Yesterday’s tabling of a proposed parliamentary schedule for new year resulted in another spin of the election date speculation wheel, the consensus being that it will be held on either May 7 and 14. The government has, as they say, pencilled in March 29 as the date for the budget, although “sources close to Mr Morrison” tell The Australian he may make use of his eraser if his polling improves over summer, such that March is “still a live option” for the election. That would presumably lead to South Australian Premier Steven Marshall exercising his option to delay the March 19 state election by up to three weeks in the event of a March federal election, a matter Scott Morrison denies having discussed with him.
Other election news, federal and state:
• Scott Morrison told the Liberal federal executive he was considering asking it to exercise powers to override state divisions in preselections to impose his preferred candidates in key New South Wales seats, including state MPs Andrew Constance in Gilmore and Melanie Gibbons in Hughes (Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports state Police Minister David Elliott is resisting entreaties to run in Greenway). Such a move would be “seen as a declaration of war by key members of the NSW state division”, specifically its conservatives and moderates.
• Sarah Martin of The Guardian reports Natalie Baini, who until recently was a cultural diversity manager at the Australian Football League, has withdrawn her preselection challenge against Liberal MP Fiona Martin in Reid and will instead run as an independent, complaining the party had failed to act on her complaint against “inappropriate conduct of some senior members of the party and the government”.
• Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor will yield to the insistence of local party branches and field a candidate in John Barilaro’s seat of Monaro, despite Labor leader Chris Minns rating it an “impossible task”.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reported last week on “intense speculation” that a Victorian state by-election could be on the cards in Kew, whose embattled Liberal member, Tim Smith, had been “linked with potential job prospects in Britain, where he once lived”. Sunday Herald Sun columnist “Backroom Baz” rates that Smith will linger until the election if the preselection goes to his ally David Davis, the Shadow Treasurer and Opposition Leader in the Legislative Council, but would be disposed to inflict the by-election on the party if it instead goes to Jess Wilson, a former staffer to Josh Frydenberg and current policy director at the Business Council of Australia. Also in the field are Lucas Moon, former soldier and commercial manager of construction company Winslow, who has been endorsed by Tim Costello; Monica Clark, a family lawyer; Felicity Sinfield, a police officer and Boroondara councillor; and Michael Sabljak, a former electorate officer to federal MP Michael Sukkar.
PN,
Labor won Batman by 1853 votes in 2016.
Liberal preferences favoured Labor by 4882 votes.
The Greens candidate Alex Bhathal out-polled Labor’s David Feeney on primary vote.
Alpha Zero says:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 3:09 pm
Bloos – Victoria – once the jewel in the Liberal crown…
About to have all bar 10 years out of the past 40 with the ALP in government.
It also isn’t about the length of time you are in, it is what you do in the time given to you.
Labor have had lots of success at various times at State level. No question. This is the very clear record. The results have been reversed most of the time at the Federal level, where the default winners have been the LNP. Conclusively, voters switch their support between the parties in different contests. Voter behaviour shows differentiation.
I think this gets down to one basic theme: who has the “safest hands” in the Federal Parliament. Unless Labor are seen to be at least as “safe” as the LNP, they will lose. Of course, “safe hands” can mean many things. In the present context, this most assuredly means that Labor cannot be seen to be political smugglers who will allow the Greens – whether covertly or not – into power.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 3:06 pm
A majority LNP or majority Labor Govt is a win for the parliamentary fossil fuel cartel. We can’t afford them winning again. Vote strategically.
Voters will believe that when they vote they are sharing in the choosing of a Government. They will not happily vote for a Minority result, because this means, at the very least, their own favoured choice will have “lost”. A Minority Government is the least desirable outcome from the standpoint of nearly all voters, because it would follow that politics will be unstable and unpredictable. The lose/lose result implied by a hung parliament is the worst of all worlds for most voters.
We tried to watch question time!
GHunt claiming his government the best in dealing with covid etc
TV off before OH put a foot through it..
ItzaDream says:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 1:03 pm
Sinking ship meme settling in?
