Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 32, Greens 11

Resolve Strategic continues to be the odd pollster out in suggesting a tight race on two-party preferred, with the Coalition if anything slightly in front.

The latest monthly Resolve Strategic federal poll for the Age/Herald marks a return to this series’ lean to the Coalition relative to other pollsters, with a two-point increase in their primary vote to 39% and a corresponding drop in Labor’s to 32%. The Greens, One Nation and other parties are steady at 11%, 3% and 5% respectively, with the low collective major party vote reflected in a likewise steady 9% for the pollster’s “independents” measure. The latter is a contentious feature of the poll, as it is unclear how or if the pollster deals with uncertainty as to where independents might run, as nothing is publicly known about how its questionnaire is structured.

Resolve Strategic doesn’t provide two-party preferred numbers, but I estimate a 51-49 break in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred based on 2019 preference flows, reversing the result from last month. Breakdowns for the large states suggest the Coalition leads 53-47 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 last time, and a swing of a bit over 1% in their favour compared with 2019; Labor leads 53-47 in Victoria, little changed on either the last poll or the 2019 election; and the Coalition leads 56-44 in Queensland, compared with 51-49 last time, for a swing to Labor of about 2.5%. Despite the voting intention numbers, the poll finds Scott Morrison has taken a solid hit on his personal ratings, consistent with the finding of other polls over the past month, with his approval rating down seven points to 40% and disapproval up to 49%. Anthony Albanese is respectively up one to 31% and four to 45%, and he has narrowed his deficit on preferred prime minister from to 44-26 to 40-29.

Full results from the poll, which was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606, can be viewed here. Further results from the poll concerning the economic outlook (most expect it to improve) and immigration (most believe there should be less of it than pre-pandemic) can be viewed here. The pollster’s bi-monthly New South Wales state voting intention result will presumably be along this evening.

Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly poll from Essential Research, which now comes with a flash new display, though I personally will miss the PDF that brought it all together in one easily stored file. This release features neither the monthly leadership ratings nor the quarterly dump of voting intention numbers. What it does include is the regular question on COVID-19 response by the federal government, whose good rating is down three to 45% with poor steady on 29%, and the state governments, with New South Wales’ good rating steady on 57%, Victoria’s down six to 50% and Queensland’s down two to 60%.

A question on best party to manage the economy does not follow the usual form for this issue in favouring the Coalition: instead, Labor and Liberal are tied on 34%. Furthermore, Labor leads 40-29 as the better party to “ensure the economy works in the interests of everyday Australians”, and 37-23 as best party to manage household expenses. Perhaps relatedly, fully 62% wanted the government to play a more active role in managing the economy, with only 16% wanting it to be less active and 22% thinking it has it about right. Further questions relate to government help for businesses to recover from the pandemic (respondents overwhelmingly in favour), an emissions target for 2030 (respondents believe it should be more ambitious) and freedom of speech (respondents actually aren’t all that keen on it). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1095.

Finally, Sky News has a curious set of figures from a poll of 4010 respondents conducted way back in September by unheralded outfit Ergo Strategy, described as “News Corp’s final exclusive survey”, though I can’t find any record of anything earlier. No voting intention figures are provided, but we are told how voters for each party in 2019 intend to vote this time. Eleven per cent of Coalition voters said they were switching to Labor compared with 5% vice-versa, suggesting a shift of around 3% in favour of Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,134 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 32, Greens 11”

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  1. sprocket_ @ Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 9:43 pm

    Your post raises something that has puzzled me on and off. When to be sincere and when to be faithful.. My mother expressed to me the importance of being sincere when already acquainted and being faithful when writing to someone to which you have yet to be introduced. Is this approach still followed? Perhaps this is a question for lizzie.

  3. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 9:51 pm

    you would be an expert on ‘creations’ nath.

    And I would have thought you were on Freedom Boy’s mailing list?
    __________
    Look we’ve rubbed shoulders at the Yacht Club but talking to politicians is generally painful. I’ll talk to him about football and money, but not politics.

