Morgan: 55.5-44.5 to Labor

Roy Morgan’s fortnightly poll gives the Coalition further cause for alarm, although the headline figure may have been juiced a little by an excessive preference flow to Labor.

The latest fortnightly federal poll from Roy Morgan records Labor’s lead increasing from 54-46 in the previous poll to 55.5-44.5, from primary votes of 35.5% of both the Coalition (down one) and Labor (up one), 12% for the Greens (up half) and 3.5% for One Nation (steady). It has been noted that the two-party result, which is based on respondent-allocated preferences, credits Labor with nearly 70% of all minor party and independent preferences compared with 60% at the 2019 election. This has to some extent been a feature of Morgan’s polling throughout the current term, though never quite to this degree before. Given the size of the non-major party vote in the poll, the effect of such distinctions is considerable, adding around two-and-a-half points to Labor’s two-party result compared with the 2019 election and more than one point compared with the previous poll a fortnight ago.

State breakdowns credit Labor with two-party leads in all six states, a first for the sixteen Morgan polls published this term (the first of which was in July last year). Labor’s two-party results are 55.5% in New South Wales (up two points on last time for a swing of nearly 8%), 58% in Victoria (up three, a swing of about 5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (up four-and-a-half points, a swing of around 10%), 53.5% in Western Australia (steady, a swing of around 9%), 55.5% in South Australia (down two, a swing of around 5%) and 53% from the particularly small sample size in Tasmania (down five, a 3% swing to the Liberals). The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2795.

Also, it’s been pointed out to me that the new Essential Research website includes the voting intention numbers from the last two polls, although it seems the existing policy of unloading these results once a quarter will otherwise be maintained. After excluding the 7% undecided, the latest result is Coalition 39.4%, Labor 38.3%, Greens 10.6%, One Nation 4.3% and United Australia Party 2.1%. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has it at Labor 48, Coalition 45 and undecided 7; applying 2019 preference flows, I make it around 52-48 to Labor.

The display also features a lot of previously unavailable results from early last year, plus results throughout the term for the United Australia Party (whose much-touted recent surge doesn’t amount to much if this pollster is to be believed). This provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which you can peruse here. The changes recorded in the “since previous” column show the effect of the three voting intention polls since Newspoll, which included a relatively strong result for the Coalition from Resolve Strategic, a slightly above par one from Essential Research, and a weak one from Roy Morgan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,161 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5 to Labor”

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  1. Another climate independent targets a blue-ribbon Liberal seat.

    Daniel, who left the ABC in 2020, will stand as an independent for the blue-ribbon Melbourne bayside seat of Goldstein at next year’s federal election.

    “I look at my kids and the friends they bring home and I think what’s life going to look like for you guys if none of us actually do anything?” she told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. “If not us, then who? And if not now, when?”

    “The people of Goldstein know that that’s happening too, and they really want more substantive policy on this,” she said. “It remains a moral issue, but it’s also now an economic issue if we want to continue the prosperity that we’ve had in Australia.”

  2. Morning all. Thanks Confessions, I was interested in that too. If the Liberal vote in Goldstein has fallen as low as rumoured, and it becomes a three cornered contest, Daniel could do quite well as a credible non-aligned independent.

    Climate change is not the only issue there either. Morrison’s pandering to far right extremists with more than a passing resemblance to fascism will go down like a lead balloon in an electorate with a large, well educated Jewish community.

    As for the Morgan poll, I take William’s point about the preference flows, but there is still not much joy in this result for the Coalition primary vote trend.

  3. It may be apt then, with the focus on Climate Change, rightly so, to show you some of the winners of the Environmental Photographer of the Year 2021, announced recently at COP26:

    Michele Lapini / Environmental Photographer of the Year 2021
    A home in Italy is completely surrounded by water due to river flooding and melting snow.

    “Survive for Alive” was taken by Ashraful Islam in 2021 in Noakhali, Bangladesh.

    Flocks of sheep search for grass amongst the cracked soil. Extreme droughts in Bangladesh have created hardships for all living beings.

    “Net-Zero Transition – Photobioreactor” was photographed by Simone Tramonte in Iceland in 2020.

    A photobioreactor at Algalif’s facilities in Reykjanesbaer, Iceland, produces sustainable astaxanthin using clean geothermal energy. Iceland has shifted from fossil fuels to 100% of electricity and heat from renewable sources.

