The latest fortnightly federal poll from Roy Morgan records Labor’s lead increasing from 54-46 in the previous poll to 55.5-44.5, from primary votes of 35.5% of both the Coalition (down one) and Labor (up one), 12% for the Greens (up half) and 3.5% for One Nation (steady). It has been noted that the two-party result, which is based on respondent-allocated preferences, credits Labor with nearly 70% of all minor party and independent preferences compared with 60% at the 2019 election. This has to some extent been a feature of Morgan’s polling throughout the current term, though never quite to this degree before. Given the size of the non-major party vote in the poll, the effect of such distinctions is considerable, adding around two-and-a-half points to Labor’s two-party result compared with the 2019 election and more than one point compared with the previous poll a fortnight ago.
State breakdowns credit Labor with two-party leads in all six states, a first for the sixteen Morgan polls published this term (the first of which was in July last year). Labor’s two-party results are 55.5% in New South Wales (up two points on last time for a swing of nearly 8%), 58% in Victoria (up three, a swing of about 5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (up four-and-a-half points, a swing of around 10%), 53.5% in Western Australia (steady, a swing of around 9%), 55.5% in South Australia (down two, a swing of around 5%) and 53% from the particularly small sample size in Tasmania (down five, a 3% swing to the Liberals). The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2795.
Also, it’s been pointed out to me that the new Essential Research website includes the voting intention numbers from the last two polls, although it seems the existing policy of unloading these results once a quarter will otherwise be maintained. After excluding the 7% undecided, the latest result is Coalition 39.4%, Labor 38.3%, Greens 10.6%, One Nation 4.3% and United Australia Party 2.1%. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has it at Labor 48, Coalition 45 and undecided 7; applying 2019 preference flows, I make it around 52-48 to Labor.
The display also features a lot of previously unavailable results from early last year, plus results throughout the term for the United Australia Party (whose much-touted recent surge doesn’t amount to much if this pollster is to be believed). This provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which you can peruse here. The changes recorded in the “since previous” column show the effect of the three voting intention polls since Newspoll, which included a relatively strong result for the Coalition from Resolve Strategic, a slightly above par one from Essential Research, and a weak one from Roy Morgan.
Firefox
Well, the Wran state Labor government created 20 national parks in NSW, protecting more than a third of the NSW coastline. Bob Carr greatly expanded the national park estate in NSW by a further 2 million hectares.
Further, it was Carr Government acting to severely limit land clearing in NSW that allowed Australia to carve out the clause in the Kyoto protocol counting reduced land clearing towards our climate emission reductions.
Of course, the LNP abolished those land clearing laws, leading to sky-rocking rates of land clearing in NSW.
But you know, Lib-Lab same same *insert sarcasm here*
The Labor vs Greens war is so tiresome, the same predictable shots back and forth time after time.
As for QLD, I would assume state Labor holds seats in those coalmining areas around Rockhampton and Gladstone because Anastasia is perceived to be more supportive of the resources industry than federal labor
JimmyD says:
Monday, November 29, 2021 at 9:27 pm
Firefox
Some either don’t know or don’t care about Labor’s terrible record but yet still fanatically and unquestioningly support them anyway.
Well, the Wran state Labor government created 20 national parks in NSW, protecting more than a third of the NSW coastline. Bob Carr greatly expanded the national park estate in NSW by a further 2 million hectares.
But you know, Lib-Lab same same *insert sarcasm here*
___________________
That is a great achievement Jimmy. I could point out that in the 60s and 70s the Victorian Liberal government of Hamer/Thompson gazetted 781,932ha of National Parks.
Is that same/same?
Albo on 7.30, fairly solid, Leigh gave him a good run tonight. He will need to campaign far better than Shorten did, and make sure Morrison and the Murdoch press can not run a scare campaign again.
I think WA and VIC look good for Labor, NSW is obviously where Morrison thinks he can make some seat gains, and as ever, it comes down to QLD. On my reading, only possible seat gains for Albo there are Longman and Flynn
I think Tasmanian Labor are in such a bad state that Bass and Braddon will remain Liberal seats. And Labor will not win Boothby this time either
I believe the Greens promised half a million public housing homes.
Can any of the local devotees tell me where one might be built?
