Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 32, Greens 11

Resolve Strategic continues to be the odd pollster out in suggesting a tight race on two-party preferred, with the Coalition if anything slightly in front.

The latest monthly Resolve Strategic federal poll for the Age/Herald marks a return to this series’ lean to the Coalition relative to other pollsters, with a two-point increase in their primary vote to 39% and a corresponding drop in Labor’s to 32%. The Greens, One Nation and other parties are steady at 11%, 3% and 5% respectively, with the low collective major party vote reflected in a likewise steady 9% for the pollster’s “independents” measure. The latter is a contentious feature of the poll, as it is unclear how or if the pollster deals with uncertainty as to where independents might run, as nothing is publicly known about how its questionnaire is structured.

Resolve Strategic doesn’t provide two-party preferred numbers, but I estimate a 51-49 break in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred based on 2019 preference flows, reversing the result from last month. Breakdowns for the large states suggest the Coalition leads 53-47 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 last time, and a swing of a bit over 1% in their favour compared with 2019; Labor leads 53-47 in Victoria, little changed on either the last poll or the 2019 election; and the Coalition leads 56-44 in Queensland, compared with 51-49 last time, for a swing to Labor of about 2.5%. Despite the voting intention numbers, the poll finds Scott Morrison has taken a solid hit on his personal ratings, consistent with the finding of other polls over the past month, with his approval rating down seven points to 40% and disapproval up to 49%. Anthony Albanese is respectively up one to 31% and four to 45%, and he has narrowed his deficit on preferred prime minister from to 44-26 to 40-29.

Full results from the poll, which was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606, can be viewed here. Further results from the poll concerning the economic outlook (most expect it to improve) and immigration (most believe there should be less of it than pre-pandemic) can be viewed here. The pollster’s bi-monthly New South Wales state voting intention result will presumably be along this evening.

Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly poll from Essential Research, which now comes with a flash new display, though I personally will miss the PDF that brought it all together in one easily stored file. This release features neither the monthly leadership ratings nor the quarterly dump of voting intention numbers. What it does include is the regular question on COVID-19 response by the federal government, whose good rating is down three to 45% with poor steady on 29%, and the state governments, with New South Wales’ good rating steady on 57%, Victoria’s down six to 50% and Queensland’s down two to 60%.

A question on best party to manage the economy does not follow the usual form for this issue in favouring the Coalition: instead, Labor and Liberal are tied on 34%. Furthermore, Labor leads 40-29 as the better party to “ensure the economy works in the interests of everyday Australians”, and 37-23 as best party to manage household expenses. Perhaps relatedly, fully 62% wanted the government to play a more active role in managing the economy, with only 16% wanting it to be less active and 22% thinking it has it about right. Further questions relate to government help for businesses to recover from the pandemic (respondents overwhelmingly in favour), an emissions target for 2030 (respondents believe it should be more ambitious) and freedom of speech (respondents actually aren’t all that keen on it). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1095.

Finally, Sky News has a curious set of figures from a poll of 4010 respondents conducted way back in September by unheralded outfit Ergo Strategy, described as “News Corp’s final exclusive survey”, though I can’t find any record of anything earlier. No voting intention figures are provided, but we are told how voters for each party in 2019 intend to vote this time. Eleven per cent of Coalition voters said they were switching to Labor compared with 5% vice-versa, suggesting a shift of around 3% in favour of Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,134 thoughts on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 32, Greens 11”

  1. There also seems a tendency for Labor leaders to receive a make over after they’re elected to their leadership, which also seems to be counter productive.

    1. It immediately creates a question as to what is fake and what is real.

    2. It seems to affect the person themselves – after all, they’ve spent decades getting to where they are, honing their image along the way. Suddenly they get told that they’ve been doing everything wrong. This means they come across as hesitant and stilted, which reinforces 1.

    3. It puts them on the back foot. Instead of getting out there and leading, they’re second guessing themselves and spending time on cosmetics (in every sense of the word).

    If you’re a woman who wears Melbourne black, keep doing it. If you’re a man who doesn’t wear designer suits, don’t wear them. If you’re a bit pudgy around the waistline, only worry about it if you’re concerned about your health.

