SEC Newgate post-election poll (open thread)

A post-election survey finds Labor recovered support among middle-aged men, while women drove the surge to the Greens and independents.

The local branch of international communications firm SEC Newgate has published a post-election survey as part of a regular monthly series that had hitherto escaped my notice. Among its findings are that 28% of Labor voters at the election had voted for a different party or candidate in 2019, and that the party had “regained some traction with its traditional base”, particularly among middle-aged men. Conversely, the flight to the Greens and independents was driven overwhelmingly by women.

The survey also found 54% felt Australia was headed in the right direction post-election, up from 47% in April, and 52% felt the success of independents was good for Australia. Labor was considered the best party to handle housing by 42% to 25%, although its policy for partial government investment in private homes had only 38% support. The Coalition’s policy to allow first home buyers to draw on their superannuation was supported and opposed by 40% apiece, but its “downsizer” reforms were supported by 52% and opposed by 18%. Fifty-nine per cent supported an indigenous voice to parliament, with only 16% opposed. The survey was conducted May 23 to 27 from a sample of 1403.

Note also the post below dealing with the election result in the two Northern Territory seats, in what will be the first of a number of “call of the board” posts. It also marks a new leaf I’m at least planning on turning over in which I will increase the frequency of specialised posts with on-topic discussion threads, distinct from the usual poll-driven open threads like this one. We’ll see if I’m actually able to devote enough energy to the blog to make this viable long term. In any case, the open thread posts will henceforth be designated as such in their titles, as per the above.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,635 comments on “SEC Newgate post-election poll (open thread)”

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  1. some on hear hate the greens more than liberal party aparently a party that votes with alp 80 percent off time is worse than one that distroyed our international reputation did nothing on climate and now triying to distroy aucoss

  4. Snappy, I think we’re ‘stuck’ with snowy hydro, for better or for worse. Long term it will be a benefit, but it really was the wrong solution to choose at that time. It is a big piece of infrastructure and the benefit of having it won’t really be evident for a decade. But it will come. Should have paid closer to then and spent more money on wind and solar five years ago.

    Now if you want to talk about Kidston, that’s another story. Cheap renewable solar asset that uses an abandoned coal mine as a hydro storage battery. In construction. 2024 scheduled delivery. $800M. With today’s AVERAGE prices, and remember this thing is a battery, so it sells into peaks; even if it was only HALF utilised, it would have a six year amortisation. Fully utilised? 4 years. Green as it gets and not a green in sight.

    Residential or hobby wind turbines actually need some pretty special local conditions to work effectively. They’re too short. Wind turbines really need to be above the ground turbulence to be used reliably. You might live in of those places (top of a ridge?), but you need to consult wind maps before you even attempt to do it.

  5. The 1 hour meeting by Marles and team with the Chinese Minister, the first by the 2 countries at this level for 3 years, was not a ‘pull aside’ – it was the full Monty..

  6. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/06/09/sec-newgate-post-election-poll-open-thread/comment-page-30/#comment-3937512

    The Greens got 12.25% of the primary vote, a new record:

    https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-27966-NAT.htm

    (There are few thousand declaration votes left to be processed, so the Greens` final percentage might differ from that by 0.01%)

    The Greens also got probably over 1% in preferences ahead of either the ALP or Coalition.

  7. Tom the first and best @ #1436 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 6:53 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/06/09/sec-newgate-post-election-poll-open-thread/comment-page-30/#comment-3937512

    The Greens got 12.25% of the primary vote, a new record:

    https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-27966-NAT.htm

    (There are few thousand declaration votes left to be processed, so the Greens` final percentage might differ from that by 0.01%)

    The Greens also got probably over 1% in preferences ahead of either the ALP or Coalition.

    Big deal.

  8. Frednk: “Fast charging in the suburbs is a dream, we do not have the infrastructure to support it.”

    This whole thread started as a response to the Vic gov policy to train and accredit 8K (or was it 9K?) sparkies so they can build that infrastructure. And they’ll do it to get access to those car batteries.

