SEC Newgate post-election poll (open thread)

A post-election survey finds Labor recovered support among middle-aged men, while women drove the surge to the Greens and independents.

The local branch of international communications firm SEC Newgate has published a post-election survey as part of a regular monthly series that had hitherto escaped my notice. Among its findings are that 28% of Labor voters at the election had voted for a different party or candidate in 2019, and that the party had “regained some traction with its traditional base”, particularly among middle-aged men. Conversely, the flight to the Greens and independents was driven overwhelmingly by women.

The survey also found 54% felt Australia was headed in the right direction post-election, up from 47% in April, and 52% felt the success of independents was good for Australia. Labor was considered the best party to handle housing by 42% to 25%, although its policy for partial government investment in private homes had only 38% support. The Coalition’s policy to allow first home buyers to draw on their superannuation was supported and opposed by 40% apiece, but its “downsizer” reforms were supported by 52% and opposed by 18%. Fifty-nine per cent supported an indigenous voice to parliament, with only 16% opposed. The survey was conducted May 23 to 27 from a sample of 1403.

Note also the post below dealing with the election result in the two Northern Territory seats, in what will be the first of a number of “call of the board” posts. It also marks a new leaf I’m at least planning on turning over in which I will increase the frequency of specialised posts with on-topic discussion threads, distinct from the usual poll-driven open threads like this one. We’ll see if I’m actually able to devote enough energy to the blog to make this viable long term. In any case, the open thread posts will henceforth be designated as such in their titles, as per the above.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,635 comments on “SEC Newgate post-election poll (open thread)”

Comments Page 5 of 33
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  1. @ C@t:

    “ Oh, that’s right, humiliate the person who points out the multi-pronged approach of China towards destabilising the West, and go, I prosecute people for this all the time…and not make the logical connection.”

    ___________

    Sounds like the National Civic Council speaking IMO.

  2. Mavis

    Their
    confirmation, Trump’s lasting gift to the God-bothers.

    Mainly a particular flavor of god bothering though, the faux xtian Evangelical snake oil merchants. Especially if they are white whilst Evangelical.

  3. Cat,

    The main buffer that Sukkar has is from all the footy clubs, netball, etc that he gave big $$$ to build new clubrooms. I know so many who voted for him because of the new rooms…




    The size and scale of these buildings for local sport remind me of Viktor Orban…

  4. Emissions CO2

    2005 535 Mt 2020 536 Mt use 535 Mt as benchmark

    Lib28% = 150Mt
    ALP43% = 230Mt
    Tls60% = 321Mt
    Grn75% = 401Mt

    80 Mt difference between major parties but this was universally reported as same same.

    Time taken to check 5mins.

  5. @Socrates, re: Dutton:

    “ Spud wrote:
    “I believed it possible to negotiate with the Americans to ­acquire, say, the first two submarines off the production line out of Connecticut,” he wrote.

    “This wouldn’t mean waiting until 2038 for the first submarine to be built here in Australia.

    “We would have our first two subs this decade. I had formed a judgement the Americans would have facilitated exactly that.”

    What drivel. In other words “I believed it possible” and “I had formed a judgement” meant the Americans have not agreed to this. This is more of typical Liberal defence planning – based on nothing more than wishful thinking.”

    ___________

    It truly is astonishing, isn’t it?

    This bloke was one half of a dynamic duo that cancelled a submarine program just about to go into production in favour of … a feasibility study. … Marcon was right all along.

    Dutton’s comments before the election were meant to sound like Gillard’s “Announcement” of the East Timor Solution in June/July 2010 – which would have been a game changer, if she actually had a signed agreement in place with Timor. Except that … just like Gillard’s announcement, Dutton didn’t have a deal. Not even close to one and probably for the reasons you stated.

    So, even though he sat in the National Security Sub Committee for years, and was Defence Minister at the time of the AUKUS announcement he brings nothing extra to the table than a couple of blokes on an anonymous blog relying on open source information could work out for themselves, namely – If America (or any alternative partner) cannot actually build several nuclear submarines for us FIRST (and being laid down THIS DECADE) then we won’t be getting nuclear subs into service before 2038 – and being realistic, we can expect to add another decade onto THAT estimate.

    Dutton should be made to wear this fiasco like a Crown of Thorns for the remainder of his time in Parliament.

    What a clusterfuck.

