The Sydney Morning Herald reports the latest bi-monthly New South Wales state poll from Resolve Strategic suggests the change of Premier has made next to no difference to voting intention, with the Coalition steady on 41%, Labor up one to 31%, the Greens down one to 10% and Shooters Fishers and Farmers steady on 2%. Dominic Perrottet scores a 34-23 lead over Chris Minns in his first result as preferred premier, compared with Gladys Berejiklian’s lead of 48-21 in her final survey.
Resolve Strategic’s state polls combined the results of two monthly surveys, both having been conducted since Perrottet succeeded Berejiklian on October 5. The more recent round was conducted from Wednesday to Sunday while the earlier round was four weeks previous, each having gauged between 500 and 600 respondents. Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald offers sketchy detail on further results from the poll, indicating that Gladys Berejiklian is still held in high regard — more so now indeed than in the final days of her premiership — but that 47% nonetheless feel the Independent Commission Against Corruption “has done important work and should not have its powers reduced”.
Also out overnight was a second Roy Morgan SMS poll in fortnight showing Labor with a crushing lead in Victoria, in this case of 59.5-40.5 on two-party preferred, compared with 58-42 in both the previous Morgan poll and last week’s Newspoll, and 57.3-42.7 at the 2018 election. The primary votes are Labor 45% (up two on the last poll and from 42.9% at the election), the Coalition on 29% (down two and from 35.2% at the election) the Greens on 10.5% (down half and hardly changed from 10.7% at the election) and the United Australia Party on 4% (up one). As Kevin Bonham observes, these primary votes would give Labor an even bigger two-party lead if preference flows from the previous election were applied, of around 61-39.
The poll also credits Daniel Andrews with a 63.5-36.5 approval-disapproval split, compared with 60.5-39.5 a fortnight ago, and finds a 76-24 split in favour of vaccine mandates in the workplace. The poll was conducted yesterday from a sample of 1105.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of these polls. The main thread continues here.
It’s a long way home for NSW Labor – maybe 2027 will be their year.
It’s hard to know how much weight to give to Resolve’s numbers, given they have no track record yet, but their federal numbers certainly suggest their methodology gives worse numbers for Labor than do other more established pollsters. Their numbers today suggest little change from 2019, when the LNP ended up on 52.0% of 2PP. I think Minns is doing a pretty reasonable job as opposition leader, but the LNP would today be quite strong favourites to retain government in 2023. The LNP in NSW seems to be rather closer to the political centre than in other states, and I certainly feel less negative about the NSW version of the LNP than I do about the awful Federal version.
It is still mind puzzling how Newsltd and the liberal party would think Matthew Guy would be able to get near Labor to make it a contest after the same combo lost the election where they predicted a drover’s dog could have beaten Labor
The polling confirms the comment of (small “l”) Liberal acquaintances that the Liberal primary vote has a 2 in front of it from internal polling
No Liberal seat in Victoria is “safe”
A WA outcome awaits
The focus of European Nations, now Germany with its newly minted Coalition, and elsewhere on vaccinations and mandated restrictions on the unvaccinated in the face of further waves will only cement the popularity of the response to this virus of unknown source among thinking people
One question
Given the proliferation of small professional signage on telegraph poles I noted yesterday “Don’t buy the Herald Sun” and “Don’t read the Australian”, is this just signage just across Melbourne’s eastern suburbs?
Or is it more widely spread including in other States?
The public knowledge of this polling will put some pressure on Upper House Independents (looking to hold their seats) and the passage of legislation
Maybe not LvT. I think that Labor will be a chance come 2024. The slew of upcoming by-elections should give some indication of the lie 0f the land for Labor, particularly if they pick up a couple of the Liberal seats that will be exposed. Also, it’s early days, but Perrottet has got a look about him that might frighten the children.
I was polled by roy Morgan other day. It was for federal seats.
No mention of state politics in the poll I did.
Having said that, Roy Morgan follows closely with the Newspoll results.
Vic libs announced funding for an infectious diseases hospital in recent days.
They obviously forgot or pretended not to know, but vic govt had already done so earlier in the year.
They are always a day late and a dollar short.