  4. Griff

    I’ve picked up your query from last night and was most amused to realise that the Great Deceiver, Tim Wilson, was using “Yours sincerely” to support his fabrications.

    From my memory, your mother was correct. Letters were signed off formally by officials:
    I remain, Yours faithfully, etc.
    Yours sincerely was more informal.

    Of course there were many variations, which people would have seen in old letters:
    I remain, Your ever loving husband…

    For informal love letters, let your imagination run wild.

  5. Cud Chewer says:
    Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 9:02 pm
    Has anyone had experience with those radioactive Iodine pills they use for treating hyperactive thyroid?


    My mother. She says that she told the specialist at the time that she looked into it and thinks that the dose he proposed to give her is too high. He ignored her and completely destroyed her thyroid. Since that time she’s been on medication (Eltroxin) which for a time caused some very serious side effects, although she’s OK now. She thinks that if she was to be given the right dose she would not have had to take this medication all these years, I have absolutely no idea if she’s right.

  6. I dont care whether Labor’s 2pp is 55% or 52%
    As long as the lib/nats with their corrupt propaganda media units are out of federal government at the upcoming federal election

  7. lizzie @ Friday, November 26, 2021 at 7:24 am

    Good to hear I remembered correctly and thank you for the additional information. Mum didn’t provide advice on love letters 🙂

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Michelle Grattan nicely sums up all of Morrison’s chickens coming home to roost within the Coalition.
    In this evaluation David Crowe writes, “This can be an angry Parliament. Albanese can taste victory and Morrison is desperate to avoid defeat. Their mutual derision radiates from the House of Representatives with a heat that television cannot capture.”
    “The government is running out of lives but it’s not terminal – yet”, declares Phil Coorey.
    The NSW Assisted Dying Bill has passed the lower house. But it is by no means there yet!
    David Crowe tells us that Scott Morrison has escalated a political fight over trust in politics by slamming calls for a stronger federal integrity commission and launching a fierce defence of former NSW Liberal premier Gladys Berejiklian over what he called a “shameful” public inquiry into corruption. Crowe points to several former judges who condemned Morrison’s remarks.
    And Phil Coorey writes that in an outburst that guarantees corruption becomes an election issue, the Prime Minister lashed out after Tasmanian Liberal MP Bridget Archer crossed the floor to try to force the government to act on its promise to establish a commission.
    Scott Morrison roared like a caged beast and lunged for a human shield in the form of Gladys Berejiklian, says Katherine Murphy. She says his histrionics only serve to hang a lantern over the inherent conflict of interest associated with parliamentarians deciding the limits of the watchdogs that scrutinise them.
    Paul Karp and Christopher Knaus report that in a major defeat for the Morrison government, crossbenchers joined Labor and the Greens to disallow rules charities say were designed to silence them
    Stephanie Richards writes about Morrison’s five biggest political headaches from a bruising week.
    The small talk about Albanese and small targets is wrong, opines Bob McMullan.
    Andrew Charlton argues that the border reopening represents a chance to reset our immigration program.
    Michael Pascoe explains how the federal government is still missing on investment. He says we have “the same old same old that demonstrably hasn’t worked – trickle-down talk of lower taxes, smoke-and-mirrors advertising around no real increase in federal infrastructure investment, subsidies for fossil fuel projects.
    One by one, Rachel Clun outlines where Clive Palmer was wrong with his COVID vaccine claims.
    Lisa Visentin reports that Scott Morrison has rebuffed pleas from moderate Liberals to prioritise protections for gay students at faith-based schools alongside the religious freedom bill, as senior Labor frontbencher Penny Wong called for the government to honour both promises at the same time. Morrison confirmed there would be at least a year-long wait after the passage of the religious bill before the government would legislate to protect gay students, re-committing to an expert review into the issue that will take until early 2023.
    Anna Brown, CEO of Equality Australia and Arthur Moses SC, a former president of the Law Council present the case for saying the religious bill winds back hard-fought protections provided by the states. They say all Australians deserve a fair go not just those with the loudest voice.
    And this loud voice, Peter Comensoll, Archbishop of Melbourne, says the religious Discrimination Bill will protect people of faith.
    Jennifer Hewett writes that Morrison is finding that religion and politics DO mix.
    Steph Lentz explains how her “sin” of being gay got her fired from a Christian school this year. She rails at the hypocrisy of the school.
    Visentin summarises Morrison’s introduction of the Religious Discrimination Bill. (I listened to it, and it sounded like a sermon.)
    The SMH editorial warns that freedom of religion is important, of course, but Australia already has a tolerant society, and the bill will create more problems than it solves. It describes the bill as the latest front in the culture wars.
    By opposing Victoria’s Equal Opportunity Bill, Catholic bishops demonstrate the tension in their church’s teaching on discrimination, argues Michael Leahy.
    What are a few outright lies between friends, international leaders and the entire nation when you’re the Prime Minister? Michelle Pini looks at Scott Morrison’s top ten porkies.,15787
    Support for a stronger 2030 emissions target fell to 49 per cent among voters nationwide in a survey conducted last week, down from 57 per cent one month ago and 52 per cent the previous month, reports David Crowe.
    Rex Patrick could be on the hook for $150,000 or more in legal bills over a Federal Court stoush with the Australian Information Commissioner. Ronald Mizen tells us that Senator Patrick is suing the Commissioner for alleged unreasonable delays in dealing with freedom of information (FOI) reviews, citing some matters being unresolved more than 1000 days after referral.
    Melissa Cunningham writes that prominent paediatricians have warned that rules banning unvaccinated 12 to 15 year-olds from public venues or social gatherings risks further harming their mental health.
    Rachel Eddie reports that negotiations on Victoria’s new pandemic bill will gather pace after a high-level meeting between the government and crossbench MPs yesterday and a passionate plea from health unions to resolve the debate.
    Miki Perkins tells us about Zoe Daniel’s tilt as an independent at Tim Wilson’s seat.
    The Morrison government ignored the mandated independent appointment process to choose its own candidate who brings an aggressive pro-Israel agenda to the SBS board, writes Geroge Browning.

