Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10

Another poll finds Scott Morrison’s personal ratings on a downward trajectory, but still very little in it on voting intention.

The Age/Herald yesterday brought us the third result in its monthly federal polling series from Resolve Strategic, which had the Coalition on 40% (up one), Labor on 36% (up one), the Greens on 10% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (up one). This series doesn’t provide a published two-party result, but based on the last election this suggests a Labor lead of 50.5-49.5, down from around 51-49 last time. Scott Morrison has taken a hit on his personal ratings, down five on approval to 48% and up two on disapproval to 40%, while Anthony Albanese is down a point on both, to 31% and 44% respectively. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 46-23, unchanged in magnitude from 48-25 last time.

Full results from the poll, which was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1600, can be viewed here. This includes the poll’s usual results for leader attributes and best party to handle various issues, as well as breakdowns for all major questions by region and gender. After last month’s poll unusually found Labor doing better in New South Wales than Victoria, this result reverts to normal. The pollster has also been up and down in its gender breakdowns, having found Labor doing better among women in the second poll a month ago, but little gender gap in the first poll and the third.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,521 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10”

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  1. lizzie

    According to Australia Talks more than half of us accept that politicians are corrupt. Is that why people continue to vote for them because it has become accepted ss normal?

    Yep, that’s why same same is so dangerous. You say to people “the Coalition are corrupt” and they say “Labor would be just the same”, no proof required. It’s basically an excuse to allow the Coalition to get away with whatever they want.

  2. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 7:27 pm

    Biden did what this is a country who has more effective spies than USA.

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 7:27 pm

    There is war happening with factions and who ever wins that war they will focus on USA.

    This is too funny believing in too much crap you guys

  3. D N

    I’m afraid you’re right. The same-same theme used for attack has been very successful and Labor doesn’t seem able to fight it.

  4. Acting Premier James Merlino has made some of his strongest comments to date criticising the Commonwealth’s vaccine provision to states.

    “The Commonwealth made it very clear to all states and territories at the last National Cabinet that we don’t need to make provisions for second doses because they will retain them,” Mr Merlino said on Wednesday afternoon.

    “If they can’t do that, then they shouldn’t be publicly scolding states for holding doses back.

    “Victorians have turned out in their thousands to get vaccinated, but we can’t maintain this rate without certainty about supply from the Commonwealth.” at 17:56

  5. Bert:

    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 5:58 pm

    [‘If and I repeat if as appears to me he’s on the brink of a breakdown I hope he gets all the support he needs from veteran’s organizations because he’ll get bugger all from the department of veterans affairs.’]

    Roberts-Smith may well be suffering PTSD and I have empathy for him if he is. However, he doesn’t seem on the face of it to be too troubled. There have been, for example, pics of him in the media in what appear to be fairly intimate relationships, pics of him working out.
    There are also allegations that he hired a private eye to spy on a former girlfriend and to obtain the addresses of those former and serving diggers who gave evidence against him to the Brereton inquiry. This type of behaviour, if true, seems very vindictive and suggests that he’s got something to hide. On the other hand, it could be a manifestation of mental health problems.

    He also appears to be cognitively functioning quite well as the Brisbane general-manager of Seven West Media albiet he stood down temporarily for this trial.

    I have a couple of mates who suffer PTSD, whose symptoms vary in extent and nature, but one thing’s fairly constant: both go to some lengths to avoid stressful situations, are quite withdrawn, and on their guard at most times.

    Save for a battle zone, I can’t think of a more stressful environment than facing a ten-week trial, cross-examined by experienced counsel, and have who you thought were your mates giving evidence against you. Had he just stared down the allegations of war crimes, he would have in my opinion been far better off. And it’s fair to ask, why did he bother to sue in defamation? I have my thoughts but wouldn’t air them publicly but will suggest that it’s not motivated by money.

    I’m not sure how this trial will turn out, but I think it’s
    not looking too good for him on the basis that 21 diggers he served with are defence witnesses. I’m not sure who his witnesses will be, other than is parents.

    From previous posts of yours, I recall that you served in the Army reserves. You’d be aware therefore of the camaraderie that normally attaches to servicemen and women. Yet, quite a number of those he served with seem to more than dislike him. But to call these people, jealous, envious, motivated by the tall poppy syndrome seems extreme, suggestive of mental health problems.

