SEC Newgate post-election poll (open thread)

A post-election survey finds Labor recovered support among middle-aged men, while women drove the surge to the Greens and independents.

The local branch of international communications firm SEC Newgate has published a post-election survey as part of a regular monthly series that had hitherto escaped my notice. Among its findings are that 28% of Labor voters at the election had voted for a different party or candidate in 2019, and that the party had “regained some traction with its traditional base”, particularly among middle-aged men. Conversely, the flight to the Greens and independents was driven overwhelmingly by women.

The survey also found 54% felt Australia was headed in the right direction post-election, up from 47% in April, and 52% felt the success of independents was good for Australia. Labor was considered the best party to handle housing by 42% to 25%, although its policy for partial government investment in private homes had only 38% support. The Coalition’s policy to allow first home buyers to draw on their superannuation was supported and opposed by 40% apiece, but its “downsizer” reforms were supported by 52% and opposed by 18%. Fifty-nine per cent supported an indigenous voice to parliament, with only 16% opposed. The survey was conducted May 23 to 27 from a sample of 1403.

Note also the post below dealing with the election result in the two Northern Territory seats, in what will be the first of a number of “call of the board” posts. It also marks a new leaf I’m at least planning on turning over in which I will increase the frequency of specialised posts with on-topic discussion threads, distinct from the usual poll-driven open threads like this one. We’ll see if I’m actually able to devote enough energy to the blog to make this viable long term. In any case, the open thread posts will henceforth be designated as such in their titles, as per the above.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,635 comments on “SEC Newgate post-election poll (open thread)”

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  1. Holdenhillbilly @ #41 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 9:02 am

    Here’s a wild idea for mainstream economists to smile at condescendingly: How about the Reserve Bank stands back and lets this inflation episode run its course.

    There’s a wise old saying that the best cure for high prices is high prices, since they naturally reduce demand on their own, but central bankers are trained to scoff at that idea.

    Unlike previous episodes, this inflation is NOT caused by galloping consumer demand or runaway wages, which is what higher interest rates are designed to suppress, but by two colossal stupidities that are entirely impervious to the Reserve Bank.

    The first, of course, is Vladimir Putin’s idiotic invasion of Ukraine, about which enough is said already.

    The second stupidity (or is that three now?) is Australia’s poor excuse for an energy policy, which has more holes than a trendy pair of jeans.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/06/09/inflation-stupidities-alan-kohler/

    I wonder about this suggested methodology for dealing with Inflation as it appears that Janet Yellen may have tried it in the US but instead the result was that it got more out of control rather than under control. So she has had to deal with it more aggressively now as a result.


  2. As the world turned to shit, the Coalition turned to religion, writes Kaye Lee who says it will be up to Labor to offer something better than ‘thoughts and prayers’ to fix the situation that we now find ourselves in after three years of a prime minister who considered himself divinely ordained.
    https://theaimn.com/as-the-world-turned-to-shit-the-coalition-turned-to-religion/

    First of all, ALP and Albanese government should learn a couple of things from John Howard and his government of 11 years.
    1. They should preserve their base at any cost like John Howard did starting with helping the people who are most vulnerable and affected by Energy bills. John Howard ensured his party base stayed with him even during 1998 and 2007 elections by keeping them happy with things like tax cuts and budget surpluses. His government did not lose seats like Kooyong, Goldstein, Indi, Mayo, Wentworth, North Sydney, Mackellar, Warringah, Higgins,Bennelong and Curtin, which the current LNP lost.
    2. Stay in power for a long time to implement changes and embed them. This is easier said than done but it starts with preserving your base.

    The things that Albanese should do is to become anti-dote to John Howard because like Howard he is a conviction politician. Rudd try to be Howard lite. That is the reason he failed.

  3. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. I am pleased that Labor is acting on the gas shortage and profiteering by gas retailers. Yet I think further action is needed.