“but Perrottet has got a look about him that might frighten the children.” he is deeply Catholic, from the conservative right, priased Trump’s election and was endorsed by JW Howard. No need to say more.
NSW ALP MPS were conducting a minor rally at the top of Martin Place yesterday.
Heard a minute of Jo Haylen as I walked past and then quickened my pace when Ron Hoenig took over. Sublime to the ridiculous.
Many Bludgers scoffed when I noted the deep-seated affection for Berejiklian among NSW voters, even among many Labor voters, but this poll (even though I remain sceptical of Resolve until we get to compare it to election results) certainly gives credence to that view.
I certainly don’t think that 2023 is beyond a Labor win in NSW, but much will depend on how Perottet performs over the period until then. By election day, we’ll be looking at a 12-year-old government on its fourth premier, and governments can only defy the political tides for so long. Meanwhile Labor seems to have an energetic and plausible premier-in-waiting in Chris Minns.
Labor needs to win a net 11 seats in 2023 to form a majority government, though with three Greens and a few indies in the LA, 7 or 8 would probably be enough – and let’s not forget that the last two Labor governments (Wran in 1976 & Carr in 1995) initially came to power with tiny majorities before consolidating later.
Meanwhile, in Victoria, 2022 looks like Labor’s to lose, and it’s really hard to see a scenario where the Coalition gets it act together sufficiently to challenge the Andrews government in any meaningful way. It wouldn’t surprise me to see things tighten somewhat from the 2018 result, but another comfortable Labor win looks all but certain, and a WA-style wipe-out can’t be entirely discounted either.
Question for Victorians: is there anyone credible in the Liberal caucus who can replace Guy? I can’t imagine he’s going to make it to the election on these numbers, yet switching back to O’Brien would likely achieve nothing and make the opposition look like even more of a joke than they are now.
If the the Victorian Libs are polling like this after what can only be described as a nightmarish year-and-a-half for both Victoria and the Andrews government, I just can’t imagine what could happen in the next twelve months to put them in a competitive position. They must all just be praying Dan Andrews gets caught banging a goat or something, because it doesn’t seem like much else is going to do it.
The best state ALP can do – Ron Hoenig and Nick Lalich. After 11 years in opposition little wonder their primary vote is 30%.
I reckon Earlwood can draw up more expansive war room reno plans – 2027 at the earliest for him and his mate Minns.
@Asha
Not really. I just went and read through the list again to see if anyone jumped out, but seriously no one’s even heard of most of them, and those who do have a public face are batshit crazy (Staley etc).
So they’ve pretty much got no one beyond Mr Shark Eyes.
The results of the internal review into what went wrong for the Liberal Party in WA are relative in Victoria also (and SA, refer the current Speaker).
Ashasays:
Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 9:46
They must all just be praying Dan Andrews gets caught banging a goat or something, because it doesn’t seem like much else is going to do it.
_____________________
I doubt whether even that would make much of a difference.
If the Libs go down federally early in 2022, then the Libs in Victoria might be in a chance of an ‘improvement’ – not a win – that ain’t gunna happen – but an ‘improvement’ – Victorian Canberra bashing won’t be as easy with a Labor government in Canberra.
I also think that there is a bit of a ‘shy tory’ thing happening in Victoria – there were a lot of very snarky Victorians during the last lockdown.
If the Libs were serious of lifting their game, they need to get John Pessutto into Kew pretty fast, and not wait for him to try and win back Hawthorn.
Ron Hoenig is my local member. When he was boss cocky at the old Botany Council, he was permanently in our faces. Nowadays? Not so much. Never hear from him at all so time’s up, Ron. I’m sure there are some third generation Kenneallys and/or Breretons ready to jump in. It’s not like the LNP will ever win the seat. In fact, they barely show up as it is.
Edit : He WAS my local member. We are in that corner between Heffron and Maroubra that gets redistributed every couple of years. In Maroubra now but who knows? A little birdie just told me that the monolithic Souths Juniors has been re-zoned for residential up to 52m (it’s Randwick Council after all so anything is possible). About 600 units with a little bit of club at the bottom. Lots of punters to move in there over the next couple of years so we may swing back to Heffron. And the LNP will never win Maroubra either.