NSW, good result for the ALP would be basically retaining everything they currently have, not sure if Reid and Robertson are chances for pickups. Gilmore will be hard to retain
nath, are you suggesting that the present iteration of the Victorian Liberals have similar views when it comes to conservation as the Liberals in the 60s and 70s?
I think Hamer would find the party of Matthew Guy, Marcus Bastiaan, and Michael Sukkar unrecognisable.
Firefox’s comment was about Labor’s record, and while I certainly think Labor has done some bad things on the environment (the continuing refusal of the Victorian ALP to establish the Great Forest National Park and the federal ALP’s failure to protect the Tarkine being two glaring examples), but I do not agree that Labor’s record is uniformly bad.
And I do believe that Joh’s Queensland National Party were quite prolific in creating National Parks.
I think the creation of National Parks in decades gone by have little relevance to today’s environmental issues.
Amazing effort by Hamer to create national parks in the 60s when he didn’t become premier until 1972. And Thompson followed him.
Would be interested if there were any truth in michael’s post.
nath said,
All right fair enough, but do you honestly think that the ALP would ever have allowed the kinds of land clearing laws as those introduced by the LNP in Queensland and NSW? I think that question is certainly relevant to today’s environmental issues and whether Liberal and Labor can be considered same-same.
For the record I think the answer is no, given QLD Labor ended broadscale land-clearing allowed under the laws introduced by Newman, and NSW Labor has promised to reverse the permissive land-clearing laws introduced under the Liberals.
Windhover says:
Monday, November 29, 2021 at 9:56 pm
Amazing effort by Hamer to create national parks in the 60s when he didn’t become premier until 1972. And Thompson followed him.
Would be interested if there were any truth in michael’s post.
___________
Well spotted Windy, I was going to include Bolte’s modest efforts but instead just stuck to Hamer and Thompson.
JimmyD says:
I think that question is certainly relevant to today’s environmental issues and whether Liberal and Labor can be considered same-same.
____________
I think Labor have a better record on the environment, let’s say same/same-ish?
nath, I guess I’ll call that a concession-ish?
JimmyD says:
Monday, November 29, 2021 at 10:02 pm
nath, I guess I’ll call that a concession-ish?
________
What concession? I think it was Firefox who you were arguing with. If being slightly better than the Liberals gives you any satisfaction, enjoy yourself!
Says the apparently dumb P1, who assured us last night she voted Labor.
P1 is an outright liar, so mixed up about her own fairy stories she can’t even keep one of her bullshit yarns going for 24 hours.
BB
There’s a grass airstrip near Forster on an island.. whose is that?
This is for stooge Windhover
So Michael, one part of your statement provably false. Care to share your source for the rest or is it straight from fantasyland
Iconic Aboriginal Actor David Gulpillil has died.
3z @ #2105 Monday, November 29th, 2021 – 9:42 pm
Certainly not in the Council area they run in Melbourne.
nath
Don’t be cute. You are a participant in the same-same rhetoric.
Jeez the Cain/Kirner governments did amazing work on Vic National Parks. I’m guessing a lot of that was creation of the Great Alpine NP, which integrated and connected a whole lot of smaller parks in the Victorian Alps.
Thanks Michael, so national parks created under labor in Victoria dwarf liberal national parks, even when libs were first responders.
But same-same. Keep pulling mike.
The Junk have been invaluable contributors in the restoration and maintenance of Reactionary rule, commencing in 2009 and culminating in the Miracle election of 2019. They have made correspondingly significant contributions to the destruction of the environment in this country, and to the sabotage by the reactionaries of international efforts in relation to climate change. They are in all things the intransigent – the implacable – counter-agents of reform.
JimmyD @ #2121 Monday, November 29th, 2021 – 10:13 pm
Nah. He’s the main protagonist in the ‘Labor is worse’ rhetoric.
Windhover says:
Monday, November 29, 2021 at 10:13 pm
Thanks Michael, so national parks created under labor in Victoria dwarf liberal national parks, even when libs were first responders.
But same-same. Keep pulling mike.
_____________________
we weren’t arguing about that. You accused me of making shit up. Suck on that fat one.
Evan says:
Monday, November 29, 2021 at 9:44 pm
NSW, good result for the ALP would be basically retaining everything they currently have, not sure if Reid and Robertson are chances for pickups. Gilmore will be hard to retain
————
I can’t assess the accuracy of this information, but on last week’s Party Room podcast Laura Tingle indicated – apparently drawing on insider knowledge- that the NSW Liberals now hold little hope of making seat gains and are on the defensive in their marginals.