    As regards DVA, my experience has been very good. In fact, I can’t say a bad word about them, but I do accept that many don’t share my view. And unlike your experience, ex-servicemen I talk to are not enamoured of Roberts-Smith – and that’s putting it mildly.

  6. BW

    You ask very good question in your post from a few hours ago. I will do my best to answer them. Note answers in a second post below, as my general comments are already too long!

    General comments:

    The almost 100 million refugees in our world are refugees for very good reasons – to stay would be worse than to go. It is a “wicked” problem – no easy solutions.

    However, these people are our fellow human beings, and we are obliged by common humanity to help them – unless we are inhuman bastards, like for instance, Tony Abbott (who said that “Jesus would have said it was not everyone’s place to live in Australia”).

    Yes, it will cost money and resources- but the world has this.

    Yes, it will need a concerted international campaign to humanise refugees, and to see them as part of a solution, not as part of a problem. Not easy, but we need a plan and a roadmap, and this is what the world lacks.

    And yes, Australians who are doing badly, living on the street (one of my particular beefs), who are so often indigenous, deserve a better life – I hear this a lot from my Liberal Party aligned friends talking about why we cannot the refugees – but accepting refugees is a different discussion as to why so many of our indigenous and working class people are doing so badly, health-wise, and incarceration-wise.

  7. I read below thoughts in some other article.

    You should really listen to this Bennett guy. If anyone thought Bibi was right wing, they should hear Bennett. He’s openly on the side of settling the West Bank, which the Israelis call “Judea and Samaria.”

    But, there’s a catch. Bennett’s party is the 5th largest party in the house, with just 6% of the vote under the belt. The 5th largest party got the throne with all of 6% of the vote.

    And who are Bennett’s partners? It’s all the left wing parties, even the Arab parties!

    You want me to tell you something that will make you burst out laughing? Apparently, they will rotate the post of Prime Minister. Bennett gets it for now, but in two years, he will have to hand it to the guy who heads the largest party in the coalition. LOL! As if this coalition will last 2 full years…

    So let us try to see what Bennett’s incentives would be here. I don’t know much about Israel. Bennett knows his position is insecure. He needs to do something to raise the profile of his party, which is currently a poor fifth.

    What is Bennett going to do? The natural way for his party to grow would be to eat into the votes of Netanyahu’s Likud Party. For that, he has to show himself as even stronger on national security than Bibi was. So as PM, he has to take the country even farther to the right.

    But, one might wonder, wouldn’t he have to appease his coalition partners so that they keep him in power?

    As it is, Bennett has been offered the position for just 2 years. So what if his government “falls”? There is no alternative government: there will be fresh elections in which he can only gain seats. He remains in office through as many election cycles as needed. On the other hand, if he were to appease his coalition partners, he loses power for sure in 2 years. Because of the peculiar nature of the Israeli system, Bennett is more likely to hold on to power for longer period if his government “falls” than if it does not!

    So Bennett figured out a way quickly to make his left wing partners get angry and withdraw support . That is why he bombed Palestinians for burning balloons.

    The mistake here has been made by the left wing parties. In their desperation to see Netanyahu out, they have gone with someone who is even more to the right. That would not be a problem, generally speaking, because politicians can adjust their ideology to whatever is most convenient. But in this case, Bennett’s interests are exactly the opposite to those of his partners.


    Washington(CNN) Boeing, one of the world’s largest aircraft manufacturers, also is one of the biggest players in the Washington influence game — spending millions to lobby Congress and the executive branch each year.

    Last year, Boeing’s spending on lobbying topped $15.1 million, federal records show. The company ranks No. 10 in lobbying activity in Washington since 1998, according to a tally by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. That falls way behind the big trade groups such as the US Chamber of Commerce and the American Hospital Association, but ahead of some of its competitors for the government’s lucrative defense business, such as Lockheed Martin.

    Boeing has also deployed dozens of lobbyists, many working for outside firms, to help shape government policy.

  9. Ven

    I reckon getting rid of Netanyahou probably allows a re-setting of Israeli politics which is really why they have coalesced.

    Like all politics, it’s what happens next.

  10. Ven
    Yes Bennett is out there ,further right than Netanyahu but there maybe method in the ‘madness’ of the recent clash. Bibi went out screaming how the coalition are a bunch of lily livered bustards that will not keep Israelis ‘safe’ , unlike he, Bibi. The clash may have been an answer to such claims rather than the start of his vision for ‘Greater Israel’. Time will, as they say, tell.