    A doctor who recently completed training has anonymously written that distressed doctors don’t bend, so they break. This is a very disturbing exposition.
    According to Andrew Tillett, Australian engineers and designers are seeking legal advice to fight the Defence Department over its failure to pay out a retention bonus worth at least $40,000 despite promising to cover all entitlements after shutting down the French submarine program.
    Declan Brennan says that the Morrison Government mistakes ABC for a department it can control.,15785
    There is a discriminatory, classist struggle in this nation, in which the unemployed, the underemployed and the homeless can be decimated because they are too poor to pay fines. And is particularly so in WA, explains Gerry Georgatos.,15784
    Bloomberg warns that traders betting on the RBA raising interest rates soon might get burned.
    “Arseholes of the Week” nomination goes to Victoria’s anti-lockdown campaigners who are spreading misinformation that people, including children, in indigenous communities in the Northern Territory are being forcibly detained by the defence force and coerced into receiving the COVID-19 vaccines.
    Aboriginal elders, health organisations and frontline workers in the Northern Territory’s Covid outbreak have lashed out at false information about public health measures on social media, with the NT chief minister blaming the misinformation on “tinfoil hat wearing tossers, sitting in their parents’ basements in Florida”.
    And “Idiot of the Week” nomination goes to Lara Trump, the Fox News contributor and wife of Eric Trump, who bizarrely claimed that the rising cost of the Thanksgiving turkey is part of a liberal plot to “chip away” at American traditions.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope is in startling form!

    Andrew Dyson

    Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding

    David Rowe

    Jim Pavlidis

    Alan Moir

    Mark Knight

    Simon Letch

    Peter Broelman

    Mark David

    Glen Le Lievre


    From the US

  9. We must assume that Morrison wrote his own speech on the history of Australian settlement (or perhaps one of his little prayer group helped him). It is concerning that he heads a government that wants to rewrite our history in school texts.

  10. I see William has the latest Essential as 27 Nov to 5 December 2021 in the raw data of Bludgertrack. I knew the Essential mob were ‘creative’ in their research, but future results seems a stretch.

  11. lizzie @ #11 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 7:43 am

    We must assume that Morrison wrote his own speech on the history of Australian settlement (or perhaps one of his little prayer group helped him). It is concerning that he heads a government that wants to rewrite our history in school texts.

    Remember when he also got it wrong about who had circumnavigated Australia?

