Beware the Ides of March (or May)

Odds shorten on a May federal election; Morrison threatens a nuclear option for preselections in New South Wales; plus news on state by-elections, actual or potential.

Yesterday’s tabling of a proposed parliamentary schedule for new year resulted in another spin of the election date speculation wheel, the consensus being that it will be held on either May 7 and 14. The government has, as they say, pencilled in March 29 as the date for the budget, although “sources close to Mr Morrison” tell The Australian he may make use of his eraser if his polling improves over summer, such that March is “still a live option” for the election. That would presumably lead to South Australian Premier Steven Marshall exercising his option to delay the March 19 state election by up to three weeks in the event of a March federal election, a matter Scott Morrison denies having discussed with him.

Other election news, federal and state:

• Scott Morrison told the Liberal federal executive he was considering asking it to exercise powers to override state divisions in preselections to impose his preferred candidates in key New South Wales seats, including state MPs Andrew Constance in Gilmore and Melanie Gibbons in Hughes (Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports state Police Minister David Elliott is resisting entreaties to run in Greenway). Such a move would be “seen as a declaration of war by key members of the NSW state division”, specifically its conservatives and moderates.

Sarah Martin of The Guardian reports Natalie Baini, who until recently was a cultural diversity manager at the Australian Football League, has withdrawn her preselection challenge against Liberal MP Fiona Martin in Reid and will instead run as an independent, complaining the party had failed to act on her complaint against “inappropriate conduct of some senior members of the party and the government”.

Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor will yield to the insistence of local party branches and field a candidate in John Barilaro’s seat of Monaro, despite Labor leader Chris Minns rating it an “impossible task”.

John Ferguson of The Australian reported last week on “intense speculation” that a Victorian state by-election could be on the cards in Kew, whose embattled Liberal member, Tim Smith, had been “linked with potential job prospects in Britain, where he once lived”. Sunday Herald Sun columnist “Backroom Baz” rates that Smith will linger until the election if the preselection goes to his ally David Davis, the Shadow Treasurer and Opposition Leader in the Legislative Council, but would be disposed to inflict the by-election on the party if it instead goes to Jess Wilson, a former staffer to Josh Frydenberg and current policy director at the Business Council of Australia. Also in the field are Lucas Moon, former soldier and commercial manager of construction company Winslow, who has been endorsed by Tim Costello; Monica Clark, a family lawyer; Felicity Sinfield, a police officer and Boroondara councillor; and Michael Sabljak, a former electorate officer to federal MP Michael Sukkar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

976 comments on “Beware the Ides of March (or May)”

Comments Page 18 of 20
1 17 18 19 20
  1. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 4:14 pm
    “SA has recorded three new Covid cases, two in SA residents who both attended the same event as interstate travellers.

    SA Health says it believed the two men in their 50s caught the virus from an interstate traveller who was at the same school event in Adelaide’s eastern suburbs.

    These are the first community transmission cases recorded in over a year.”

    Many people will not be happy that SA opened up when it did. It also doesn’t help that they had the “as long as you’ve had a test you don’t have to wait for a result to come in” rule for vaccinated interstaters.

    Marshall may suffer the loss on credibility and support that he gained (fairly or otherwise) during the Covid-19 “isolationist” period.

    Hio hum.

  2. Bloos,
    While I am not quite as pessimistic as you I understand where you are coming from and think you have most things pretty correct. Your observations are appreciated, thank you.

  3. Sure, Christian. Whatever you say, Christian:

    Mr Porter said he wanted to spend more time with his family, after joining the federal Parliament in 2013 and also spending five years in the Western Australian Parliament, where he also served as attorney-general.

    … “My little boy was born one day before I first became a Commonwealth minister. He and his little sister have never known anything but their father’s regular absence and so the next part of my working life will be anchored around being close to them and being there for them.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/christian-porter-to-quit-parliament-at-the-next-election-20211201-p59dxd.html

  4. Asha @ #840 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 3:40 pm

    It’s definitely true that they stuffed the messaging (as they sadly did in many areas), but as far as policy goes, Labor in 2019 had some of the most ambition climate policies any major party has ever brought to an Australian Federal election (admittedly, there’s not a great deal of competition there), and they were punished hard for it.

