Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10

Another poll finds Scott Morrison’s personal ratings on a downward trajectory, but still very little in it on voting intention.

The Age/Herald yesterday brought us the third result in its monthly federal polling series from Resolve Strategic, which had the Coalition on 40% (up one), Labor on 36% (up one), the Greens on 10% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (up one). This series doesn’t provide a published two-party result, but based on the last election this suggests a Labor lead of 50.5-49.5, down from around 51-49 last time. Scott Morrison has taken a hit on his personal ratings, down five on approval to 48% and up two on disapproval to 40%, while Anthony Albanese is down a point on both, to 31% and 44% respectively. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 46-23, unchanged in magnitude from 48-25 last time.

Full results from the poll, which was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1600, can be viewed here. This includes the poll’s usual results for leader attributes and best party to handle various issues, as well as breakdowns for all major questions by region and gender. After last month’s poll unusually found Labor doing better in New South Wales than Victoria, this result reverts to normal. The pollster has also been up and down in its gender breakdowns, having found Labor doing better among women in the second poll a month ago, but little gender gap in the first poll and the third.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,521 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10”

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  1. NSW Health is investigating the source of a COVID-19 case in the Radisson Blu quarantine hotel in Sydney which has an identical viral sequence to two cases who were staying in an adjacent room.

    The source seems pretty obvious… I assume they’re actually investigating the mode of transmission.

  8. The Australia UK trade agreement is actually an agreement to reach an agreement in future.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/15/australian-producers-to-gradually-gain-tariff-free-access-to-british-markets-under-free-trade-deal?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    And Keith Pitt wants fossil fuel companies to quantify their contribution to the Australian economy. ABS already does this and it is shrinking.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/16/australian-resources-minister-attacks-green-activists-for-trying-to-cripple-fossil-fuel-companies

    Have a good day all.

  9. ‘Nothing off limits’: offshore gas and oil exploration area 5km from Twelve Apostles

    Conservationists call for ‘urgent rethink’ after Australian government announces 21 offshore exploration areas

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/15/nothing-off-limits-offshore-gas-and-oil-exploration-area-5km-from-twelve-apostles

    2021 release area maps
    https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/energy/province-sedimentary-basin-geology/petroleum/acreagerelease/subbasins

  11. This article is about a trio of Liberals trying to find a way to stop the housing price spiral merry-go-round (I can smell an election in the air) and below is the comment I submitted to the article:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-mps-suggest-radical-plans-to-tackle-housing-affordability-crisis-20210615-p58166.html#comments

    I can smell an election in the air. And these noble sentiments will disappear after it. Or be used as an artifice to attack the tax system to make it more inequitable under the guise of making housing more affordable, as have most of the recent Morrison government Housing policies.

    Let me see, Tim Wilson wants to erode Superannuation in order to allow people to buy into the Property Market. Which will only fuel property inflation, not solve it. It sounds like a great idea on its surface, until you actually look into it.

    John Alexander’s proposal of a dedicated loss limit on Investment properties is the only one that is sensible.

    Not one of them proposes the large Superannuation Funds getting into the Housing market by underwriting Affordable or Social Housing. A policy that would make a real difference. Too much like ‘Socialism’ to the Liberals I guess. Which it isn’t but that has become a dirty word and a convenient stick to bash Labor with, so is out of the question.

    Hopefully, therefore, the electorate will respond to a great communicator who finds a way to convince them to get off this property price spiral merry-go-round. Housing is getting to look like Dutch Tulips!