    Conforming to some focus group’s image of what a PM should look like comes at the expense of authenticity.

  2. ‘Gillard v Rudd The gift that keeps on giving.
    Will still be at the forefront of voters minds when they have to front up again in 2022.’

    Nah thats crap. After Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull were toppled. Not only did the Liberals lose a vital weapon against Labor. They also showed themselves up for the complete hypocrites that they are after giving such a hard time about it to Labor in opposition.

  3. TPOFsays:
    Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 5:50 pm
    Asha @ 4.42

    The issue of Julia Gillard’s personal opposition to marriage equality while she was PM is a red herring.

    Two points:

    1. I know of no social issue in my lifetime where community attitudes have changed so rapidly as marriage equality. None. It’s pointless to look at a decade ago on this issue through today’s eyes. It should be a dead issue, except for social historians and observers of historic Parliaments.

    2. There is no way that it could possibly have happened without a free vote for all members of Parliament. Abbott’s Opposition was never going to agree to it. The idea of Labor pursuing a pointless objective, even with the PM’s support, when she had so little political capital left would have been catastrophic for her, her government and probably the movement itself as the Opposition launched itself into a massive attack on ‘identity politics’. You just have to look at the incredible contortions of Turnbull and his party years later to even progress the matter, and then only through the absurd and potentially damaging plebiscite, to know what a difficult task it was.

    All this means that the argument in 2021 about what Julia Gillard and her government should have done in 2012 on this issue, is nothing more than a nasty, vicious attempt to attack her and her government. It is another example of the politics of those to the left of Labor and those to the right to combine to deflect from their own impotence (Greens) or malevolence (Coalition). And nothing at all about marriage equality.

    agreed. Also, it is not just malevolence of LNP, it is the malevolence of people like nath, who were drug addled during that period(by their own admission) and want to rewrite history to destroy ALP.

  4. After noting Observer’s recognition that questions posted here are like sending something to /dev/null (well, not quite, but answers are rarish), I am, for my own reasons, commenting on a few posts that piqued my interest. My own reasons basically being that I finally have a bit of time!

    Any thoughts on this article by Barry Jones via Pearls and Irritations?

    Some of it I agree with, some not so much

    I enjoyed the article, and agree with most of it. Barry Jones tries to be impartial, and appeal to voters from both sides of the left-right divide.

    He says that while Labor no longer seems to be brave, at the moment, the Coalition have been in power for 8 years, and so they are the party that needs to be held to account for the mess we are in. He say he will decide on Labor’s policies once they are in government:

    Both of us are troubled by the failure on courageous polities by both the Coalition parties and the Australian Labor Party (ALP). But the yawning abyss of Australia’s grossly inadequate and mendacious response to climate change and the unprecedented levels of corruption at a federal level are the responsibility of government, not opposition.

    The bit where I think he is wrong is on the idea that Labor needs to take big, courageous reforms to the next election.

    We are living through a transition in society that scares many people: The dominating influence of the internet and social media on our lives, the climate crisis, the crisis in the number of refugees need help and shelter, “post-truth” politics and its relationship to religious fundamentalism and its relation to Fascism: According to Lucy Hamilton (and I agree with her)

    Culture war over religious freedom normalises fascist politics

    Australian conservatives’ obsession with religious freedom is just another US import, and part of a worldwide surge in fascist identity politics.

    It might seem bizarre that in a nation facing challenges regarding our recovery from the pandemic and the climate crisis that the Coalition government is wasting energy on a religious discrimination bill.

    The bill, however, must be understood as another front in the culture war creation of a national identity that is Western chauvinist at heart. …the Coalition continues massing the forces of this “conservative” identity against the feared might of “progress”.

    [Cory] Bernardi’s import of the Christian Libertarian position that people should be free to discriminate is based on decades of surging reactionary religious identity politics. In America, it is forged out of a long tradition built particularly in the Evangelical (Pentecostal) churches where success in business was placed as a key virtue alongside moral purity and freedom from government. A strong masculine role (in business as in the home) was valorised as a counter to the prissy traditional denominations’ version of Christianity.