  6. Australia is experiencing the second most severe labour shortages in the developed world, according to the latest OECD economic outlook, reports Ronald Mizen.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-has-second-worst-skills-crisis-in-developed-world-20220608-p5arzu

    BK & all the rest of youse

    Get a load of this shite re skilled workers the LNP left behind:

    9 Jun 2022. Scottish skilled worker’s fight to stay in Australia | A Current Affair: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu5OiL_f7hs&ab_channel=ACurrentAffair

  7. poroti:

    Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 2:26 pm

    Mavis

    Their confirmation, Trump’s lasting gift to the God-botherers.

    [‘Mainly a particular flavor of god bothering though, the faux xtian Evangelical snake oil merchants. Especially if they are white whilst Evangelical.’]

    Yes, moreso the Evangelicals, but some of those Baptists are a bit looney tunes too. Anyway, Trump thinks he fooled them all as he’s actually the Antichrist, and they know it but it nevertheless serves their purpose. ‘God Moves in a Mysterious Way’- and all that jazz.

  8. Mavis at 2:47 pm
    I’m not sure about the Baptists but leaders of the Evangelicals swung in behind Trump big time before he was elected. His moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognising it as the capital of Israel made him a bigly hero of the Evangelicals. It was helping fulfill the conditions required for the start of the End Times, come on down The Rapture.

    What a comfort it was having Australia lead by someone from that particular brand god-bothery.
    .
    This is why evangelicals love Trump’s Israel policy
    Hint: It has to do with burning lakes of fire.
    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/donald-trump-christians-fundamentalists-end-times-rapture-1083131/

  9. A record almost 3 per cent of all jobs were vacant in the March quarter, with 420,000 out of about 15 million positions waiting to be filled,

    So 97% were filled ? Crisis ? What is the normal churn? Methinks some employees are pining for exploitable migrant workers. How about the AFR have an article highlighting the Liberal Party’s failure to train sufficient Australians to fill ‘skilled’ jobs ?

  10. a r says:
    Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 11:30 am

    The Melon was purporting to describe the faction generally labelled the Labor Right. They have a quite preposterous take on things, a take that borrows its polemics from the International of a prior century. Really, this is characteristic lazy day-dreaming/hooting/snoring from a Trot masquerading as an environmentalist.

  11. Anyone able to name the Architectural firm responsible for the sports halls pictured earlier? Maybe they were design-and-construct jobs. They look suspiciously like they came from the stable. Maaates?

  12. Socrates

    Dutton says “and “I had formed a judgement”.

    Since when have Dutton and judgement even been acquaintances?

  13. poroti:

    Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 3:04 pm

    Thanks, an enlightening article. I like the look of the black guy behind Trump looking at the white guy on Trump’s right, perhaps thinking, WTF am I doing here with all these nutters?

  14. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 2:47 pm

    Boewar

    “The Greens Party is a cult.”

    Fuck me. Get a grip.
    Personal attacks over and over again.’
    ——————————–
    Bandt has a messiah complex. He has promised that he will save the planet. While he is doing that he has promised to stop extinctions by 2030. He can do neither, of course. He must know that. That makes him a charlatan and his followers cultists.
    His cult followers are routinely abusive towards others. Yet another cult signifier.
    He is never wrong. Yet another cult signifier.
    His cult never does wrong. Yet another cult signifier.

  15. Socrates at 1.34

    Dutton: “We would have our first two subs this decade. I had formed a judgement the Americans would have facilitated exactly that.”

    What drivel. In other words “I believed it possible” and “I had formed a judgement” meant the Americans have not agreed to this. This is more of typical Liberal defence planning – based on nothing more than wishful thinking.
    _______________________________________

    I don’t think Dutton ever formed such a view whilst Minister. He’s making it up now to try and boost his national security cred whilst painting Labor as incapable in this space.

    Will our glorious meeja ask ‘How can Australians believe you on this? Did you tell anyone else or commit your view to paper/writing?’?

  16. Boerwar

    “Bandt has a messiah complex. He has promised that he will save the planet. While he is doing that he has promised to stop extinctions by 2030. He can do neither, of course. He must know that. That makes him a charlatan and his followers cultists.
    His cult followers are routinely abusive towards others. Yet another cult signifier.
    He is never wrong. Yet another cult signifier.
    His cult never does wrong. Yet another cult signifier.”

    This is all total bullshit.

  17. ‘Watermelon says:
    Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 12:39 pm

    China is starting to act like a white country. That’s just not on.’
    ================================
    A historical. But nice try.