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    David Crowe reports that a new Nine survey shows most Australians want the federal government to cut greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050 but do not want a carbon price as part of the plan, as Prime Minister Scott Morrison holds out against renewed global calls to set the target.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-want-australia-to-set-a-net-zero-2050-emissions-target-but-no-carbon-tax-20210615-p5813w.html
    But Nick O’Malley says that despite Morrison’s popular determination to tackle climate change with “technology not taxes”, the decision might not long remain in Australian hands if the G7 leaders’ statement from the weekend meeting in Cornwall is anything to go by.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/should-we-pay-a-carbon-tax-to-our-own-government-or-to-someone-else-s-20210615-p5819q.html
    Here comes the renewables spend, despite Morrison, declares Michael Pascoe.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/06/16/renewables-investment-michael-pascoe/
    Shane Wright and Jennifer Duke tell us that some Liberal MPs are demanding the federal government consider radical plans to bring the runaway housing market under control after new figures showed the value of the nation’s homes soared by a record $450 billion in three months.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-mps-suggest-radical-plans-to-tackle-housing-affordability-crisis-20210615-p58166.html
    Blink and the boats will restart the Government says. But that is nonsense proclaims Abul Rizvi.
    https://johnmenadue.com/abul-rizvi-blink-and-the-boats-will-restart-the-government-says-but-that-is-nonsense/
    The end of JobKeeper wasn’t a blip. It might have cost nearly 100,000 jobs, opines Peter Martin.
    https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-jobkeeper-wasnt-a-blip-it-might-have-cost-nearly-100-000-jobs-162744
    In an interesting contribution, Paul Begley argues that Scott Morrison gained power through a lack of due diligence.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/scott-morrison-gained-power-through-a-lack-of-due-diligence,15191
    Professor David Hayward explains what happens when we socialise the losses from housing policy while privatising the gains.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/private-landlords-are-losing-billions-should-we-keep-picking-up-the-tab-20210615-p58154.html
    As long as we accept injustices perpetrated by the Morrison Government, claiming “this is not we are” is disingenuous at best, writes Dr Jennifer Wilson who uses the Robodebt scandal as a prime example.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/robodebt-and-other-morrison-government-injustices-thats-who-we-are-now,15190
    In quite a good read, John Lord makes a proposition for Albanese to make the next election all about Morrison, a bit similar to Biden’s campaign.
    https://theaimn.com/whats-it-all-about-albo-morrison-or-you/
    With the house price boom showing few signs of cooling, it may soon be time for regulators to place restrictions on mortgage lending, writes Clancy Yeates.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowing/return-of-property-investors-raises-questions-for-regulators-20210610-p57zvn.html
    The treatment of Biloela’s Murugappan family shows cruelty never works, says author Steve Biddulth.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-treatment-of-biloela-s-murugappan-family-shows-cruelty-never-works-20210615-p5816z.html
    Rachel Clun reports that two federal ministers have backed a One Nation motion condemning the use of medical treatment for transgender children in a vote that split the Coalition. The proposition was defeated 35 to 23 in the Senate in a conscience vote.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/two-federal-ministers-back-one-nation-motion-calling-for-wait-and-see-treatment-for-transgender-children-20210615-p581ah.html
    Australian eSafety Commissioner, Julie Inman, argues that we need to ensure online safety before big tech profits.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-need-to-ensure-online-safety-before-big-tech-profits-20210615-p58123.html
    Bevan Shields writes that when Scott Morrison stood in a Cornwall churchyard a few days ago and said he was prepared to wait for the right trade deal with Britain rather than a rushed one, he wasn’t bluffing. Shields says Johnson needed trade deal a lot more than Morrison.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/johnson-needed-trade-deal-a-lot-more-than-morrison-20210615-p5810p.html
    Not perfect but the Australia-UK free trade deal is the real business, says Greg Sheridan.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/not-perfect-but-the-australiauk-free-trade-deal-is-the-real-business/news-story/e2267caca0de5fbaf931b0ebe6a30fbe
    Caleb Bond explains how the Prime Minister’s own party is flatly denying the memberships of people who share his religion. He is defending the Pentecostal push.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/caleb-bond-the-prime-ministers-own-party-is-flatly-denying-the-memberships-of-people-who-share-his-religion/news-story/1ccfe0c1afd8254c62d2b4ea728ac000
    Australia’s resources minister, Keith Pitt, is urging oil and gas producers to turn the “spotlight” on environmental groups campaigning against an expansion of the fossil fuel industry on climate change grounds, writes Katherine Murphy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/16/australian-resources-minister-attacks-green-activists-for-trying-to-cripple-fossil-fuel-companies
    Michaela Whitbourn reports that Ben Roberts-Smith has told a court that he hired a private investigator to follow a woman with whom he had been having a relationship to check whether she had an abortion because he suspected she was lying about being pregnant. Nice.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/roberts-smith-hired-investigator-to-check-woman-was-having-an-abortion-20210615-p5818t.html
    Australia must eventually face reality: live with Covid or become a hermit nation, argues infectious diseases physician Peter Collignon.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/15/australia-must-eventually-face-reality-live-with-covid-or-become-a-hermit-nation
    A deeply flawed and potentially corrupt land purchase by the New South Wales government has prompted an investigation of 20 similar property acquisitions, an inquiry has heard. Christopher Knaus reports that a NSW parliamentary inquiry is currently probing the state government’s purchase of a contaminated block of land in the Sydney suburb of Camellia for $53.5m, just months after it was purchased at a fraction of the cost by property developer Billbergia.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/15/potentially-corrupt-nsw-government-land-purchase-prompts-inquiry-into-20-similar-deals
    In neglecting the National Archives, the Morrison government turns its back on the future, complains professor of politics, Judith Brett.
    https://theconversation.com/in-neglecting-the-national-archives-the-morrison-government-turns-its-back-on-the-future-162599
    Ouch!! Former high-flying Dick Smith executive Michael Potts has been ordered to pay $43m plus interest to National Australia Bank after the NSW Supreme Court found he had engaged in misleading and deceptive conduct during negotiations for a loan facility.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/retail/court-orders-exdick-smith-exec-to-pay-nab-43m/news-story/2153648bcbb8f0e8eaf99f2f79dc9514
    Tom McIlroy tells us that Labor frontbenchers Jim Chalmers and Chris Bowen have demanded Scott Morrison explain his links to Australians pushing the QAnon conspiracy theory, claiming they pose a national security risk.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-claims-national-security-risk-over-pm-s-friend-s-qanon-ties-20210615-p58169
    Julie Szego reckons we should learn how to tolerate idiots like QAnon.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/skipping-the-q-how-to-handle-your-conspiracy-loving-friends-20210615-p5814c.html
    The Ibrahims vs The Daily Telegraph in a defamation case. A perfect match!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/ibrahim-s-son-should-get-substantial-damages-in-defamation-case-court-told-20210615-p581ao.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe


    Peter Broelman

    Andrew Dyson

    Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding




    John Shakespeare

    Simon Letch

    Fiona Katauskas

    Mark Knight

    John Spooner does his job for News Ltd

    From the US










  13. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 6:54 am
    I think people are slowly starting to wake up to the value of having a federal Labor government.
    ”
    Why so?

  15. The housing market is a bit like the energy market. In both cases there is so much money and power, and so many Coalition donors, invested in the status quo that would bitterly oppose any measures that would actually address either housing affordability or greenhouse emissions. So in each case a Coalition Government tinkers around the edges, taking care not to harm their constituencies’ interests.

  16. ”
    Socratessays:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 7:17 am
    The Australia UK trade agreement is actually an agreement to reach an agreement in future.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/15/australian-producers-to-gradually-gain-tariff-free-access-to-british-markets-under-free-trade-deal?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
    ”

    But but but Fiona Simson on ABC Breakfast said that it is the best thing to happen to Ozzie farmers struggling from China blockade of our goods. (And implied that it is the best thing to happen after sliced bread 🙂 )
    And it was win- win for both Ozzie and British farmers.
    AFR went to Lady Ga Ga to sing about it. 🙂
    Rumour has it that LNP people are ecstatic because Morrison proved he is the greatest deal maker politician this country has produced because he got a Trade deal. 🙂

  18. Caleb Bond explains how the Prime Minister’s own party is flatly denying the memberships of people who share his religion. He is defending the Pentecostal push.

    OMG Caleb lives ! He provided plenty of lols back in the day when he was Rupert’s fave teen.
    .
    The Strange World of an Australian Teenage Conservative Political Commentator

    16-year-old Caleb Bond collects fountain pens and considers his “misguided youth” a brief period when he supported Kevin Rudd.

    A self-described “conservative with a splash of libertarianism,” he regularly writes about Australian current affairs for The Daily Telegraph and The Advertiser in his native Adelaide. He also lends his views to radio news shows, and last year Miranda Devine interviewed him on 2GB. They’re friends now.
    .
    https://www.vice.com/en/article/dp55pm/the-strange-world-of-a-teenage-conservative-political-commentator

  19. fifth column?

    a group within a country at war who are sympathetic to or working for its enemies.
    __________________________________________
    I can think of several Bludgers who are fifth columnists for Comrade Xi. I count only those whose automatic responses is not a balanced assessment of all comers against a discernible set of measures, but to downplay China’s behaviours and to excoriate the West’s behaviours.

    That leaves ‘war’. ‘War’ is a plastic concept these days. It is not all kinetic war. There is no doubt that China is engaging in a trade war against Australia. Some would argue that is also engaging in a grey war.

  20. Victoria records three new cases of COVID-19

    The state recorded five cases of coronavirus yesterday, two of which we already knew about. So that means three brand new cases.