  11. “alfred venisonsays:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 7:51 pm
    a sobering review of the scomo/bojo fta by pat ranald. -a.v.

    I believe news agencies reported that it is an inprinciple agreement. Maybe that is the reason we do not know much about this trade agreement.
    Do you remember the Asia Pacific Trade deal which included all main Asia Pacific countries except China and US and developed and finalised by Obama Admin and withdrawn by Trump. We know very little about that trade agreement till now.

  12. fred,

    I saw earlier that LNP MP Katie Allen said today’s announcement was a good start.

    I’m guessing this will be a gradual fold by the Government.

    There are two ways to do this.

    1. Cut your losses and capitulate.
    2. Die by a 1000 media stories.

    My guess is that the Government still think they can turn this in to an Electoral advantage.

  13. porotisays:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 8:18 pm
    Yes Bennett is out there ,further right than Netanyahu but there maybe method in the ‘madness’ of the recent clash. Bibi went out screaming how the coalition are a bunch of lily livered bustards that will not keep Israelis ‘safe’ , unlike he, Bibi. The clash may have been an answer to such claims rather than the start of his vision for ‘Greater Israel’. Time will, as they say, tell.

    Bennett won the confidence vote 60-59 with one Arab member abstaining.
    Don’t you think the Arab members of the Bennett coalition government will be angry with the bombing of Palestinians after he came to power?

  14. All that needs to happen is the legal case relating to the daughter be resolved – that she isn’t a refugee just like the rest of her family and then they will be deported. End of story.

    If the people who like them want to then sponsor their legal migration to Australia then good luck to them.

  15. Buce,

    You’re like an umpire/ref on PB.

    You know all the rules. But don’t know how to play the game.

    Australian politics is issue based. The Libs will find a way to ease themselves in to a more acceptable solution.

  16. Ven : ranald, now at sydney uni., has been studying the fta phenomenon since the 1990s, when she was a researcher at the cpsu. she ties the asia-pacific fta you refer to to this one. -a.v.

    it will take at least a month to be finalised and signed, and only after the signing will the Australian public see the full text and a parliamentary committee be given the right to inquire into it but not change it.
    Like the CPTPP, the Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement is likely to have as many as 30 chapters, some of which restrict the ability of governments to regulate in fields including medicines, essential services and data privacy.
    Unless the text is released before it is signed, we won’t know whether ISDS and longer medicine monopolies are part of the deal.

    The Australian government should release the text for public scrutiny and independent assessment of its costs and benefits before it is signed, so that we are able to see what is being traded away before it’s too late.

  17. Ven
    Oh indeed but perhaps the ‘retaliation’ was more show than go and not so ‘angrifying’ for the Arab members. Bennett may have preserving the coalition as a priority or he may let his inner rwnj run free, we shall see.

  18. Airships. Especially for flying of freight. They don’t need big runways, can carry very large items, and can be solar powered.

    They may also have a role in shorter passenger journeys where rail options do not exist. Could be great for regional areas.

    They don’t fly too well at night.

  19. Lizziesays:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 7:49 pm
    D N

    I’m afraid you’re right. The same-same theme used for attack has been very successful and Labor doesn’t seem able to fight it.

    Yes, and that is because in many important areas it is the truth of the matter.

    Via Market Forces – Fossil Fuel industry donations are entirely bipartisan

    Despite the never ending inane rhetoric from various tragic Laborite bludgers here, Labor have just supported the LNP in giving more public money and support to opening up the Beetaloo basin and other fossil fuel projects

    In NSW it was really the ALP that started all the CSG shit and the likes of Obeid are indeed the original bastards who tried to win riches for themselves from resource exploitation entirely with disregard for the community or land and environment

    Consider also pokies, casinos and other industries that donate, that is buy political influence in Lib and Lab parties

    No-one including these companies really believes their donations don’t give them returns and there is a well documented recycling of various politicians from both Lib and Lab for various well payed sinecures and lobbying positions, right up until today

  20. The great trade agreement has already become a one day wonder. The Project interviewed a commentator who said it would have an effect on our exports – something like 0.00002%.

    Anyway, Morrison is now in Paris talking to Macron about the supercalifragilisticexpialidocious submarine deal.