Shhh We can only hope… that was the idea last time & look what happened!
Peter Brent uses history to predict the popularity of Labor States may not necessarily translate to an overwhelming victory by Albo.
https://insidestory.org.au/western-australia-to-the-rescue/
Bloos, there is also a generational thing in the ALPs favour.
For many Gen X and Y people, the LNP is seen to be the Boomer party…
The wheel will of course turn once again in future years I am sure.
The mobilisations against the Lib-Heavy by the Lib-Lite in affluent Sydney and Melbourne is an example of “safe hands” thinking in action. The Lib-Lite say they are mobilised by their anxiety around climate change (among other things). But they are unwilling to mobilise in direct support of Labor or the Greens, whom they consider to be inherently unsupportable.
The Lib-Lite are willing to mobilise against their own rather than to choose Labor or its pop-mimics, the Greens. This alone shows how hard it is for Labor to take seats from the reactionaries in the ordinary course of elections.
The best hope for Labor in the approaching election is that the Lib-Lite will split the Lib-positive vote so severely that voters will defect to them from the LNP. Maybe this will happen. But most likely, it will not make a positive difference to Labor. At the margin, Labor’s PV in seats contested by Lib-Lite Indies will probably decline, and this will harm Labor’s Senate votes.
The impulses/values/expectancies among the Lib-positive are very deeply ingrained. They are among the deepest foundations in the political culture. It is the mediation of political themes within the political culture that determines the results of elections.
The political culture has to be changed if Labor are to win more easily and more often. Labor cannot change the culture from Opposition. They need to be in Government to durably re-fashion expectancies and experiences. This is the dilemma for Labor. It is the dilemma for all those who hope for an end to reactionary domination of national politics.
Alpha Zero says:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 3:50 pm
Bloos, there is also a generational thing in the ALPs favour.
For many Gen X and Y people, the LNP is seen to be the Boomer party…
The wheel will of course turn once again in future years I am sure.
There is no reason to pre-suppose this. If anything, in the last 20 years or so things have gone from bad to worse for Labor. The rise of millennials has not caused a revival in Labor’s plurality. On the contrary, the plurality has been whittled and winnowed; chewed away by borer.
In PV terms, Labor’s result in 2019 was the worst since WW1. The splitters continue to agitate for the same result, or for an even worse result, in 2022.
Simon Katich:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 2:46 pm
When you say there’s a lack of fairness where sexual abuse is
concerned, are you referring to the accuser or the perpetrator?
If it’s the former, most rapes, for instance, are, for a host of reasons, never reported.* If you mean the latter, it can be very unfair as once someone’s named, and even subsequently acquitted, a good deal of mud will stick, exacerbated if one’s a high-profile accused like Porter.
I don’t know if there’s a solution to this, save for not naming a defendant until an indictment is presented, for at this point there’s sufficient prima facie evidence to commit an accused for trial. The defendant in the alleged rape of Higgins, for
instance, was only named at the time the charge was laid. But this is illusory as it just delays the inevitable of being named.
I think overall that Porter is a walking political time bomb – a combination of the rape allegation, the withdrawn defamation suit, the settling of a blind trust, his personal pomposity,
his sence of entitlement emanating from his teen years, having been touted as only the second PM from WA.
When he admitted that he was the minister who had been
accused of rape, I predicted at the time he would resign. I was a little premature. He’s obviously given a lot of thought to his future and now I think concedes he’s blown it, noting that his resignation is yet to be confirmed.
(On a technical point and for the sake of clarity, a person charged with an crime is called a defendant until an indictment is presented in either a District (County Court in Vic) or Surpreme Court. Thereafter, the person is decribed as the accused.)
https://theconversation.com/almost-90-of-sexual-assault-victims-do-not-go-to-police-this-is-how-we-can-achieve-justice-for-survivors-157601
While I take your point about the impact on the ALP Senate vote – the Tree Tories will be successful in seats where there are usually ingrained cultural issues with Labor.