The long lockdowns will be worth it if we see the Morrison govt fall because of Victoria. Many non-political people I know have loathing for the Liberals after their incessant undermining of the state govt health response here.
Personally, I think i’d weep with joy to see the end of Frydenberg. Which is possible, but not probable.
I was confident that the Victorian Government were in no real danger of losing in 2022 – just given the size of the swing that would be needed for them to lose enough seats – and also that the media’s narrative that Victorians are coming for Dan with baseball bats was a gross exaggeration, because I have really only heard/experienced support for the government and criticism of the opposition & protesters.
However I did expect that there would be a net loss to the government’s popularity compared to 2018, and that 2022 would probably be a much closer election, enough to make 2026 winnable for the Libs.
But these 3 polls all putting Labor between 58 and 59.5 are far above what I expected! And I agree with Asha that if 18 months of lockdown fatigue, an IBAC, protests, criticism of the pandemic legislation and people just generally being sick of seeing the Premier on TV every day haven’t dented their popularity at all, then I can only envision that the next 12 months will only strengthen and consolidate their support even further when the focus shifts away from the pandemic and back to infrastructure (clear ALP edge), social/culture issues (clear ALP edge), competence & talent (clear ALP edge, with a state Liberal Party totally gutted of talent or depth), and who voters trust more to rebuild the state in the wake of a devastating couple of years.
I’m envisioning one of two outcomes, which will depend on who wins the federal election. Kevin Bonham had a fantastic article the other day which really delved into the “federal drag” factor, I highly recommend a read.
The two outcomes I predict are:
– If Labor win the federal election, the Liberals will make up a *tiny* bit of ground in the Victorian state election. “Federal drag” will be minimal with a brand new federal government, and little to complain about yet; and the Vic Libs are not even close to being competitive. So I’d predict a net gain of maybe 4 seats for the Libs, maybe a 2% swing, but a comfortable ALP win nonetheless.
– If the Liberals hold onto power at the federal election, we’re heading to a WA style wipeout. ALP could very easily win Caulfield, Sandringham & Brighton, along with retaining the seats that notionally flipped to the Libs in the redistribution, the margins in the sandbelt will remain in double-digits, Prahran will firm up as an ALP/Green contest, and even seats like Kew could be a toss-up.
I don’t think there’s a “Shy Tory” thing happening in Victoria at the moment. I think the pandemic has actually had the opposite effect, where formerly “Shy Tories” who may have previously felt a little nervous about verbalising their political preference in a state where the majority are so openly pro-ALP/Greens, have probably been empowered by things like the protests, lockdown fatigue, and a very anti-Andrews media narrative that validates their views and gives them some solidarity in vocalising their opposition to the government without having to get into their social/cultural views that they may be more shy about verbalising.
The fact that Australian polls are all automated too, unlike the USA, remove that factor for the most part.
Yeah, nah… not much “shy tory” effect happening in Vic.
The ones who were most snarky in lockdown are in the 40% who will vote/pref Lib anyway.
What we’re actually seeing is the opposite – a “shy Labor” effect where a majority of people actually feel that Andrews did the right thing in making the hard decisions, despite knowing it may well have been political suicide. They just might not be saying it out loud, as the media being so relentlessly anti-Labor in Vic makes it feel like that’s what everything else thinks.
The key thing I think is that almost no one is in the undecided camp. You’re either for Dan (enthusiastically or otherwise) or you’re against him.
@Expat – I agree 100% with everything in your comment above.
I do think the relentless media narrative has really made it feel like everybody is against Dan, but the reality is that it’s not the case at all.
I think in particular, people interstate have a much stronger perception that there is a simmering unrest and anger in Victoria than actual Victorians do, because it fills the headlines but it’s not the lived reality for the vast majority of people, who as you say, acknowledge that he made the difficult decisions that weren’t pleasant for anybody but were necessary.
I think that the low “undecided” result shows how difficult it will be for the Libs to gain any ground here. There isn’t an undecided population to win over. They would have to sway the votes of people who are already decided on Labor, even after the difficult 18 months we have experienced. I can’t see that happening.
[‘Prime Minister Scott Morrison has slammed calls for a stronger federal integrity commission to investigate corruption after launching a fiery defence of former NSW Liberal premier Gladys Berejiklian over what he called a “shameful” attack on her conduct.