  18. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 3:38 pm

    Boerwar

    “Bandt has a messiah complex. He has promised that he will save the planet. While he is doing that he has promised to stop extinctions by 2030. He can do neither, of course. He must know that. That makes him a charlatan and his followers cultists.
    His cult followers are routinely abusive towards others. Yet another cult signifier.
    He is never wrong. Yet another cult signifier.
    His cult never does wrong. Yet another cult signifier.”

    This is all total bullshit.’
    ————————
    Cult members are not expected to behave or to speak rationally.
    Simple but complete denials of reality are the norm.
    ‘This is all total bullshit.’ is a classic signifier of cultish behaviour.

  19. Bandt has promised he will Save the Planet.
    Astrobleme is confronted with having to believe that or not.
    Rationally there is no problem with this statement. It is obviously false.
    But if your messiah uttered that statement, what to believe?
    This is precisely why cultists end up denying reality.

  20. C@t at 2.18

    I predict a realignment in the Faith space over the next few years…
    _______________________________________

    Not sure if we’re addressing the same thing, but my view is the religious Right are incredibly resistant to changing their framing.

    I expect Hillsong to (justifiably) throw Houston under the bus rather than ask whether a particular approach to theology might need to be re-examined. People who do church stats tell me that Pentecostal churches often recruit people who are religious but don’t find mainstream churches appropriate. Often they then discover Pentecostal theology sucks and leave any kind of church for good.

    Religious or not, the Right cannot handle a change of world-view.

  21. Boerwar

    “Cult members are not expected to behave or to speak rationally.”

    You should be embarrassed by this.

    It’s schoolyard bullying.

  22. ‘Sounds like the National Civic Council speaking imo’

    Ad hominem. No proof provided. Historical perspective with zero relevance to the current situation and subject.

    Your attack couldn’t be more flabby if you tried, Earlwood.

    Absolutely to be expected though when you can’t defend the indefensible in any substantive way.

  23. Harry Frost
    @HMFrost
    · 4h
    #BREAKING: The ACT Government has agreed with a committee recommendation to pass a bill which will decriminalise possession of small quantities of a range of illicit drugs. It’s also announced a trial of a fixed site pill testing program will begin later this month.

    Really hope this works.

  24. Snappy Tom @3.46,
    Yes I was referring to the people that will leave the Evo Church and take their Faith elsewhere. I see a realignment to other religions if they still want to be faithful and others who just walk away altogether.

    Just to prove how extreme the brainwashing of the Pentecostal churches are, I was speaking to a friend today and he said that a former school friend of his who has become a follower of a Pentecostal church was telling him how much each sin would cost him in order to repent. 😀

  25. In today’s OZ, PETA Credlin writes on “why Culture Wars Are Worth The Fight”.

    Will they seriously never learn …….. ever? National interest doesn’t ever seem to show on their radar, it’s just not an issue.

  26. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 4:13 pm
    Snappy Tom @3.46,
    Yes I was referring to the people that will leave the Evo Church and take their Faith elsewhere. I see a realignment to other religions if they still want to be faithful and others who just walk away altogether.

    “Just to prove how extreme the brainwashing of the Pentecostal churches are, I was speaking to a friend today and he said that a former school friend of his who has become a follower of a Pentecostal church was telling him how much each sin would cost him in order to repent. ”

    3 ‘Hail Marys’ and two ‘Our Fathers’ perhaps? Sounds a bit Roman Catholic really, perhaps they’ve come the full circle.

  27. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 3:53 pm

    Boerwar

    “Cult members are not expected to behave or to speak rationally.”

    You should be embarrassed by this.

    It’s schoolyard bullying.’
    ===================
    Cult members have reality framed in such a way that they perceive themselves to be victims.
    Cult members don’t do irony.
    Example. The Greens Cult with Messiah Bandt at the head spent nine years criticizing Labor, Labor’s people and Labor’s policies. Much of this criticism was based on outright lies. The Coalition and Labor are same old, same old. That line of talking.
    This was not perceived as bullying.
    But when others criticize the cult, THAT is perceived as bullying.
    A total lack of irony: classic signifier of cult mentality.

    During the election Bandt announced Seven Demands.
    Only cult members would regard that as not being bullying behaviour.

    In the week after the election Bandt, having spent the best part of a decade criticizing Labor, up to and lying big time about Labor ann0unced that he wanted ‘friendly’ relations.