You know what I don’t get? Why these rabid Greens supporters waste so much time on this blog, every single day, taking potshots at Labor supporters, when they could be out strategising with other like-minded individuals around how to grow their vote. I guess that they don’t do this is why their vote never grows. They just like to behave like jerks towards Labor supporters here instead.
nath @ #1708 Monday, November 29th, 2021 – 9:45 pm
Queensland has 223 national parks, totalling 65,870 sq km, or 3.81% of the state. NSW has 880, totalling over 70,000 sq km, or 8.7% of its area.
JimmyD says:
Monday, November 29, 2021 at 10:13 pm
nath
I think it was Firefox who you were arguing with.
Don’t be cute. You are a participant in the same-same rhetoric.
_____________
Actually I have been pretty consistent on my same-sameish thing, except of course when it actually is same/same.
max @ #2127 Monday, November 29th, 2021 – 10:17 pm
You can put Robertson in that category.
I’m going to a button-making night on Wednesday for our candidate. We’re actively on the hustings and thinking of any way possible to win this seat!
C@t
I don’t know that this is particularly helpful or fair. At the end of the day, we’re all just here wasting time.
Anyway, good luck in Robertson, I think Labor has a strong chance!
Not much on the box post MediaWatch – in fact nothing at all
So scanned here
To be confronted by the usual names
Boring
In fact as boring as all shit
I repeat, the very fact they live their lives on sites such as this 24/7 going around and around the same subject matter is testament to the lives they most obviously live (or, more correctly, do not live)
Trotters carting their sulky around a trotting track live a more interesting life – at least they are in proximity to a living human being
And if I ever had a thought that I may vote “Green”, what you view on here says “No, not under any circumstances”
Obsessed, one dimensional and with no knowledge of commerce and industry which along with public service drive the Australian economy
Governing is about the full range of factors which contribute to a functioning society
And, yes, that includes transitioning from history over generations
The operative word being “transition”!
So you promote the process and the outcome – and you win elections courtesy of the sell of that process and outcome
People vote for vested interest – such as them receiving a pay packet and having confidence in the continued receipt of that pay packet (and periodic increases!!)
Because everyone has financial commitments
The other critical battleground is business – so business transitioning and taking their staff with them
The “Greens” have most obviously not been educated in the real world of human beings (spending their every waking minute on sites such as this hiding behind the “names” they hide behind
JimmyD @ #2132 Monday, November 29th, 2021 – 10:27 pm
Thanks. 🙂
I think you mistake my point though, or only select half of it for comment, so let me elucidate. I genuinely don’t get why Greens supporters, who care so much about every 0.1% of a vote increase they can point to, spend so much time on this blog criticising Labor and Labor supporters here, when you would think that if they are as passionate as they profess to be then they would be spending every waking hour organising with their like-minded fellows about ways to boost their vote to the levels they dream of getting. That’s what it’s all about after all, as John Howard famously said, ‘It’s all about the arithmetic’, and I just can’t figure out how coming here very day and abusing Labor supporters leads to an improvement in The Greens’ arithmetic. personally, I just think they like abusing Labor people and rubbing their Green-ness in Labor supporters’ faces.
David Gulpilil, Pioneering Indigenous Australian Actor, Dies at 68
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/david-gulpilil-dead-crocodile-dundee-pioneering-indigenous-australian-actor-1235053787/
Statement by Premier Steven Marshal on the death of David Gulpilil Ridjimiraril Dalaithngu
https://twitter.com/TomRichardson/status/1465272725761523721
My Name is Gulpilil earns an ovation for Murray Bridge’s resident film star (article from April)
https://www.murraybridge.news/p/my-name-is-gulpilil-earns-an-ovation
Michael, you DID make shit up. Hamer was not premier until 1972.
Further, your claim re Hamer-Thompson national park building (the number of acres of which I did not dispute but wanted proof – a subtle distinction you would not appreciate) actually shows the liberal national park build was woeful when you consider the substantial contribution under Cain.
There with your same-same claim dies.