In a stunning move that sets up a federal election contest on corruption, Mr Morrison made it clear he would reject pressure for major changes to a draft Commonwealth Integrity Commission and confirmed the new body would not replicate sweeping state powers.
Mr Morrison told Parliament on Thursday he would not change the government proposal to meet demands from Labor because to do so would create a “kangaroo court” like the NSW commission that is investigating the former premier.
Former judges and barristers have dismissed the federal government’s draft proposal as the “weakest watchdog” compared to state commissions, while Labor wants to toughen the plan by allowing public hearings for investigations into politicians.
Mr Morrison told Parliament on Thursday he would not change the government proposal to meet demands from Labor because to do so would create a “kangaroo court” like the NSW commission that is investigating the former premier.’
“Those opposite want to support the sort of show which has seen the most shameful attacks on the former premier of NSW, Gladys Berejiklian,” he said.
“What was done to Gladys Berejiklian, the people of NSW know, was an absolute disgrace.
“And I’m not going to allow that sort of a process, which seeks to publicly humiliate people on matters that have nothing to do with the issues before such as a commission, to see those powers abused and to seek to traduce the integrity of people like Gladys Berejiklian.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-defends-gladys-berejiklian-rejects-calls-for-stronger-corruption-commission-20211125-p59c6v.html
Given his own government is up to its neck in graft, he would say this wouldn’t he. He may gain a some traction in NSW but little elsewhere. This is an unwarranted attack on an independent, quasi-judicial body that can’t rebut what this gutless creep has said about it, and can be seen as an attempt to influence its findings against Berejiklian and her former secret lover.
There are a few odd things when you dig into that Morgan Poll:
– If you look at the metropolitan: regional divide – based on the notional redistribution margins – it would indicate a swing to the ALP of about 5.5% in regional Victoria and no swing or even a tiny swing to the Libs in Melbourne. There may be a swing outside Melbourne – after all they weren’t locked down nearly as much and there were swings against Labor in some Nat seats in 2018 – strange but true.
– When parties are doing well in the polls, the leader approval ratings are way higher than the party rating but in this case the difference is very small. Also, other polls have shown that Victorian are very polarised on Daniel Andrews, almost no undecideds.
– Morgan have thrown the UAP and the Derryn Hinch Party into the mix. The UAP didn’t run last time and the Derryn Hinch Party only got 0.26 of the lower house vote. In 2018, one of the reasons the Libs came so unstuck is that they had preference flows to them. If the 2pp was based on 2018 flows, then some of the flows may be a bit out.
I tried to look but could not find how Morgan do their preferences.
“Dominic Perrottet scores a 34-23 lead over Chris Minns in his first result as preferred premier, compared with Gladys Berejiklian’s lead of 48-21 in her final survey.”…
Interesting…. Will Perrottet’s dismissive attitude to Covid, and instead full focus on the economy first-and-above-all, pay off politically in the end?
Ah Victoria…. Andrews’ anti-Covid-Fascists shield is impenetrable!!!
Whereas that poor little Guy in the Vic Liberal party must be shielded from a continuous barrage of rotten tomatoes and half-digested lobsters….
” When parties are doing well in the polls, the leader approval ratings are way higher than the party rating but in this case the difference is very small.”…
I bet that if you look at the data you may see that the difference decreases the higher the 2PP is….
Expat:
“What we’re actually seeing is the opposite – a “shy Labor” effect where a majority of people actually feel that Andrews did the right thing in making the hard decisions”….
Indeed!… It’s the “Silent Majority”, that the Conservatives always believe it’s on their side…. but they have lost it.
[‘Questions of truth and game-playing underpin Sean Kelly’s excellent biography of Scott Morrison. “We have beaches; we have good weather; we have abundant resources,” Kelly writes. This, of course, is not true for everyone in Australia; but it is certainly true for the only part Morrison has ever cared to represent.
Who then is this avatar of relaxed and comfortable Australia? The little boy with his traumatic sporting trophies (“I stopped these”)? The man, celebrating invasion on January 26, who says: “You don’t pretend your birthday was on a different day”? Or simply the fixer who told Nick Xenophon, “No mate. I’m purely transactional”?