  9. Aaron newton @ #1431 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 6:47 pm

    some on hear hate the greens more than liberal party aparently a party that votes with alp 80 percent off time is worse than one that distroyed our international reputation did nothing on climate and now triying to distroy aucoss

    Don’t look at me. I just think The Greens throwing their weight around like they’re all that, when they aren’t, is simply egotistical hubris on steroids.

  10. ve

    Labor made many promises and will keep those promises unless the Greens block them.

    If the Greens do block Labor’s promises then the electorate can sort the Greens out in 2025.

    Similarly, if Labor does not pass the Greens’ promises to stop extinction by 2030, Save the Planet, build a million houses, Save the Reef, Halve the Size of the ADF, and fulfil Seven Demands for $173 billion the electorate can sort Labor out while they are at it.

  11. Ask yourself what would Peter Dutton want, WWPDW?

    Would he want Labor to have a positive or antagonistic relationship with the Greens?

  15. Garabaldi @ #1428 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 6:45 pm

    @Cattomma doesn’t seem to fussed about diplomatic thaw with China as reported. I thought it was our moral imperative to go to war to protect some rocky islets in the South China Sea. But I guess the threat posed by the Greens gaining 4 seats requires a reassessment of our strategic posture.

    What a load of rubbish, with the substance and intellectual nutritional value of fairy floss. You must be new around here because I have said many, many times in the past that the last thing I want is war. With any country. Which is why I don’t want to see Australia surrounded by Chinese military bases. Hopefully, now that the adults are back in charge it never will happen.

  20. BW, Dutton could go for the Xmas reset – maybe dress up as Santa Claus and give gifts out to disadvantaged kids?

    Perhaps if there is natural disasters caused by Climate Change, he could demonstrate his empathy for the victims and promise more money for adaptation?

    And who knows, if ScoMo’s astroturfing Real Liberal ™ marketing scam has some legs, he could purloin that?

    At the present time, he is killing his own stock by being in the media.

  21. spr

    I would have thought that a bit of ‘quiet reflection’ along with a bit of ‘humble pie’ and a bit of ‘we have heard you’ and we will be aiming to ‘keep Labor civil’ was in order.

    What surprised me quite a bit was more of the same. They have kept right on with the politics of saying stupid and untrue things.

    Zero reset. They must be hoping that the hip pocket nerves are jangling in 2025.

  22. NSW Budget is a Labor budget. It is budget where they allocated substantial money ( I mean substantial) to Emergency Services, Aboriginal Services. This is the second story on NSW ABC 7 pm news

  24. Border security officials failed to thoroughly search the mobile phone of one of Australia’s most notorious paedophiles at Melbourne Airport in 2015 despite being warned the 64-year-old was a suspected child sex offender travelling overseas with a minor.

    The victim, Tiffany Skeggs, has now told The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald and 60 Minutes that at the time, both her phone and that of offender James Griffin contained “extremely exploitative and pornographic material of myself [aged 15] for certain”.

    Griffin was a pediatric nurse who was employed at several Tasmanian government institutions who may have abused or groomed up to 30 children. Tasmanian police have already faced searing public scrutiny for their failures to act on multiple tip-offs over many years about Griffin. He killed himself before any of his victims could see him face justice.

    After the failed search in 2015 the pair, who were returning from Turkey, went back to Tasmania. Skeggs was 17 at the time of the trip, and her abuse at Griffin’s hands did not stop until she was 19. Until now the details of his interaction with the Australian Border Force have remained clouded by agency secrecy.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/border-force-missed-evidence-of-sexual-abuse-then-it-continued-for-years-victim-20220609-p5asjl.html

  25. In 2025, What happens if the Libs/Nats get 59 seats , Labor gets 70 seats , Greens get say 7 seats and crossbench/ teals grows to 15 .