  21. boerwar @ #341 Wednesday, June 16th, 2021 – 5:54 pm

    One of my uncles was a tug boat skipper out of Rotterdam.
    One of my cousins is an engineer on a customs boat.

    That’s interesting. Well worth a visit (we’ve friends there). It’s fascinating – all but blown off the map WW2, it’s still a huge port (third biggest I think) as your link details. It was also the home of the Holland America Line, which transported vast numbers to and from Nth America up until air travel got the upper hand., and was latterly sold to Carnival Cruises. There’s a keen young population, the ‘Not Amsterdammers’, and it has excellent cultural credentials, a very well regarded orchestra, and if for nothing else, is a short trip to the UNESCO Kinderdijk for a beautiful picturesque (and a bit chilly) trip through the canals and by the windmills and a backgrounding on keeping the water out of the Netherlands.

  22. Simon Katich
    What gas do you reckon for teh airships ? Helium would waste what is going to be a scarce resource while hydrogen has its own ‘exciting’ problems.

  23. citizen at 8:49 pm

    The great trade agreement has already become a one day wonder. The Project interviewed a commentator who said it would have an effect on our exports – something like 0.00002%.

    No wonder BoJo was all smiles. The UK got a way better deal, a yuge 0.02% increase in GDP over 15 years 🙂

  24. C@tmomma @ #353 Wednesday, June 16th, 2021 – 6:16 pm

    guytaur @ #349 Wednesday, June 16th, 2021 – 6:13 pm

    @brucehawker tweets

    In NSW an unvaccinated frontline worker in his 60s has contracted Covid. Meanwhile in the UK, 20 year olds are now eligible to be vaccinated. @ScottMorrisonMP has really messed up the vaccine rollout.

    I just do not get how a guy whose job it was to drive the bus for international cabin crews was unvaccinated still? Either due to his own complacency, or the lackadaisical attitude of his employer to their staff?

    Or in an isolated compartment, preferably. Like a London cabbie, ffs.

  25. Buce, sponsoring is prohibitively expensive and comes out of the fixed quota intake rather than additional to it.

    I believe the program in Canada is different in these regards and thus works well and has broad support. They also allow communities to sponsor – not just individuals or businesses

  26. the fta locks in a rules based system that advantages corporations over nation states & limits what our country can do in the way of environmental regulation, consumer protection legislation, and ensuring the continuing supply of cheap safe pharmaceuticals certified by *our* regulators. in light of this, the volumes of trade in one direction or the other pale into insignificance. -a.v.

  27. Hungary is a lesson for the woke left who thinks Biden has made the world all progressive.

    Both the Hungarian government and woke left are as stupid as each other.

  28. poroti says:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 8:50 pm
    Simon Katich
    What gas do you reckon for teh airships ? Helium would waste what is going to be a scarce resource while hydrogen has its own ‘exciting’ problems.

    Perhaps hot air from the hot air generator?

  29. Helium would be preferred poroti. For some reason it is acceptable to have explosive fuels on jet planes but not a good look on a zeppelin.

  30. From Quoll’s post. So Labor received $477,930 in donations from fossil fuel companies; the Tories a similar amount. Big deal. In the scheme of things, it’s a drop in the ocean relative to the amount Labor gets in public funding, circa $20m; the Tories around $23m.

    In 2018 ‘the West Australian Greens convener Chilla Bulbeck donated almost $600,000 of her inheritance to the Greens… making her Australia’s largest individual political donor.’ Is anyone saying she expected a return on her donation?

  31. Do the new airships need to be topped up with gas?

    Hydrogen makes more sense wrt price and lightness and will generate more clicks when it goes wrong.

  32. Mavis says:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 9:12 pm

    Yes, she is expecting the Greens to pursue policy positions that she agrees with.

  33. $3 Million divided by 300 = $10 000

    Doesn’t sound so outrageous when you put it that way. To be on call even if you are on holiday.

  34. The reaction to the WA Police using the COVID App to trace criminals has been interesting after the WA ALP government had assured us that it would only be used for COVID tracing and nothing else and then doing nothing and not telling WA voters for months after they knew what WA Police we’re up to.

  35. Do the new airships need to be topped up with gas?

    Hydrogen makes more sense wrt price and lightness and will generate more clicks when it goes wrong.

    Modern membranes are probably less leaky than the Hindenburg – but the same “things that make you go ‘boom'” considerations apply.

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