    Cognitive dissonance: a classic signifier of cult behaviour.

  28. BiTJ

    You always ask for evidence without being able to produce any yourself.

    You could try talking to Philippines fisherfolk if that would help you on your personal journey to understand the economic devastation caused by China’s unilateral take over of traditional Philippines fishing grounds.

  29. Asha
    It was part of an official policy announcement. I called it out as impossible and wrong-headed at the time. They might have cleaned it up since.

  30. C@t at 4.13

    “I was speaking to a friend today and he said that a former school friend of his who has become a follower of a Pentecostal church was telling him how much each sin would cost him in order to repent. ”

    Remarkable! They’ve found a dollar value!

    So did the Pope in the Middle Ages (selling ‘indulgences’). Not the best theological or ethical company to keep…

  31. Asha

    Here it is.

    ‘Stopping the extinction crisis through setting a goal of Zero Extinction by 2030’

    Mr Darwin would not be amused.

    Not a single Greens cult member called Bandt out for launching a policy that is scientifically stupid, practically impossible and hideously expensive. Collapse of the critical faculties is a classic cult signifier.

    Cultists are expected not to doubt the wisdom of the cult leader.

    https://greens.org.au/news/media-release/greens-launch-plan-halt-extinction-crisis

  32. Cronus at 4.19 re Hail Marys…

    You may recall “Some Mothers Do ‘Ave ‘Em” from 70s…

    One day, Frank goes to Confession. The priest tells him to say 7 Hail Marys and 6 Our Fathers [OK, I’m making up the numbers…]

    Frank emerges from the booth and exclaims “Ooh! Severe!”

  33. Matt Clarke
    @iMattClarke
    ·
    Jun 1
    Ok so let me get this straight. The #1 movie in the country is Top Gun, the #1 song is Kate Bush “Running up The Hill”, and America is in a proxy war with Russia? So we’re just like “fuck it, let’s give 1986 another go then?”

  34. Cults and their most fervant followers come in many shades….like anyone who can spend most of the day/week/year on one site defending one red shade and attacking one green shade…..Personally I have a much greater loyalty toward Australia than any colour

  35. shellbell at4.39

    “fuck it, let’s give 1986 another go then?”

    The Australian men’s cricket team was rubbish in 1986.
    Crocodile Dundee was released.
    John Howard thought he might win the next election.
    Hawkie was PM.

    So, yeah…

  36. Boerwar @ #235 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 2:28 pm

    BiTJ

    You always ask for evidence without being able to produce any yourself.

    You could try talking to Philippines fisherfolk if that would help you on your personal journey to understand the economic devastation caused by China’s unilateral take over of traditional Philippines fishing grounds.

    Poor Boer, Gets caught lying, like he so freely accuses others, and all he has is deflection.

  37. I think reducing our extinction level is what is needed considering we have the worst extinction level of any country. This is also due to the level of endemic species we have.

    The fact is that Australia, apart from some species surviving elsewhere, is the last haven on the planet of the marsupial mammals.

    We cannot completely stop extinction, and I would prefer for us to acknowledge as a society the value of biodiversity, and focus on the best ways to prevent species extinction as much as we can.

    Acknowledging the grave position the world is in with biodiversity loss is key and why it is important: from the inherent right of species to exist, to the need of ecosystems to have biodiversity levels sustained to function, and the multiple reasons humanity needs biodiversity for our own survival.

    There has been amazing work done to document and educate on biodiversity, what we need now is those in power to take action on preserving biodiversity and prevent extinction.

    Like climate change, ignoring species extinction does not make it go away. We need to change the way we do things and enable every effort to protect threatened species.

    Like climate change, we are running out of time on biodiversity, and I would prefer that we move to discussing the actual problems and solutions more as a society.

  38. ‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 4:48 pm

    Boerwar @ #235 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 2:28 pm

    BiTJ

    You always ask for evidence without being able to produce any yourself.

    You could try talking to Philippines fisherfolk if that would help you on your personal journey to understand the economic devastation caused by China’s unilateral take over of traditional Philippines fishing grounds.

    Poor Boer, Gets caught lying, like he so freely accuses others, and all he has is deflection.’
    ————————————-
    Personal abuse.

    Unlike you I have spoken with traditional Philippines fisherfolk. They know something that seems to have escaped you entirely.

    https://asianews.network/more-fish-imports-for-philippines-as-china-blocks-filipino-fishers/

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