    From being a fringe force in the Civil Rights era, it has become central to the Republican identity now, fighting back against the ungodly progress of civil rights successes.
    This movement was forged in the Cold War. In the 1990s, “family values” lobby groups from the US united with the reborn churches of the former Soviet Union to battle the threat of the secular, interventionist state. They shared a loathing of totalitarian government. They also shared a sense of panicked pride in a white Christian Western heritage under attack from feminists, the LGBTQI rights movement and the non-white world.

    Having fought back their own godless totalitarian regime, nationalist Orthodox Christians tell their fellow “family values” activists that the Russians have the ability to help the Westerners defeat the new liberal totalitarianism.

    You may think that this creeping Fascism, along with all the other issues the world is facing, would make people more thoughtful, more eager for science and rations thought to be brought to bear on the problems.

    But history tells us, particularly 1920s and 30s Europe and Japan, that many people are frightened of change. Enough will happily vote for a “strongman” to protect them from whatever change they are frightened of.

    Barry Jones (my sadly departed but much loved FiL’s name), names the beast we are dealing with, but we need a thoughtful and longterm response, because the problem has been in the making since Thatcher was elected in 1979, and Reagan in 1980:

    Morrison is a very effective campaigner and cannot be underestimated. He certainly has spooked the opposition even though Newspoll puts Labor’s two-party preferred vote at 53 per cent. Morrison’s appeal incorporates what I call “the five rejections”, his opposition, both implicit and explicit, to:

    * complexity,
    * modernity,
    * multiculturalism,
    * science, and
    * expert opinion.

    Let us never forget how Hitler, with at his best 34% of the German population voting for him, turned Europe into a bloodbath between January 1933 and April 1945. And of course, central and Eastern Europe still suffer from the chimes of “The Winter of the World” as Ken Follett put it so eloquently in naming the middle novel of his trilogy about 20th Century Europe and the US. I thought his books were great, and when I realised that historian Richard Overy consulted on the novels, I knew why.

    So, let is go back to what Morrison is campaigning on:

    * complexity,
    Australian life for him is church, backyard barbies, beers and football. Leaners and Lifters. No possibility that someone may be “down on their luck and in need of a helping hand”. Nope! God looks after those who are “good”, and so poverty is an own goal, caused by the lack of piety of the people who endure it.

    * modernity,

    – Not for him, marriage equality, despite the fact that his electorate voted in favour of it: Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison reveals he is voting ‘no’ in same-sex marriage plebiscite.

    – Scott Morrison abstained from the vote in parliament, despite 62% of his electorate of Cook voting in favour of Marriage Equality.

    -Morison opposes global cooperation to solve global problems:

    In comments that seemed to have an eye to Brexit and Donald Trump’s recent lauding of patriotism over globalism, Morrison made a sharp distinction between positive and negative globalism.

    He said that “Australia does and must always seek to have a responsible and participative international agency in addressing global issues.” This he dubbed this “practical globalism”.

    “The world works best when the character and distinctiveness of independent nations is preserved within a framework of mutual respect. This includes respecting electoral mandates of their constituencies.

    “We should avoid any reflex towards a negative globalism that coercively seeks to impose a mandate from an often ill defined borderless global community. …And worse still, an unaccountable internationalist bureaucracy.

    * multiculturalism,
    Well he was the one who proposed, in cabinet, harnessing and fomenting anti-muslim sentiments to boost the Coalition’ s electoral prospects.
    * science
    – who can forget Hitler’s “Jewish Physics” crusade, that ironically made sure the best physicists (possibly apart from Heisenberg – but that is a discussion for another day) to flee Nazi controlled Europe, and put their substantive services towards the UK and US efforts in fighting the war.
    – Since Tony Abbot gained government in 2013, scientists and universities were put on notice that no criticism of the government would be entertained without retribution.
    – Massive amount of money were diverted from science to a select number of “applied science” projects that benefited the Coalitions mates. Some 75% of funding was ripped from “blue-sky” science, leading to the ARC Discovery Project success rate to fall from 25% to around 10%.
    -Morrison refused to extend Jobkeeper to the public university sector, leading to a loss of around 30% of the workforce, depending on how you count casual academics in the number of job losses.
    – Grants applying for money to investigate climate science have been particularly hard hit since the election of Abbott. We were advised to avoid using phrases like “climate change”, and instead we were asked to substitute phrases like “climate variation”.
    * expert opinion.
    Well, apparently everyone is an expert now – Clive Palmer, George Christiansen, Pauline Hanson, Donald trump ect. Has Morrison ever called one of these weirdos out (see Jewish Physics, above)?

