Yesterday’s tabling of a proposed parliamentary schedule for new year resulted in another spin of the election date speculation wheel, the consensus being that it will be held on either May 7 and 14. The government has, as they say, pencilled in March 29 as the date for the budget, although “sources close to Mr Morrison” tell The Australian he may make use of his eraser if his polling improves over summer, such that March is “still a live option” for the election. That would presumably lead to South Australian Premier Steven Marshall exercising his option to delay the March 19 state election by up to three weeks in the event of a March federal election, a matter Scott Morrison denies having discussed with him.
Other election news, federal and state:
• Scott Morrison told the Liberal federal executive he was considering asking it to exercise powers to override state divisions in preselections to impose his preferred candidates in key New South Wales seats, including state MPs Andrew Constance in Gilmore and Melanie Gibbons in Hughes (Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports state Police Minister David Elliott is resisting entreaties to run in Greenway). Such a move would be “seen as a declaration of war by key members of the NSW state division”, specifically its conservatives and moderates.
• Sarah Martin of The Guardian reports Natalie Baini, who until recently was a cultural diversity manager at the Australian Football League, has withdrawn her preselection challenge against Liberal MP Fiona Martin in Reid and will instead run as an independent, complaining the party had failed to act on her complaint against “inappropriate conduct of some senior members of the party and the government”.
• Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor will yield to the insistence of local party branches and field a candidate in John Barilaro’s seat of Monaro, despite Labor leader Chris Minns rating it an “impossible task”.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reported last week on “intense speculation” that a Victorian state by-election could be on the cards in Kew, whose embattled Liberal member, Tim Smith, had been “linked with potential job prospects in Britain, where he once lived”. Sunday Herald Sun columnist “Backroom Baz” rates that Smith will linger until the election if the preselection goes to his ally David Davis, the Shadow Treasurer and Opposition Leader in the Legislative Council, but would be disposed to inflict the by-election on the party if it instead goes to Jess Wilson, a former staffer to Josh Frydenberg and current policy director at the Business Council of Australia. Also in the field are Lucas Moon, former soldier and commercial manager of construction company Winslow, who has been endorsed by Tim Costello; Monica Clark, a family lawyer; Felicity Sinfield, a police officer and Boroondara councillor; and Michael Sabljak, a former electorate officer to federal MP Michael Sukkar.
In USA President Biden released 60 million barrels of oil from the US Strategic Reserve a few days ago to put downward pressure on oil prices.
https://newrepublic.com/article/164528/deal-inflation-get-off-fossil-fuels
Morrison claims we have a strategic reserve in USA too. How come he hasn’t released any? Does the reserve exist?
Greensborough Growler @ #598 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 7:24 am
Surely it will be the Greens. 🙂
Simon Katich says:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 10:15 am
The coalition almost always win. Perhaps this has escaped your notice. Labor has a win ratio from Opposition since WW2 of 3/19. They will likely make 3/20 next year. Notwithstanding the current polls, the LNP are start-up favourites to win in 2022. If Labor win it will be in spite of the Greens, not because of them. The Greens will do their best to make sure this does not happen. They utterly despise Labor, campaign against them 24/7 and will collude with the LNP to destroy Labor should they pull off a win.
Since 1970 – 3/10 for both if my very quick review is correct.
Australia’s political culture has a longer history than 1970+. We have 120 years of accumulated electoral history since Federation. Labor has only very rarely won from Opposition since then. In the era since the split in 1917, Labor has won just 4 times from Opposition. We are in Opposition now. The Reactionaries and their off-siders – their interns, their T/As, the splitters, the Neo-Groupers, The Greens – intend to keep it that way.
Throughout the 20th century and up until the election of Rudd, the Labor-positive plurality ranked in the mid 40s most of the time. Even so, Labor were only rarely successful. The plurality is in the low 30s now. It has been successfully plundered, split, smashed, raided, denuded, whittled, lured away. We really are basically fucked now. If Labor win in 2022 – the odds do not favour them – then the Reactionary-controlled Senate will do their best to destroy the new Government. This is the record. This is immutable. The Greens will be fully on board with that destruction. They will be its co-authors. This is the state of play in Australia.
Barney,
You must live in a strange place if the sky is Green!
Woofhead and Boofhead.
Greensborough Growler @ #602 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 7:31 am
Well the wet season is starting up, so it’s definitely not blue. 🙂
Ven
The discussion on the failure of MPs as managers was not pointed at any particular MP, but was a general assessment of the behaviour allowed in the House as a result of the Jenkins Report.
[‘House of horrors: The shameful workplace where one in three are sexually harassed.