  12. Thanks BK. I read Grattan’s article and couldn’t help but think that Liberal moderates only really cross the floor and/or speak out against their government when they know their votes won’t count.

    I really don’t get today’s Rowe either.

  13. “The government is running out of lives but it’s not terminal – yet”, declares Phil Coorey.

    All his contributions should be put under the heading:
    ‘ Tales From A Courtier’.

  14. I really don’t get today’s Rowe either.

    The untamed dogs (Rennick, Canavan, Christensen, Antic), are running amok but the invisible ‘Integrity Bill’ is on a tight leash but is going to shit. Dutton is whistling away in the background with his dog ‘Ambition’. Parliament House has a ragged flag atop it which is symbolic of what is going on inside.

    That’s my best interpretation anyway. 🙂

  15. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 10:04 pm

    Michelle Grattan backing all options…

    ‘ The overwhelming impression the Morrison government has projected this week has been one of chaos, with revolts coming from the right and the left.

    And that’s accurate. But, within the shambles, there has actually been one encouraging sign. We’re seeing a new generation of Liberal moderates belatedly raise their voices.

    When several moderates spoke out in the Coalition party room, airing their reservations about the Religious Discrimination Bill, or aspects of it, it was the most significant indication so far they aren’t willing to be quiescent any longer.

    They may be partly driven by the looming election, but whatever the motive, it was an important moment.
    Yeah, nah. The progressives have been totally dominated during the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison years. Howard gutted the Wets and nothing much has changed since.

  16. Morrison: Captain Cook circumnavigated Australia so that he could find a place for english people to practice religious freedom as long as they were not catholics. And that’s no lie.

  17. Griff @ #22 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 8:06 am

    NSW is pulling the ripcord on December 15 for a “COVID-normal future”. Dystopic.

    You might be interested in reading about the latest Variant out of South Africa:

    B.1.1529 is likely to have evolved during a chronic infection of an immunocompromised person, possibly in an untreated HIV/AIDS patient, said Francois Balloux, director of the UCL Genetics Institute. The world’s biggest number of HIV cases has complicated South Africa’s efforts to fight the coronavirus pandemic, as immunocompromised people can harbour the virus for longer, scientists say.

  18. The Moderates, so-called, in the Liberal Party are only being allowed to have a voice now because Scott Morrison is letting them speak out in order to try and save some seats. Morrison the ‘pragmatic’ politician at work again.

  19. One of The Liar’s more memorable utterances was ‘EVs won’t tow your caravan, won’t tow your boat…’, which he compounds with another lie – that he didn’t say it.

    Enter the Rivian… (11,000 pounds is about 5 tonnes)

    ‘The redoubtable Rivian R1T, the first crusher in a coming wave of electric pickup trucks, can soar unscathed over gnarly boulders, hitch an 11,000-pound load and scorch 60 m.p.h. in about 3.5 seconds. The truck brings everything and the kitchen sink, with outdoorsy options such as a rooftop tent and a track-mounted Camp Kitchen, which lets owners whip up a trail-side omelet and wash up afterward. And after its hot-starting initial public offering, Rivian is already valued at nearly $100 billion, more than such behemoths as Ford Motor and General Motors.

    Starting at $68,575, the Rivian becomes the market’s first E.V. to integrate four independent electric motors, each spinning at up to 18,500 r.p.m. That allows all manner of “torque vectoring” tricks, apportioning real-time power to any of four wheels to maximize performance. All while barely making a sound. “Tread lightly” is the mantra of any conscientious off-roader, and the Rivian eliminates a noisy internal combustion engine and its tailpipe spew.

    “You can hear the stream trickling when you come down the trail — and the birds,” said Brian Gase, Rivian’s director of special projects.

  20. Flights from southern Africa will be banned, with six countries placed under England’s red list travel restrictions, after scientists raised the alarm over what is feared to be the worst Covid-19 variant yet identified.

    Whitehall sources said the B.1.1.529 variant, which is feared to be more transmissible and has the potential to evade immunity, posed “a potentially significant threat to the vaccine programme which we have to protect at all costs”.

    Hundreds of people who have recently returned from South Africa, where the variant was detected, and neighbouring countries are expected to be tracked down and offered tests in an effort to avoid the new variant entering the UK

    The variant, which was identified on Tuesday, initially caused concern because it carries an “extremely high number” of mutations meaning that the spike protein looks different from the version that vaccines were designed to target. The latest data, presented by South African scientists on Thursday, revealed that the variant also appears to be more transmissible and is already present in provinces throughout the country.