    No, I thought not.

  5. sprocket_ @ #959 Thursday, November 25th, 2021 – 5:51 pm

    Former ABC journalist to contest next election
    Zoe Daniel is set to run for federal parliament as a pro-climate independent in the Melbourne electorate of Goldstein.

    Ah, Andrew Robb’s old seat. The guy who worked the numbers with Nick Minchin to install Tony Abbott the Climate Change shape shifter and do nothing impresario, into power over Malcolm Turnbull when it looked like Turnbull might actually do something. A delicious irony if his old seat falls away from the Liberal Party.

  6. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 6:40 pm


    Does anyone have a better Parliamentary portrait.


  7. Assisted dying bill passes lower house in NSW
    A law to allow terminally ill people to access voluntary assisted dying has been passed by NSW parliament’s lower house, AAP reports.

    Quick get a comment from Fred Nile. I’m sure there’ll be some darn good apocalyptic apoplectic quotable quotes on offer.

  8. Laughtong@5.33 pm

    Good question. Any money is welcome, and no one who relies on government funding for their science dares criticise the Coalition.

    But, in fact, that rule is not absolute, in a weird way. People very embedded with the Liberal party have made “soft” criticisms of the Coalition’s lack of research in science and technology, given that the Coalition are relying in science and technology to solve our climate problems – a right-on-right stoush.

    Interesting that a week later Scotty from Marketing comes up with this new scheme, picking winners. I will wait and see who the winners are, but I reckon I could give you list of who will, and who will not, get the “ministerial discretion funding” announced in this initiative.

    I agree with Tanya Plibersek’s comment on the announcement:

    Labor broadly welcomed the manufacturing initiative but later raised the alarm about ministerial discretion to allocate most of the funding.

  9. 55-year-old man charged with murder of missing Victorian campers

    Victoria Police Assistant Commissioner Bob Hill says a 55-year-old man has been charged over the murder of missing Victorian campers Russell Hill and Carol Clay.

    He will appear in court tomorrow.

    Hill says police are still searching for remains, and are hopeful they will be able to find the deceased and provide ultimate closure for families.

    Hill and Clay were last heard from on 20 March 2020 while camping in the area in the Victorian Alps.

  10. porotisays:
    Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 7:13 pm
    Assisted dying bill passes lower house in NSW
    A law to allow terminally ill people to access voluntary assisted dying has been passed by NSW parliament’s lower house, AAP reports.

    Quick get a comment from Fred Nile. I’m sure there’ll be some darn good apocalyptic apoplectic quotable quotes on offer.

    Didn’t he pass away?

  11. “ministerial discretion funding”

    All spending by our government under this mob is politically driven, and it can’t help but become increasingly so when the Coalition have been setting up everything in similar fashion since they got into power in 2013.

    When are the msm going to wake up and start questioning it? When are they going to start investigating and reporting on how the structures of governance have been modified by the Coalition, and analyse the effect it is having? All of this stuff just passes by silently, or if it is mentioned then it’s commented on as moves in a game, to be approved or disapproved on the basis of political effectiveness, rather than on the basis of effective governance.

  12. The Silver Bodgiesays:
    Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 7:27 pm
    Scott @ #1015 Thursday, November 25th, 2021 – 7:09 pm

    latest federal Morgan poll

    Labor 55.5%

    Lib/nats 44.5%

    Once Morgan poll had Labor with a crushing lead in Victoria, in this case of 59.5-40.5 on two-party preferred, this is almost expected.

    This Morgan poll is really pissing off. How is it so different to Resolve poll.

  13. Steve777says:
    Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 7:18 pm
    Right-wingers want to keep you alive in the womb and when you’re terminally ill. In between, you’re on your own.

    Good point. Although not all right-wingers. Anyway, I never understood that.