Labor ain’t winning Warringah, Wentworth, Goldstein etc etc in a month of Sundays. My own experience of growing up and still spending time in those areas is they are more anti-Labor than specifically pro-Coalition.
In summary, if Labor were relying on those seats to form government, they’re already doomed.
Actually – Labor doesn’t get to choose the political dynamics, no party does – it has to play the ball as it lies. If anything, given the Libs overriding political principle is to win, they’re much more flexible and able to flip on a dime because winning is all that matters so principles are good for showboating but don’t matter when it comes to the crunch.
Big A Adrian says:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 11:54 am
Briefly of course completely ignores the role the labor party has played in keeping the labor party in opposition. When Rudd won in 2007 I fully expected labor to be in for 2-3 terms minimum. Labor of course decided instead to tear themselves apart and hand over government to Tony Abbott on a silver platter.
And lets not forget the DLP split that kept Menzies in power all those years.
You’re right in part. Rudd put his safety in the hands of the LNP. For his trouble, together with the Greens, they set him up for demolition. Gillard brought Rudd down, only to later put her safety in the hands of the Greens, and they reprised the acts of 2009. Together with Tony Abbott, they extinguished what few chances she had.
Labor made some grievous mistakes from the time they first chose Rudd to lead. Maybe they will have a chance to rectify their errors. Maybe not. The reactionaries have been winning here most of the time since 1996. There are few signs that this will change.
Bloos @ #808 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 2:56 pm
In no small part because when offered a chance to get on board with the issues that cohort cares about, like climate change, Labor either sits on the fence ala Shorten in 2019 or comes down on the coal/gas side as per the Albanese and Palaszczuk examples.
Can’t expect a revival if you don’t pitch something to the young voters. It’s a strategic blunder not to.
Ironically Labor could probably increase its share of the millennial vote by ignoring your advice and embracing some of the Greens policies/positions, particularly around coal, gas, fracking, and energy production.
The Chronicles of Bubsy – A New Hope
We had to hand Bubsy over to an aviary today. He’s just left in the care of a lady called Kristin.
Keeping Bubs away from the malevolent aggression of his own father was consuming most daylight hours, in that one of us had to be on playground duty at all time when we took him outside.
He loves being outdoors, but when we did let him out to fly, the father would appear out of nowhere, dive-bombing him. If Dad caught him on the ground it would be pecking and ripping at his tail feathers, and trying to gouge at his eyes.
We tried taking Bubs out yesterday and again this morning, but the Dad From Hell turned up, and the poor little bird spent most of his time dancing around pot plants and under chairs, trying to keep away from his own father.
Inside though, he was happy and chirpy. He had a set of toys he’d play with constantly: a couple of pegs, a silver bangle, dried leaves, a length of string, old USB cables, and a half of one of HI’s broken hair clasps. He loved arranging and re-arranging them, dancing around them and chirping away happily, as if commenting how clever he was.
He hated his cage in the end. We used to jokingly call it “Bird Jail”, but in the end that’s exactly what it was: a jail. The last week we had terrible trouble even getting him in through the entrance flap. He’s resist all the way, and try to escape. It used to break my heart putting him in it, but it was the only time we’d have our lives to ourselves, for a few hours after dark.
His energy and his curiosity were growing, as were his strength, skills, agility and horizons. But despite his development, he was still just a baby bird who couldn’t defend himself… sadly, against his own father. Something had to give.
So this morning HI rang FAWNA, the Mid-Coast equivalent of WIRES, via Sweetpea, the local veterinary hospital, who have a good name for rescue animals. We arranged to have Bubsy taken to a relatively nearby aviary specializing in native birds. But I didn’t expect same day service, as FAWNA had told me how busy they were after the recent storms. It came as a shock when I heard that knock on the door. I wasn’t ready to see him go so soon.
Like the mug I am I found tears rolling down my face as I said goodbye to our foster bird. I hadn’t realised how attached I’d become to the little fellow, how our lives had become intertwined.