  21. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, November 26, 2021 at 8:19 am
    That Leak cartoon is disgusting.

    Leak says how dare the drama queen, who is keeping us out of power in Qld, doesn’t respond to cheap shots of Greatest QLD opposition leader.
    Leak is implying that why can’t QLD people can’t see what he sees.

  22. Enter the Rivian…

    Exe. $100k in Aus?

    There are two Chinese EV utes due in Australia soon. The LDV Maxus looks nearest. And not long after hopefully the BYD.

  23. In this government, no Minister is ever held to account.

    Brisbane company worth just $8 when awarded $385m Nauru offshore processing contract
    Since 2017 the contract – now worth $1.6bn – has been amended seven times without competitive tender.

    Shadow home affairs minister Kristina Keneally said the Morrison government and the department of home affairs had questions to answer over its handling of the Canstruct contract.

    A Brisbane construction company had $8 in assets and had not commenced trading, when it was awarded a government contract – ultimately worth $1.6bn – to run Australia’s offshore processing on Nauru.

    The contract was awarded after the government ordered a “financial strength assessment” that was actually done on a different company.

  24. Grattan really misses the point about the so-called liberal moderates.
    They haven’t found their voice, they have no voice in the government.
    Never had, never will.
    They’re just feebly signalling to their electorates, “see, at least we tried”, as they try to avoid the independent voices tsunami.
    Plus they have all voted for every single piece of legislation this govt has proposed.

  25. Are we surprising that Morrison went on a rant yesterday about ICAC.

    What was astounding was his leech like adulation of Berejiklian. Trying to steal her gloss and use it as a distraction. Especially considering what he was supposed to have done to her in August.

    I can see Morrison on the campaign trail in NSW – flanked by Jen and Gladys.

  26. I try not to listen to rumours about family of politicians. So I dont know what you are talking about.

    Rumours of Morrison being a bully and undermining Berejiklian back in August is a different matter.

  27. Simon Katich

    Rumours are just that. Not worth entertaining. I just found it to be funny when you referred to Morrison being flanked by Jen and Gladys.
    A funny image flashed through my mind

  28. PhoenixRed

    Thursday tests are always high. Fact we have been open fully now for a while is not surprising that numbers are still tracking high.
    According to the Burnett institute modelling, we expected to be tracking much higher than we currently are.

  29. Griff @ #31 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 8:37 am

    C@tmomma @ Friday, November 26, 2021 at 8:15 am

    Yes I have been following COVID-19 variants. I find this site useful:

    Here is commentary a couple of days ago specific to this variant of interest:

    Thank you for this. I’ll read them later. Just about to head out to town now. 🙂

    I like to keep up with the latest Variant developments.

  30. Victoria says: Friday, November 26, 2021 at 9:05 am


    Thursday tests are always high. Fact we have been open fully now for a while is not surprising that numbers are still tracking high.
    According to the Burnett institute modelling, we expected to be tracking much higher than we currently are.


    Its kinda sad Victoria that we have at times got the numbers right down …… and then its like taking a foot off the brake – and off it goes up again. I often wonder if we will ever see the end to all this ….

  31. PhoenixRed

    With the ongoing protests that have been occurring regularly for months has not helped one iota.
    Taking into account that these people are anti vax, don’t believe the virus is real. The virus always finds its way to the hosts with the least resistance.

  32. Victoria records 1,362 new COVID-19 cases and seven deaths

    There are now 10,887 active cases of the virus in Victoria, and 494 people have died during the state’s current Delta outbreak.

    There are 308 people in hospital with COVID-19, of whom 46 are in intensive care and 26 are on a ventilator.

    The health department said a further 53 people were in intensive care but their COVID-19 infections were no longer considered active.

    Victoria yesterday reached 90 per cent double dose vaccination for those aged 12 and over, abolishing the traffic light border scheme and all domestic border permits, regardless of vaccination status.

  33. Okay, just read it and it seems the Botswana/South Africa Variant to not be stable and not readily transmissible. So far.

    “For the time being, it should be closely monitored and analysed, but there is no reason to get overly concerned, unless it starts going up in frequency in the near future.”

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