A man’s world. The most sexist workplace. Somewhere women felt lucky if they were not sexually harassed. That’s the damning picture painted of federal parliament.
A report has uncovered a shocking workplace culture at Parliament House in Canberra.
One-third of people working in Parliament House and federal politicians’ offices reported being sexually harassed on the job. But only 11 per cent reported it.
About a quarter of people said they were harassed by a parliamentarian.
“It is a man’s world and you are reminded of it every day,” one person told Sex Discrimination Commissioner Kate Jenkins’ review of parliament’s workplace culture.
“Thanks to the looks up and down you get, to the representation in the parliamentary chambers, to the preferential treatment politicians give senior male journalists.”
Federal parliament has been asked to provide a public statement acknowledging the harm caused by bullying, sexual harassment and assault as well as the lack of action taken in the past to stop it.
“I do often describe Parliament House as the most sexist place I’ve worked,” someone else told the report, titled Set the Standard.’]
https://inqld.com.au/politics/2021/11/30/house-of-horrors-the-shameful-workplace-where-one-in-three-are-sexually-harassed/
If there’s one workplace in the land, it’s the Federal parliament that should set standards but it’s arguably the worst. The culture won’t change until there’s equal gender
representation, both in the numbers in the House and Senate, and in powerful positions. And all parliamentarians should be breathalysed before entering the House & the Chamber.
This may or may not work for Morrison. An awful lot of Australians are users of social media and may resent the implication that by attacking Facebook etc, Morrison is trying to tell us what we can and cannot do.
Bloos @ #601 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 10:30 am
When Labor wake next year to the realisation that they can’t beat a trainwreck rolling clustershite government like the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison outfit there’s going to be more than another review required.
And no matter what anyone says to the contrary, the difference between winning and losing for Labor is always LEADERSHIP.
Right in character.
I heard Albo refer to Medicare in an interview the other day without including a reminder that a Labor government created it.
FAIL.
Albo is a nice boy but must try harder if he wants to move up next year.
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 7:26 am
Thanks as always BK. This para from the David Crowe piece caught my eye..
‘While the most recent Resolve Political Monitor in The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age found Labor’s primary vote was 32 per cent, slightly down from 33.3 per cent at the last election, the party’s internal polling suggests it is doing much better.’
After reading yesterday that the former CrosbyTextor exec who runs Resolve also trousered $1.5m in Morrison government market research fees this year (via Ronnie Salt), the 9fax reliance on that pollster is under a cloud.
Maybe Resolve are right and major party pluralities in Federal contests are sitting at around 1/3 for both sides, give-or-take. Crosby-Textor have always been quite good at measuring these things and at identifying how to talk to the LNP-susceptible. Consider their record.
In the absence of an election and the related campaigns, 1/3 or so makes intuitive sense. Once the election is called and voters begin to focus on the choices, there will be some movement in voter-intentions.
Voters are really mostly disengaged most of the time from politics. They really cannot stand it. Voters are repelled by what they see. Who can blame them? They will give their attention to the parties/choices/policies when the time comes.
The most important thing for Labor will be to make sure that it’s seen to be an effective, safe alternative to the LNP and that it’s not a Trojan Horse for the Greens.
Labor’s opponents on both flanks will do their best to make sure that they are cast as neither effective nor safe, and to depict them as Lite-Green. If they succeed in these campaigns, Labor will certainly lose again.
Surely noone could be accusing Albo of being “too nice” after the last couple of months.
Bloos @ #602 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 9:30 am
You’re picking a weird metric. It’s probably the case that “wins from Opposition” are very rare for both sides because single-term governments are also rare.
Most of the time the incumbent is returned, and that cuts both ways. Once Labor gets in the advantage runs in their favor too.
citizen says:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 10:46 am
This may or may not work for Morrison. An awful lot of Australians are users of social media and may resent the implication that by attacking Facebook etc, Morrison is trying to tell us what we can and cannot do.
——————
Agreed. Who knows what the Liberals’ polling is telling them, but my gut feel is that this isn’t something that’s likely to get the punters out in the streets all riled up to vote for Scomo. Maybe it’s about signalling obeisance to some Liberal donor/lobbyist.
✔
Green Sky?
citizen @ #548 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 10:46 am
Yes, but what will his actions mean in practice as it plays out in the real world?
Asha @ #553 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 10:58 am
And if they are, then they’re boofheads!
I remember seeing a green tinge in clouds which soon became a monster storm near Brisbane during a mystery flight birthday experience – March 1997
If Albo walked on water, mundo would complain that he should have ran.