The distinction between Scott Morrison and Bob Hawke is that Hawke was both genuine larrikin and genuine Rhodes Scholar.
Kelly’s portrait is of a man who is all these things: by turns childish, condescending, and disrespectful to a fault. Kelly, a columnist for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, diagnoses Morrison’s “thoughts and prayers” approach to policy as one in which no one makes decisions because Morrison has allowed bureaucratic roles and higher powers to assume responsibility. (Even colonisation is passive, an “inevitable clash of cultures” in which “shared ignorance”, as Kelly notes of Morrison’s worldview, means any blame “lay equally with Indigenous people”.) We are presented with a leader for whom politics is a game of seeking to memorialise your own suffering – everyone else’s be damned.
Except this is what he wants, isn’t it? That’s his game, to want to be wanted: look at him whipping up a storm with Annabel Crabb on TV. Easygoing enough to cook up his “ScoMosas”, but not easygoing enough to review policies that are torturing asylum seekers.
Kelly is a close reader of politics, able to treat Canberra’s vagaries as contact sport: you need to get up close, he seems to say, see how the game’s played. It’s not every day a political journo brings gender theorist Eve Sedgwick and novelist Kazuo Ishiguro into the mix, but that’s what Kelly does, and he does it well.
What this yields is the kind of close reading politics demands; or, as Kelly puts it, marvelling at Morrison’s go-to brushstrokes (curries once a week, a bit of rugby league here and there): “So few details, but such talkative details!” Interestingly, Kelly suggests that many of these details may have been more readily apparent to women, citing the “piercing critiques” of journalists such as Katharine Murphy, Samantha Maiden and Jane Cadzow.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/culture/books/the-emptiness-behind-the-mask-sean-kelly-s-life-of-the-pm-20211122-p59b0x.html
My nephew brought me John Howard’s autobiography. I’ll return the favour and gift him this.
“Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 7:20 am
It’s a long way home for NSW Labor – maybe 2027 will be their year.”…
Last time I heard that was the day before the 2015 Queensland federal election, when a virtually unknown Anna Palaszczuk, leading a miserable group of 7 ALP members of parliament, faced the “mighty” LNP Campbell Newman, leading a government backed by 78 seats….
On the night of the 31 January 2015, the result was:
51.1% ALP, delivering a gain of 37 seats over the 7 they already had…. a win for the ALP!… That was 6 years ago, and they are still there.
The way may be shorter than you think….. 🙂
I’m actually about a quarter of the way through that right now. It’s a surprisingly engaging read given that I more-or-less loathe the author.
As for the Scomo book, I’ll think I’ll wait for the revised version that comes out once he’s (hopefully) turfed out next year.
(Which reminds me of what happened to the Turnbull biography “Born to Rule”, released soon after he become PM. When it was re-released after he was knifed, the title now had a question mark at the end of it.)
Asha:
Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 5:01 pm
My nephew brought me John Howard’s autobiography.
[‘I’m actually about a quarter of the way through that right now. It’s a surprisingly engaging read given that I more-or-less loathe the author.’]
I didn’t get past the ‘Source’ thence moving onto the pics. But I do admire you resolve – 792 pages of it, not including ‘Reflections’, notes & index totalling 80 pp.
Roymorgan 55.5 to 44.5
Richard Wynne. Member for Richmond announced his retirement today.
The Greens are already obnoxiously salivating about winning the seat. To be fair they should have won it years ago but for theit insistence on running a TERF at every election.
To be fair, I’d love to see the Greens run Kathleen Maltzahn again. If she loses, wonderful. If she wins, fine. She’ll be an albatross around their neck.
Now “The Age” headline is that restrictions on the activities of unvaccinated children will do “further” damage to their health and well-being
Simple
Join the over 90% and get vaccinated
If you want a reason to join over 90% of society look at Europe
This continuing undermining of government by undermining vaccination protocols by the Liberal Party and their media is plain juvenile and tiresome
They pander to recalcitrants and disruption by an absolute minority (being god botherer’s of the religious right believing God makes babies – has the pm encouraged his Pentecostals to get vaccinated?)
The confidence society has is the polling figures for both the Victorian State government and the Federal Opposition