  14. Our Kiwi Cousins have had some political action today; It comes as no surprise that the National Party there would get rid of Judith Collins after the election flogging last year, except that it took over a year.
    Ardern has now seen off more leaders of the opposition than any other Kiwi PM despite only have the job for 4 years.

  15. Worked for a wonderful lady this morning, arch tory, and asked me who to vote for in the council elections. Gave her a good oversight, and may have secured a cross party vote. That will be the first time for her. One lib, Paul Ell, one Lab , John Kotlash, and Amanda for Mayor.Oh, as an aside, she intimated to me that Morrison is toast.

  16. frednksays:
    Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 7:37 pm
    Ummm. Labor might be peaking too early, if this keeps going like this Morrison won’t last.

    Maybe it slipped your mind but in September 2007, LNP trailed ALP 42-58 in Newspoll and according to News reports Howard was tapped on the shoulder to resign so that Costello can take over. But Howard refused and challenged for contest, which Costello refused.
    Because there was a lot of regurgitation of RGR leadershit, I wanted to jog people’s memory.
    Imagine what current lot of LNP parliamentarians would have done if Howard had thrown challenge to them.

  17. (Whoops, I’ve been posting on the wrong thread.)


    Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 5:01 pm

    Mavis wrote:

    My nephew brought me John Howard’s autobiography.

    Asha responded:

    [‘I’m actually about a quarter of the way through that right now. It’s a surprisingly engaging read given that I more-or-less loathe the author.’]

    I didn’t get past the ‘Source’ thence moving onto the pics. But I do admire you resolve – 792 pages of it, not including ‘Reflections’, notes & index totalling 80 pp.

  18. Zoe Daniel is an excellent choice for Goldstein.
    Quality journo, who seems to be genuinely apolitical. I couldn’t pick her political leanings after her years on the ABC.
    Can she unseat the execrable Tim Wilson though?

  19. Gareth says:
    Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 7:52 pm

    Once you’re born it’s survival of the fittest, the market will decide.

    As for end of life, there’s money to be made, and umm god.
    I believe a Mr 50 Cent said ‘Get Rich or Die Tryin’.

  20. Morgan has Labor 58-42 federally in Victoria – Josh, Tim and co must be worried. Wipe-out territory. Josh will suddenly become Dan’s new best friend and also become a climate warrior.

  21. Gareth at 7:52 pm

    Once you’re born it’s survival of the fittest, the market will decide.

    They are starting to think ‘neoliberalism’ as it were was wot done in the Neanderthals and all our other rivals. Letting the ‘pinko commie socialists’ aka homo sapiens sneak through on the inside rail…………
    Survival of the friendliest? Why Homo sapiens outlived other humans

    We once shared the planet with at least seven other types of human. Ironically, our success may have been due to our deepest vulnerability: being dependent on others…

  22. frednk:

    Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 7:37 pm

    [‘Ummm. Labor might be peaking too early…’]

    I’m not so sure. A poll like this adds pressure to a beleaguered prime minister, which will make him become even more desperate than today’s performance in QT.

  23. So this poll is shitting pants territory for Morrison. I suspect we will have a weekend with lots of briefings on the Solomon Islands, lots of Generals and no question from the press.

  24. From Morgan:

    The ALP enjoys a large lead in Victoria on 58% (up 3% points since early November) compared to the L-NP on 42% (down 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 4.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

    The ALP has stretched its lead in NSW in line with the national trend over the last two weeks. The ALP is now on 55.5% (up 2% points since early November) compared to the L-NP on 44.5% (up 2% points). This result represents a swing of 7.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

    There has been a significant swing to the ALP in Queensland with the party now ahead on a two-party preferred basis on 51.5% (up 4.5% points since early November) compared to the LNP on 48.5% (down 4.5% points). This result represents a swing of 9.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

    The situation in Western Australia is unchanged on early November with the ALP on 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a massive swing of 9.1% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

    In South Australia the ALP is on 55.5% (down 2% points since early November) well ahead of the L-NP on 44.5% (up 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 4.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP leads in Tasmania with the ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% – however, this represents a swing of 3% points to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election.

    I know state-level polling should be taken with a big grain of salt, but if I was a Lib in a marginal seat, I would be getting pretty fucking worried right now.

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