    For most voters it’s the messaging that matters, because that’s all they’ll see.

    Labor could have the most beautifully crafted climate policies in the world, but if the only thing 95% of the electorate sees is Bill Shorten refusing to give a straight answer about Adani, or giving one answer north of the Queensland/NSW border and another south of it, that’s what they’re going to remember.

    I lost track of the number of times a hopeful millenial set Shorten up for a softball answer on the subject only to get a mealy-mouthed waffle in reply. Hugely disappointing. These people were looking for any excuse to come on board, and were just left hanging. 🙁

  5. Political Nightwatchman
    Exactly just look at Zoe Daniels because she would have no hope if she ran for the ALP or the Greens but running as an independent gives her a chance. People make the mistake of wanting independents to look and sound left wing but that makes them unelectable.

  6. Yet another example of why we need the Greens in the balance of power to get serious action on the climate emergency…

    Labor to dump fuel emissions plan in next step on climate

    Labor will dump a contentious plan to set new fuel standards for millions of motorists in a bid to neutralise a growing political attack from Prime Minister Scott Morrison ahead of a bigger fight on climate change.

    The vehicle emission standard will be formally dropped when Labor leader Anthony Albanese signs off on the party’s climate policy with shadow ministers, as they prepare for a caucus briefing this Friday on the coming election campaign.

    Mr Albanese will launch Labor’s bid for power at a campaign rally in Sydney this weekend to start a blitz through marginal electorates before Christmas, readying the party for the official election contest early next year.

    The climate policy, including Labor’s target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, is being restricted to a small group of shadow cabinet members before climate spokesman Chris Bowen speaks at the National Press Club on Monday.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-to-dump-fuel-emissions-plan-in-next-step-on-climate-20211130-p59dkj.html

  7. When 9 Entertainment has a headline that the Colossal Fossil has been caught in a trap of the USA and China there is a problem.

    The USA President and the China President have both been around the traps for a very long time – and know how to set traps for the the likes of the Pentecostal with the glass jaw.

    But we all know (or knew) that Australia’s largest TRADING partner is (was) China – and that prior negotiation between China and the USA to equalize the Balance of Trade between the 2 had seen Australia lose markets to China, replaced by the USA.

    Australia declaring War on China just made matters worse (aligned to other petty responses prohibiting China investment in Australia – and, yes, replicating Trump, Australia STARTED the Trade War with China, and fell straight into the trap 9 Entertainment now refers to).

    And now 2 with the leadership batten in their knapsack are gone from politics

    Lloyd Bridges (of Sea Hunt fame) gone.

    And the individual from WA gone.

    Is there another Lloyd Bridges of Sea Hunt fame in the wings to continue the family dynasty?

    Aka the Downers.

    Perhaps the seat will go the same way Downer’s family seat has gone.

    Or perhaps they could nominate the “darling” of Bastiaan and Sukkar, Smith, seeing federal support did not save him from the so called “moderates” (if there is such a thing in the Liberal Party post Howard).

    Given that War with China has now gone, because Australia would be wiped out in a nano second there is always God, the God who makes babies, to pander to.

    And this is government!!!!!

    Australia continues to be the laughing stock of the World.

    A legend in its own backyard, according to the Colossal Fossil.

    Who has he got left to talk to – even the friendless Johnson does not want to associate with him because of his approach to climate?

    And we got wedged over the submarines – the builders being the UK and the USA.

    Thank you for the money!!!!

    Except France was not told.

    You know the rest.

    This is not a government, it is a fiasco.

  8. “Mr Porter said he wanted to spend more time with his family,”

    I hope he has time enough at home to teach his little boy to never again delete all the texts from his mobile phone.

  9. ‘Nicko says:
    Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 5:04 pm

    Labor always does better with young people than the Liberals. But it is the over 60s who overwhelmingly vote for the Liberals .’
    ———————-
    The beauty of us over sixties is that we keep dying. The problem is that the younger people who don’t die will all turn 60 one day.

  10. The Greens are the only party giving dates on closing gas and coal. Not even the Independents are going their, because they know its a vote loser.