Greensborough Growler @ #598 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 9:54 am
Correct. If one must compare electoral records, it would be better to compare total elections won, not just winning government from opposition which, as you correctly alluded to, can only possibly be one more or less (or equal) to the other side.
Also, at the risk of looking like shifting the goalposts, I prefer to measure electoral records in terms of the last 50 years, not since WWII, as that was over 75 years ago, and many things have radically changed in the country since. Fifty years, while still a long time more correctly encapsulates “modern” political history and shifts with the times IMO.
I am just glad that, in the darkest moments of my life, I didn’t have Mundo around as support.
“This may or may not work for Morrison. An awful lot of Australians are users of social media and may resent the implication that by attacking Facebook etc, Morrison is trying to tell us what we can and cannot do.”
***
Yeah I don’t see that going too well for the Coalition hey. Many of their more nutty far right supporters may see it as an attack on their beloved “free speech” (hate speech more like it) and it might push them further towards the likes of PHON and UAP.
Okay, so to my eyes, synthesising the themes the reporters say Scott Morrison is shaping up to run on at the election, religion and leadership qualities, it’s looking like another presidential campaign from him. The Religious Leader. Ugh!
Also one who doesn’t mind in the least wielding his power to pry into the lives of his citizens and to expose them to penury via defamation actions he will legislate to allow the privileged few who can afford it, to take against their anonymous critics. At the very least to achieve the result of exposing them to shame and ridicule in the public square.
This, of course, will have a chilling effect on commentary and criticism, which is exactly how the Prime Menacing Wallpaper will want things to pan out.
a r says:
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 11:00 am
Bloos @ #602 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 9:30 am
Labor has only very rarely won from Opposition since then.
You’re picking a weird metric.
It’s not weird. It’s rooted in historical reality. The guts of electoral politics is winning seats. This can be very difficult to do. Usually Labor commence some distance behind the LNP. They have to take seats from the reactionaries. This is the mathematical reality. The two sides do not start from the same point on the track…and it is a race.
Labor are usually in Opposition. They are in Opposition now. They start from behind in the race. The odds – historically speaking – are against them catching up and over-taking the LNP. This is the real life situation. There is a market leader….a default winner. That default leader is the LNP and has almost always since 1917 been the default leader.
Labor have been able to win from Opposition and go on to provide successful multi-term government just once since WW1. This is the real record. It is a hugely important conditioning factor in Australian political culture, no matter the extraordinary achievements of Curtin/Chifley and Gough.
Labor’s enemies win most of the time. The odds are they will win again in 2022.
Kakuru @ #561 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 11:16 am
mundo is a boofhead. Go on, mundo, over there. Sit down.
“Win from opposition” is just a stat touted for people to have an excuse for pessimism.
Incumbency, even for pretty shit governments, state and Federal, is hard to crack. While it is difficult, it does eventually happen. Labor tends to be brought down by its own internal bullshit and the Libs get too comfortable in office and either become useless or starts to overreach.
But history isn’t necessary going to be your best metric … the political dynamic is a lot more fractured.
A fourth term is a rarity – if you want historical dings against the Government, there’s one. Particularly for a Government at high-water marks in many states with a tiny majority, with no room to go backwards anywhere.
My argument all along is 2019 was a tightrope very carefully trod by Morrison, ably assisted by their opposition. 2022 is MUCH harder than 2019 – if they pull it off, which of course could happen (but don’t expect me to start looking for reasons to be glum), it will be a far more remarkable outcome than 2019.
Asha @ #589 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 10:58 am
I can.
Asha @ #612 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 10:28 am
Albo should not hesitate to call Morrison a c-word and then should get into a fist fight with him next time they cross paths. He should also publicly demand Morrison be tried for treason and, in every conversation he is involved in, he should go on long-winded rants about how much Morrison is the devil and made everyone’s lives more miserable. Long, multipart meandering Twitter threads also will help with this messaging. Show some mongrel. *Insert misunderstanding of how Abbott won in 2013 and complete mythologising of Keating*
“Most of the time the incumbent is returned, and that cuts both ways. Once Labor gets in the advantage runs in their favor too.”
***
If the Coalition somehow manages to pull off a win again this time (which I don’t think they will for the record) then I can’t see them winning another term after it. The “it’s time factor” will surely have come into play by then. I think it probably would have already if it wasn’t for all the leadership changes, as well as the massive distraction and departure from normality that the pandemic has brought.
jt1983 @ #627 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 10:54 am
No the point is it’s useless because you can only win from opposition when you’re in opposition. If Labor had been in power continuously for the last four decades, they’d only have won once from opposition in that time. Nobody would seriously call that a bad run though.
@Wat – well, quite.