    Maybe the Libs are smarter to just target keeping what they have – and let Labor wear the odium of government and watch it all get unstable ( 2 terms seems a likelier bet than 1)

    We will see the truth of Labor with the October budget – the period up to the budget is shadow boxing before the main event.

  27. I thought Snowy Hydro 2 was all about getting the government to provide the finance (or guarantee the finance) to construct the hydro 2 scheme so that it could be hived off to “friendly” liberal/national mates at a friendly “one off” price.
    The undervalued asset is then in the gloves of the mates to coincide with the ability to make money for the mates.
    Airports, dams, tollways and hydro schemes all facilitate the same end.
    It’s the whole purpose of the very liberal with public money political party just tossed out in an election.
    Any water rights to sell anyone?

  29. The more than 75,000 Australians who voted via telephone because they were in isolation with COVID-19 were far more likely to back Labor candidates or Greens and independents than the broader electorate.

    An analysis of the COVID-19 phone voting results shows in all but eight lower house seats, Labor or the winning Green or independent candidate won a higher share of the two-candidate preferred vote.

    This trend was also seen in safe Coalition-held seats, with the exception of the Nationals-held seat of Mallee.

    There were 13 seats where the difference between the COVID-19 phone voting outcome and the overall outcome exceeded 10 percentage points.

    The highest difference was in Richmond, where Labor’s Justine Elliot retained her seat with 57.8 per cent of the overall votes. She won the phone voting with 78.5 per cent – a more than 20-point difference. The average difference was 5.6 percentage points.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/phone-voters-stuck-at-home-with-covid-19-were-more-likely-to-back-labor-20220607-p5arlb.html

  33. Fess/BW

    The 8 to 25 month wait for a skilled migrant visa requires some investigation. This is outrageous given the skills shortage with all but full employment at the moment.

  34. Ven this is after 10 years of N SW ggovernment freezing publick service wages sacking oficials ander undermining the work force sudinly they do a morrison like 2020 budget and protend there labor light unfornatly the opposition is leting them get away with it with the leader going missing hardly any one knows who minns is invizable

  35. just on greens i bvelieve Jole Fitsgiben is to blame last term foor the greens vote picking as his pro coal postering to maintain his seat under mining climate action gave credability to the greens saying labor is not taking climate action seriously combind with Bandt being the first greens leader to appeel to yunger voters as he flaged in his shared power release the former greens leaders were sceen as old fasiond tasmanian forists protesters or dinatailewho tried toturn greens mainstream and inspired no one

  37. ”
    Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 7:14 pm
    Ven
    Yep – but how much? The Parkies are getting substantial emergency response equipment and positions.
    ”

    BW
    1. Emergency services will get 100 new permanent fire fighters in this budget ( imagine LNP increasing Government jobs. They usual cut Government jobs in Emergency and Aboriginal services)
    2. Aboriginal services budget will increase from 20 million to 400 million dollars.

    DoPe actually went to Aboriginal services office in a regional area and sat and talked to Aboriginal reps. It may or may not mean much but I cannot remember a Lib Premier sitting with Aboriginal reps previously outside Macquarie Street office premises. Would you believe that I didn’t know that NSW Aboriginal services Minister name is Mr. Franklin.

  38. greens are also very active on social media with steel john and marine feruckie very active bw not surprized about dutton intirily consistant with his personality would be sceen as diningenuwis if he realy tried to show his other side and protend to be a nice person who heard the message his new kinder personality only lasted a day before he reverted to type on greens itsrediculis to shut out the greens and work tith the coalition who have been in power foor 10 years and apose moor bills than greens have no idea whiy some blogers would prefer liberal government than labor working with the greens in an adult way cprs was disapointing but it was rudds fault as he shut out the greens and worked with turnbull thats whiy greens aposed him

  39. sprocket_ @ #1531 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 7:26 pm

    Fess/BW

    The 8 to 25 month wait for a skilled migrant visa requires some investigation. This is outrageous given the skills shortage with all but full employment at the moment.