    Gas prices are at record highs and Australia was the world’s largest exporter of LNG in 2021. We should be in a national revenue bonanza. Instead a combination of local and foreign owned gas corporations paying virtually zero tax, low royalty rates, and a failed petroleum tax (thanks Martin Ferguson) will see Labor struggling to fund its budget.

    The gas price bonanza is exactly the scenario in which the petroleum tax was supposed to deliver a tax bonanza to Canberra. It has failed to do so. A few high paid jobs for the CFMEU does not excuse this national economic failure. Right now Santos, Woodside and Chevron are being friends to no-one.

  4. How much political capital would the ALP squander legalising nuclear? What a self-indulgent frolic that would be, for a non-starter – politics not policy, in the manner of the unlamented mob just evicted

  5. Ven

    On the question of Labor’s Lower House vote falling, I think tactical voting does explain it. Compare HoR with Senate voting. Labor’s Senate vote this election rose (+1.4%) as did the Greens (+2.4%). Whereas the Lib/LNP Senate vote went back -3.6%, almost identical to its HoR drop of -3.4%.

    I think we can reasonably conclude that a significant % of people who voted for independents in lower house seats would have normally voted Labor. Plus the defecting Liberal voters fed up with the corruption.

  6. BW

    I get your overall point. But does offering the Greens a seat on a committee with Independents produce a net benefit to Labor? If they turn it down it harms the Greens, and the battle continues elsewhere. If they accept a seat they might choose to bog up the committee, which would harm that committee, but then the battle would be confined. Isn’t it a net benefit to Labor either way?

  7. Why is it that conservative leaning persons refuse to comprehend preferential voting? The ALP had a smashing win and cleaned up for two reasons. The majority of the population voted for a change in government. Primary vote is irrelevant on a macro level if the votes come back via preferences. It is a means of holding an instant run off election.

    The second reason is the LNP decided to ignore their base. Their base went teal. As long as Darth Tater and his troopers insist their base is rednecks (in the regions and outer suburbs) they will remain in the wilderness. And that suits me just fine!

    I voted Green first preference, Labor second. I am as much a rusted on Labor voter as those who put a one in the ALP box. I, like 52% of the population, voted for a change of government. Get over it, RWNJs. Scomo was not the problem, the refusal to govern was the problem.

    BMAWM – out.

  8. Boerwar, you completely ignore the widespread and historical opposition of traditional owners to uranium mining, nuclear power and nuclear waste on their countries. There is long resistance and opposition to the nuclear industry led by Traditional owners and this mutual opposition is what was key to forging strong alliances with the environmental movement over decades.

    Your posts on the topic seem to be another way to allow you to keep arguing “about those evil wedging greens” but these claims lack the above context, and that opposition to the nuclear industry is significantly broader that “that Adam Bandt”.

    On 774 Melbourne yesterday, Jim Chalmers, the new treasurer, strongly ruled out nuclear power, which discredits your repeated claims, but reality and context don’t seem to matter much to you.

    IT really feels like you are trolling with this, as your own supported party has ruled nuclear power out. It is very clear that you struggle accepting diversity of opinion on the left and admonish anyone who dares to raise anything to the contrary to the ALP, yet you also can argue, often to the right of, with what the ALP actually plans to do (or not do). So apart from trolling people who you can’t handle have differing opinions post on the blog, who may have perspectives such as being anti-uranium or pro increasing our carbon emissions reductions by more than 43% (which can happen by 2030 with RENEWABLES, not nuclear). I can’t see another purpose for your persistence TBH, as you ignore factual counter arguments such as Jim Chalmer’s statement on radio yesterday, and keep raising irrelevant topics repeatedly, such as “Adam Bandt is trying to wedge Labor on nuclear power” when the ALP has ruled it out.

    No doubt, you will post in response to this and keep posting on the issue for a while longer, but how about you explain how Adam Bandt can wedge the ALP on nuclear power, when the ALP do not support nuclear power?

