Voice Endeavour supports the Greens policy of not sending weapons to Ukraine but humanitarian aid.
Ukrainians are certainly going to need a LOT more humanitarian aid if no-one sends them weapons.
Bring on the light mobile force I say.
48bn in defence spending – huge peace dividend if peace with china breaks out.
I wonder whether Voice Endeavour agrees with his Disarmament Spokesperson that being concerned about the China-Solomons Pact shows that you are a ‘racist’?
Bang! David Rowe’s Mitch McConnell is a shocker!
Boerwar @ #1426 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 3:02 pm
Actual this quite mature for the Greens.
They seem to have considered the impact of their position and have responded accordingly.
I wonder whether Voice Endeavour has the faintest comprehension that Bandt’s promise to stop extinction by 2030 is both impossible and scientifically undesirable?
@bw – yea, I sure fell into that trap.
When asked what I don’t like about labor I identified 4 policies where I think the greens’ policies are better than labor’s.
How exactly does that make me evil?
@barney – you’re saying that labor’s got a different approach to the same policy as the liberals and that can produce better outcomes than the liberals? Sure, go for that but it’s not a response to what I said. I’m happy to state that even the bad labor policies are better than the liberals’ equivalent policies. There’s a big gap between ‘better than the liberals’ and ‘good’
Asha @ #1422 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 5:01 pm
The evidence is clear that a large contingent of bludgers is dead against any contact Labor may have with the Greens Party.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 5:00 pm
Still making absolute crap up I see, Rex Douglas.
Honestly, what do you hope to gain from it?
_______________________________________
Winding you and others up. To be quite honest, when I do see his pithy stupidities they really invite a witty, and sane, response. But that is just troll feeding. It’s all predictable bullshit, like a few other posters here, including certain Greens bashers.
It really must make a lot of people, often with very useful and intelligent views to impart (and not just Labor views), avoid posting here.
For myself, it is too often a case of sifting through detritus and downright septic tank remains to glean the odd semi-precious stone of an idea.
I wonder whether Voice Endeavour has he faintest comprehension that Bandt’s promise to Save the Planet is the promise of a charlatan?
Voice endeavour says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 5:05 pm
@bw – yea, I sure fell into that trap.
When asked what I don’t like about labor I identified 4 policies where I think the greens’ policies are better than labor’s.
How exactly does that make me evil?
@barney – you’re saying that labor’s got a different approach to the same policy as the liberals and that can produce better outcomes than the liberals? Sure, go for that but it’s not a response to what I said. I’m happy to state that even the bad labor policies are better than the liberals’ equivalent policies. There’s a big gap between ‘better than the liberals’ and ‘good’
=========================================
VE
Where did I say you were ‘evil’? Comprehensively and systematically misled by Bandt, for sure. But ‘evil’, no.
I assume a Newspoll tonight ..?
Perhaps 51-49 2PP to Labor ..?
Rex:
The federal Labor leader is chosen by the federal Labor caucus and the rank-and-file membership, not by cranks on Poll Bludger
‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 5:05 pm
Boerwar @ #1426 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 3:02 pm
I wonder whether Voice Endeavour supports the Greens policy of not sending weapons to Ukraine but humanitarian aid.
Ukrainians are certainly going to need a LOT more humanitarian aid if no-one sends them weapons.
Actual this quite mature for the Greens.
They seem to have considered the impact of their position and have responded accordingly.’
====================================
Sure. Let Putin slaughter the Ukrainians first and then send in humanitarian aid. Excavators for the dead? Mops for the blood in temporary hospitals? Orphanages for the orphans? Tents for the displaced? Quite ‘mature’.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1411 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 4:42 pm
Labor’s programme, even if the targets were able to be met, is woefully inadequate. It is not based on science, nor is it in accordance with the IPCC recommendations, and nor is it in the interests of the Australian electorate. But of course given that Labor continues to support massive new fossil fuel extraction, even this inadequate target is unlikely to be met. Even just considering the projects currently proposed (and which are supported by Labor) Australia will very likely increase its emissions rather than reduce them.
The only significant winner from Labor’s policies seems to be the fossil-fuel cartel, which will continue to make extraordinary windfall profits and yet pay little or no tax while doing so.
Is this really the best we can do?
@boerwar – on the extinction thing, honestly I think you’re overblowing your concern.
Yes, the greens should be technically accurate and say they want to return extinction levels back to pre-agriculture extinction rates, rather than saying they want to stop extinction. Is that your issue? Policy documents need to be a balance of scientifically accurate and easy to read. The greens policy on extinction achieves that balance. Your criticism (assuming I’m correct in understanding your criticism, correct me if not) is silly.
I doubt we’ll be seeing a Newspoll for at least another week or two, but my prediction would be for Labor to have a TPP of 54-56, a primary around 38-40, and Albo to be well ahead of Dutton on personals, with the Greens and others in the upper end of their usual range. The government has been having a pretty standard honeymoon so far.
mining on the moon 😡
Voice endeavour @ #1432 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 3:05 pm
I asked, What part of Labor’s programme is bad?
Your response, I think the Greens’ policies are better.
Fine, but it doesn’t answer the question.
I have no problem with mining the moon. It’s a lifeless rock. Far better to do it there than here.
‘Voice endeavour says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 5:11 pm
@boerwar – on the extinction thing, honestly I think you’re overblowing your concern.
Yes, the greens should be technically accurate and say they want to return extinction levels back to pre-agriculture extinction rates, rather than saying they want to stop extinction. Is that your issue? Policy documents need to be a balance of scientifically accurate and easy to read. The greens policy on extinction achieves that balance. Your criticism (assuming I’m correct in understanding your criticism, correct me if not) is silly.’
————————————–
1. It demonstrates that the Greens do not understand extinction. It is not a minor technical thing. The goal for a $24 billion policy is wrong. Just plain wrong.
2. This has not stopped the Greens from astroturfing the kiddies of the Extinction Rebellion.
3. When your goal is wrong headed then your policy and spending prioritizations below that goal are highly likely to be wrong-headed as well.
4. The Greens have had several months now to fix this crazy goal. It is high time they responded to sound scientific feedback and fixed it.
5. I understand that from a cult point of view the Greens are never wrong. I suggest you simply agree with the obvious thing here. The Greens extinction policy goal is scientifically unsound and unachievable.
‘Asha says:
Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 5:19 pm
I have no problem with mining the moon. It’s a lifeless rock. Far better to do it there than here.’
——————————————-
Uh huh. What about the emissions getting there and back?
On the ukraine situation.
I haven’t actually seen any greens announcement on lethal aid, so I provide no comment on it or their policy.
I note the greens have called for tougher economic sanctions on Russia and would suggest that is likely to achieve more than Australian weapons shipments.
I’m not sure how much scope there is for us to send lethal weapons shipments usefully. Sure, we have small arms and ammunition but not sure that is even in demand? Most of our heavier equipment is not something the Ukrainians will be trained in using, have the supply lines to support and we may not have the scale to send and train them in using them. Or perhaps I’m wrong on that, not my area of expertise.
Sending something like bushmasters is sensible. Low training requirement and low supply requirement.
Player One @ #1440 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 3:10 pm
Labor’s programme is based on science, it’s also based on what is practical and possible, and finally it’s based on what the majority of the population is willing to accept at this time.
We could of course go back to the previous Government and do fuck all.