    Victoria’s health department says those three new cases are linked to existing outbreaks.

    An additional three cases were detected in hotel quarantine. That’s off the back of 17,538 tests.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-southbank-apartment-covid-cluster-grows-in-melbourne-ben-roberts-smith-trial-continues-20210615-p5819i.html

  21. The Tamil family has lost 7 court cases including in the High Court. I would like to know which other laws they are going to not follow if they are given permission to remain? Which other laws won’t suit them?

  22. Oh, the humanity.

    Apparently Roberts-Smith broke up with his girlfriend at an airport and she then went to his wife and told her all about it…

    Why do bad things happen to good people?

  23. J
    The notion that you can replace 1.4 billion fossil cars with 1.4 billion EVs without a substantial hit to the environment was always fanciful.

  29. Trump is making people believe ‘insane things’ — and it’s driving them to violence: Ex-prosecutor Preet Bharara

    On CNN Tuesday, after new reporting on the DOJ’s reaction to former President Donald Trump’s demands to investigate his voter fraud conspiracy theories, former Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara outlined the real harm done by the former president’s behavior.

    “You know, as you say, it is incredible to see how top Department of Justice officials reacted, calling it ‘pure insanity,'” reported anchor Wolf Blitzer. “But the former president and his supporters have embraced this insanity. How dangerous is that?”

    It is still incredibly dangerous because people that believe insane things can perpetuate fraud on other folks. People believe insane things, the big lie, in particular, engage in insurrections like Jan. 6th, that could happen again. Continued perpetuation of the big lie fueled by other bigger lies, including insane stories about Italian satellites changing votes in the United States of America, for which there’s no evidence that any reasonable person would not believe there’s evidence in favor of, that causes people to engage in anti-democratic behavior.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/trump-conspiracies-insane-lead-violence/

  30. C@t

    Exactly right regarding the housing market.

    The fiberals are paying lip service. Scotty from Marketing no doubt had an input.

    It’s ridiculous that a decrepit old house in the suburbs costs over 1 million these days.

    Like times gone past, people will be awaiting inheritances to be able to afford their own abode

  31. Michael Pascoe brings good news re renewables investment and how federal Govt have dropped the ball.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/06/16/renewables-investment-michael-pascoe/

    Never mind the Morrison government’s fossil-friendly energy policy, Australia is embarking on a multibillion-dollar surge in renewables investment anyway.

    Individuals, corporations, market forces and state government policies are leading where the federal government doesn’t go. …

  32. Hmmm, Greens/ Liebor alliance – COALition of LyingN(C)P, and the minor parties/ independents, how very 2010?
    Wuflu or not, surprised about the coalition’s numbers in Resolve Strategic.

    Meanwhile, Wuflu is just a dry run, “NATO called climate change a “threat multiplier” to the alliance’s security”, https://catallaxyfiles.com/2021/06/16/the-western-worlds-wealth-busting-corporatist-conspiracy-against-hydrocarbons/, https://www.spectator.com.au/2021/06/the-western-worlds-elites-conspire-to-outlaw-cheap-energy/ …

    And there’s plenty left, red carpet, let them eat cake, moments in terms of societal inequality/ inequity.

    … besides powershift. One Pommy strike group, well …

  33. Meanwhile covid is still hanging around here in Melbourne. An apartment complex has seen infection spread between people who live in the complex but in separate areas. Appears they have picked up virus when passing each other in communal areas.

    Also testing rates continue to trend right down.

  34. Seriously, wouldn’t you question whether or not you were hanging out with the right kind of people when the guy next to you is half naked and wearing buffalo horns?

  35. phoenixRED at 8:52 am

    Trump is making people believe ‘insane things’ — and it’s driving them to violence:

    Brought to mind Dubya and Tony Blah and the invasion of Iraq 😉

    Bush is making people believe ‘insane things’ — and it’s driving them to violence:

  36. ‘zoomster says:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 8:59 am

    Seriously, wouldn’t you question whether or not you were hanging out with the right kind of people when the guy next to you is half naked and wearing buffalo horns?’
    ________________________________________________
    So, z, are you a closet buffalophobe?

  39. It appears that NSW health is concerned that transmission occurred in HQ, and despite them all being moved, those who remained and since left HQ, may have been exposed.