  6. Cud Chewer @ Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 9:53 pm

    I am less confident. We are dealing with human behaviour after all. I have a friend in charge of a vaccination hub who is rather frustrated by no shows.

  7. When we had the “Divisive Dwarf”, so described by his own Party President, were all States and Territories in ALP hands as the counterbalance?

  8. Cud Chewer says:
    Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 9:02 pm
    Has anyone had experience with those radioactive Iodine pills they use for treating hyperactive thyroid?

    You make it sound so simple… just pop down to the Pharmacy for a few rads … so you are looking at getting a measured dose of an Iodine isotope based on your thyroid’s iodine uptake rate… I’ve had the treatment.. no issues.
    As they will have told you it’s easier & safer to take hormone for being under active than long term medication to suppress an overactive thyroid..

    Don’t worry, you’ll only glow for a short while 😉

  9. Michelle Grattan backing all options…

    ‘ The overwhelming impression the Morrison government has projected this week has been one of chaos, with revolts coming from the right and the left.

    And that’s accurate. But, within the shambles, there has actually been one encouraging sign. We’re seeing a new generation of Liberal moderates belatedly raise their voices.

    When several moderates spoke out in the Coalition party room, airing their reservations about the Religious Discrimination Bill, or aspects of it, it was the most significant indication so far they aren’t willing to be quiescent any longer.

    They may be partly driven by the looming election, but whatever the motive, it was an important moment.
    ————————————————
    Looking towards 2022 and the election, Morrison could hardly be facing a more uncertain environment.

    He is seeking to surf on Australians’ post-lockdown new freedoms. But given what’s happening in Europe, there is no guarantee Australia, especially as the international borders open, might not face a fourth wave of COVID next year, despite very high vaccination levels. If that happened, some restrictions could be reimposed, which would undermine the freedom pitch.

    While the election time isn’t locked in, Morrison’s plan, it seems, is for parliament to return in February, including to try to bed down the religious discrimination legislation. Before a May election there would be a budget, to focus attention on the economy, the government’s strongest ground.

    That strategy has a lot of logic. But such uncertain times mean it is also dangerous to delay, which will be the argument of those who would advocate having the poll in March.’

    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-assertive-liberal-moderates-give-scott-morrison-curry-172617?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton

  12. Sceptic

    Its not me, its my mum. I’m just amused by the fact that I’m supposed to stay at least a metre away. Yeah, its a beta emitter, but betas don’t travel that far in flesh.

    Half life 8 days.. hmm..

  13. Mavis says:
    Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 9:28 pm
    I think three issues are currently on the electorates mind, arguably influencing the latest Morgan poll:

    1. Macron’s reference to Morrison as a liar, not only unprecedented between two friendly nations but also confirming what most already knew;

    2. Dutton putting Sino/Australian relations on a war footing, where cool heads should’ve been requisite; and

    3. The unmitigated & flagrant graft of the Morrison Government, where, although promised in 2018, no
    ICAC worthy of its name has come to pass.

    I think Labor’s well-placed to win the election on these issues alone, and Albanese has played his cards to a tee by, among other things, not making too much out of the initially botched vaccine rollout. I’m very confident of a Labor victory.

    _______________________________________

    I think the most significant one is Macron – not because the average Australian noticed, but because it permitted Labor and commentators not addicted to the drip to be able to use the ‘l’ word.

    The key to an effective election campaign is to connect with voters’ feelings and emotions. They may not be stated and they may not be reflected in opinion polls, but they are (for want of a better word) the zeitgeist. It’s hard to see anything more prominent than Morrison’s fundamental untrustworthiness. And the more he blah, blah, blahs and self-promotes, the more it plays into that feeling abroad in the voters minds.

    All the other issues are important, but because they feed into this broad feelpinion.

  14. Mavis says:
    Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 10:07 pm
    I doubt that even Morrison would risk two elections in the same year, four months apart.

    _______________________________________

    If he’s facing certain defeat (not just the opinions polls but the private qualitative polling) I wouldn’t put it past him.