    The scale of the cleanup required by Labor is just incredible. Mess, rorts, corruption, waste, incompetence, and just plain old lazyness have infected just about every aspect of the federal government for the last decade. No wonder they’re hitting the ground running and not wasting a minute to get things back on track.

  40. bw it is imposible for any government to keep all of its promised this if labor breaks one promise they have failed there test and liberals should come back in murdocrasy is stupid as liberals bbroke nelly all off there prokmises no cuts to abc health education submarines fixing the debt it is unhelpful that some labor people are using murdock tests to judge this government

  41. Player One @ #1483 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 4:28 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1482 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 6:15 pm

    So, are you going to invest in one that you know is going to sit idle for some time.

    That’s one reason why coal plants still have value, they offer access to the grid when they’re closed.

    Upgrading the grid is not an instant process, as it happens it will open up new areas for renewable development, but this will take time.

    Odd how it always seems to come down to BURN MORE COAL, isn’t it? 🙁

    Well, there is no magic button!

    So, until we get everything sorted, we’re kind of stuck with it.

  42. Re C-Dog at 5.34 pm

    Not a king tide for Labor in the Senate in 2022, unless one has extremely modest expectations. Current Labor numbers look like being 26, just one more than 25 in 2013, and equal with Senate after 2016 and 2019 elections. Consistently better results for Labor after 1983 (30),* 1984 (34), 1987 (32), 1990 (32) and 1993 (30). Through the 12 years of Lib/Nat opposition under Hawke/Keating with an enlarged Senate from 1984, the LOWEST Lib/Nat Senate representation was 32 in 1984, and they reached 35 in 1993 (the first GST election before Mr Never Ever gave the GST another life a few years later). Indeed, only in 1984 did Labor win more Senators than the Coalition, and never since then.

    The big failure for Labor in 2022 was SA. Two months before the federal election, the results in the SA Leg Council election on 19 March were: Lab 37%; Lib 34.4%; Greens 9%; Hanson 4.2%.

    Current PV Senate count in SA (91.4% counted) is: Lab 32.3%; Lib 33.9%; Greens 11.9%; Hanson 4%.

    Lib vote dropped 0.5%, Greens up 2.9%, Hanson almost steady, but Labor lost nearly 5%, a bit over half of that to the Greens and the rest to Sundries.

    Labor’s drop of 4.7% in upper house votes in SA in 2 months might be a record. Anyway, it’s not fully explained by the 2.9% rise in Greens vote. Nor explained by the Hemp mob (Legalise Cannabis) who had a very modest rise from 2.1% in Leg C to 2.3% in Senate.

    There was an evidently pathetic attempt by SA Labor to promote Senate votes late in the campaign, perhaps undertaken when the horses had bolted, i.e. when Farrell finally realised things weren’t well.

    Historically, Senate results can be affected by what Dr Bonham calls the federal to state drag in reverse, when unpopular state governments drag down the respective party’s Senate vote in a state. The most auspicious time for an incoming Labor government federally to get a good Senate result in a state is very soon after a Labor state government was elected with a strong vote, i.e. SA in March 2022. The SA election in March was nowhere near as decisive as the WA election a year earlier, but based on the Leg Council result in March it was realistic to expect SA Labor to have won the state’s 6th senator.

    Since Pocock performed what Dr Bonham called the “Gorton dream” in beating the Libs in the ACT, the poor showing of SA Labor in the Senate will not be a big obstacle for the federal government in the next 3 years, but if Pocock is not returned in 2025 then that failure could constrain Labor next term, assuming the Albanese government does well enough to get re-elected (as Bob McMullan expects).