  9. So Joyce appointed the then Tamworth Mayor to head up Infrastructure Australia. Sounds a little too cosy given Tamworth’s in his electorate of New England. Little wonder he’s been critical of
    the prospect that the FICAC will be given the power investigate
    alleged incidences of pork-barrelling, that may be found to be graft.

  10. Roy Morgan @RoyMorganAus

    Potential National/Act NZ coalition (50%) strengthens its clear lead over Labour/Greens (43%) in May

  11. Watermelon says:
    Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 9:15 am

    BW is such an insufferable bore.

    Boer is nearly always on the money, though. He’s right about the Apostasy, who have a profound resentment of Labor and who foster disaffection with Labor at all times. This is their staple act. Their one true gig. We’ve seen it all before and we’ll see it again: the Apostasy will find pretexts on which they will combine with the Lying Reactionaries to inflict defeats on Labor in the Senate.

    Consider this. Yesterday the new Labor Government brokered an agreement with all the States to phase out the use of fossil fuels in the Australian energy market. Great news. This could have been done at any time by the shockers who were evicted from power last month.

    However, Labor will get no encouragement from the Apostasy for this. None. Rather they will rebuke Labor on some invented grounds or other. The Apostasy are Labor-phobic. They run a hate project. In this respect, they are identical to the Lying Reactionaries and One Nation, who are also professional publishers of hate mail.

    They offer policy decoys to the electorate while vilifying Labor. That is their game. This is bad faith politics. It is the praxis of the eternally treacherous.

  12. Also, when it comes to preferencing the Liberals second or legislating for nuclear power, pretty sure ALP tacticians would discount these ideas out of hand.

    1.The ALP do not want to do these things anyway.
    2.Both ideas would backfire and provoke a completely unnecessary electoral backlash.

  13. On nuclear,

    “Labor should legalize nuclear power.”

    I have to agree, but not for the politics.

    The economics of having additional options is simple – As long as investment decisions are left to the discipline of the market and are not skewed by government subsidies, it simply cannot increase total costs to remove constraints on energy asset expansion, and it increases the value of the decisions made under uncertainty to have more alternatives (aka real options theory).

    In addition, strategically, developing the training and regulatory systems needed to support a nuclear life-cycle industry has military and energy security benefits, as well as many spin-off benefits in terms of advanced engineering and manufacturing skills and opportunities.

    Net positive, imho, on those scores alone, before considering long-run environmental benefits of substituting nuclear for coal + gas (+oil for transport) where it stacks up financially.

  14. In North Sydney, Labor received 28.46% of the Senate first preference vote and 21.44% of the House first preferences, a difference of close to 7% even though Labor had a good House candidate.

    I think that it’s a fair estimate that the Strategic vote for the Teal might be around 5%. Multiply this across about 20 Teal-targeted seats and divide by 151 total seats gives a strategic vote of 0.66%.

    That is rough but I don’t think it’s too far out. It is likely that strategic voting explains most, possibly all of Labor’s primary vote reduction.

  15. “The economics of having additional options is simple – As long as investment decisions are left to the discipline of the market and are not skewed by government subsidies, it simply cannot increase total costs to remove constraints on energy asset expansion, and it increases the value of the decisions made under uncertainty to have more alternatives (aka real options theory).

    In addition, strategically, developing the training and regulatory systems needed to support a nuclear life-cycle industry has military and energy security benefits, as well as many spin-off benefits in terms of advanced engineering and manufacturing skills and opportunities.”

    If we are relying on economics we will never need the training and regulatory systems because even with massive govt subsidies and special legislation to pave the way nuclear is the most expensive energy, and has a negative learning curve (which simply means generation x +1 costs more than generation x costs).

    I know there is tiny nuclear reactors, every nuclear shill and most terrorists wet dream, but lets wait until they have actually been developed first.