    Six more months of nest feathering and putting useless right wing toadies in high-paying government positions Trump-style, not to mention letting multi-million dollar contracts that will provide a very comfortable landing pad for him, are very big incentives to hang on to the bitter end, even if it results in a catastrophe for the party he leaves behind. He’s never cared about the Liberals, let alone the national interest, so he’s unlikely to start caring now when his own interests need to be addressed.

  15. Interesting the new German government policy agreement includes strongly supporting the NI border policy and the Good Friday Agreement and recommends penalties on the UK if London retreats from them.

    Good stuff!

  21. He is seeking to surf on Australians’ post-lockdown new freedoms.

    The impression I’m getting is that we are already over ‘our new found freedom’ from lockdown and so I think the time for surfing that wave has passed. In fact, in NSW, from December 15, there will be very few restrictions left in place at all and we certainly won’t be experiencing any elation about it by May next year, that’s for sure:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-prepares-to-end-mask-wearing-qr-codes-and-jab-certificates-in-certain-settings-20211125-p59c7y.html

    There’s certainly going to be very little point for any more Freedumb demonstrations, that’s for sure, and very little that Morrison can therefore surf to victory off there as well.

    So, if not that, what?

  23. TPOF:

    Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 10:12 pm

    [‘I think the most significant one is Macron – not because the average Australian noticed, but because it permitted Labor and commentators not addicted to the drip to be able to use the ‘l’ word.’]

    I stand to be corrected but I think calling another a liar is
    unparliamentary and you’re obliged to withdraw, and in 2019 Albanese cautioned Labor members from using the “L” word. But if one is quoting verbatim from another (in this case, Macron), it seems to be tolerated. Albanese, for instance, slammed Morrison recently for lying about informing him by text about the latter’s Hawaii vacation. So you’re correct, and Macron should be thanked for calling Morrison at a liar, thereby opening the floodgates.

    [‘The key to an effective election campaign is to connect with voters’ feelings and emotions. They may not be stated and they may not be reflected in opinion polls, but they are (for want of a better word) the zeitgeist. It’s hard to see anything more prominent than Morrison’s fundamental untrustworthiness. And the more he blah, blah, blahs and self-promotes, the more it plays into that feeling abroad in the voters minds.’]

    There’s only one other prime minister who I can recall
    whose reputation for untrustworthiness was widely known, if not by the pubic then certainly by his colleagues and opponents and that was McMahon. Morrison’s now in the invidious position where his dishonesty is on show for all to see. And although the electorate is forgiving of the foibles of their leaders, save for the rusted, I don’t think dishonesty is one of them. Every promise he makes from now until the election is open for Labor to say, “He’s lied about this, he’s lied about that, can you really trust anything this man says?”

  25. Katharine Murphy:

    It really is strange how often the prime minister projects his own travails or imagined slights and privations directly on to the people. How Morrison assumes his own outrage or inconvenience is the people’s outrage – like he’s a hologram of the quiet Australians, rather than a separate and distinct material form. A prime minister no less.

    … But I can’t see “woe is us”/“wither our poor reputations” being a cut-through political point when voters are deeply worried about whether or not their politics is clean, and also resent a corrosive culture of one rule for us and another rule for you.

    Why would people think “poor Scott” when the Coalition has so obviously dragged its heels in setting up a federal anti-corruption body with teeth, and when the government is so very obviously resisting the spectre of an integrity body that would hold public hearings?

    In simple terms Morrison – a prime minister battling rolling rebellions inside his own ranks at the close of the parliamentary year – on Thursday responded to adversity by declaring war on external scrutiny he can’t control and doesn’t care for.

    The histrionics only serve to hang a lantern over the inherent conflict of interest associated with parliamentarians deciding the limits of the watchdogs that scrutinise them.

    Archer said it best on Thursday: “There is a place for politics … but on something as important as trust and confidence in elected officials – that is not it.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/25/scott-morrison-roared-like-a-caged-beast-and-lunged-for-a-human-shield-in-the-form-of-gladys-berejiklian

  26. I’m probably a bit late to the party, but . . . I’ll never forget my (same age) cousins’ wedding.

    I’m not even sure of the date, but let’s just call it about 1977. I wore the most beautiful pale-green, figure-hugging, velveteen concoction, and five or six-inch dark green heels. FFS.

