The latest fortnightly federal poll from Roy Morgan records Labor’s lead increasing from 54-46 in the previous poll to 55.5-44.5, from primary votes of 35.5% of both the Coalition (down one) and Labor (up one), 12% for the Greens (up half) and 3.5% for One Nation (steady). It has been noted that the two-party result, which is based on respondent-allocated preferences, credits Labor with nearly 70% of all minor party and independent preferences compared with 60% at the 2019 election. This has to some extent been a feature of Morgan’s polling throughout the current term, though never quite to this degree before. Given the size of the non-major party vote in the poll, the effect of such distinctions is considerable, adding around two-and-a-half points to Labor’s two-party result compared with the 2019 election and more than one point compared with the previous poll a fortnight ago.
State breakdowns credit Labor with two-party leads in all six states, a first for the sixteen Morgan polls published this term (the first of which was in July last year). Labor’s two-party results are 55.5% in New South Wales (up two points on last time for a swing of nearly 8%), 58% in Victoria (up three, a swing of about 5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (up four-and-a-half points, a swing of around 10%), 53.5% in Western Australia (steady, a swing of around 9%), 55.5% in South Australia (down two, a swing of around 5%) and 53% from the particularly small sample size in Tasmania (down five, a 3% swing to the Liberals). The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2795.
Also, it’s been pointed out to me that the new Essential Research website includes the voting intention numbers from the last two polls, although it seems the existing policy of unloading these results once a quarter will otherwise be maintained. After excluding the 7% undecided, the latest result is Coalition 39.4%, Labor 38.3%, Greens 10.6%, One Nation 4.3% and United Australia Party 2.1%. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has it at Labor 48, Coalition 45 and undecided 7; applying 2019 preference flows, I make it around 52-48 to Labor.
The display also features a lot of previously unavailable results from early last year, plus results throughout the term for the United Australia Party (whose much-touted recent surge doesn’t amount to much if this pollster is to be believed). This provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which you can peruse here. The changes recorded in the “since previous” column show the effect of the three voting intention polls since Newspoll, which included a relatively strong result for the Coalition from Resolve Strategic, a slightly above par one from Essential Research, and a weak one from Roy Morgan.
2,161 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5 to Labor”
Evan @ #2105 Monday, November 29th, 2021 – 9:42 pm
• Figures from traditionally strong Labor booths showed strong swings against the ALP in BASS.
• Voter concerns about jobs fuelled some of the big swings in Labor heartland booths
• Some of the biggest swings against the ALP in Bass were in polling booths in Launceston’s northern and eastern suburbs
• Rocherlea registered a 15 per cent swing against Labor after preferences. At Ravenswood the swing was 10 per cent and at Waverley it was 9.7 per cent.
“I don’t trust Bill Shorten” was also a common theme amongst those who flipped their vote to the Coalition or alternative conservative options in Labor strong booths.
Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP) gained 9.7 per cent of first preference votes at the Waverley polling place. The UAP’s primary vote at the Newnham booth was 9.7 per cent and at Ravenswood 8.0 per cent. Preferences from many of those votes flowed to the Liberal Party and gifted B. Archer the seat.
Concern about unemployment and the need to generate more jobs for young people is common in suburbs like Ravenswood, Rocherlea and Waverley.
If Labor can not come up with policy that creates jobs for young people in Bass and Braddon, instead of threatening the jobs of their parents [mining, timber industry, farming etc] with a poorly explained climate change policy, seeing the back of the untrusted Shorten may not be enough to flip either seat back to the ALP;. I hope the ALP can win both seats back on JLN preferences, go Jackie !!
Then again, Bass and Braddon voters are a fickle mob who made a fool out of me at the last election. Once bitten, twice shy.
Bass could do anything, and Bridget Archer making a name for herself standing up to Morrison makes it more complicated. If she runs again for the Libs, she’s the sort of candidate who could win despite the unpopularity of Morrison, and if she runs as an independent, she should do better than Julia Banks in 2019. (Tassie is slightly friendlier to indies than the outer suburbs of Melbourne.)
(Bass was also crazy strong for the Libs at the state election, but that was more Peter Gutwein’s personal vote.)
Its also disappointing that you didn’t answer the two clear and simple questions I posed to you.
“Propping up climate destroying and dying industries is not in the best interests of these regions.”
True. But when are the Greens going to show up in some of these towns, buy a few beers and patiently explain this to the voters in a way that will actually convince them so?
Do you accept that voters aren’t all well informed and enlightened?
I think you’d show good faith and answering these.
More broadly, it is disappointing to see some others resorting to abuse in response to Labor’s own positions on Adani and Beetaloo.
Labor have finally got their politics straightened out on these Junk themes. The wedges won’t fly this time. Labor is not a Parliamentary Trojan Horse for Greenware. Excellent.
Hither from, when the Greens campaign on these themes, they will be campaigning for Labor. This is great. Labor will need all the help they can get if they are to topple the Reactionaries. I’m more optimistic about Labor’s chances than at any time since the insurrection that brought down Abbott, who was surely going to lead the Liberals to electoral ruin. Labor have a chance to win and, moreover, to win very well indeed.
It goes without saying that when the Junk campaign on Beetaloo and Adani, this time around they will be campaigning against themselves. The LNP have also begun to campaign against themselves in various ways on climate change, corruption and the role/s of women in society and in politics.
In 2019, Labor ran self-destructive policies and polemics. These have been dropped by Albo, and we can see the consequences. The focus has been on the Reactionaries – on their incompetence, their deceits, their insults and their attempts to divide the electorate.
This augurs well for Labor. Maybe they can pull off a once-in-a-century win.
If I had a dollar for every time the word “junk” has showed up on PB today (from the same person, in the same context), I could probably take the rest of the week off work.
Bird of paradox says:
Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 1:56 am
If I had a dollar for every time the word “junk” has showed up on PB today
Yup. It’s a great word. Perfect fit for the utterly vain popsters, hucksters and other delinquents who bludge hereabouts, sporting their junk mail.
Labor has preselected its candidate for O’Connor early this time around. Not leaving it to the last minute.
Bushfire Bill @ #2116 Monday, November 29th, 2021 – 10:04 pm
As usual, you just make stuff up whenever you get caught out.
I said, as I have said many times here, that I voted Labor in the last election. Because that’s what you asked, remember?
I haven’t decided who to vote for in this election, because we don’t even know who the candidates are yet. I realize that might be hard to understand by those who blindly vote for a party without even bothering to find out what their policies are.
Clear enough for you?
The real question in NSW is how does Labor see its chances in Page and Lindsay. Lindsay could swing Labor’s way with the right candidate and the right local campaign. I am not hearing anything from Labor that would cause a voter in Nepean Plaza to stop and say Scomo has to go!