  11. ‘Socrates says:
    Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 5:04 pm

    “Mr Porter said he wanted to spend more time with his family,”

    I hope he has time enough at home to teach his little boy to never again delete all the texts from his mobile phone.’
    —————–
    LOL

  12. Looks to me like the rise of the Teal Independents is just the Electorate pushing for a more balanced gender representation than the misogynistic and chauvinistic Liberal Party is able to deliver in traditional Liberal seats.

  13. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 5:00 pm
    Political Nightwatchman
    Exactly just look at Zoe Daniels because she would have no hope if she ran for the ALP or the Greens but running as an independent gives her a chance. People make the mistake of wanting independents to look and sound left wing but that makes them unelectable.

    ___________________________________

    My general observation (and yes, there may be exceptions) is that independents tend to win seats formerly safe for one of the major parties (Coalition or Labor) and tend to win them when that party is in power and the formerly loyal voters have become frustrated with being taken for granted by the party they routinely support.

    The Liberals are in government and city Liberal voters in previously reliable seats are disenchanted with the total lack of policy from THEIR government. I don’t know about Zoe Daniel, but the others are typical conservatives who are sick of how their party is operating at the moment. Should they be elected and their votes required to shore up a minority Coalition government, I’m sure that’s the way they will go. Mind you, how that will affect the arrangements with the Coalition parasites (they call themselves the Nationals) will be interesting.

  14. “I know that the Mighty Ant loves to prance about but he has 1 vote. It was Labor what done it.”

    ***

    It was a joint effort, comrade!

  15. I bet the Liberals now preselect a woman for the seat of Pearce, Christian Porter no doubt has a new job in the legal profession lined up.

  16. Porter’s resignation is headed “Bombshell announcement”.
    Only to those who weren’t watching.
    Oh dear, so sad.

    In his statement, Mr Porter complained of how he had been treated.

    “There are few, if any, constants left in modern politics. Perhaps the only certainty now is that there appears to be no limit to what some will say or allege or do to gain an advantage over a perceived enemy,” he claimed.

    “This makes the harshness that can accompany the privilege of representing people, harder than ever before. But even though I have experienced perhaps more of the harshness of modern politics than most, there are no regrets.”

    Mr Porter made no hint as to his future plans, only saying he would spend more time with his family.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/12/01/christian-porter-to-quit-politics-wont-stand-at-next-elecition/?

  17. We are back to the advice of Fraser.

    National savings has doubled.

    And money supply is where it is.

    So not only National savings skyrocketing but also money under the bed.

  18. I guess too the friends of Kate would feel some vindication, Porter most likely would still be AG if those allegations from 30 years ago had never surfaced

  19. Bloos says:
    Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 2:57 pm
    The pundits very consistently over-rate Labor’s chances. The win/lose record is very discouraging for Labor. Consider the period from 1917 until 1972. Labor won from Opposition just once during that period, and that was in 1929. The Scullin Government did not last 2 years. Curtin – the great, the unequalled, the extraordinary Curtin – could not win from Opposition.

    Gough won in 1972 at the peak of opposition to the Viet Nam War. Labor was split at that time but was not as badly split as the reactionary hegemony, and Gough eked out a win. His Government was destroyed within 3 years.
    __________________________________________________________
    Have to disagree on a few points Bloos. Regarding Labor’s win in 1972, the ALP was in fact pretty united by then, despite some residual resentment in the Victorian branch about the 1970 federal intervention to remove the old socialist left-dominated executive. Whitlam was not embarrassed by any party members making ridiculous or inflammatory statements.
    Australia had actually already withdrawn its combat troops from Vietnam the previous year, although conscription remained. National service was an issue in 1972, but not the main one, even when Whitlam promised to abolish the draft and release all draft resisters from prison within 24 hours of Labor coming to power. A promise he fulfilled.
    I also don’t think we should get hung up on how many times Labor has won from opposition. It’s how many years they’ve been in office that counts. From 1901 to 1972, Labor was in government for only 16.5 years. Since and including 1972, Labor has won nine elections and the Coalition 10. Labor has also been in power for 22 years; only five fewer years than the Tories.
    So it’s not as bad as some people think. Chin up.

  20. Sally Rugg
    @sallyrugg
    ·
    16m
    Porter isn’t leaving bc of “harshness of politics” – he’s had nothing but brutish protection from Morrison & cabinet who closed ranks around him when allegations were exposed + rabid cheerleading of half Murdoch press. Didn’t even face an inquiry!