    Outside a DD on current trends it is very unlikely the Greens would get a second Tas senate seat. In the 2016 DD election they got only 1.45 quotas. Hopefully Pocock will not tire of parliamentary life, since it is unlikely the Greens could beat Libs in ACT as he did, despite their impressive candidate, Tjanara Goreng Goreng, whose memoir (she has an anecdote or two about Bob Hawke) is reviewed at:

    https://independentaustralia.net/life/art-display/book-review-a-long-way-from-no-go-by-tjanara-goreng-goreng,11971

    * NB: when Hawke won in 1983 Labor got 30 senators out of 64, compared to 26 out of 76 in 2022.

  43. ”
    Aaron newtonsays:
    Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 7:26 pm
    Ven this is after 10 years of N SW ggovernment freezing publick service wages sacking oficials ander undermining the work force sudinly they do a morrison like 2020 budget and protend there labor light unfornatly the opposition is leting them get away with it with the leader going missing hardly any one knows who minns is invizable
    ”

    Aaron Newton
    I know and understand that but Minns is one of the luckiest Opposition leaders of Australia. After he became LOTO NSW government COVID response became really bad. Gladys resigned, DoPe proved himself to be a dopey Premier in managing NSW government. Andrew Constance resigns a regional Liberal seat to contest federal election and NSW Labor wins that seat in the by-election. In the same by-elections, Libs almost lost ultrasafe Liberal seat.

  44. would be good if the anti greens stuff goes away for a while in canbera they have had a coalition know canbra is most progresiveteritory but greens havent distroyed that labor government if we do not work with the greens that just incresis tis vote if we can fix climate the but keep them in the tent we can win suport back rudds refusil and fitsgiben plus barnabey joices constant mentining of them after years of irelivants plus bandts success with yungervoters saw there vote increase if we end climate wars and adress inequality such as housingafordability plus show them same respect as teels voters will relize that greens may be useful in senate to stop phon and coalition blocking majority but labor in house of reps inshores we cet a progresive government

  45. C@tmomma:

    Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 5:00 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1351 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 4:58 pm

    [‘The moment Albanese and Bandt agree on Greens amendments to legislation, the agitation for a leadership transition to Chalmers will intensify.’]

    [‘Still making absolute crap up I see, Rex Douglas.

    Honestly, what do you hope to gain from it?’]

    You do carry on from time to time, Rex. Albanese is as safe as houses, pitting him against Chalmers is plain stupid. Yes, Chalmers is the heir presumptive but Albanese will have at least two terms under his belt.

  46. I think your analysis is correct Aaron. Whether Labor chooses to follow it remains to be seen.

    It is one of the key unanswered questions at the moment. The budget is the other.

    Those two decisions along with China policy are likely to define the whole term.

  47. agree bw labor needs a clean out of border force and pezullo this is another blow to duttons credability as as minister his department failed on cheild protection a ishue he tried to weaponise painting labor as wekk combind with his cost blow outs in home affairs with detention center contracts dubmarine deal he would have to be one of the most incompetent people ever to be a minister marles and wong off to a great start all ready doing more in 2 weeks then payne morrison did in 9 years

  48. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1540 Sunday, June 12th, 2022 – 7:41 pm

    So, until we get everything sorted, we’re kind of stuck with it.

    Or with the pain of getting rid of it before everything is sorted. The cost has to be paid eventually.

    The transition was never going to be painless. Trying to make it so just makes it less likely to ever happen.

  49. ”
    Dr Doolittlesays:
    Sunday, June 12, 2022 at 7:44 pm
    Re C-Dog at 5.34 pm

    Not a king tide for Labor in the Senate in 2022, unless one has extremely modest expectations.
    ”

    Again excellent post and I agree with you the analysis.

  50. Aaron @6:49 ”some on hear hate the greens more than liberal party aparently a party that votes with alp 80 percent off time is worse than one that distroyed our international reputation did nothing on climate”

    I’m as “bemused” as you at this state of affairs.

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