Albo has a message for mundo…
“Agreed. Who knows what the Liberals’ polling is telling them, but my gut feel is that this isn’t something that’s likely to get the punters out in the streets all riled up to vote for Scomo. Maybe it’s about signalling obeisance to some Liberal donor/lobbyist.”
——————
I suspect its just typical conservative culture war gas-lighting. He will presumably try and connect it to the narrative that people’s freedom of speech is under siege by left wing trolls. Its liberal party bread and butter.
Thats how they’ll sell it. Of course the real reason for this policy is to give rich privileged white guys even more ability to sue critics for defamation.
The latest National accounts. The economy has contracted by 1.9% last quarter.
https://twitter.com/latingle/status/1465841951169675265/photo/1
Mundo, Albo could walk into parliament with an rifle and start firing indiscriminately into the government benches and you would still think he’s being roo nice.
Watson SC addressing NPC at lunch.
If Albo walked on water, mundo would complain that he should have ran.
————-
Back in the day there was a famous meme circulated by Joe Bjelke-Petersen supporters – aggrieved by the perceived bias against him by the media. In it was a picture of Joe walking on water, with the headline “Joe can’t swim!”
ar:
It’s innumerate rubbish is what it is.
In a two-party system and the absent of changes of Government without election (a la the disgrace of 1975), the “wins from Opposition” figure will always be at most one different between the two sides.
Does the the nutty Catherine Cummings and the Vic Libs really think filibustering in the Vic upper house will win them votes from the centre ..?
You’d have to think they’re purely just trying to preserve the extreme nutter base only at this point. 😆
Australia’s economy shrank 1.9 per cent in the September quarter, but was still 3.9 per cent bigger than it was at the same point in 2020, after the initial COVID-19 lockdowns.
The result was much better than most economists had feared, with forecasts centring on a 2.7 per cent quarterly decline as large parts of the economy were shut in New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT for most or all of the September quarter.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-01/gdp-economic-growth-september-quarter-2021/100664566
Oh no! Sad-Sack’s at it again.
I don’t know what’s worse: Nath’s Shorten Obsession, LVT’s nasty little preoccupation with C@t’s health, P1’s ever-fluctuating voting whimsies, or Briefly’s manic depressive “We’re Fucked” epistles that read like political suicide notes.
Yeah, yeah, I know… my stupid Bubsy yarns. But at least Bubsy stories are a bit lighthearted and about hope for the future. Briefly has none: no humour, no hope. I doubt whether Labor would let anyone with his ability to bring down the mood of a room to sub-basement level anywhere near a polling booth, or even staking out corflutes in the dead of night. Instant downer.
I know he thinks he’s the only wise and realistic poster here, and indeed once he was mildly optimistic, before the dreaded 2019 debacle. We even heard a few door-knocking stories, and tales about how The Message was getting positive reactions. Well, many of us fell flat on our faces over that kind of thing.
Labor supporters’ confidences and expectations took a jolt in 2019, a big one. The loss was a big shock as the hitherto reliable polling industry took a dive. But you have to have SOME hope. To stay permanently depressed, to continually find negatives proving We’re All Doomed gets you nowhere. You don’t even want to get out of bed in that state.
We all have our faults and obsessions. We all say ill-considered things. Or think that what we find interesting might interest others. But to be continually on a bad news binge in the end just pushes people away from you.
Simon Katich:
3/11 for Labor (wins in 1972, 1983, 2007 and losses in 1975, 1977, 1980, 1998, 2001, 2004, 2016 and 2019).
2/8 for Coalition (wins in 1996 and 2013, and losses in 1974, 1984, 1987, 1990, 1993 and 2010).
Almost exactly equal in % terms.
Rex Douglas
After the Bill is passed, will the protesters retire? I think they’ll just google a new angle to protest about. It gives their tiny brains something to work on.
I rather like Amy’s report that among the gifts in the trolley (trolling?) that Albanese wheeled into the PM’s office for the Wishing Tree was a toy submarine and a model for making the Eiffel Tower.
Edit: rephrased item.
I listened to an RN program recently where the subject was about positivity and negativity. The finding was that positive people live longer as they’re more likely to find a solution to whatever problem presents. Negative people, on the other
hand, look for reasons to support their negativity.
Asha @ #614 Wednesday, December 1st, 2021 – 10:58 am
Albanese’s instinctive stand up to the bully boy yesterday will resonate with many voters purely because it was authentic and it conveyed strength.
Contrast it to Morrisons continual weak looking avoidance of responsibility on so many critical issues.
B L
Very much in tune with the week’s politics! I wonder what Morrison donated.