    Those were the days my friend . . .

    And you had to be there to see the wedding dance. It was something out of Torvill and Dean. They both wore red tops, red ruffled sleeves, and the rest strictly black. It was something else.

    Yet, not too much later the cracks appeared. My hetero cousin had married a gay chap. He’d married for different purposes.

    Anyway, that marriage didn’t last. [She has since had two children (both fathers being a gay couple).]

    Anyway I’m with C@ and Julia Gillard. I never wanted to get married. And I never did. I know I have talked about Fathers-in Law, Mothers-In-Law, Brothers-in-Law, Sisters-In-Law, etc., but only as short-hand to describe the relationship.

    And my cousin has two beautiful kids.

    We live and learn.

  27. [‘Vaccine rollout:

    NSW

    92.2% fully vaccinated; 94.5% first dose

    National

    86% fully vaccinated; 92% first dose

    Of the estimated population aged 16 and over.’] – SMH

  28. What ever happens in terms of support in the Solomon Islands, Morrison and Dutton get to use our deployment as part of their ‘war footing’ bullshit. The Solomon Islanders will likely loose out in all of this regardless of their geopolitical alignments…. Poor things….

  29. There’s something else I want to talk about.

    When Covid-19 hit our shores, I was totally pre-occupied with my own health. I didn’t take any notice of it. I didn’t know what it meant.

    Yet, last year, an English friend of mine, said that she wasn’t getting vaccinated because . . . “it hadn’t been tested for long enough.”

    The diagnosis of cancer does a funny thing to one. It makes you take a u-turn into family rather than community; it makes you wonder what the F you’ve done all these years.

    So when my English friend said this, I thought I’d research this. Had nothing else to do, except wallow in impending death.

    So, what I found was that SARS-2 had invaded our shores. And that SARS meant SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME. I also found that since 2002 scientists had been working on some sort of recovery. It’s not the Flu.

    When I read that a lot of people think that “it’s just the same as flu” I wonder about their life experiences.

    And I wonder about my friend who refuses a vaccine because “there hasn’t been enough testing.” Except it’s been 20 years, in reality.

  30. Morrison should mind where he stumbles in announcing Australia’s response to the disruptions occurring in the Solomon Islands.
    The most dominant factor is again money or lack of it and the distribution of money.
    The islands are geographically and ethnically divided. The Solomon Island’s PM is quite obviously linked to the north and Bougainville. The island of Malatita and its people are often in dispute with other ethnic groups.
    The Chinese money is more than likely the catalyst for this latest disruption. In the last few years the emphasis has moved from Taiwan to Bejing.
    The lack money and its distribution to different geographic and ethnic groups is always problematic.
    Added to the lack of money generally is the neo colonial structure that many colonial entities have developed.
    Simply, if you’re in government you have the keys to the Treasury.
    The ethnically Chinese dominated trade stores are often the target of looting once the rioting begins.
    Morrison does not have the integrity nor sensitivity to provide help to the Solomon Islands.
    I hope Morrison is receiving good advice.
    The Solomon Islands are adjacent to Bougainville, itself something of a predicament in PNG politics.

  31. Speaking of the UK, they keep updating this article..

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/united-kingdom-covid-cases.html

    Far from peaking, covid is just continuing to burn through the population at an obscene rate.
    Over 40 thousand cases per day. One in 463 people now dead.

    And that’s the official figures. The real number of infections is probably over half of the population. A few more months of this and the graph will go down just like it did in India – increasing fewer people left to infect.

  34. ABC TV News: quoting ScoMo as sending “brave Aussie troops” helping their black brothers in the Solomons.

    Meanwhile, Dutton tells the Press Club we are now a Chinese missile target.

    Khaki election? Perish the thought!

    Thank youse for your service. We run a broad church here says Scotty from Marketing, after “interviewing” Bridget Archer in his private office for an hour.

    Nothing to see here. Please move along. Bridget has simply taken temporary leave of her senses.

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