Before putting him in the basket, I extracted – and received – a promise that he wouldn’t be euthanized. He was so healthy, after all, the young woman said. In “tip top condition” she added. He’d be well looked after. And she’d let me know how he went. It was a good sign that he flew onto her shoulder and had started playing with her earring when she first came into the house. Or maybe that’s a bad sign. I really don’t know anything about birds.
I suppose my big hope is that Nature ends up defeating Nurture, and that he can make a new, wild bird start in a new location. If only he’d been able to potter about in the trees, gradually discovering his butcherbird skillset and identity without being attacked, he’d have had a chance here in his own neighbourhood.
But it wasn’t to be. Kicked out of the nest once, he was going to stay kicked. Better to let him go now, I think, than wait vainly for the natural ways of the world to bend to my puny convenience.
Au revoir Bubsy. I hope we meet again some day.
jt1983 says:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 4:02 pm
While I take your point about the impact on the ALP Senate vote – the Tree Tories will be successful in seats where there are usually ingrained cultural issues with Labor.
Labor ain’t winning Warringah, Wentworth, Goldstein etc etc in a month of Sundays. My own experience of growing up and still spending time in those areas is they are more anti-Labor than specifically pro-Coalition.
In summary, if Labor were relying on those seats to form government, they’re already doomed.
Quite right. In the ordinary course, these seats are out of reach for Labor. They will almost always cling to Libs, one way or another. This goes to show how hard it is for Labor to win.
SA has recorded three new Covid cases, two in SA residents who both attended the same event as interstate travellers.
SA Health says it believed the two men in their 50s caught the virus from an interstate traveller who was at the same school event in Adelaide’s eastern suburbs.
These are the first community transmission cases recorded in over a year.
I think we can be certain that Briefly was not the originator of the ‘It’s Time’ slogan.
a r says:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 4:09 pm
Bloos @ #808 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 2:56 pm
The rise of millennials has not caused a revival in Labor’s plurality.
In no small part because when offered a chance to get on board with the issues that cohort cares about, like climate change, Labor either sits on the fence ala Shorten in 2019 or comes down on the coal/gas side as per the Albanese and Palaszczuk examples.
Can’t expect a revival if you don’t pitch something to the young voters. It’s a strategic blunder not to.
Ironically Labor could probably increase its share of the millennial vote by ignoring your advice and embracing some of the Greens policies/positions, particularly around coal, gas, fracking, and energy production.
Demonstrably, if Labor are seen to be Greens-in-disguise, they will be massacred. It is for this reason that Labor has to eschew green-tinted policies and polemics. The Greens – the PopLeft LaborMimics – are nothing but trouble for Labor. And, the same vein, it is for this reason that the Greens try to depict Labor as their shadows. The dysfunction is disastrous for labor and heaven-sent for the LNP.
Bushfire
It’s sad for you, but the best solution. My mother had a hand reared magpie which grew to be a “teenager”, restricted to the house and a greenhouse addition, and she thought she should set it free. It flew out over the creek and was immediately attacked by the local magpie family. She couldn’t watch.
Bushfire Bill @ #644 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 11:48 am
The Bubsy stories are a pleasant break from the usual flame wars between the usual people.
By the way….I’m not offering advice. My remarks are observations of the polemics, the political culture and the electoral results.
In news that is not news…..
Samantha Maiden
@samanthamaiden
BREAKING: Christian Porter has announced on Facebook he is quitting politics and will not contest the next election more to come
@newscomauHQ
Bushfire Bill:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 4:10 pm
Great story, with a reasonably happy ending.
Bushfire Bill @ #577 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 9:24 am
Do you just get a kick out of making stuff up, BB? Or are still holding a grudge years later because someone here saw through your disgusting racist crap and called you out on it?
Bushfire Billsays: Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 4:10 pm
The Chronicles of Bubsy – A New Hope
Like the mug I am I found tears rolling down my face as I said goodbye to our foster bird. I hadn’t realised how attached I’d become to the little fellow, how our lives had become intertwined.
***********************************************
Fantastic job Bushfire Bill !!!!!! …… you gave it your all – and hopefully nature takes over kindly to Bubsy
ar
Ironically Labor could probably increase its share of the millennial vote by ignoring your advice and embracing some of the Greens policies/positions, particularly around coal, gas, fracking, and energy production.