    He can’t face voters of Pearce.

  21. a r

    For most voters it’s the messaging that matters, because that’s all they’ll see.

    Labor could have the most beautifully crafted climate policies in the world, but if the only thing 95% of the electorate sees is Bill Shorten refusing to give a straight answer about Adani, or giving one answer north of the Queensland/NSW border and another south of it, that’s what they’re going to remember.

    Exactly. Labor had horrific messaging in 2019.

    They had aproximately 500,000,000 “‘Positive Policies” (remember those?) to rebuild swing-sets in parks and install security cameras in pedestrian malls. Not exactly a vision for the future, but confusing as hell.

    They fell into the LNP/media trap of thinking the electorate expected that everything had to be costed and paid for upfront. They subsequently could not explain their tax policies in a coherent way. Who can forget Chris Bowen saying, “If you don’t like our policies, don’t vote for us”. A lot of people took his advice.

    Labor had ambitious climate policies, sure, but instead of having the courage to advocate that the policies would create lots of jobs and prosperity in outer suburban and regional areas, they tried to trinagulate the problem by running one line in Queensland that was coal friendly, and a different one in Victoria that was climate friendly. This was then busted wide open by the Adani convoy and the media which was all too happy to highlight Labor’s incoherence.

  22. The individual from WA’s “enemy” is the lady now dead – and what she has left behind.

    The individual from WA has called that lady a liar.

    That is the individual from WA’s defence.

  23. Boerwar at 4:59 pm

    Morrison had two more floor crossers today: O’Brien and Christensen.

    Has Bullshitman booked them in for a quiet chat and ‘counselling’ yet, or is that reserved for the lady chaps ?

  24. Lizzie
    “This makes the harshness that can accompany the privilege of representing people, harder than ever before. But even though I have experienced perhaps more of the harshness of modern politics than most, there are no regrets.”

    Yes, Christian is the real victim here.

    Now he has more time to spend with his blind trust.

  25. ‘lizzie says:
    Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 5:09 pm

    Porter’s resignation is headed “Bombshell announcement”.
    …’
    ————————————–
    Bombshells ain’t what they used to be.

  26. Greensborough Growler @ #874 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 5:09 pm

    Looks to me like the rise of the Teal Independents is just the Electorate pushing for a more balanced gender representation than the misogynistic and chauvinistic Liberal Party is able to deliver in traditional Liberal seats.

    I think it’s more to do with both parties tarnishing their own brands with the idiotic policies of their donors.

  27. Andrew Leigh
    @ALeighMP
    ·
    15m
    The Liberals have abandoned their voter ID bill.

    But Labor has significant concerns with the govt’s political campaigners bill. While the Senate amendments we’ve secured are the best achievable outcome for charities, a Labor government would revisit this framework.

    That’s odd. Stoker was on Aft Briefing at 4 pm defending it.

  28. Evan

    It was reported in the WA a media weeks ago that Porter would resign from parliament and attempt to start a career as a barrister in Sydney, where he has been spending a bit of time lately.

    The report was denied, of course.

    Funny how things have changed.

    Likewise Hunt said on ABC TV a few weeks ago he was endorsed and running for the next election.

    They really do take us for mugs.

  29. Porter was sighted the other day at Coogee Beach in Sydney, where his new partner lives.
    Wondering if Labor will now put extra resources into Flinders? Take away Greg Hunt’s personal vote and that one becomes interesting

  30. Rexxy,

    You always say something asinine like that.

    The difference here is that it is traditional Liberal seats and it’s woman challenging the status quo.

  31. Rex Patrick
    @Senator_Patrick
    ·
    48m
    .
    @cporterwa
    was a failure as Attorney-General. He demonstrated very poor judgment, supported the PM’s secrecy mania, persecuted whistleblowers and undermined parliamentary standards/ democratic accountability. It is good he’s exiting Parliament.

  32. Yes BB, may Bubsy return one day and shit on you from a great height.

    It would make a nice change in comparison to all the shitting on me from a low height he’s been managing for the past four-and-a-half weeks.

    Thanks to all those who offered kind words about Bubsy and his Chronicles. If you’d seen the state he was in when I found him you’d know I had no choice.

Comments Page 18 of 20
1 17 18 19 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *