The latest monthly Resolve Strategic federal poll for the Age/Herald marks a return to this series’ lean to the Coalition relative to other pollsters, with a two-point increase in their primary vote to 39% and a corresponding drop in Labor’s to 32%. The Greens, One Nation and other parties are steady at 11%, 3% and 5% respectively, with the low collective major party vote reflected in a likewise steady 9% for the pollster’s “independents” measure. The latter is a contentious feature of the poll, as it is unclear how or if the pollster deals with uncertainty as to where independents might run, as nothing is publicly known about how its questionnaire is structured.
Resolve Strategic doesn’t provide two-party preferred numbers, but I estimate a 51-49 break in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred based on 2019 preference flows, reversing the result from last month. Breakdowns for the large states suggest the Coalition leads 53-47 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 last time, and a swing of a bit over 1% in their favour compared with 2019; Labor leads 53-47 in Victoria, little changed on either the last poll or the 2019 election; and the Coalition leads 56-44 in Queensland, compared with 51-49 last time, for a swing to Labor of about 2.5%. Despite the voting intention numbers, the poll finds Scott Morrison has taken a solid hit on his personal ratings, consistent with the finding of other polls over the past month, with his approval rating down seven points to 40% and disapproval up to 49%. Anthony Albanese is respectively up one to 31% and four to 45%, and he has narrowed his deficit on preferred prime minister from to 44-26 to 40-29.
Full results from the poll, which was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606, can be viewed here. Further results from the poll concerning the economic outlook (most expect it to improve) and immigration (most believe there should be less of it than pre-pandemic) can be viewed here. The pollster’s bi-monthly New South Wales state voting intention result will presumably be along this evening.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly poll from Essential Research, which now comes with a flash new display, though I personally will miss the PDF that brought it all together in one easily stored file. This release features neither the monthly leadership ratings nor the quarterly dump of voting intention numbers. What it does include is the regular question on COVID-19 response by the federal government, whose good rating is down three to 45% with poor steady on 29%, and the state governments, with New South Wales’ good rating steady on 57%, Victoria’s down six to 50% and Queensland’s down two to 60%.
A question on best party to manage the economy does not follow the usual form for this issue in favouring the Coalition: instead, Labor and Liberal are tied on 34%. Furthermore, Labor leads 40-29 as the better party to “ensure the economy works in the interests of everyday Australians”, and 37-23 as best party to manage household expenses. Perhaps relatedly, fully 62% wanted the government to play a more active role in managing the economy, with only 16% wanting it to be less active and 22% thinking it has it about right. Further questions relate to government help for businesses to recover from the pandemic (respondents overwhelmingly in favour), an emissions target for 2030 (respondents believe it should be more ambitious) and freedom of speech (respondents actually aren’t all that keen on it). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1095.
Finally, Sky News has a curious set of figures from a poll of 4010 respondents conducted way back in September by unheralded outfit Ergo Strategy, described as “News Corp’s final exclusive survey”, though I can’t find any record of anything earlier. No voting intention figures are provided, but we are told how voters for each party in 2019 intend to vote this time. Eleven per cent of Coalition voters said they were switching to Labor compared with 5% vice-versa, suggesting a shift of around 3% in favour of Labor.
I wonder if Morrison knew these poll results before his histrionics today?
Would explain a lot …
This latest poll is an outlier on the upside, like Resolve on the downside.
That is a Federal poll just with state breakdowns isnt it?
The coward didn’t go early in November and here we are.
This one is for you Scummo,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WM7-PYtXtJM
Gareth:
So this poll is shitting pants territory for Morrison. I suspect we will have a weekend with lots of briefings on the Solomon Islands, lots of Generals and no question from the press
Flags too Gareth don’t forget, lots of flags.
Nath:
Yes.
Gareth
His latest trick is to shut down questions. Journos not happy.
Steve,
Fair point. But, it shows a continuing trend which the Libs already know given their performance this week. Lots of rats trying to escape atm.
Methinks it isn’t shitting pants time just yet. Morgan might be explained away. As Steve777 mentioned, Morgan could be countered with Resolve (politically, not psephologically).
Now for Newspoll 🙂
Enthusiasm for a March poll may be waning.
nath says:
Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 8:11 pm
That is a Federal poll just with state breakdowns isnt it
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For the federal election
Why the state Victorian poll 59.5 – 40.5 is different to the federal Victorian version 58-42
Scott @ Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 8:18 pm
Potentially a sign of a fractured Right wing vote as a result of the protests. As previously mentioned, the protests are disturbing for conservatives.
I think Mundo is toast!
I’m also a bit concerned about Morrison being toppled and his successor pulling off another “miracle.” Though if those state breakdowns are at all accurate, I’m not sure switching to Frydenberg or Dutton is going to do much good.
If that 58% 2PP in Victoria is accurate, then the ALP gaining a Senator off the Liberals in Victoria is on the cards.
Griff says:
Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 8:20 pm
Scott @ Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 8:18 pm
Potentially a sign of a fractured Right wing vote as a result of the protests. As previously mentioned, the protests are disturbing for conservatives.
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Good point
The Queensland result is the one that will really have the government pooping themselves. They got 58.4% of the TPP last time and if that is now at down to 49% there is 10 seats that could fall. The sunshine state has been their rock compared any other state.
Although the Victorian result looks impressive, the ALP got 53.1% last time, so it really only puts 4 seats into play (Chisholm, Higgins, Casey and Deakin). Although La Trobe and Flinders are not far off and Kooyong is really heavily being targeted by an anti-Josh movement.
I hear the sound of Queensland Dutts
Far away, Far away…
Just wondering how many Newsltd and other lib/nats propaganda media unit hacks will conveniently leave Australia quickly after the upcoming federal election if Labor is the new government
Tom
But that would mean that Greg Mirabella, husband of the lovely Sophie, would miss out.
Unthinkable.
I wonder how many Liberal politicians will do the same thing.
If you hear one is selling property, make him a low cash offer.
pukka @ Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 8:17 pm
“Enthusiasm for a March poll may be waning.”
A May poll may coincide with a growth phase for COVID (again). Good Luck to the Federal incumbents!
Lizzie @ #1058 Thursday, November 25th, 2021 – 8:16 pm
It always happens when Authoritarians are on the nose. They try and narrow the focus to just them and their message.
No Eric Abetz either, but that was likely before this dumpster fire.
Anna P. has shown previously nervous Queensland souls that it’s okay to vote for the ALP. They won’t cramp your lifestyle. 🙂
Luckily we have ABC News to ask questions to woefully unprepared Liberal surrogates instead 🙂
Douglas and Milko,
If you are still around can I advise you to have a listen to this podcast? It’s a fascinating insight into the recent historical record of the American Evangelical movement. The lady being interviewed has written a book as well that you might be interested in reading. 🙂
https://podcast.thebulwark.com/kristin-du-mez-love-thy-neighbor-is-for-wimps
A question for the Colossal Fossil
If a “Kangaroo Court” wrongly questioning a lady over her choice of partner, why did the lady in question resign from her position as Parliamentary Leader and from the Parliament?
Why did she not call out the “Kangaroo Court” status and then defend her position as an innocent party?
Did the Pentecostal with the glass jaw counsel the lady, given his pronouncements now and his status as the pm of the Nation?
And, given the pronouncements now, is the Pentecostal with the glass jaw in contempt of those proceedings and should he be called to explain himself (noting matters are ongoing both in regard the initial inquiry and the ancillary inquiry to the initial inquiry)
The other question is the integrity of any judicial inquiry or court proceedings?
When, where and why is a “Kangaroo Court” (noting Royal Commissions instructed in regard Rudd, Gillard and Shorten)
Were those inquiries into Rudd and “pink batts”, Gillard and renovations to her home and Shorten and his Union position “Kangaroo Courts”?
There has been a significant swing to the ALP in Queensland with the party now ahead on a two-party preferred basis on 51.5% (up 4.5% points since early November) compared to the LNP on 48.5% (down 4.5% points). This result represents a swing of 9.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
May it be so ……. but Morgan
Griff
Very good article by Raina MacIntyre in The Conversation that I believe everyone here should read. It pretty much sums up everything I’ve been saying here for the past few months.
https://theconversation.com/will-australia-follow-europe-into-a-fourth-covid-wave-boosters-vaccinating-kids-ventilation-and-masks-may-help-us-avoid-it-172296
We (our government) are still acting like vaccines alone will prevent a fourth wave. They won’t. We are still pretending that we can totally relax measures such as mask wearing. We are still ignoring ventilation.
We are also procrastinating on and not heavily promoting the vaccination of primary school children. And one thing the article doesn’t quite pick up on. We are foolishly forcing people to wait 6 months for their booster.
It also says that covid will start to climb in December and not peak till February. But it does not explain why there would be a peak that soon.
Has anyone had experience with those radioactive Iodine pills they use for treating hyperactive thyroid?
Have I got this right? Australia is supporting the political faction in the Solomon Islands that is aligned with mainland China against the faction which supports Taiwan
ajm
That puzzled me too!
Observer @ #1079 Thursday, November 25th, 2021 – 7:56 pm
Berejiklian still has considerable power and influence within the NSW Liberals. Morrison needs all the friends he can get. His outburst is a sign of weakness, not strength
55.5%?
Its a lie.
Cud Chewer @ Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 8:59 pm
You are not Robinson Crusoe here. rhwhombat is of the opinion that we shall be in merdé in the New Year. As am I.
As for the 6 month booster, that is your cause 🙂 I personally would have preferred we maintain an elimination approach and vaccinate other countries. This is the logical strategy.
No, in the Solomons, we are sending AFP agents and troops to protect vital infrastructure (the Airport and embassies mostly).
As part of the peace deal in the Solomon Islands, the local police mostly disarmed and Australia agreed to provide tactical support when need instead. Prior to the peace agreement the police force was heavily armed as was the opposition forces.
ScoMo said they not to take sides in the dispute (and we all know he’d never lie….). I think we are going quickly and will be replaced by a peace keeping force in a few weeks.
It would probably not be good for either side if the city of Honoria was to be burnt to the ground.
Observer @ Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 8:56 pm
Two words: “parliamentary privilege”.
Griff
I’m not against an elimination approach either. But it looks like the world is going to learn the hard way. We may get there eventually.
I think being able to be boosted sooner is going to be more than just my cause when the scientists start to scream loudly that vaccines have already waned enough in 4 months to bring about what you’re seeing in Europe.
I also think that we need to get to the point where you can simply rock up to a chemist and pay for a booster. If we did, I suspect a lot of people would do so in order to get it sooner. Me included.
B.S. Fairman @ #1088 Thursday, November 25th, 2021 – 8:14 pm
I hope you’re right but I’ve got great apprehension about this
I dare say there will be a unscheduled meeting of the South Pacific forum if things get worse and a peace keeping force of Aussie, Kiwi, Fijians and PNGers will created like last time.
The French are probably out this time (thanks ScoMo).
I think three issues are currently on the electorates mind, arguably influencing the latest Morgan poll:
1. Macron’s reference to Morrison as a liar, not only unprecedented between two friendly nations but also confirming what most already knew;
2. Dutton putting Sino/Australian relations on a war footing, where cool heads should’ve been requisite; and
3. The unmitigated & flagrant graft of the Morrison Government, where, although promised in 2018, no
ICAC worthy of its name has come to pass.
I think Labor’s well-placed to win the election on these issues alone, and Albanese has played his cards to a tee by, among other things, not making too much out of the initially botched vaccine rollout. I’m very confident of a Labor victory.
Cud Chewer @ Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 9:18 pm
It is an ethical dilemma. Do we allow private procurement of a scarce vaccine in a pandemic? I know you have previously raised wastage as a rationale for early dosing of a booster. I appreciate that there will be wastage within a system. In this case, multi dose vials (or containers even) is something that the Australian Medication supply system has managed to minimise use until now. However, wastage within a system does not preclude the scarcity of the resource across systems.
Morrison, or simply ‘The Liar’, is likely to cling on to power by his fingernails for as long as he can.
Who knows, a miracle like the Tampa or 9/11 might appear. Of course the national mood may darken the longer it goes, but if you are going to lose anyway, why not stretch it out.
Scomocchio can wait till September 2022 – 3 years from when this Parliament first sat. Yes it means a pesky and expensive half Senate election in May, which will be a referendum on the Shire Liar.
But who cares – probably a good thing to get rid of some of those disloyal LINOs.
Tim Wilson begging for money, and aping his boss, lying about his Independent opponent..
Is that real Sprocket or one of your little ‘creations’?
Wow that Tim Wilson email is bordering on conspiracy theory territory…
“Big Tech climate activists” scary !!!!
If it’s real it’s absolute panic talk. A member for Goldstein does not normally act like that!
you would be an expert on ‘creations’ nath.
And I would have thought you were on Freedom Boy’s mailing list?