_____________________________________
Unfortunately, the election will probably be decided by the cohort of middle-income middle-aged voters (and those who aspire to be middle income) whose idea of an immediate climate crisis is ensuring they have home heating and cooling and being able to pay the energy costs.
That’s why the Coalition has been so successful playing to this group. We mock the Liar’s playing with the lump of coal, but he was not just trying to amuse Barnaby when he did it.
I also don’t think Labor’s problem is appealing to a certain age demographic. It’s problem is the incredible shrinking working class (other than increasingly well-heeled tradies) employees who formed the bulk of both the much larger union movement, membership of the ALP and the solid ALP vote in years gone by.
The changes in the world mean that genuine Labor/Labour parties have a smaller base and the ALP needs to look at the ‘new’ working class and work out what is driving them. Unfortunately, their big concern is not income (which is stagnant for longer working hours) but cost of living for the things that matter to them.
I wish it were otherwise. Most of the posters here are very concerned about climate change and the need to move into position to deal with it and the kinds of economic changes it will bring. But as long as one of the major parties foregoes interest in the broader future to focus exclusively on winning elections, it is not possible to win an election on climate change.
The Coalition, as long as they are in government, will do nothing more than they absolutely have to in dealing with climate change. The Greens have no fucking chance of ever getting into government, despite the utopian fantasies of some who post here, and only Labor in government will do something. It may not be what the Greens want, but it will be a hell of a lot more than will happen if the Coalition wins again.
Bloos @ #817 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 3:16 pm
Few things are less demonstrable than that. They haven’t tried taking reasonable climate/coal/fracking/energy policies to any recent election. Shorten spent all of 2019 avoiding doing just that.
Nath:
I’m now imagining a bunch of 1970s Aussie celebs singing the inspiring campaign song, “We’re Fucked.”
These are the first community transmission cases recorded in over a year.
————————-
Except that SAHealth are not calling them that. They are, apparently, classified as “locally acquired” cases.
BB
Thanks for you stories and best wishes for your adoptee. Whatever else happened there was some happiness there.
Many species hold territories against their own species. It is so very common in so many species that it must give individuals significant evolutionary advantages. Usually, dominance displays will motivate the invader to leave. If not, there is a physical fight.
Eventually, most young are booted out of house and home and sent into the big wide world. Usually, the are capable enough to keep moving if they enter an established territory and are challenged.
Eventually, if they are lucky, they find an empty territory or they are strong enough to challenge effectively for an existing territory.
WIRES needs to make very certain that individual recoveries are not released into established territories with somewhat predictable results.
It turns out that we are not particularly good at ‘guided’ evolution.
Thank you for the Busby chronicles, BB. Great work all round!
Hunt and Porter departing politics is significant since both men would have seen themselves as future leaders but know that has gone.
‘a r says:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 4:30 pm
Bloos @ #817 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 3:16 pm
Demonstrably, if Labor are seen to be Greens-in-disguise, they will be massacred.
Few things are less demonstrable than that. They haven’t tried taking reasonable climate/coal/fracking/energy policies to any recent election. Shorten spent all of 2019 avoiding doing just that.’
——————————————————
The progressive loss of rural and regional seats are a strong indicator.
‘Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 4:35 pm
Hunt and Porter departing politics is significant since both men would have seen themselves as future leaders but know that has gone.’
————————————
Yep. Their departure also causing a precipitous decline in the aver Liberal Cabinet IQ.
Don’t let the doors of parliament hit your entitled behind on the way out, Christian.
Two down, one to go. I can’t see Scott Morrison hanging around to be Opposition Leader if he is defeated. Especially with a Labor Speaker who would give him no quarter.
Vote 1 Linda Burney for Australia’s first Indigenous Speaker!
Boerwar
Porter is probably not as smart as he thinks he is.
Wat Tyler says:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 2:08 pm
Good to see Barbados join the republic club. Of course, if monarchist hyperbole is to be believed, the Barbadian Hitler, now free from the fear of intervention from Buckingham Palace, is making plans to take over the country and begin a reign of terror!