    NSW Health says transmission may have occurred on the flight, on transport from the airport to the hotel, in the lobby of the hotel, or while in quarantine.
    ………………

    Authorities have now contacted other returned travellers who have since been discharged from level four of the same hotel and have asked them to isolate and get tested.

  40. From the UK:






    Why does no news outlet in this country mention that the UK has more or less been in continuous restrictions since September and lockdown since November last year and that their Roadmap out is being constantly pushed back???

  41. If you are truly interested in reading about insane things that will almost certainly drive people to violence then read almost any edition of the Global Times.

    Here’s an editorial taster from today’s edition. The editorials are de facto official Chinese Government statements. One of the entertaining things to do with your spare time is to study the language in the GT in order to spot any projection. Aficionados will particularly appreciate the use of ‘salami slicing’ in this article. This term is routinely applied to China’s enemies in the GT. It is never applied to China. Those who appreciate insanity would appreciate the way in which the reverse ferret has been applied to who invaded whom.

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202106/1226236.shtml

  42. Bucephalus @ #21 Wednesday, June 16th, 2021 – 6:38 am

    The Tamil family has lost 7 court cases including in the High Court. I would like to know which other laws they are going to not follow if they are given permission to remain? Which other laws won’t suit them?

    Well considering there is a court injunction at the moment forbidding the Government from removing them from Australia, I’d say they are well within the law.

    The interesting part of this is that Xmas Is only happened because the Government tried to sneak them out of Australia before the court could make this ruling.

    They failed and had to land in Darwin, so instead of returning them to Melbourne the Government chose to detain them on Xmas Is at a huge additional expense.

    I imagine the Government thought holding them on Xmas Is was clever as it would allow them to more quickly leave Australia at the next possible opportunity before those inconvenient courts could intervene.

  43. I know I’m showing extreme prejudice towards Morrison (!), but I see he’s been to Jamaica Inn, and also no doubt making a big deal of his convict ancestor while standing in a Cornish churchyard. Jamaica Inn was not far in Ozzie miles from our Cornish farm, and I’m repelled by the thought of him polluting the air there. So sue me.
    (I’m not actually Cornish, I was born in Devon.)

  45. Patrick Gorman MP
    @PatrickGormanMP
    ·
    17m
    The Julie Bishop Barbie doll comes with three interchangeable Liberal leaders.

  46. BiTB

    “The interesting part of this is that Xmas Is only happened because the Government tried to sneak them out of Australia before the court could make this ruling”

    I am not sure this is right

  47. I bet not all the people who support the government’s ‘deterrence’ policy don’t realise this.

    Over the past 6-7 years, the Government has presided over the biggest labour trafficking scam and abuse of Australia’s asylum system in our history.

    As a result of that scam, there are currently over 27,000 unsuccessful asylum seekers living in the community – this number will rise significantly as more of the huge backlog of applications are processed.

    Legally, these people are in the same position as the Biloela family yet these unsuccessful asylum seekers have not had a team of ABF officers fly to a remote Queensland town to pick them up and put them into detention?

    Why not? The prime reason is that these people arrived by aeroplane while the current Government was in power and not by boat while the Rudd Government was in power.

    If the template of how the Biloela family has been managed was to be applied to the 27,000 unsuccessful asylum seekers in the community, just imagine the cost to the taxpayer.

    https://johnmenadue.com/abul-rizvi-blink-and-the-boats-will-restart-the-government-says-but-that-is-nonsense/

  48. boerwar @ #41 Wednesday, June 16th, 2021 – 9:12 am

    If you are truly interested in reading about insane things that will almost certainly drive people to violence then read almost any edition of the Global Times.

    We don’t need to – we have you to do it for us.

    Just like BB listening to 2GB so that the rest of us don’t have to.

    Mind you, look what that did to BB.

  50. Shellbell @ #46 Wednesday, June 16th, 2021 – 7:31 am

    BiTB

    “The interesting part of this is that Xmas Is only happened because the Government tried to sneak them out of Australia before the court could make this ruling”

    I am not sure this is right

    According to this timeline, the injunction was issued while the plane was in the air and it was forced to land in Darwin.

    An attempt to deport the couple, and their Australian-born children, on 29 August 2019 was prevented by an injunction lodged by the solicitors while the plane taking the family to Sri Lanka was in mid-air. This injunction was granted as the younger child had not yet been assessed for a protection visa. The injunction forced the plane to land in Darwin. The family were then taken to Christmas Island Immigration Reception and Processing Centre.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murugappan_family_asylum_claims

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