  16. Final comment on Defence before I do some work.

    I have been reading two books lately which I recommend to understand the China thing and what is reasonable course for Australia.

    On China I am reading Kevin Rudd’s book The Avoidable War. It is thorough, clear and very readable. Rudd either has talent as a writer or has hired an excellent ghost writer.

    On defence implications I have been reading Hugh White’s book How to Defend Australia. Again very readable and clear, highlighting where our defence purchases have failed to match our needs. White identifies several defence projects that seem to be the product of inter-service rivalry than any rational strategy. This includes tanks, the Land 4000 (AFV) project and the bloated cost of the Hunter Frigates. He advocates more planes (F35s and P8s) and submarines (either locally built and bought in or both). This book was written just before AUKUS, but the logic in why White recommends his changes is the bit worth reading.

    Have a good day all.

  17. “I know there is tiny nuclear reactors, every nuclear shill and most terrorists wet dream, but lets wait until they have actually been developed first.”

    Yeah as an economic decision, I agree with this.

    We do not have to be a first mover, but it would be valuable to have the option to move.

  18. There is no good reason for Labor to implement a policy advocated by the Wandering Prophet Branch of the Lying Reactionaries, and legislate for a nuclear power industry.

    There are very good reasons why we should not do this. There are compelling environmental and security reasons. As well, we have to recognise that the Lying Reactionaries will return to power one day. If they had their hands on a nuclear fuel cycle, they would be able to instigate the production of nuclear weapons. This would be a very dangerous development. The nuclear balance is essentially precarious. It would be stupid to threaten that balance. But the Lying Reactionaries would likely not hesitate. We should not go there.

  19. We need to transition away from coal ASAP. If nuclear helps, I’m for it. That being said, I doubt that it is now a viable option, given the long lead times and upfront costs to start from scratch.

  20. Labor should agree to the The Greens 7 Demands. This way they will at least have a policy program. Which they really haven’t bothered with to this point.

  21. Steve777 says:
    Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 9:51 am

    Politics in Australia is a game of polemical fear-and-loathing. As long as I can recall – and that’s a long time – voices from all sides have been tearing into Labor. It’s no wonder that when voters want a change from the oppressive rule of the Lying Reactionaries many are afraid to vote Labor, and go looking for alternatives.

    The Parliament is a lot more heterogenous now than it has ever been. That’s a good thing in most respects. But it’s a very lucky thing that Labor have managed to scrape a majority together. They had a bare-bones win. They can enact their program, in the House, at least. However, the 74 members of the House that do not belong to Labor will be plotting to defeat the new Government. And their colleagues in the Senate will be plotting too. Rely on it. This is political self-interest in motion.

  22. nath @ #74 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 8:06 am

    Labor should agree to the The Greens 7 Demands. This way they will at least have a policy program. Which they really haven’t bothered with to this point.

    You think that the 7 demands represent a programme? 😆

    Look at Labor’s transition energy plan and that will give you some idea what an properly integrated program looks like.

  23. Cold and sunny in Sydney as well, no doubt with frost in inland suburbs.

    After raining for six months, someone turned off the big tap in the sky a couple of weeks ago. The great outdoors is (mostly) no longer a quagmire, you can hang stuff out to dry and it gets dry and you can make plans without needing to assume it’s going to rain.

    At least for the time being.



  24. There is a song in one of the Indian movie songs describing a in-house Son-in-law.
    Translated in English it means
    ” Even when you tried to get rid of the you from the house by getting hold of his hair, if you tried to hang in there by gripping the house ledge, absorbing all abuses as blessings , it is fantastic chance for a person like that to be a in-house Son-in-law. 🙂

  25. ‘The election is over. The Libs are tearing themselves & each other apart. There is serious talk of a Liberal [Party] split.’