Seriously, good for them. I notice they went with the final Governor-General as their inaugural President, which is also a good idea and worth considering if ever we go down that avenue (which I imagine will happen some time in the 23rd century at the current rate of momentum.)
_________________________________________________________
Ha, ha. (Bitter laugh.) I concur completely Wat. What helped Barbados become a republic was that its parliament simply legislated for the change. One Barbadon political observer told the ABC that had a referendum occurred, partisan politics and the usual confusion accompanying campaigns would have ensued, almost guaranteeing nothing would change. Sound familiar?
During our 1999 republic referendum campaign, when it became obvious it would be defeated, my mother told me that sadly, she and my father would not live to see an Australian republic. “But you will,” my mother said.
Well, my parents are no longer alive, so that part of my mother’s prediction was fulfilled. But the way things are going, I fear the second part of her prediction will be as wrong as the first part was right.
A R:
While there’s a lot to be criticised about Labor’s 2019 campaign, I don’t know if I buy the argument that they suffered from not running hard enough on climate / environmental issues. It’s definitely true that they stuffed the messaging (as they sadly did in many areas), but as far as policy goes, Labor in 2019 had some of the most ambition climate policies any major party has ever brought to an Australian Federal election (admittedly, there’s not a great deal of competition there), and they were punished hard for it.
There are rumors about Frydenberg and it was only last week that he tweeted he preferred playing tennis over being in Canberra.
David Rowe
Asha says:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 4:40 pm
A R:
While there’s a lot to be criticised about Labor’s 2019 campaign, I don’t know if I buy the argument that they suffered from not running hard enough on climate / environmental issues. It’s definitely true that they stuffed the messaging (as they sadly did in many areas), but as far as policy goes, Labor in 2019 had some of the most ambition climate policies any major party has ever brought to an Australian Federal election (admittedly, there’s not a great deal of competition there), and they were punished hard for it.
_________________________________
Asha
The beauty of those demanding that Labor run harder on climate change is that if Labor gets elected, the parasites will take credit for pushing Labor to take the ‘courageous’ stance, and if Labor fails, the parasites will complain that Labor did not run hard enough on these issues. It’s lose/lose (given the likely election loss) for Labor and win/win for the parasites.
Asha @ #840 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 4:40 pm
It was the messaging they stuffed up, not the policies. So what did they do? Fix the messaging? No, they dropped the policies 🙁
I suppose if you can afford defamation actions, you can afford to do some seat level polling.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/12/01/christian-porter-to-quit-politics-wont-stand-at-next-elecition/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Extra%20-%2020211201
No need for any cushy government appointment for Christian. He will be overrun with demands for his services from major private corporations.
Bert
“The Bubsy stories are a pleasant break from the usual flame wars between the usual people.”
+1 They are also movingly well written.
PlayerOne
Some of the policies were poorly written so dropping them was the right thing to do.
‘Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 4:39 pm
Boerwar
Porter is probably not as smart as he thinks he is.’
—————————
True. But that still leaves plenty of scope for him to be brighter than they tawdry time servers who are sticking with their seats.
“Labor ain’t winning Warringah, Wentworth, Goldstein etc etc in a month of Sundays. My own experience of growing up and still spending time in those areas is they are more anti-Labor than specifically pro-Coalition.”
I still think if Labor has a good election win its could harm rather then help some of these independents. That swinging voters and progressive voters will be voting Labor rather then independents because they have caught on to the Labor wave.
It doesn’t mean that Labor will win these seats because they won’t. But it does take the wind out of the sails from some of these independents hoping to be the most prominent non-Liberal canidate in the final two party preferred contest.
Labor has to be seen as “safe hands”. This is the distilled experience of 120 years of Federal politics. As long as they are shadowed by the Greens they will be seen as totally unsafe. True story.
The lowest risk polemical course for Labor is to ignore the Greens as far as possible, and to stay well away from green-tinted themes. Albo has been astute in this.