Observer,
I have a question for you. As you seem to be a business type, maybe you could come up with a solution to a problem that has bedeviled people on the Left who want to offer workers in the mining industry a transitional path out of the industry into the Renewables industry. That is, a lot of miners can make 2 or 3 times as much mining as they do putting up solar panels say. So my question to you is, how do you extract them away from their high paying mining jobs in order to effect the transition on the ground?
To be fair, nath did concede this point to you.
Leroy @ #2135 Monday, November 29th, 2021 – 10:41 pm
Yes jimmy, mike had to concede that he was making that shit up. By his post at 10.16 pm he seems to be aggrieved at the accusation, one proved and conceded. Go figure.
JimmyD @ #2139 Monday, November 29th, 2021 – 10:45 pm
Reluctantly, I’m sure.
C@tmomma, I know you directed the question to Observer, but I sincerely believe there’s no need to direct coal miners away from mining jobs. NSW is actually blessed with plentiful potential sources of high-value minerals needed for high-tech manufacting, including cobalt, zinc, lithium, copper, and even some potential rare earth sources. Granted, this would require the confirmation of actual deposits, their development, and then involve a major shift of jobs and workers away from current mining areas, but given the strong potential for pumped hydro, renewables, and hydrogen for existing coal-mining regions, the transition would surely be managable.
https://resourcesandgeoscience.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/836954/high-tech_map.pdf
I look at the beautiful country in this article and find it heartbreaking that it would be destroyed for mining.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-29/critical-minerals-hub-slated-for-the-nsw-central-west/100657948
If I were an Aboriginal person and it was my country, I would die a thousand deaths at the thought of it.
JimmyD,
Thanks for the reply. You may be interested in reading this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/20/world/china-congo-cobalt.html
It’s about the darker side of the Renewables revolution. If you can’t access the story I can arrange to share it with you. 🙂
An obviously distressed first witness appearing at the RC into Defence and Veteran Suicide. And I was shocked to learn that some 1200 serving & discharged ADF personnel have taken their own lives over the past 20 years, with this figure thought to be far higher by those working on the ground – Veterans’ associations & the like.
https://inqld.com.au/news/2021/11/29/mother-tells-veterans-suicide-inquiry-her-ill-son-was-labelled-a-malingerer/
DVA has improved to the extent that free mental health treatment is now available to all former members of the ADF, before which it was mainly only veterans – ie, (basically explained) those who’ve rendered eligible war service, such as Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan.
This is the free link to the Congo Cobalt article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/20/world/china-congo-cobalt.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuonUktbfqohlSVUZAybKWsIjolqNhfnJyfk3gXnxK22eTjxLy_hTA5SF_w2FQ5tfUOYJ_mbRQs5dYvhoTeZuz-RbMgs2EAX585HeyNFULnVu7N-9A2lzjsmTA_VioGaxZTPlcbdzz-D19wiLPzmRLa_a0HcrLQdkqII0Ng35nCxVmdqWV7J9ydJ83v8-BphlRjdmZCKCvvXgCRUWK8zRJ1iHqVFwA7cFLGmVyd2M6LsAcBFRCkbFTh584mU-7NBaObAHLR4GqtBHvKqIXfVlXYkFyzk&smid=url-share
I think you can just click on it and it will open for you.
“I just can’t figure out how coming here very day and abusing Labor supporters leads to an improvement in The Greens’ arithmetic.”
***
Damn it Bludgers, you should well and truly know by now that Cat is the only one who’s allowed to spend her life here (actually) abusing people. She may not understand how it works, but by god all those displays of blind devotion to the Labor Party over the years and bitter hateful attacks on the progressive left sure are bringing in the voters for the ALP.
More broadly, it is disappointing to see some others resorting to abuse in response to Labor’s own positions on Adani and Beetaloo. Why do some Labor supporters feel the need to resort to attacking random individuals when their party’s track record is pointed out to them? There definitely is a divide in Labor and frankly it goes beyond policy – some of you are decent people, some are not.
Good article C@t. BHP and Rio also have pretty terrible environmental and worker safety records in their overseas mining interests.
[‘Vaccine rollout:
NSW
92.4% fully vaccinated; 94.5% first dose
National
86.8% fully vaccinated; 92.3% first dose
Of the estimated population aged 16 and over.’] – SMH
They may start providing the booster stats soon, the time after which it can be taken likely to decrease to less than 6 months after the second dose.