    @SDHamiltonVIC & @StuartKells @latrobe @TheMandarinAU #splits #SouthernNats #auspol
    https://t.co/egBvoxqjs5

  26. You can’t assume that simply because ALP votes shifted to Teals that it’s because of strategic voting. It’s just as likely, much more likely in fact, that voters in other seats who have traditionally voted ALP would happily first preference a strong independent if given the chance.

    The overwhelming majority of voters are not politically engaged enough to be playing strategically dubious games with their preferences.

  27. Where is the detail of the energy transition plan?

    Serious question, I wouldn’t have expected it yet, but people are talking about it as something that already has substance?

  28. I see Labor working with the teals as being in their short term, and the country’s long term interest.

    It will help to shore up the teals support in their electorates, making it more difficult for the Coalition to return to power, and;

    it creates the possibility of a more moderate right wing force forming around them that could ultimately replace the Coalition as Labor’s opposition on the right.

  29. Socrates,
    Certainly ALP tactical voting would have been a factor.
    But I wonder if UAP advertising to put both Libs and ALP last could have had an impact on both parties PV

  30. The most evil meteorological thing is happening in Sydney.

    Westerly winds. Hot in summer, cold in winter, pollen bearing in Spring.

  31. Victoria @ #78 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 10:14 am

    ‘The election is over. The Libs are tearing themselves & each other apart. There is serious talk of a Liberal [Party] split.’

    @SDHamiltonVIC & @StuartKells @latrobe @TheMandarinAU #splits #SouthernNats #auspol
    https://t.co/egBvoxqjs5

    Thanks for this, Vic. Didn’t I predict that the Right would splinter if they didn’t win the federal election? Popcorn time.

    Hope you’re feeling better today? 🙂

  32. ‘SalvageTheFuture says:
    Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 9:41 am

    Boerwar, you completely ignore the widespread and historical opposition of traditional owners to uranium mining, nuclear power and nuclear waste on their countries….
    =================================
    Traditional owners around the world are already suffering from global warming. Their islands are disappearing under water. Their villages are falling into the sea. Their traditional hunting and gathering areas are already suffering from ecological disruption.

    If our boat sinks then we all drown. Needs must.

    In many countries there is simply not enough solar or wind resources to meet reasonable energy needs. That is why the Greens in Finland have recently reversed decades of opposition to nuclear power.

  33. The most evil meteorological thing is happening in Sydney.

    Westerly winds. Hot in summer, cold in winter, pollen bearing in Spring.

    As compared to Easterlies: wet in Summer, wet in Autumn, wet in Spring and wet in Winter.

  34. AngoraFish @ #80 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 8:17 am

    You can’t assume that simply because ALP votes shifted to Teals that it’s because of strategic voting. It’s just as likely, much more likely in fact, that voters in other seats who have traditionally voted ALP would happily first preference a strong independent if given the chance.

    The overwhelming majority of voters are not politically engaged enough to be playing strategically dubious games with their preferences.

    I don’t really understand what you mean by “strong independent.”

    The teals success came from presenting a much more centre-right personae than that of the Liberal Party.

    If they had presented anything different, I can’t see how they would not have had the success they did.

  35. Briefly:

    He’s right about the Apostasy, who have a profound resentment of Labor and who foster disaffection with Labor at all times.

    This type of attitude is just anti-democratic. Firstly, the ALP isn’t a religion; using the word “apostasy” every time you comment just makes you look like a nutcase. Secondly, the Greens cannot “foster” a segment of voters out of hypnotism. They are presenting an alternative platform, and giving voters an opportunity to demonstrate their preferences, which thanks to our preferential voting system, they are able to do while still preferencing Labor above the Liberals.

    Since the Labor Party is controlled by its Right faction; the faction of international Capital; the faction of giving away our natural endowment tax-free to multinational corporations at the expense of the commonwealth and abandoning the public to ‘market forces’; this disaffection is going to exist one way or another. The Greens party is a symptom of the disaffection, not a cause. Pretending that Greens voters, statistically the most highly-educated segment, are a bunch of misled fools because they choose an alternative to the likes of Bowen, Chalmers and Don Farrell, is genuinely pathetic.

  36. ‘Late Riser says:
    Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 9:29 am

    BW

    I get your overall point. But does offering the Greens a seat on a committee with Independents produce a net benefit to Labor?…’
    —————–
    No. Labor promised repeatedly not to do a deal with the Greens. That is another promise Labor will keep.

  37. The Greens Party is a cult.

    Any followers who vote for someone who promises to Save the Planet are headed for Kool Aid Heaven.

    He can’t. He won’t. He knows that. Cynical. Manipulative.

  38. “Since the Labor Party is controlled by its Right faction; the faction of international Capital; the faction of giving away our natural endowment tax-free to multinational corporations at the expense of the commonwealth and abandoning the public to ‘market forces’;”

    We are certainly seeing compassionate right, rather than anything that would look like progressive policy. So heavily ‘less shit’ and not much ‘actually good’. So far anyways.

  39. @C@t:

    “ The time for accommodating China is over. They’re just playing us for mugs.”

    Yes. Yes. Terminate all contact. Blow our economy up. Paint a huge target on our back. Because you just read a bit of old news click bait.

    In 2013/14 there was a massive switch in the precursor used to make methylampetamine in Australia. All the large scale manufacturing labs cases I prosecuted that dated from before that period used pseudo-ephedrine, but since then they have used ephedrine – which is extracted from a plant widely grown in china. The important of such is always only one or two steps removed from the PLA.

    This has been a known known for a decade. The article is part of 9/Faix’s drip drip drip campaign to inflame sentiment against China. Designed to trigger folk into irrational posturing and silly conclusions such as “The time for accomodating China is over”. Derpa Derpa Derpa.

    We really need to better on all of this.

  40. “Where is the detail of the energy transition plan?’

    So I take it there is no actual detail, it hasn’t yet progressed past a slogan or high level mission statement.

    Ok.

  41. SalvageTheFuture:

    Well bloody said.

    The ALP has had a firm stance against nuclear power for decades now. The Greens have nothing to do with it.

  42. Ven @ #25 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 8:45 am

    That still doesn’t explain the low PV ( 32.6%) of ALP i.e ALP PV went backwards by 0.8%.

    And the Greens PV went forwards by 1.9%. That had to come from somewhere. Probably Labor’s 0.8% went to the Greens (and teals/indies, in seats that had one), and then came straight back via preferences.

    As long as there’s preferential voting the PV discussion is a bit of a distraction. I’ve never given Labor (or the Greens) my first preference vote. Doesn’t mean I don’t support both of them. Just want to throw some encouragement to the minors and (sensible) indies, because I can.

    If anyone needs to be concerned about low primaries it’s the Coalition. Because they’ve already…formed a coalition. Merged and put up the whole “broad church” facade to hoodwinkhoover up right-wing voters. They don’t have a reliable source of third-party preferences like Labor does with the Greens. Which means they’re the ones who will struggle to win with a weak PV.

  43. The Two Hegemons Policy is dead. The existential question for Australia is what is next?

    China is seeking to wedge Australia from the US Alliance. That is not complicated.

    It is doing so economically. It is doing so with military threats. It is doing so with ‘grievances’ which directly transpose into a loss of sovereignty for Australia. It is doing so by building military bases ever closer to striking distance of Australia. It is doing so with geopolitical positioning across our resupply routes.

    Even tiny, compliant New Zealand got the angry warning shot from the China Side a couple of weeks ago.

  44. Boerwar @ #92 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 8:45 am

    ‘Late Riser says:
    Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 9:29 am

    BW

    I get your overall point. But does offering the Greens a seat on a committee with Independents produce a net benefit to Labor?…’
    —————–
    No. Labor promised repeatedly not to do a deal with the Greens. That is another promise Labor will keep.

    How is working with the crossbench to allow input on Labor’s policies doing a deal with the Greens?

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